Burning Questions from the 2022 Oscars

Are the red carpet interviewers part of ABC's master plan to finally reach that younger demo for the show?

Judging from the opening, is the new strategy to turn this into the Grammys?

Was that a lot of green or what?

Should we just be grateful they didn't predictably start with a hosts making a silly entrance?

Do you remember hearing Beyonce's original song from King Richard before now? 

Are 3 hosts too many?

Didn't they have to address the category cutting controversy?

When are we going to find out who won Editing? 

Were you worried each host would have their own monologue?

Wasn't Amy Schumer's Don't Look Up jab pretty great?

Wasn't it completely true what she said about Sorkin somehow being able to make an unfunny movie about Lucille Ball?

Have we just found out where all this 'extra time' is going on the show?  

Was DeBose's win such a foregone conclusion that she didn't even seem surprised?

Did Regina Hall sell the hell out of that COVID testing gag or what?

So, guessing it's okay to joke about that now? 

What's Chamalet wearing?

Did anyone know it was the 30th Anniversary of White Men Can't Jump?

Feel old yet?

If not, will you by the time the show's over? 

Has the Dune technical sweep began?

Could they breeze by that Documentary Short announcement any faster?

But didn't it probably get more time than we expected?

True to her word, wasn't it cool Jessica Chastain attended that pre-taped ceremony? 

Were you waiting for security to escort the uninvited Rachel Zegler out of the building?

Did her bad week continue when she had to present with someone 15 feet taller than her?

Are you still in disbelief that Lily James played Pamela Anderson?

Does everyone remember where they were when...The Flash entered the speed force?

Didn't Dreamgirls seem really, really out of place on that superhero heavy list? 

Wasn't Wanda Sykes' segment with the great Tim Bagley at the Academy Museum by far the best skit of the night?

Where was the Flash entering the speed force exhibit?

How about Wanda's reaction to Hattie McDaniel's missing Oscar?

Did you immediately get chills from Youn Yuh-jung's reaction to Troy Kotsur's win?

And then that shot of the audience?

Between this and Dune's dominance, could things look any bleaker for The Power of the Dog? 

Isn't the music playing the winners up to the stage unusually good this year?

Hasn't the show been a lot more slickly produced than last year's debacle? 

How are we doing on time? 

Did Mila Kunis' speech mean we're not getting Zelensky?

Isn't that okay since he probably his hands full right now?

All things considered, aren't they handling the pre-taped awards segments fairly well?

Were you worried Dune would also win Costume Design and screw up everyone's predictions?

Weren't you relieved it didn't?

6 Oscars already for Dune?

Wanda Sykes as Richard Williams? 

Has Jennifer Garner aged in 15 years? 

Did you hear that ovation for Branagh's win?

Was that adapted screenplay loss to CODA the final nail in The Power of the Dog's coffin?

Isn't it kind of a miracle Minamata somehow finished third in the Oscar popular vote?

Was Rami Malek introducing that song in character as Lyutsifer Safin?

Didn't Billie Eilish's Bond theme sound better live than in the movie?

Did they just say "final exciting hour?"

Does that mean we're ending at 11:15?

Should I hold them to that?  

By that time, will Dune have won more Oscars than Titanic?

Must they announce a category winner the second after they return from break?

Isn't Ridley Scott just going to love Regina Hall's The Last Duel joke? 

Um, What the hell just happened with Will Smith and Chris Rock?

Wait, was that real?

Did Smith just open hand smack him across the face?

Over "G.I. Jane 2?" 

Does someone need to tell the Smiths that G.I. Jane features maybe the most badass bald woman in any movie?

Does this incident put the "Oscar streaker" to shame?

Was someone at ABC just instructed to sit on the censor button for 2 minutes straight?

Hasn't Smith taken this Richard Williams role a bit far? 

Should Williams now star in a movie about Smith?

Didn't you just know Chris Rock would make this show interesting and relevant again?

If that was staged, should both take home Oscars? 

Which was worse: The slap or look of smug satisfaction on Smith's face as he strutted off the stage?

Should someone tell him he's a week early for Wrestlemania?

Is it time to start worrying who they'll egregiously leave out of the In Memoriam montage?

Weren't there a huge amount of notable deaths this year? 

Wasn't that unusually upbeat music for an In Memoriam montage?  

Wasn't it a nice touch having Bill Murray and Jamie Lee Curtis appear?

Did they really omit Bob Saget?

If you thought the White Can't Jump Anniversary made you feel old, imagine how who those who grew up on The Godfather feel?

Has a year ever gone by when Diane Warren wasn't nominated for Original Song?

Not a question but...COSTNER! 

Did you see the audience hanging on his every word?  

Was Jane Campion mocking his heartfelt speech?

Well, at least The Power of the Dog won something...right?

Should Campion maybe avoid talking about the Williams sisters again during her acceptance speech?

At this point were you thinking that Will Smith's speech sure should be interesting?

28 years later, doesn't it still kind of sting that Pulp Fiction didn't win Best Picture? 

Were you expecting Will Smith to be tackled by security or police before reaching the podium?

A standing ovation...really?

Should Travolta and Jackson get ready to protect themselves? 

Can Smith's career ever recover from this?

Isn't that such a weird thing to say about someone who just won an Oscar?

Is he lucky that such a thing as consequences don't exist?

Should he be in jail instead of on that stage a second time?

And to think 24 hours ago the big concern was how "boring" the show could be?

Did Smith put to rest any lingering doubt that the incident could have been staged the second he got up there and started talking?

Was that the longest acceptance speech in Oscar history?

Did you notice they wouldn't dare play him off? 

Did all that early promise the show would end at a decent time just evaporate in front of our eyes?

Hopkins was right. Smith sure said it all, didn't he? And then some.

Hey, if they strip him of the Oscar will that compromise my near-perfect Oscar prediction score this year?

Wasn't it the biggest relief to see Jessica Chastain up there after all that? 

Wasn't Gaga great in how she helped and guided Liza Minnelli?

Was CODA's Best Picture win completely overshadowed or what?

How about those Oscar ratings NOW? 

If this doesn't raise them, will anything?

Then again, 3 hours and 40 minutes?

Can Chris Rock host next year?

2022 Oscar Predictions

The good news first. If you're a fan and familiar with this year's nominees, there are some really tight races and compelling scenarios to weigh heading into Sunday's 94th Oscars. And it's basically a done deal that for the first time in the Academy's long and illustrious history that the coveted Best Picture prize will be won by a streaming service. The only question is which one, as that category has suddenly shaped into an extremely close two-horse race featuring a pair of films that couldn't be more diametrically opposed in approach, style and content. Add on top of that some eclectic acting nominations and it's sure to be an exciting predictions night for critics and prognosticators who religiously follow this. 

Now the bad news. The AMPAS still hasn't found a way to capture the zeitgeist or lure mainstream audiences to the show, whatever that means anymore. With theaters now exclusively reserved for the special attraction blockbusters and everything else going straight to streaming, we have another year of underseen nominees the general public couldn't care less about. And trying to shoehorn more popular titles onto the show for ratings by instituting a people's choice vote just puts a band-aid on what's become a far larger problem.

With ABC still recovering from the lingering hangover from last year's disaster, we've had a clumsy, last minute rollout of multiple hosts (after a three year streak of none) and a highly controversial decision to pre-tape 8 categories (including biggies like editing and costume design) as an intended time saver. Of course, whatever segments replace that are likely tell the tale of how bearable the show will be. Here's an idea: Don't proudly announce bad ideas anymore, work on having a good, tight telecast with one outside-of-the-box host and go back to five Best Picture nominees. I know, easier said than done. 

On the bright side, The Power of the Dog vs. CODA Best Picture showdown is a nail biter and having seen the majority of nominees before the show my prediction post this year has more of a "will win, should win" vibe to it. My predictions are listed below, along with a more in-depth analysis of the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to make possible changes or adjustments before the telecast. But once show time comes around, that's it.  

*Predicted Winners  

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto (Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Luca (Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer
and Peter Del Vecho)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art (Joanna Quinn and Les Mills)
Bestia (Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz)
Boxballet (Anton Dyakov)
Robin Robin (Dan Ojari and Mikey Please)
The Windshield Wiper (Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension (Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell)
Attica (Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sorensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Summer of Soul (Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein)
Writing With Fire (Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible (Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean)
Lead Me Home (Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk)
The Queen of Basketball (Ben Proudfoot)
Three Songs for Benazir (Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei)
When We Were Bullies (Jay Rosenblatt)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run (Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger)
The Dress (Tadeusz Lysiak and Maciej Ślesicki)
The Long Goodbye (Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed)
On My Mind (Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson)
Please Hold (K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

BEST SOUND
Belfast (Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri)
Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett)
No Time to Die (Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor)
The Power of the Dog (Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb)
West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune (production design: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos)
Nightmare Alley (production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (production design: Grant Major; set decoration: Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (production design: Stefan Dechant; set decoration: Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngelo)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” — music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (King Richard)
“Dos Oruguitas” — music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” — music and lyrics by Van Morrison (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” — music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” — music and lyrics by Diane Warren (Four Good Days)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America (Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer)
Cruella (Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon)
Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh)
House of Gucci (Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer)
Free Guy (Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and
Dan Sudick)
No Time to Die (Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA (screenplay by Siân Heder)
Drive My Car (screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe)
Dune (screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth)
The Lost Daughter (written by Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (written by Jane Campion)

A surprisingly competitive category and one of the toughest to predict, mainly because it'll provide a major clue as to how Best Picture shakes out. CODA, fresh off a WGA win and riding a tidal wave of momentum, looks to take out The Power of the Dog here first and just might. As the only adapted screenplay without a corresponding BP nod, Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter has an uphill battle, as does Dune, which should be busy cleaning up in the technical categories. Drive My Car overperformed nomination-wise, so while still lacks in really broad appeal, a shocking upset isn't impossible. But it comes back to the big two, with the edge going to CODA, if only because the emotional consensus is starting to look unstoppable. Still, what Campion did with Thomas Savage's novel can't be discounted, nor can The Power of the Dog's precursor haul and sheer number of nominations. It's taken some hits lately but there's still a lot of respect left for it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast (written by Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (screenplay by Adam McKay; story by Adam McKay & David Sirota)
King Richard (written by Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (written by Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Worst Person in the World (written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)

Another close race. Don't Look Up and The Worst Person in the World are filling out the category, but have no real shot. King Richard is definitely in a far better position to win than either, but Baylin's solid screenplay just hasn't been honored enough in other places to make me feel comfortable predicting that upset. It almost seems like years ago that Belfast was actually considered the Best Picture frontrunner, as it's been losing steam by the second heading into the final stretch. Can it still win here? Probably. Everyone seems to like Branagh and his charmer of a movie well enough that they'd want to reward it somewhere. PTA's Licorice Pizza script is coming on strong and has a surprising amount of support that could translate into votes, despite that nagging voice telling us "it's just not the Academy's thing." But despite it falling off the radar, I just can't see them sending Belfast home empty-handed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Ariana DeBose has this in the bag. Voters love symmetry and there would be no better recent example than DeBose winning for the same role her West Side Story co-star Rita Moreno did in the 1961, marking an Oscar first. Ellis, Dench and Buckley all did commendable work in their films but they've basically become stepping stones on DeBose's path to the podium and a gold statue. But as impressive as she was in the film, it's not the best performance in this category, or even in West Side Story, as Rachel Zegler and Mike Faist could both lay claim to that.  

Whatever you may think of The Power of the Dog, Kirsten Dunst's transformative work in it isn't easy to shake and ranks among the best things she's done in her entire career. Of everyone, she's the strongest threat to DeBose and deserves the win, but this race was decided months ago. It's a lock, not to mention a way to reward a movie that financially underperformed, but definitely has its superfans within the Academy. Everyone who likes it, loves it, and she's a big reason why, locking up nearly every major accolade leading into the show, making her win a mere formality. While Supporting Actress is long known for upsets, there won't be one this year.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

An intriguing field of contenders, but another foregone conclusion, as CODA's Troy Kotsur not only gave a great, film-stealing performance as Frank Rossi, but is just the kind of hard working journeyman the Academy loves rewarding, with an inspirational story to boot. That he'll be the second deaf actor (and first since co-star Marlee Matlin) to win an Academy Award has only become more apparent with each passing week as CODA continues to surge. As for the rest, Belfast's Ciarán Hinds feels like an outlier in a "thanks for coming" kind of way, which isn't a slight on his performance so much as a testament to how stiff the competition is. 

Former winner J.K. Simmons impresses as William Frawley in Being the Ricardos, but the role itself just doesn't seem like enough, especially next to The Power of the Dog's Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit McPhee's. Unfortunately for Plemons, his character disappears entirely in the last half of that picture whereas the latter has more of an arc and carries the film's most crucial portion as the shy, eccentric Peter Gordon. As the center of the biggest twist and darkness on which the entire story rests, McPhee takes us on a journey, albeit one that might prove too uncomfortable for voters. And in Oscar's universe, subtle complexity never reign supreme. It's Kotsur's to lose, but he won't, making for what should be one of the night's biggest moments.               

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

The Academy's penchant for biopics and actresses portraying famous figures is on prominent display this year, with only Penelope Cruz and Olivia Colman playing fictitious characters in Parallel Mothers and The Lost Daughter, respectively. Cruz has a legitimate shot as a popular dark horse who many believe is the strongest contender on merit. It seems like Colman just won for The Favourite, but that's never stopped the Academy before (see Frances McDormand). An early frontrunner, Kidman lost ground when people actually saw her performance as Lucille Ball in Being The Ricardos and had wildly mixed reactions. 

Kristen Stewart is so, so good in Spencer and should probably be the hands down winner. What she did as Diana was endlessly intriguing and entirely unexpected, but the movie's just too off-putting for them, ranking as maybe the most un-commercial release of 2021. While I still wouldn't completely count Stewart out, Jessica Chastain's emerged as the clear favorite, reminding us that when voters assess performances as real life people, the biggest and flashiest often win the day. They want the most noticeable physical and emotional transformation and Chastain (as well as the film's makeup team) definitely provided it. Plus, she's overdue and beloved within the industry, all of which should have us wondering how we didn't foresee this outcome sooner. She checks every possible box, but it's still wide open. 

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Will Smith is the lock of the night. Most have forgotten Denzel's even in this category, Bardem's role is more skillfully charming than award-winning, Garfield willed himself to a well-deserved nod in the so-so Tick, Tick...Boom! In giving what's arguably the category's best performance as sociopathic cowboy Phil Burbank in The Power of the Dog, Cumberbatch seemed like a viable pick months or even weeks ago until Smith started winning literally everything in sight. Dog's stock has dropped so much recently, it's now become a question whether it can cash-in on even one of its staggering 11 nominations anymore. 

Smith's performance as Richard Williams contains the hallmarks of what voters trip all over themselves to reward. Not to mention he's really good in it, navigating some tricky territory in playing the complicated (to say the least), but aspirational father and coach to daughters and future tennis superstars Venus and Serena. There's a reason Smith was earmarked from the jump to win for King Richard and his actual performance only reinforced that, exceeding the hype. We also have another long overdue actor who's universally liked, only making this that much easier a decision for them.          

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) 

So maybe it's not Sam Elliott's favorite film of the year, but a lot of people still really like (respectfully appreciate?) what Jane Campion did with The Power of the Dog. If that's the case, this category will be the ultimate test of how much goodwill it's retained over the past two months. If Campion somehow loses, Netflix can pack its bags, and even if she wins, there could still be a split with Director and Picture anyway. This field's a little more open than you'd think since Spielberg's visual contributions to West Side Story can't be undersold, Hamaguchi could still shock and Branagh is Branagh, which never hurts, even if Belfast peaked way too early. 

The only contender I can't envision them rewarding here is PTA, which is probably a compliment considering that (along with David Fincher) he's one of the greatest living filmmakers without a directing Oscar. He'll eventually win, just not for Licorice Pizza. Campion's still got this, even if it's  way closer than anyone previously thought. Of The Power of the Dog's 12 nods, this is the one you can feel safest predicting will fall in its favor, with career acknowledgment coming for an overdue Campion. It's good news for her that CODA directed itself or we might be having an entirely different conversation right now. 

BEST PICTURE
Belfast (Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers)
CODA (Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers)
Drive My Car (Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer)
Dune (Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers)
King Richard (Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers)
Licorice Pizza (Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile
Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers)
West Side Story (Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)

Statistically impossible. That's what we've been hearing about the chances of CODA winning Best Picture with only 3 total nominations, no DGA, no editing or directing nods and no below-the-line recognition in other categories. But what a difference just a month makes, as that perception changed considerably with its SAG Ensemble victory and shocking WGA and PGA wins, the latter of which remains one of the more reliable Best Picture predictors. Still, this is the longest of long shots, putting it in the company of another PGA winner without a directing nod, the now reviled Driving Miss Daisy. But it can happen, mainly because CODA's sure to show up at number 1 or 2 on nearly all these ballots. They love this movie and what it represents so that's enough for an Academy that's always voted with their hearts before all else. Critical complaints that Apple+'s little indie that could isn't "cinematic enough" to win or "plays like a TV movie" won't matter. They only care about how it makes them feel, which is why it's emerged as such a threat. 

Whether CODA actually deserves this is a separate issue, especially since even its most ardent supporters admit it probably can't hold up to the long-term scrutiny that accompanies the often dreaded Best Picture label. The Power of the Dog is the kind of film that can withstand it, in little danger of being forgotten the next day or outright mocked like previous nominees Little Miss Sunshine or Juno, to which CODA has somewhat unfairly been compared. But winning might be the worst possible thing for it, a punchline in the making with a backlash that could eventually rival Crash. And that's coming from someone who really likes it a lot. 

As for everything else, there really isn't room for a surprise spoiler. My favorite, Don't Look Up, is too polarizing, Belfast's chances already died on the vine, Drive My Car's surprise nomination was reward enough, Dune could sweep all the tech categories, Licorice Pizza doesn't have enough broad support and Nightmare Alley's an afterthought at this point. If voters really wanted to compromise, the rags to riches story of King Richard is a viable solution, but it seems that ship has sailed, as has West Side Story's. Had that been a box office success, it would be far better positioned heading into the show. While I could later regret it or change my mind five or more times, the smart money's on CODA, as unlikely as that once seemed.  

2022 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

It's that time again. Possibly as a response to last year's disaster of a telecast (the least watched Oscars ever) it was announced that there will be a host for the belated 94th Annual Academy Awards emanating from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on March 27th. Who that person will be is still a giant question mark, but we do now at least have nominations, as read this morning by actors Tracee Ellis Ross and Leslie Jordan. There weren't too many surprises or snubs, which could in large part be due to a thin, condensed field without a lot of alternatives. 

The question wasn't so much what or who would show up, but where and how prominently. And in that respect, the big winner was unquestionably Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, which leads the pack with 12 nominations and now has to be considered the frontrunner to take home Best Picture. While questions of whether it would be too dark and morose for the Academy's tastes were quelled considerably this morning by its nomination haul, it still has to win, and with AMPAS desperately going back to ten Best Picture nominees, that's dicier than ever. 

Looking at the nomination list (which can be found here), it's mostly satisfying, with many films and actors thought to be on the bubble, or in jeopardy of being snubbed, managing to get in. Still, the Oscars have a perception problem and another year's batch of underseen contenders doesn't look like it'll fix that. This is okay since the Academy Awards are what they are and it would be far worse to nominate high-grossing movies just to pop a rating or attract a hypothetical audiences who probably won't watch the show anyway. And after last year, it's hard to blame them, circumstances notwithstanding. So, that's where we stand, with this morning's announcement serving to only reinforce a long standing belief that voters do what they want, independent of critical praise or box office receipts. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don't, but this was one of their better mornings. Let's look at the major talking points.

- The Power of the Dog cleaned up in a big way. Picture, Director (Campion), Adapted Screenplay (Campion again), Editing (Peter Sciberras), Cinematography (Ari Wegner), Supporting Actor (Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit McPhee) and Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst). Examining other winners of the Big Prize from year's past, most of their nomination scorecards aren't this this stacked.

-Spider-Man: No Way Home was never getting nominated for Best Picture. And then we definitely knew for sure from its lack of technical notices and an editing nod. We've all figured out how the Academy works by now. This wasn't happening.

-Somewhat of a second wind for West Side Story, a critically beloved box office flop in serious danger of being shut out of Best Picture, even with ten slots. It didn't. The average age of voters (some of whom remember the original's 1961 victory) and the Spielberg factor likely helped. And Ariana DeBose not only gets in for Supporting Actress, but has a good shot at winning. A great day for this film, racking up a whopping 7 nods. Far better than anticipated. 

- Spencer's Kristen Stewart makes it. For a while, this was doubtful, to the point many were already declaring it the "big snub" before nominations were even announced. She'll be joining Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (Lost Daughter), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos). Other than maybe Cruz getting in, no real shocks except snubs for Licorice Pizza's Alana Haim (far from a given), West Side Story's Rachel Zegler (somewhat of a surprise) and House of Gucci's Lady Gaga (a bigger surprise). And while it wasn't going to happen, I would have jumped out of my seat if Jennifer Lawrence sneaked in for Don't Look Up. As of now, the smart money's on Kidman. 

-At this point, Will Smith's pretty much a lock for Best Actor for King Richard, with Cumberbatch his only possible threat. With his 10th career nomination for The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington becomes the most nominated black actor of all-time. Bardem (Being the Ricardos) and Andrew Garfield (Tick, tick...Boom!) round out a field that lacks Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), and most regrettably, Don't Look Up's Leonardo DiCaprio.

-Even fewer surprises in the supporting races, with maybe Judi Dench a slight one for Belfast, at least as far as anyone can be surprised when she's nominated, grabbing a slot some thought could go to Passing's Ruth Negga, or possibly Tessa Thompson. And some point, the conversation seemed to shift from King Richard's Saniyya Sidney to Aunjanue Ellis, now a first-time nominee. Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) was left out in the cold while Lost Daughter's Jessie Buckley got in. It's looking more and more like DeBose and Dunst will be battling this out.   

-Bradley Cooper doing double duty in Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza may not have helped him, going 0 for 2 with both lead and supporting nods. Nothing for Jared Leto for his love it or hate it House of Gucci turn. Whether Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-Phee cancel each other out for The Power of the Dog will be something to watch for in a strangely thin Supporting Actor category. McPhee is the safest bet here, but Troy Kotsur could actually win for CODA, assuming J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) or Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) don't manage a miraculous eleventh hour push.

- Dune predictably had a strong showing in nearly all the technical categories while maybe being the biggest beneficiary of an expanded Best Picture category. Let's face it: there's no way this gets in without more than five nominees. But it's also exactly the kind of big budget spectacle these extra slots were intended to provide an opportunity to. Whether it's entirely deserving is another issue, but I'd  rather see this there than a more flawed effort like Tick, tick...Boom! 

- You know it's a slow day when the biggest surprises are Ryusuke Hamaguchi's directing nomination for Drive My Car and an Original Screenplay nod for Joachim Trier's Worst Person in the World. But they're surprises nonetheless. Paul Thomas Anderson's inclusion (in both writing AND directing) would seem to improve Licorice Pizza's Best Picture fortunes, if not for the lack of an editing nod. 

-Campion, Branagh and Spielberg round out the group for Director, while Guillermo del Toro misses for Nightmare Alley. His popularity was at least enough to get it in for Best Picture despite some wildly mixed reactions. Dune's less polarizing, but its technical achievements still weren't enough to propel director Denis Villeneuve to a directing nomination. Unfortunately, Don't Look Up's Adam McKay wasn't really expected to get in here, settling instead for a well deserved Original Screenplay nod.

-With a Best Picture field this large, you do run the risk of filling slots for the sake of it, potentially watering down the nominees. And that's kind of what's happened. While it's fair to say Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley were the least expected inclusions (displacing Being the Ricardos and Tick, tick...Boom!), neither are exactly shocks. House of Gucci was just a loser all-around, missing everything and then some. CODA, King Richard and Dune fit into the "thanks for coming" category, a designation far fewer will now be assigning to West Side Story after this morning. Nothing PTA does can be dismissed outright, with Licorice Pizza being no exception. And the timeliness of Don't Look Up ensures its presence amongst voters who believe a Best Picture winner should say something about the current world in which we live. But Oscar night will likely come down to The Power of the Dog vs. Belfast, a showdown proving that as hard as the Academy may try to change, the more they stay the same.     

Dune (2021)

Director: Denis Villeneuve
Starring: Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Zendaya, David Dastmalchian, Chang Chen, Sharon Duncan-Brewster, Charlotte Rampling, Jason Momoa, Javier Bardem
Running Time: 156 min.
Rating: PG-13 

★★★ (out of ★★★★)

Better the longer it sits with you, Denis Villeneuve's Dune has the unenviable task of once again bringing to life the world in Frank Herbert's groundbreaking 1965 novel, while also picking up the pieces from one already perceived failure of an adaptation. There are few major, commercially viable cinematic properties left carrying as much baggage, due mostly to its inaccessibility and heady themes. Despite a story predating Star Wars by over a decade, on paper the plot contains elements justifiably earning those comparisons, albeit with more abstract material at its core, previously resulting in a rough big screen transition. Even if appreciation for his vision has grown slightly since, David Lynch learned found out the hard way in 1984, ensuring it wouldn't be revisted on a similar scale or scope until now. 

Arrival and Blade Runner 2049's Villeneuve seemed as good a choice as any to tackle this, possibly bringing the visual grandeur necessary to distract from, or maybe even enhance, some of the colder, navel-gazing excursions long thought to make it a better read than watch. And he does, giving us the best possible adaptation under the circumstances, even if a feeling of dread may overcome viewers when they see a title card reading "Dune: Part One" at the start of this 265-minute epic. Given the density of its source, that was inevitable, but you have to wonder whether this has the creative momentum necessary to become the franchise it's being positioned as. But it's a success, carefully guided by a director who, to his credit, doesn't try to fit a square peg into a round hole or dumb down a story that takes its time to marinate.

It's 1091 and the ruler of the ocean planet Caladan, Duke Leto (Oscar Isaac) of House Atreides has just been assigned to replace Baron Vladimir Harkonnen (Stellan Skarsgard) of House Harkonnen as the fief ruler of desert planet Arrakis. It's a rough, harsh terrain, but provides the only source of "spice," an invaluable resource critical to human viality and interstellar travel. Unbeknownst to Leto and House Atreides' weapons master Gurney Halleck (Josh Brolin), the Emperor is having Harkonnen stage a coup wit his troops to retake the planet, eradicating them before they can control the spice or form an advantageous alliance with the Freman, Arrakis' native inhabitants, represented by tribe leader Stilgar (Javier Bardem).

Leto's concubine, Lady Jessica (Rebecca Ferguson), an acolyte of the Bene Gesserit sisterhood, possesses advanced physical and mental capabilities that have been passed on to son Paul (Timothée Chamalet), who is trained by her, Halleck and  swordsmaster, Duncan Idaho (Jason Momoa). While they all sense greatness in young Paul, he has impulse control issues and problems harnessing his powers, distracted by visions of a turbulent future and dreams of a mysterious young Freman woman (Zendaya). A war looms as Harkonnen's fleet of troops and hulking nephew Glossu Rabban (Dave Bautista) prepare to attack. With the fate of House Atreides, as well as the planet of Arrakis hanging in the balance, their futures may depend on Paul answering the call to fulfill his true destiny.      

As involved as this all seems, it's even more convoluted than that, so Villeneuve deserves credit for distilling the script he co-wrote with Joe Spaihts and Eric Roth into a palpable cinematic experience that reaches a certain level of comprehensibility. They didn't exactly hit the jackpot in terms of the breeziest sci-fi tomes to adapt so it's actually amazing how well this holds together, especially in its strongest middle section. For anyone not already familar with Herbert's novel or Lynch's '84 take, what will initially be most noticeable are how many basic mythological tenets it shares in common with the Star Wars trilogy, including a young hero struggling with his lineage who's now suddenly thrust into a leadership role in the wake of family tragedy. 

The use of a Bene Gissert Force-like technique known as the "Voice" that's ultilized to control others actions are where the closest similarities between Paul and young Skywalker end. If the latter was an eager go-getter almost too energetic for his own good, Paul's the most reluctant and introverted of heroes, with Chamalet subtly conveying a quiet confidence, while still registering his character's inner anguish and growing dread in nearly every scene. He's asked to do a lot while at times sustaining an almost absent stillness, putting a lot of pressure on the audience to embrace an entirely different kind of protagonist who must adhere to a philosophy built almost entirely on restraint and passivity, at least until it isn't. 

Since the character of Paul is such a departure, for some it may not be the most compelling thing to watch, but Chamalet completely makes it work, especially in his many scenes opposite a tremendous Rebecca Ferguson as his mother, Lady Jessica, who's simultaneously disappointed in and encouraging of her son. This, and his futuristic visions of Zendaya's Chani might be the film's most successful element, with even cinematographer Greig Fraser's impressive vistas and Hans Zimmmer's score managing to take a backseat (though not too much of one) when those actors are on screen. And while his time is more limited, Jason Momoa finds a way to make maybe the biggest impression as the spectacularly named Duncan Idaho, perfectly filling the cocky, anti-hero warrior role that's been so frequently miscast of late in these big blockbusters. 

That such strong acting assets as Oscar Isaac, Javier Bardem and a slimy, Jabba-like Stellan Skarsgård (buried in prosthetics) are far from an afterthought in an already stuffed A-list cast is a testament to how well Villeneuve utlilizes what he has. Whatever the story's perceived problems or occasional lapses in focus are made up for by them and the sheer spectacle of the fight sequences and effects, especially those ferocious sandstorms. Striking just the right balance of keeping your eyes glued to the screen without going overboard, the ratio of meditative scenes to slam bang action is well proportioned, with visuals that make one of the better recent cases for theatergoing.

A seemingly uncompromised Dune that's free from the pandering you'd expect from a movie this size might the best thing about it, staying true to its vision while avoiding the temptation to self-indulge. Culminating in more of a stoppage than an end, it feels so much like a first part, they may as well just slap a "to be continued" on the screen. How many will want to follow this story into the next chapter is the bigger question, even as it stands as one of the year's bigger technical achievements, awash in imagery and scenes that stay with you long after the final credits. No one expected this new Dune film to achieve perfection, but it's impressive nonetheless, reigniting a spirited debate as to why that lofty goal seems unattainable, both for better and worse.