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Tuesday, July 15, 2025
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MacroSutra

Amid challenges, the upcoming budget & monetary policy must work in tandem to focus on growth

The Union Budget must cut revenue expenditure so growth-boosting tax cuts are possible, while monetary policy should focus on growth-inflation dynamics instead of defending the falling rupee.

Rupee pressure likely to persist for now. Flexibility may be apt strategy for RBI to counter uncertainty

Rupee had a major fall this week, led by strong US macro data, rising crude prices. China's currency moves, Japan’s possible rate hike & domestic growth concerns may maintain pressure.

Govt estimates of GDP growth reveal several pain points. Budget 2025 should prioritise consumption

The first advance estimates peg India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth at 6.4 percent in FY 2024-25, compared to 8.2 percent growth recorded in...

Indian banks have solid asset quality & profitability for now, but risks are emerging on both counts

Narrowing of the wedge between credit and deposit growth, and the possible easing of the monetary policy, could weigh on the net interest margin of banks in 2025.

India is speeding towards 4th largest economy spot, but global & domestic challenges await in 2025

A big source of uncertainty will be trade after Trump assumes office. However, within India, rural demand is likely to sustain momentum & inflation is less likely to be a big problem.

Debt stock of low- & middle-income nations is troubling. Their debt servicing costs are soaring, too

Economic activity has rebounded in LMICs post pandemic, but the debt accumulated in that period has continued to grow, driven by both short & long-term debt.

Balancing inflation & growth, managing rupee: New RBI governor’s docket will be full of challenges

With Sanjay Malhotra at the helm, RBI could shift towards a more dovish monetary policy, but the conventional policy response of rate cuts will not be a given with rising pressure on rupee.

7 months into FY25, govt has met just 42% of capex target, low GDP growth puts strain on fiscal goals

Corporate tax collections saw modest growth of just 1.2%, but a 20.2% rise in income tax collections helped strengthen the government's overall revenue position.

Trump’s policies are leading to high US bond yields, stronger USD. India must brace for volatile rupee

The rupee has been depreciating lately due to FPI outflows, dollar strength & weak corporate performance. The slide, however, is less steep compared to other emerging markets.

India’s export upswing & trade outlook hinge on near-term challenges. Trump’s return to be big factor

India posted healthy growth in exports in October, even as imports grew sequentially. Donald Trump’s policy stance will have significant impact on India’s trade balance with US.

On Camera

UPI has grown beyond start-up stage. It must power India’s grand strategy

The UPI can serve as a turning point in India’s engagement with a world that is collapsing under the weight of great power politics.

India-US set to ink mini trade deal soon, reach understanding on agricultural & dairy products

Mini deal will likely see no cut in 10% baseline tariff on Indian exports announced by Trump on 2 April, it is learnt, but additional 26% tariffs are set to be reduced.

3 top ULFA-I leaders ‘killed’ in Myanmar, Indian Army denies role as insurgent group alleges involvement

The banned group claimed their leaders & cadres were killed in ‘drone strikes’ by the Indian Army. Guwahati Defence PRO denies any such operation.

RSS chief Bhagwat draws the line at 75. India’s politics stares at the Modi Exception

BJP has no dynastic succession, at least not at the top. You can trace this back to Vajpayee-Advani era. This act of spotting, empowering younger talent is even more striking with the choice of BJP presidents.