Doomsday Minus Twelve

The Barack Obama countdown to saving the American economy continues today, this time with his warning, "A bad situation could become dramatically worse."

In what the transition team describes as a major speech at George Mason University this morning, the President-Elect says:

"I don’t believe it’s too late to change course, but it will be if we don’t take dramatic action as soon as possible. If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. The unemployment rate could reach double digits. Our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity, which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four. We could lose a generation of potential and promise, as more young Americans are forced to forgo dreams of college or the chance to train for the jobs of the future. And our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and standing in the world."

On Day One minus twelve, Obama is rallying public support for the coming Congressional battle to deploy up to $1 trillion more to stop the economic slide.

Yesterday, Democratic legislators were warned by what the New York Times calls "a startling range of name-brand economists...to think more boldly than ever before."

Afterward, the "shell-shocked" chairman of the House Budget Committee, Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, told a reporter, “The thing I wanted to ask was if there was some limit which we should be wary of? Is there some limit in terms of how much borrowing and debt creation we should take on?”

The answer to his unspoken question seems to be no, but Congressional Republicans are scrambling to find their role in the process as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi predicts a bill by the middle of next month and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell promises "to make certain that any dollar spent to stimulate the economy will in fact achieve that outcome and produce jobs and opportunity."

After years of torpor on Capitol Hill, it's beginning to look like one of those speeded-up silent films with everyone racing around to get something done. It will be fascinating to hear what comes out after January 20th when they add the sound.

Trillion-Dollar Hard Times

In the run-up to what had better be the most inspiring inaugural address ever, Barack Obama keeps breaking bad news about the economy, yesterday warning of "trillion-dollar deficits for years to come."

(Today the Congressional Budget Office upped the ante by estimating a $1.2 trillion shortfall for 2009.)

During his "media availability" yesterday, the President-Elect continued his running commentary on the evolution of the stimulus package he will present to Congress, disclosing it will be free of earmarks, thereby subsuming all of John McCain's economic policy during the campaign into a throwaway line.

Even before he takes the oath, Obama is bringing what Peggy Noonan calls the "bright promise" of "a certain freshness to the proceedings in Washington" by confiding in the American people about what he is learning and how he is going about becoming The Decider. We have traded in the Wizard of Oz for an FDR-like president of fireside chats.

That the news is all terrifying up to now only underscores the need for the new transparency. The subtext of our situation is a fight against panic, and Obama seems to understand that what would feed fears most is keeping us in the dark.

So keep bringing on the trillion-dollar bad news and talk to us about it like grownups. It may not keep us from wanting to hide under the covers, but it's comforting to know that our new president won't be there with us.

Walking the President-in-Waiting Walk

With all the demurrals about one president at a time, what Barack Obama said and didn't say today will be closely parsed by markets, publics and political leaders everywhere.

His appearance, flanked by a team of economic advisors, was meant to show a nervous world that he is on the case, ready to move on January 20th and as involved as he can be in the role of President-Elect.

"(A)s we monitor and address these immediate economic challenges," he said, "we will be moving forward in laying out a set of policies that will grow our middle class and strengthen our economy in the long term. We cannot afford to wait on moving forward on the key priorities that I identified during the campaign, including clean energy, health care, education, and tax relief for middle-class families.

"My transition team will be working on each of these priorities in the weeks ahead, and I intend to reconvene this advisory board to discuss the best ideas for responding to these immediate problems."

But Obama made it clear he favors "a stimulus package passed, either before or after inauguration...sooner rather than later,” if not in the lame-duck Congressional session, as soon as he takes office, and he called for an extension of unemployment benefits.

In the minuet between now and then, the President-in-Waiting is deferring to the one in the White House but making it clear he is ready to take new steps on his own. A worried world clearly would like to see the dance speeded up.