Odd Times

In a short while I should hear how well Frostfire did with its release week sales. I have been asked if/where I think my novel might land on the lists, and that's a tough question. Shadowlight, debuted at #17 on the Times mass market, and Dreamveil made the extended list at #26, but that doesn't guarantee anything.

New release-wise, January has always been a lucky month for me, but most of the time titles that were released in December roll over onto the lists. I just took a look at the Times mass market, and nearly all of the listers are Big Names with huge bestsellers (very tough competition for yours truly.) There has been lots of positive buzz about Frostfire, and I know many of you have gotten your readers, family and friends to buy the novel, which I appreciate more than I can say. It's also the third novel in a series, and that's the point where you start losing new-to-you readers, so believe me, every sale helps.

Basically, though, I have no idea how well it will do. My non-psychic intuition tells me (in keeping with the other stuff that's already happened in 2011) that this book's performance is going to be odd. Odd-good or odd-bad, I can't say. Could go in either direction.

But we should have some fun with it, so let's have another Times Pool. In comments to this post, tell me if you think my novel Frostfire will make the NY Times mass market bestseller list. If you don't, simply put "no" (and you won't hurt my feelings if you vote no.) If you do, put "yes" and guess at what number it will appear on the list or the extended list (that would be a number between 1 and 30.)

Once the Times lists for the week of January 23rd are released (I believe that's the list I have a shot at), I will close the pool, announce how Frostfire did (or didn't) do, and award the person who guessed correctly a BookWish*. If more than one person posts the correct guess, I will put all of the names of those who are correct in the magic hat and draw one at random to be the winner.

This pool is open to everyone on the planet, even if you've won something here at PBW in the past.

*A BookWish is any book of your choice available to order from an online bookseller, up to a maximum cost of $30.00 U.S. (I'll throw in whatever shipping is involved.)

Uncrackable

The NY Times mass market bestseller list is tough to get on any month, but when I saw this past week's list I knew my name wouldn't be showing up on it at all. Sure, I've had some luck in the past, but let's be realistic. There are just too many big names who have huge print runs and massive marketing campaigns, and usually stay on the list for multiple weeks listed there. Far too popular for my new release to battle; I knew the minute I read it that it was an uncrackable list.

I couldn't get depressed about it; I'm very happy with how the admittedly low key release of Dreamveil went. Okay, the book shipped a couple weeks early, but what else is new? Everyone here seemed enthusiastic about it, so I was pretty sure it would sell well. I got to do some interesting things with the story and I thought the readers would enjoy it. The free e-book I posted also was well-received (it got almost 10K hits and over 1200 downloads in the first week, which is really fabulous.) Early buzz has been favorable, too.

Today I got the Times mass market list for my release week (you all will see it next week) and as I suspected it was pretty much an uncrackable rollover: all big names, some with multiple titles, all getting second, third, fourth and fifth weeks on the list. I compared and counted, and only four new titles actually made it into the top thirty, with three of the four novels are by very popular male authors.

The fourth and last novel to debut on the list, coming in at a very respectable #26? Was by this chick:



You guys cracked the uncrackable and made my novel look terrific. Thank you for this awesome show of support.

Buy My Hardcover, or I'll . . . .

My daughter told me tonight that author James Patterson is running a TV commercial in which he threatens to kill his protagonist if people don't buy his new book. I think Stephen King already did that once in The Dark Half and it didn't work out so well for the guy (wait, no, twice, he did it in Misery, too.)

Maybe it's a joke, but getting all Abraham with your readership is like telling your editor what you really think of him. Just don't go there. Ever.

I know the steady decline in hardcover sales is costing the big names lots of bucks (according to Publishers Weekly, adult hardcover sales were down 13% in 2008 as a result of a 5.3% drop in gross sales plus 10.8% increase in returns, and while I don't have any reliable figures for 2009, friends tell me it's been a bad year for the hardbound.)

I buy mostly paperbacks, but I'll admit, I didn't buy as many hardcover novels in 2009 as I have in years past. 99.9% of what I did buy were for blog giveaways or were copies I passed along to friends with tight book budgets. It's always been tough for me to pay $27.00 for a hardcover when I can get three paperbacks for $24.00, and I only do it for a couple authors like Mary Balogh and Linda Howard. I'm also now having trouble holding heavy hardcovers for long periods of time, and most of the big fat ones like Stephen King's latest I read from a bookstand or from the tabletop, which sometimes gives me a neck crick. Since I can't use an e-reader, paperbacks really are the most comfortable reads for me.

I think most readers are being pretty cautious when it comes to buying hardcovers, too, as I'm not seeing the booksellers moving much of their big name stock. I saw one novel by a critically-acclaimed author marked "Clearance -- 50% off" at BAM last week, which was a huge shock. Why? This particular author was advanced millions, had a multi-million-dollar marketing campaign, plus the book was just released this fall. I'd heard that it tanked, and badly, but to hold a firesale before it's even had three full months on the shelf? That is troubling.

To be published in hardcover is nice -- I've had about ten books debut that way -- but these days they're just not selling (and with the economy the way it is, I doubt that's going to change.) I'm sure the big names have enough in the bank to weather the storm, but until prestige pays the bills the working writer has a better chance of earning out and even making a profit in paperback -- and even more so in electronic format. If I were ever given a choice (most authors don't choose how their books are printed, btw; publishers decide that) I'd pick paperback every time.

Another downside to hardcovers is the short shelf life. I've notice a lot of paperback reprints of hardcover titles being released within six months of the hardcover (it used to be a year or more) which pretty much kills the sales of hardcover editions. With less time on the shelves, it's likely that a larger percentage of hardcovers are being remaindered sooner than they should be (which may also explain why the returns in 2008 were so high.)

That day at BAM I almost bought a sympathy copy of the millionaire author's 50%-off title. I know, it's weird, but in the past I have bought books because I felt sorry for their one-hit wonder authors. But evidently the economy and the plight of too many midlist authors has changed my attitude. As I picked up the book, I thought of two paperbacks I wanted that I could buy for the same price as the one hardcover. In the end I went for paperbacks instead, and honestly? I didn't feel guilty at all. I felt I was being supportive of two authors who interested me and who I know don't have millions in the bank.

As for James Patterson, I never followed any of his series books so it doesn't make any difference to me if he kills this character or not. I bet his fans feel differently, though.

I'm curious -- what, if any, hardcovers are you guys buying these days? Do you have any criteria as to what you will buy in hardcover? Do you find you're more inclined to wait for the paperback, or buy books that are first released in paperback versus hardcover? And last but not least, would an author threatening to kill off a character compel you to buy their book? Let us know what you think in comments.

Rob's Stats

The one bit of news I was hoping for came in today: my January release Stay the Night debuted at #88 on the USA Today bestseller list, which makes the seventh Darkyn novel in a row to appear on it, and now they can call the entire series a USA Today bestseller. This makes the people in NY very happy. I'm just relieved the waiting is over.

I was not expecting STN to make the Times list at all; there are just too many books out at the moment by very popular authors, including some multiple titles belonging to two white-hot vampire series that have TV and movie tie-ins. When that happens they tend to dominate the list and keep the rest of us not-as-popular writers off. That, combined with the book being sold two weeks before the lay down date and the inappropriate changes to the cover art pretty much guaranteed that the book wouldn't make the list.

Despite all the problems I've had with publishing the Darkyn books over the past four years -- and there have been plenty -- I still feel I've been very fortunate. Once more my readers stood by me, supported my work, spread the word and created a following. You can't buy that. Publishers can't give it to you. There is no marketing trick or advertising widget or secret handshake that magically bestows that on you. You can only hope to earn it by doing your best.

I appreciate all you guys have done to help me finish up this series on a positive note. And I think I can now, because while I doubt pink will ever be the new black, Rob's book actually did make the Times list. #27 on the extended mass market bestseller list. So I thank you all for that, too.

19

Today is Monday, and also my birthday. I would lie and tell you I'm 29, but these days that only fools the people with white canes and guide dogs. I think we need another way to measure age. Let's see, in dog years, I'm 6.7142857142857142857142857. Or the square root of 2,209 (if you say that really fast it sounds like 29.)

We're not officially partying until tonight when my guy gets home from work, but this past weekend he arranged a lovely romantic dinner for us. I've shamelessly dropped hints for the last couple of weeks, so tonight when I unwrap my gifts I expect to find a reading lamp for the living room, a set of corn holders, and a new purse to replace the only one I own, which the Smithsonian has asked me to donate for their upcoming exhibit on Jurassic-era accessories.

On the professional front, things have been a little tough. My latest release didn't make it into many stores in time for the holiday weekend, and a significant piece of advertising for it that I had been counting on was misplaced or lost. It didn't seem fair, but Publishing rarely is, so I battened down the hatches and resigned myself to disappointing the folks in NY again. I even e-mailed my agent in advance and warned her how poor the book's performance was likely to be under the circumstances.

Then you guys go and put Twilight Fall at #19 on the New York Times mass market bestseller list. Now what do I say? Aside from Holy Toledo, is that really my book on there? and I have the best readers on the planet, I mean.

I honestly don't know what to say. I've written this post about two thousand times already, and no matter how much I edit it, I still sound like I'm babbling. I am so grateful to you, to all of you.

I'm 47 today, and my novel is 19. It's a gift I'll never forget. Thank you.

Dilemma

When I got the call last year that Night Lost debuted at #21 on the New York Times mass market extended bestseller list, I was dumbfounded. That had never happened to me, and I had basically resigned myself to the fact that it never would.

Once the shock wore off, however, I calmed down and pegged it as a one-time fluke. Maybe it was a slow month, maybe the bookstores unpacked my boxes first, or maybe a couple of thousand people were bored, wanted something new to read, and decided this while standing next to the V shelf. No way would it happen again.

I kept up that attitude until January, when Evermore debuted at #21 on the Times list, and hung on for a second week at #30. Amazing stuff, or so I thought until I got yelled at for it.

You see, as it has been explained to me, it's not making the list another time, it's what number your book makes on the list. According to my publisher's rules, their marketing people may not refer to me as a NYT bestselling author until my novel makes it to #20 or better. So while my books have appeared on the extended list three times now, I'm still publicized as only a USA Today bestseller (I notice that my series, however, is being touted on online bookseller sites as a NYT bestseller. Different set of rules for the books, I guess.)

Since my second experience of having a novel make the Times list was pretty much ruined by all the unhappiness it caused in NY, I couldn't look forward to my next release. In fact, for the last couple of weeks, I've been dreading it. I keep thinking, with my luck? The book will hit #21 on the list again, and this time they'll send someone to the house to break my legs.

So, before my next release hits the shelves on July 1st, should I:

A. Leave the country and hide out in Europe until it's all over and they're mad at someone else.

B. Have my phone and ISP service turned off until it's all over, etc.

C. Hire a sweet-voiced secretary to say I can't come to the phone or answer e-mail because I'm suffering from a case of acute tinnitus and pink eye.

D. Hire a mean-voiced secretary to say I'm not available and not to bother me or I may decide to make a living writing dog food commercials.

D1. Check out the exciting career opportunities available in the dog food commercial writing field.

D2. I do love dogs almost as much as I love cats.

D3. I'd get to work with David Duchovny, too, if Pedigree signed me, right?

D4. But David's still married, and I'm in a committed relationship too.

D5. Rats.

E. Get a prescription for Valium and stay on it for the entire month of July.

F. Practice New Age excuses for the book not performing to expectation, like, "The planets weren't aligned correctly" or "I forgot to have my chakrahs balanced" or "Someone must have drained the energy from my writing aura."

G. Blame it on a conspiracy by the Times to keep me at #21 in retaliation for all the times I've made fun of their badly-worded annual rec lists.

H. Hire some big guys from the old neighborhood to answer the phone and casually mention how much they love me, how willing they'd be to stomp into the ground anyone upsets me, and how quickly they can be in New York.

H1. Hire some big guys from the old neighborhood to break both of my legs as a preemptive move, go into the hospital that doesn't have WiFi, and unplug the room phone.

H2. Okay, pretend to have them break both of my legs.

I. Start a Times list betting pool for the new release, and put all my money on #21.

J. Start a rumor that #21 on the Times list is better than #20 and, in fact, usually outsells them.

K. Put my fingers in my ears and sing La-La-La continuously for the next five weeks.

L. Have a highly-publicized nervous breakdown, and twitch and foam at the mouth uncontrollably whenever someone says the words "bestseller list."

M. Consider that I'm already having a nervous breakdown and just haven't realized it yet.

M1. Try to find a therapist who won't break down in tears halfway through the first session.

M2. There's no shame in going back to the therapist, you know, or making her cry again. The poor woman probably needs the emotional outlet.

N. Become a Victoria's Secret Lingerie Model and make Heidi Klum my BFF so I can get Seal's new albums and some of those cute four-leaf clover gold earrings for nothing.

O. Hey, I'm fantasizing here.

P. Have the part of my brain that worries surgically removed.

Q. Take a very looooooooooooooooooong nap.

R. Call Alison Kent and keep her on the phone for five weeks.

S. Go alligator hunting and get lost in the Everglades with a large, single, strapping young male guide who finds me wildly attractive and hasn't had sex since Clinton was in office.

S1. P.S., Bring lots of vitamin E, good sunscreen and strong mosquito repellent.

T. Write a blog post about bestseller list dread, laugh at myself, and then just let it go.

U. But check on the availability of the guys from the old neighborhood, just in case.

Cast your vote in comments.

The Lists

The news I hinted at is that Evermore is doing quite well, thanks to everyone who went out and purchased it. Apparently everyone did, as the book debuted as:

#7 on Border's and B&N's romance bestseller lists
#16 on Border's Group overall fiction mass market paperback list
#22 on B&N's overall fiction mass market paperback list
#23 on B&N's overall mass market paperback list
#96 on USA Today bestseller list (that's everything, hardcover, trade & mm)

And, deja vu, Evermore will come in at #21 on the next New York Times extended bestseller list.

How to say this without sobbing all over you guys and the blog, now that's the tricky part. For a writer, these are the moments when you put on your ratty old bathrobe, stuff some Kleenex in the pocket and curl up in your favorite chair. You hug your knees and think and shake your head a lot. And while you stare at your shins and try to fathom it all, you also wonder if the Times has any idea that you haven't shaved your legs since last Tuesday.

Okay, if you're me.

To everyone who took the time, made the effort and invested in Evermore, thank you.

SF Bestseller

The paperback reprint of my novel Blade Dancer debuted at #4 on the SF paperback bestseller list. At least, I'm assuming fourth place by counting down from #1; whoever typed it up has me and China Mieville starred versus numbered.

I can't account for my excellent showing, other than knowing that the hardcover did very well last year. Even then, Blade Dancer was not given any special promotion that I know of. The publisher bought an ad in Locus and sent out the standard amount of reviewer copies, but I think that was it. Except for an excerpt on my web site, I didn't do any promotion for the hardcover or the paperback in July. I don't make public appearances, don't do readings, booksignings, or go to conventions. I've abandoned all self-promotion except for my web site, and I haven't touched that in a year.

I'm not posting this to smirk at all the writers who do self-promote. I'm just as stumped as everyone else is as to why my SF sells so well when I do nothing but write the books. I'd like to think I'm writing what people want to read, but that can change from one book to the next, and you should never make that assumption. When you're too confident of your readers, you get lazy and self-indulgent. In this industry, every book is a fight for numbers and readers.