Where are the Student Protests today? Vol. 2

It was May 21st, 2005 when I wrote a Blog post titled, "Where are the Student Protests Today?". It has taken this long before some have finally demonstrated. This is the 99% Occupy Wall Street movement. Here is what I wrote back in 2005:

"As we approach June 4th , the anniversary of Tiananmen Square, and I reflect on our own history of student protests, it got me to wonder where are today's student protesters, as certainly there are many disturbing trends in America today, threatening the very fabric of our democracy as we search for bipartisanship in Congress and a more humble America in our rhetoric abroad and at home. But we still seem very arrogant as a nation with little understanding of the very cultures we are trying to change. I am not talking about Iraq here. I am talking about the "Divided" States of America, that's right, the good ole D.S.A., one nation, (partly) under God, very divisible, with liberty (until we can change those Senate Rules), and justice for (a few).

There was once a time of idealism, of standing up and being taken seriously by society, a conscience for all of us. This was the time of Student protests. Students protested the Vietnam war, the May 4th, 1970 Kent State shootings, Tiananmen Square and support for democracy in China, the outrage at the Chinese Government’s reaction to the protests and some recent protests of the Iraq war in selective cities.

As a nation, we have a lot to be angry about with our government. First there was the misleading 'intelligence' of the lead up to the Iraq invasion and then the letters of former White House General Counsel and current Attorney General, Roberto Gonzales, regarding new interpretations of what is and what is not torture. Then the pronouncements by our President that certain prisoners would not necessarily be treated in a manner consistent with the Geneva Convention. Add to this more recent assertion about additional abuse in Guantanamo and the shameless deceit to get recruits on High School campuses to enlist, and you wonder what it takes to get Student protesters engaged again. There have been some protests of the Iraq war but they fade away quickly. What captures the focus and attention of the bulk of our students today? Could it be survival, as the job market still looks bleak? Or is it just apathy? What do you think? I don’t think they care much about what the Senate is proposing in its Nuclear Option to end the filibuster and allow judicial nominations through who by the minority see as extreme in their views. Stay tuned."

I think this has merit today as well. Those brave students at UC Davis who were pepper sprayed for no reason other than they were protesting. Others on Wall Street protest as they have seen what they have gained over their lifetimes gone because of the greed on Wall Street and the Banks. Let's be thankful that the conscience of some is alive and full this Thanksgiving, even though their stomachs may be empty. Bless the 99% and be thankful for their voice and their courage. They are the best of what has made America great. Back in 2005, way before the Sub Prime problem, there was a jobs crisis (during the Bush years), but many have forgotten that. Many ill informed have blamed President Obama. Not me.

Along with your dinner today, which is a blessing in itself, maybe this will give you some extra food for thought.

Summary of Blog statistics for the past 6 years

I have been writing a Blog now since May of 2005. In that time, I have written over 1650 Blog posts and had a total of 80,000 Visitors to my site who read 125,000 pages in total. I'm someone who never wrote anything other than an occasional letter to the editor, because I considered myself not to be a writer. So much for limiting self perceptions.

I wrote about politics for the first several years years exclusively, then a mix of financial posts and finally some stock market analysis these recent years.

Thanks all of you for visiting this site. I hope you got what you came for. I got what I wanted out of doing this, the joy of self expression and the uncensored views I hold about the subject matters i have chosen to write about.

Summary of this week in the stock market and where we go from here. (UPDATE)

At the end of this very volatile week in the stock market, with days up and down in a 500 points range, many are wondering whether they should sell or buy stocks. This is compounded by the facts that we are in an indecisive period right now and therefore predicting market direction is even more difficult in the short term. I have said I believe we are headed lower in the next 6-12 months, but I can't tell you when we drop further from here. We had closed below the 11,000 level this week on Monday and Wednesday, but on Thursday and Friday we closed above, closing at 11,269. I had said in my previous posts there was going to be a fight at the 11,000 level once we had broken below the 11,500 level. So, in fact, we did and, this testing of 11,000 level, may not be complete.

In the below chart, of the Dow over a 5 year period, I have added some red arrows to signify many of the significant drops in the Dow value followed by flat indecision periods, identified with blue flat lines. The purpose was to show that there is a period of time after a drop where the direction is uncertain. We are now in that period. As you can see below, it can last for about a month or so. Other factors are at play.

The news will dictate in which direction we go, and I think one could build a very strong case that markets will go down further. For example, this most recent major drop was precipitated by 2 events. The first was the concern over Italy and its debt problems and whether they were going to default, because they are such a large economy, they can't really be bailed out unless the EU started printing money like our Fed did. The second concern was from the Debt Ceiling deadline and the politics involved in almost defaulting here. This precipitated the S&P to downgrade the US from AAA to AA+ rating. Then the market tanked.

We are now in the stage where we have the Congress appointing a special committee to work out details to come to an agreement on where further cuts are going to come from. They must do this by Nov. 23rd. If they can agree on a package, there is no guarantee it will be approved by both Houses of Congress, because there will be no Amendments aloud. It will face an up or down vote.

Also, we have the 2012 Budget which must be approved by Congress by Oct. 1st. All this with the 2012 Presidential election in the background. The chances of having bipartisanship is nearly zero. That is why I see the market going down a lot more from here. As the expression goes, it is all baked in the cake. Wish it weren't so, but it is the stark reality we face. And the Fed has signaled they aren't going to do much more given the economy looks so weak. They said they will keep existing rates through until 2013, which is an unprecedented move on their part.

It took us 2 1/2 years to climb out from the low of 6,500 on the Dow. I believe it will only take a year to go down and retest that low, given the state of politics and the weakness in the Global economy, with many debt laden countries. This will also produce social unrest at levels we have not seen in my lifetime. We are starting to see the early stages of this now.

UPDATE: Monday 5:35am PST.

The Empire Manufacturing Index data was released at 5:30am this morning. The reading came in at -7.70 for August compared to an expectation of 0.0 and the previous dat of -3.76 for July. This month's data is going in the wrong direction for recovery and for a healthier stock market. The reading this morning is not having a negative effect on the Futures market and from all I can see the market will start up this morning.

At 7:00am PST the NAHB Housing data will be released for August. Expectations are for a reading of 15, which would be the same as it was for July.

Tuesday's release of July's Housing starts and Building Permits will be interesting to see. Also tomorrow's data will include Import and Export prices as well as Industrial Production for July and Capacity Utilization for July. These are all lagging indicators. The most important of these are Housing Starts, Building permits and Industrial Production.

Milestone achieved for me. 1500 Blog posts written!

Yes, I reached a milestone yesterday as I have posted 1500 Blog posts. I couldn't believe it until I saw it on my counter. In had never ever written a thing before starting this Blog. I didn't think I could do it and if I started it, I wasn't sure I would keep it up. I started this Blog in May of 2005 because I was angry about what I thought Bush and Cheney were doing to ruin our country. My first post was written questioning the wisdom of John Bolton's selection as Ambassador to the UN. I think looking back my fears were warranted as he turned out to be a terrible UN Ambassador.

I also wrote in that month with my objections to changing the Senate Rules about the Filibuster. It is interesting that back then it was the Republicans wanting to eliminate the filibuster rule but it took 14 brave Senators including some Republicans to join Democrats in stopping the effort. Interestingly, the same issue was proposed by a Democratic Senate recently but cool heads prevailed and several Democrats joined Republicans to keep the current Rule.

So this has been an adventure for me over the 6 years and now my blog includes stock market views as well as political views. Thanks to all of you who have visited and those who took the time to leave a comment. I have had well over 65,000 visitors in these 6 years who have read over 125,000 pages of my Blog. Hooray! :)

Election aftermath: Playing Politics!

So Sen. Mitch McConnell through down the gauntlet again to President Obama stating he has several choices, change course or double down, keep increasing the size of government, continue the bailouts, etc. Blah, blah blah! He has clearly restated again today that he wants President Obama to be a one term President and that is the Republicans number one Goal.

So, he really wants to stop spending taxpayer money, but have you ever heard him say he wants the Fed to stop throwing taxpayers dollars for continuing zero interest rates and inflating the Bond market and the Stock market? Nope, not one word on it, nor any word by any serious Republican political leader out there, other than Ron Paul. But they are buying toxic assets and propping up the Banks and the wealthy business leaders every day and we don't hear a peep.

It is all about retaining power over the American people and minimizing the choices Americans have. We have some serious problems here folks and so far, 2 days after the election where Americans were trying to say to the politicians, stop the bickering and solve the economic problems and create jobs, and what do we hear, silence from this Republican party leader who made saying No, an art form. Sen. McConnell has been rewarded for this behavior when the Republicans won the election, so he is, in fact, doubling down, as they say in Black Jack. He is going to try twice as much as before.

Meanwhile, the Fed has all but guaranteed that they will keep everything propped up so people "feel better" and start to spend again. Friends, this is going to have a bad ending for everyone and the politicians are going to be indifferent because they get their paychecks from the wealthy and their lobbyists, who do their bidding. This is a very bad thing. We will all become slaves, as the little we have saved, will be destroyed.

Stock market pump today worth 215 points on the Dow, but Gold went up over $36/ounce to $1381/ounce. Do you really have more purchasing power? Nope. It's an illusion. Oh, and the debt can never be paid off in this manner. The Fed is creating more instability through its use of smoke and mirrors to make us all believe things are getting better.

Thanks!

I wanted to thank all my readers, as today I reached a total of 56,000 Visitors to my site who read over 89,000 pages. I hope you have learned something about the stock market, politics and have enjoyed the visit. Thanks!

I am off to play Golf this morning, so won't be posting on the market today until 11:30am PST or 2:30pm EST.

Markets and politics rule the week. Whipsaw action in both

It has been a while since I have commented about the overall market. This has been because nothing much was different in the trend until now. We are currently at a very interesting point on both the Dow and the S&P 500, as the 2 charts above show. We have broken the uptrend line this past week and reverted back just to the critical 3 year downtrend line. If we go below this downtrend line we are headed dramatically lower and could finally have that major 20% correction. However, if we can stay above that line, we may avoid it, at least for now.

We have gone back to the previous, ever important, resistance level of 1090 on the S&P 500 when markets closed lower on both Thursday and Friday. Back in early December, December 5th to be exact, I had said that I expected the correction to begin the end of January into the first 2 weeks in February and we are just about there now. The next 2 weeks will determine where the market is headed for 2010. If you have been following the markets recently, when good news has been the leading story of the day, like how much GDP gained in the 4th quarter, the market did not stay up. And when the market seems to have some bad news, the market has a big selloff on higher volume. The market is prepared to go lower psychologically right now and it may just play out.

The political arena has also added to the volatility when the seat Ted Kennedy held went to a Republican and shook Democrats to their core. They were in disarray. But then the State of the Union speech given by President Obama had many feeling a sigh of relief that it was a great speech which boosted the Democrats morale. Yesterday, President Obama went into the mouth of the beast, being invited to a retreat by House and Senate Republicans, he took them up on their invitation but insisted that the event be televised. Republicans agreed and so it began with a brief introduction and then down to business. The President gave the Republicans a lesson in being honest with constituents and the American people, in an unscripted format. His command of facts was truly impressive and inspirational. The contrast between this President and President Bush couldn't be more striking. One commentator reported one Republican leader as saying that they should never have agreed to have the event televised because the President did so well and making Republican arguments look so empty of substance. Fox news even decided to cut away and trash the President rather than allow their viewers to hear the President answering Republican questions in a masterful way. WE need more of this type dialogue in our politics no mater what side of the debate you are on. It forces competency to rule rather than quick shots from either party. Independents had to like this format and discussion more than both Parties. I hope we see more of it. Stay tuned!

Stock Market and political outlook for today for the 3rd debate

Stock Market Outlook today: Today the markets should pull back. How much is anyones guess. But there isn't any good news out there in reality. Expect about a 300 point drop today on the Dow and for it to go below the 9,000 level, but with Options Expiring this week for October on Friday, it could get very erratic, both to the upside and downside. It will feel like you are in a boat and riding the waves. I am expecting the moves in the market, over the next week or so, to make a double bottom and that means another test of the 8000 level. I have a sell order in for my TWM Short on the market at $140 if it should get there while I am away most of the day. I don't believe it will trade at that level but it is good to get an order in for the day, in the event that it does.

Those with exceptional skills can make money trading frequently on the swings but they must be watching the market continuously. I can't today, and that's a good thing. I need a break from these swings too.

Politics: We still will have 2 days left this week for Options to expire on Friday, and tonight the last debate will be held. From all expectations it sounds as though Senator McCain is going to focus on Obama's "character issues". I can hear the politics of the past going full force tonight from McCain, but I am hoping Obama will make short work of them and point out most Americans want them to talk about the economy and what they are going to do to get it back on track. It is the politic of deregulation that got us into this mess and that has been McCain's mantra most of his political career.

Americans don't need divisiveness now, they need someone who can heal this country and who can also gain respect from other world powers. As the son of William F. Buckley said yesterday, Barack, he believes, is that man. Buckley, a Republican and owner/writer of the National Review, tendered his resignation yesterday, as many Republicans were offended he switched to Obama, and they wanted him out of the National Review, as they felt they were betrayed. His father always allowed others to express their views openly as long as they were logical and had an explanation. He is probably turning in his grave over how the Republican Party lost its way and in the process destroyed the financial system in this country. He was one of the best type of Republicans, tolerant of others views, smart and articulate and wouldn't stoop to inflame crowds with racial slurs or innuendoes. He was like many of my fine Republican friends, who now lament over what has happened to their Party.

There was a scene in the Godfather, where Clamenza said, and I paraphrase, "every few years there has to be a cleaning of the bad blood between the Families and it was time now to do that." Same is true for the Republican Party.

Hillary's determination and what's scary about it

The media tonight speaks of Hillary's determination to continue the race in spite of the reality on the ground. A reporter stated tonight that Hillary and her campaign seem oblivious to the reality of the situation in delegate count and that reality is going to hit them in the face soon.

Is she acting Presidential? In one way, yes, if President Bush is the comparison. He too has repeatedly denied the facts on the ground, has shown his stubbornness and in the face of all the data, refused to pay attention to it. In that respect, Hillary is just like Bush. I don't want another Bush in the White House in the disguise of Hillary Clinton or John McCain. She seems fanatical at this point and someone is going to have the difficult task to tell her it's over and that won't be Bill either.

Iraq, War & Politics: I'm tired! Are you?

I guess after General Petraeus's report to Congress today along with one from Ambassador Ryan Crocker, I am a bit exhausted. It was 6 plus hours of testimony where the outcome had been decided in advance by both sides of the debate. It wasn't even covered by major networks. I had to watch it on C-Span. Both men were articulate, although not as informative as many wanted. To be honest, we are in this war past the 2008 election, as nothing will take place to get us out. I don't like it, but I am going to live with it.

Why you ask? I'll give you the best reasons I can. First of all, I'm tired of the whole thing. I have been disappointed by this President, VP and entire Administration for the continued subversion of the Constitution. I am tired that only one or two Republican leaders like Sen. Chuck Hagel, Sen. John Warner and Rep. Ron Paul, haven't put their party ahead of the country and the Constitution. And I am tired of the impotent Democrats who removed their saber tooth after getting a majority in the last election and must have checked it, along with their spines, at the door of Congress and the Senate.

I'm tired of trying to convince the public through my writings here to mobilize and get involved while they are too busy with taking their kids to school, shopping at Wal-Mart, working at their jobs relentlessly each week. I'm tired of trying to convince others that they can make a difference because they truly don't care.

So here's where I'm coming out of this. If the Military families, who bear the greatest sacrifice for the consequences of this war, aren't protesting in the streets in significant numbers, and we don't have an Army that is going AWOL in mass, then I say keep at it this war and let's focus instead on Britany Spears or some good entertainment like the new Fall schedule of shows. Then we'll be close to Christmas shopping, which always starts before Thanksgiving. Before you know it we will be enjoying the next summer. Wake me up on November 3rd, 2008 so I can vote on November 4th, 2008. I feel better now, almost rested. But then, there’s tomorrow.

The narrow Democratic majority in the Senate and what it means

The first test of the slim margin the Democrats have in the Senate is being conducted as I write this today. The tug of war on the Ethics Reform Bill passed by the House is being held hostage by the Republicans as the Bill, a Rule change, would require a 2/3's approval by the Senate and the Democrats just can't get there. Looking down the road at other issues coming to the body will be issues around how to stop this President from starting a new war with Iran, increase of troop levels and an escalation to the war, and other matters of very serious substance for our country to deal with. It now appears certain that the Democrats will not be able to stop this President, that we will all become more frustrated as a divided nation and that there will be nothing we can do about it until we elect a different President in 2008 who won't take office until January of 2009. My friends this is very depressing indeed.

I now believe we do not have the votes to impeach this President and therefore starting the process may be futile at best. So what can we do? The only way this course of action by our President will change will be when the Republicans decide to join Democrats and do something drastic to stop the powers assumed by this President. And how do we get the Republicans to do that? We give President Bush and VP Cheney more rope and hope they do what they have done all along, ignore the will of the people. It is only when Republicans fear an avalanche against them in 2008 will many jump ship. We need 16 Republican Senators with enough courage like Senator Chuck Hagel, to abandon this President. It won't be the likes of Mitch McConnell, Jeff Sessions of the Senate or the leading Presidential candidates for the Republicans, i.e. John McCain, but it could be people like Olympia Snow, Sam Brownback, Susan Collins, Elizabeth Dole, George Vionivich, Pete Dominici, John Ensign, Richard Lugar, and yes, Trent Lott, Pat Roberts, John Thune and John Warner. This would get us within striking distance for real change. This could preserve the Republican Party. If we fail to get Republicans to abandon this President this would result in a landslide in 2008 for Democrats in both houses of Congress, a Democratic President and absolute Democratic power (Absolute power corrupts absolutely!), which would result in a never ending cycle of corruption and an apathetic populace. So much hangs in the balance here. Wake up America!

Senator Joe Biden (D) and the upcoming Senate hearings on Iraq

It is not a secret that I have been positive on Senator Joe Biden for several years now. He did not let me down in his morning appearance on Meet the Press today. The Senator has repeatedly given this President sound advice over the past 3 years about the war in Iraq. The President has ignored his advice and the advice of many others more partisan than this Senator. But in the coming weeks, Senator Biden will be front and center in the news as he holds hearings on Iraq as the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Senator Biden also has his eye on the Presidency and is forming the necessary committees to allow for contributions and other fund raising activities. But these hearings will determine what the Senator is made of. Will he allow his Ego and arrogance at times to surface, as he has in the past, or will he be statelier and speak common sense to the American people and begin the rallying process around him. I for one really hope he makes good sense and begins to rally people around to his ideas for Iraq. The Senator is a brilliant Constitutional Lawyer, has a firm grasp on the realities in Iraq, has proposed several strategies for defusing the problems in Iraq and keep the country together in a loose Federal republic. He sees each area, Sunnis, Shiites and Turks, all managing their own local governments and sharing in Oil Revenue with a weak central government. This could work if we engaged the other neighbors in the area, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Iran and Syria. It could work if we also, as Brent Scowcroft said today on ABC's This Week, put a full course press in the diplomatic arena to help Israel and the Palestinians with a lasting peace, a two State solution.

The President steps up to the microphones and declares his strategy on Wednesday. Most believe he will ask for a surge of troops to secure Baghdad. Senator Biden starts his hearings on Thursday with his first Administration office holder, Condi Rice, being questioned about the Presidents strategy. It should make at least good TV, as the previous Republican controlled Senate did no oversight. Senator Biden hopefully will educate us all on what form oversight should take in a true democracy. He will probe the Secretary of State on what she is or isn't doing to step up peace efforts for the Palestinian & Israeli people. We will see what has not been so obvious, that this President is not a parallel thinker or great strategist, nor is his Cabinet, and that is what we need right now. We need leaders who can chew gum, talk and work at the same time on multiple issues that, at their very core, are interrelated! Condi Rice is smart enough to do this but she needs her leash to be un-tethered by this President and Vice President. She too could add significant thought to this debate if she were free to do so. But I doubt she will be allowed as her predecessor, Colin Powell, had his wings clipped too.

The whole world will be watching and Senator Biden's career, as a serious Presidential contender, holds in the balance. Good luck Senator. The country needs you to be successful in the outcome of these hearings.