Dennis Schulz

We have today launched our annual Gas Winter Outlook. Each year, this report outlines how we see the gas system’s capacity in Great Britain, as well as pressure points and overall resilience for the upcoming winter. We expect gas demand will remain similar to last year. Great Britain's diverse and flexible gas supplies position us well to manage the colder weather ahead. What remains paramount is the role gas plays in our energy system. Our report found that last year, gas accounted for over 50% of Great Britain’s electricity generation between high-demand periods like late November to early December. As we work towards incorporating renewables and other sources of green energy into our wider energy system, gas’ vital role in the energy system cannot be understated, as it continues to prove essential in providing businesses and industries with the energy they need. Working closely with our cross-industry partners, I am confident in our abilities at National Gas to deliver the energy Great Britain needs this winter – keeping the lights on, industries fuelled and homes warm. Gas remains critical in this effort as we transition towards cleaner alternatives. #SecuringBritainsEnergy Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eC6WFgXf

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Morning Briefing 12/12/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 40.9GW and due to peak this evening at 44.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £506 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £198.72 in the 1hr and £234.74 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently 1GW under forecast at 1.3GW an due to rise to 3.3GW this evening and continue up to 6.8GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 0.7GW at 11.30am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £243.57/MWh with gas providing 73.9%/27.83GW, wind providing 4.8%/1.80GW, solar providing 0.1%/0.04GW and nuclear providing 10.0%/3.76GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.30p/th (3.73p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £148.00/MWh (14.80p/KWh)   Month ahead (Jan 25) ·Jan NBP gas is currently down 0.54% at 109.62p/th (3.74p/KWh). ·Jan TTF gas is currently down 0.75% at €44.38MWh. ·Jan UK Baseload currently at £95.50/MWh (9.55p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were negative yesterday, with the DA price down 2.31%, predominantly pressure by milder and windier weather forecasts for the second half of December. Along the curve, the Sum25 contract was down 1.35% as the strong LNG supply continued to add to the bearish sentiment despite the rise in gas for power demand. ·UK power prices were mixed, with the DA price up 13.52% due to the forecast drop in wind and solar generation today, which caused markets to auction as high as £506/MWh in the peak. Along the curve, the Sum25 contract was down 0.51% tracking the gas sentiment as the milder weather and strong supply picture added pressure. ·According to Gassco AS, there is an unplanned outage at Asgard with 8.6mcm unavailable capacity, with total exports at 330.2mcm. ·OMV has terminated its Gazprom contract with immediate effect, citing alleged violations of contractual obligations by the Russian supplier, is said late on Wednesday. ·Oil prices are up slightly this morning as forecasts of weak demand and a higher than expected rise in US gasoline and distillate inventories stemmed gains from an additional round of EU sanctions threatening Russian oil flows. ·Latest forecasts show temps to be milder than once thought, rising 3degrees above norms on the 16th and then staying above or on averages. ·There are currently 10 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Wednesdays close -  o   Month ahead 110.22p/th (3.76p/KWh) down 2.38% DoD* o   Q1 25 110.15p/th (3.76p/KWh) down 2.24% DoD o   Summer 25 104.31p/th (3.56p/KWh) down 1.35% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Wednesdays close – o   Month ahead £95.45/MWh (9.55p/KWh) down 1.70% DoD* o   Q1 25 £93.11MWh (9.31p/KWh) down 1.48% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.50MWh (8.05p/KWh) down 0.51% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #wind #gazprom

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Daily #Energy Market #Report - September 5th, 2024 - The UK energy market today continues to reflect shifting dynamics across power generation, gas supplies, and pricing. We’re currently experiencing a brief period of warm temperatures, expected to last until September 8th, before we reach an inflexion point where temperatures are forecasted to drop significantly. This anticipated drop could influence short-term NBP Forward Market prices. On the renewable front, wind generation forecasts remain weak for the next two weeks, placing upward pressure on Unconstrained Balancing Line prices. The limited contribution of wind power to the grid underscores the volatility of renewable energy supply, especially as we transition towards a more sustainable energy system. Yesterday, the Norwegian maintenance schedule saw minor changes, with a day added to the Kollsnes and Nyhamna gas processing facilities, while Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin maintenance durations were slightly reduced. These adjustments may lead to further price volatility in the near term, but no significant shifts are expected yet. In terms of pricing, NBP gas and UK electricity markets have seen notable downward movement. NBP gas day-ahead prices increased slightly by 1.06%, but the overall trend points towards a drop in forward prices, with October 2024 NBP prices falling by 3.94%. The UK electricity market also followed a similar trend, with day-ahead power prices declining 15.68% for base and 16.07% for peaks. Longer-term contracts for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 show reductions across the board, with decreases of between 2% and 3%. The UK gas system remains long, with a surplus of 8.32 million cubic meters, reflecting lower demand versus seasonal norms. LNG imports and domestic supply continue to support the system, though any significant changes in interconnector flows or storage levels could drive fluctuations. The week ahead could bring further adjustments, particularly as we approach the inflexion point in temperature and see the impact of maintenance on gas flows. With renewables contributing less to the mix, reliance on gas and interconnector imports remains strong, but any shifts in market conditions will likely cause further price movement. As these trends continue to unfold, it's crucial to stay informed and agile. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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Today 16th October’s UK energy landscape reflects shifting dynamics across gas, power, and renewables, with mild temperatures and steady LNG inflows shaping the market. Gas prices on the NBP day-ahead market settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly lower than the previous session, as the system opened this morning undersupplied by 22 mcm/day. While piped flows from Norway remained flat, UKCS production decreased to 102 mcm/day. LNG send-out from South Hook and Isle of Grain provided 14 mcm/day, with additional LNG cargoes expected in the coming weeks to support the UK’s supply. Power prices followed suit, with the day-ahead baseload settling at £67.88/MWh, a sharp decline from yesterday’s £87.12/MWh, reflecting higher wind generation and milder demand expectations. However, as wind forecasts predict output dropping below seasonal norms in the coming days, gas demand for power generation could increase, potentially influencing prices upward. On the supply side, nuclear availability remained steady despite several ongoing outages, including units at Heysham and Torness. Weather forecasts suggest today will be the warmest of the month so far, with temperatures expected to stay above seasonal norms until the end of October. This trend is contributing to softer demand for heating, easing pressure on both gas and electricity markets. Meanwhile, carbon prices also eased slightly, with EUA Dec 24 certificates trading at €65.09/tonne, and the UK ETS market at £39.04/tonne, reflecting reduced short-term emissions intensity. Currency movements saw GBP/EUR at 1.1997, while GBP/USD edged up to 1.3072. With three LNG cargoes set to arrive soon and strong Norwegian flows to the continent, market fundamentals appear stable, though fluctuations in wind generation may drive volatility in power prices in the days ahead.

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Daily Energy Market Report: As of 7th November 2024, the UK energy market reflects the ongoing volatility driven by fluctuating gas supplies, shifting currency values, and varied renewable generation forecasts. Natural gas and power prices are responding to both domestic and international pressures as the market navigates supply chain developments and seasonal demand. Today, the UK's natural gas market opened with a slight oversupply, at around 7 million cubic meters per day, suggesting a temporary buffer in meeting national demand. Despite low interconnector flows to the continent, the UK has a minor import of 1 mcm/day via the BBL pipeline due to retained premiums in the National Balancing Point (NBP). LNG sendouts are steady, with strong inflows from Norwegian gas sources further stabilising supplies as maintenance at the Teesside terminal concluded. Additionally, Norwegian gas continues to support UK imports with robust flows via the Langeled and Vesterled pipelines, which contribute to the steady supply amidst anticipated temperature drops later in the month. On the pricing front, NBP Day-Ahead gas closed at 102.40 pence per therm, while forward contracts for December and January 2025 also saw modest changes, reflecting a stable near-term market outlook. Meanwhile, UK power prices showed a downward shift, with the Day-Ahead Baseload price dropping by £16.38 to £102.10/MWh. Renewables have been contributing less than usual, as wind generation forecasts remain below average for the coming week. This lower wind generation has put pressure on N2EX prices, which peaked this year with an aggregate daily price of 127.15 GBP/MWh, further reflecting the importance of renewables in offsetting gas-fired generation costs. Looking to international influences, yesterday's US election results, marking a decisive victory for Donald Trump, spurred market reactions, with expectations of increased oil production and a stronger dollar potentially impacting future gas prices. Meanwhile, European hubs like TTF have shown price increases on the back of a bullish gas complex in the final hour of trading, partially driven by limited LNG inflows. UK storage levels remain healthy, with many sites nearing or reaching capacity, which should help mitigate the risks of winter supply shocks. Individual storage levels across major sites like Aldbrough, Hornsea, and Isle of Grain demonstrate solid buffers, keeping the UK well-positioned for anticipated demand spikes. Furthermore, two LNG cargoes are inbound, scheduled to arrive over the weekend, which should provide additional flexibility. As the UK braces for colder weather, short-term outlooks are centered on balancing renewable integration, currency fluctuations, and any shifts in natural gas flows from European neighbors. Continued monitoring of US and European energy policies will also be critical, as the global landscape remains dynamic.

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November 15th, 2024, brings significant insights into the UK energy market, marked by dynamic movements across gas, power, and related sectors. Natural gas prices surged yesterday, with the NBP day-ahead closing at 116.75 p/therm, a notable uptick driven by developments in Europe. This rise followed news that Austria’s OMV secured a victory in its arbitration case against Gazprom Export, claiming EUR 230 million in compensation. The market reacted with caution, considering the potential repercussions for Russian gas flows to Austria. Adding to the bullish sentiment, forecasts for colder-than-average temperatures and stable Norwegian supply at 341 mcm/day lent support. UK power prices mirrored this upward trajectory, closing the day at £101.00/MWh for day-ahead baseload. The current energy landscape reflects the strain of recent ‘dunkelflaute’ conditions, periods with minimal solar and increased cloud cover, which have increased reliance on gas-fired generation. However, brighter prospects are on the horizon as wind speeds are forecasted to surpass seasonal norms, potentially alleviating gas burn and providing some price relief. In the realm of oil, Brent crude edged up slightly to settle at $72.56 per barrel, marking steady performance amid a cautious market mood. Meanwhile, the carbon market saw EUA December 2024 contracts climb to €68.27/tonne, reflecting ongoing demand for allowances. The currency front also witnessed minor shifts, with GBP/EUR strengthening to 1.2025. This adjustment aligns with broader market volatility, influenced by energy dynamics and economic expectations. Looking ahead, the UK system began the day long by 7 mcm/day, underpinned by average temperatures and moderated LDZ demand. Importantly, four LNG cargoes are anticipated to arrive in the coming weeks, which should bolster supply and provide some market stability. Nuclear capacity remains a focal point, currently at 4.7 GW, though this is expected to decline by November 25th due to scheduled maintenance affecting two reactors. Such developments could tighten electricity supply, highlighting the balance between renewable contributions and reliance on traditional energy sources. The next few days will be critical in observing how the market responds to evolving temperature forecasts, LNG inflows, and shifting power generation patterns. Stakeholders will keep a close eye on whether wind generation meets expectations, easing the pressure on gas and supporting a more balanced power mix. As we approach winter, market participants must remain vigilant, navigating the complexities of energy supply, demand, and geopolitical influences.

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Daily Energy Report November 8th: A cool start to the day finds UK energy markets bracing for lower-than-average temperatures across Europe, impacting both gas and power prices. The UK gas system began the morning undersupplied by 10 mcm/day, with colder weather set to intensify from mid-November. Natural gas for power demand is lower on the day-ahead, as wind generation rises, offsetting the need for gas-fired power production. LNG supplies are stable at 33 mcm/day, with three cargoes scheduled for arrival soon, helping to maintain a steady flow of imports into the UK and Northwest Europe. Norwegian exports remain consistent at 331 mcm/day, despite minor disruptions due to unplanned maintenance at key sites. The UK Day-Ahead gas price is at 103.65 p/therm, a slight rise compared to previous days as the seasonal temperature drop begins to reflect in pricing. Expectations for lower-than-normal temperatures, particularly from November 13th onward, are feeding into this price firming. Curve contracts also strengthened, driven partly by broader market influences, including movements in the oil markets and post-election volatility in the US. In parallel, Pan-European gas storage levels remain robust at 94.43%, a comforting buffer as winter demand looms. On the power side, UK Day-Ahead baseload is trading at £96.10/MWh, with high wind generation easing some pressure on gas demand for electricity production. Nuclear output remains steady at 4.7 GW, though two reactors remain offline, accounting for a total of 1.2 GW in curtailed capacity. Wind is expected to continue to play a critical role in balancing the grid over the coming days, while solar output, currently low, is anticipated to exceed normal levels starting Monday. Commodities also show price adjustments: Brent crude for December is up to $75.63 per barrel, while coal for 2025 delivery sits at $121.12/tonne, reflecting steady demand expectations. Carbon pricing for EUAs has climbed to €66.04/tonne, with the UK ETS at £38.00/tonne, underscoring the ongoing pressure on carbon markets amid seasonal adjustments and higher demand forecasts. On the currency front, the pound has seen minor movement, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.2021 and GBP/USD at 1.2986. This currency stability aids in smoothing import costs, particularly for gas, but shifts in either direction remain likely as winter demand and international market conditions evolve. Today’s market data highlights the intricate balance of supply and demand factors at play as the UK and Europe prepare for colder weather and a potential uptick in heating and power requirements. As conditions shift in the coming days, these factors will continue to define energy prices and trading behaviors across the UK and beyond.

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9th January 2025: UK Energy Market Overview - Today’s energy markets provide a compelling narrative amidst the interplay of shifting weather forecasts, LNG arrivals, and generation dynamics. After yesterday’s bearish sentiment that softened spot prices across Europe, the market today reflects nuanced movements influenced by ongoing winter conditions and supply factors. Gas markets opened with near-curve prices declining due to milder weather forecasts, yet the UK system faces a 13 mcm/day undersupply, driven by increased LDZ demand in the current cold snap. However, the arrival of two LNG cargoes today, both from the United States, signals robust replenishment efforts across Northwest Europe, with regional storage levels at 68%. In the power sector, day-ahead prices saw significant gains despite a broader downward trend across the curve. The surge is tied to reduced wind power output and the ongoing outages on key interconnectors, Eleclink and BritNed, expected to return to service in four weeks. These outages compound the challenges of balancing the grid during periods of subdued renewable output. Yesterday, the UK’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) cancelled an electricity margin notice that highlighted potential generation shortfalls. This comes in a year where wind power achieved a historic milestone as the largest contributor to UK electricity generation in 2024, accounting for 30% of the mix and underscoring the growing role of renewables in the energy landscape. Globally, Brent crude trades at $76.16 per barrel, while carbon prices remain steady at €72.17 (EUA Dec 25). Currency movements show the pound weakening slightly against the euro and dollar, trading at £1.1990/€ and £1.2362/$ respectively. As winter progresses, the market remains reactive to weather-driven demand shifts, LNG flows, and storage dynamics. The continued interplay of these factors will define the energy landscape in the weeks ahead.

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Today the UK #energy #market continues to be shaped by dynamic fluctuations in #electricity and #gas prices, driven by both domestic factors and broader global energy trends. Electricity Prices: The UK's electricity market has seen varied movements in pricing across different contracts. The UK Day-Ahead (DA) Base price for electricity settled at £80.64 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on August 13, 2024, reflecting a slight increase compared to previous settlements. This trend is consistent with a broader rise across spot and forward contracts, indicating potential upward pressure on prices as we approach the winter months. Gas Prices: Natural gas prices in the UK have shown a similar pattern of slight declines and increases across various contracts. The National Balancing Point (NBP) Day-Ahead price for gas stood at 84.00 pence per therm on August 13, 2024, slightly down from the previous day. However, forward contracts for the upcoming winter months remain higher, with November 2024 gas prices at 109.25 pence per therm. This reflects ongoing concerns about supply constraints and the need for storage filling ahead of the colder season. Market Influences: Several factors have influenced these price movements. The UK's electricity prices are partially affected by the availability of imports from Norway and the operational status of domestic facilities, including scheduled maintenance outages. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has continued to cast uncertainty over gas flows from Russia, which has a ripple effect across European gas markets. Looking Ahead: As we move towards the winter of 2024-2025, market participants are keeping a close eye on storage levels and import capacities, which will play critical roles in determining the trajectory of energy prices. The European Commission's target of achieving a 90% fill rate for gas storage by November 1, 2024, adds an additional layer of strategic importance to these developments. In summary, while electricity prices in the UK have experienced moderate gains, gas prices continue to fluctuate with an overall upward trend for the winter months. Stakeholders in the energy market should remain vigilant to these developments as they plan for the rest of the year​.

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Daily #Buisness #Energy Report 13th December 2024: A market overview marked by milder forecasts and shifting dynamics. Today’s energy markets reflect a dynamic interplay of factors, with notable movements across gas and power prices. The UK's NBP day-ahead gas prices settled at 105.75 p/therm, down slightly due to warmer weather forecasts curbing demand, while power prices followed suit, with the UK day-ahead baseload closing at £150.98/MWh, a significant drop from yesterday. The UK's system opened with a 4 mcm/day shortfall this morning, impacted by reduced Norwegian flows, an outage at the Rough storage facility (cutting 2.5 mcm/day until noon), and moderated MRS withdrawals. LNG sendout continues robustly at around 100 mcm/day, with 11 LNG cargoes expected by early January. Internationally, muted Asian demand persists as high prices deter Chinese buyers despite cold snaps, particularly in South Korea. In Europe, Northwest regions anticipate warmer-than-average temperatures through January, aligning with predictions for the UK where conditions remain near seasonal norms. UK power prices mirrored gas trends, with baseload and peak contracts softening. Increased nuclear capacity from France, exceeding 52 GW after years of underperformance, has also helped stabilise continental markets. Additionally, renewable generation continues to complement the UK's supply mix, aided by strong interconnector performance. Oil prices remain stable, with Brent settling at $73.41/bbl, while coal fell slightly to $112.66/tonne. Carbon pricing saw a dip, with EUA Dec-24 at €66.10/tonne. In currency markets, the GBP strengthened slightly against the Euro, trading at 1.2132 GBP/EUR. As we approach the weekend, warmer weather forecasts and robust LNG supplies are likely to maintain pressure on short-term gas and power prices. The energy landscape is poised for further volatility amid global supply adjustments and regional demand patterns. Stay tuned for how these developments evolve.

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For over two decades, the UK has been a key market for us — and we are dedicated to the country, with ambitious plans for deepening our engagement and making transformative investments.    With the announcement of a new Industrial Strategy focused on clean energy as a key growth sector, the new government wants to play a constructive, strategic role in the economy. Working in partnership with the private sector to drive forward its mission for economic growth and the ambitious plan to achieve clean power by 2030. This week’s International Investment Summit in London provided a valuable opportunity to discuss this with government officials, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and industry executives.    As the leading power generator and a leading renewables developer in the UK, we are already generating electricity for around 12 million homes with an installed capacity of almost 10 GW.     With 2.2 GW of renewables currently under construction across offshore and onshore wind, solar, and storage, we intend to invest around €8 billion net until the end of this decade in developing clean energy projects in the UK and further strengthening our presence. Meanwhile, we are helping to unlock a green economy in the UK by generating high-quality jobs, strengthening supply chains, and fostering thriving local communities.    I would like to thank everyone involved in the organisation of this excellent summit, as well as Prime Minister Keir Starmer, State Secretary Ed Miliband from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and Jonathan Reynolds MP, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Sarah Jones, Minister for Industry, and Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales, for the valuable exchange. 📷: Jonathan Brad /PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

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                 Morning Briefing 13/11/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 38.9GW and due to peak this evening at 41.8GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £159 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £113.00 in the 1hr and £111.24 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 4.0W and due to stay at similar levels throughout the day before climbing up to 13.5GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.5GW at 11am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £126.99/MWh with gas providing 59.2%/21.38GW, wind providing 14.7%/5.30GW, solar providing 2.4%/0.87GW and nuclear providing 13.3%/4.80GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.00p/th (3.72p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £107.00/MWh (10.70p/KWh)   Month ahead (Dec 24) ·Dec NBP gas is currently down 1.90% at 110.29p/th (3.76p/KWh). ·Dec TTF gas is currently down 2.50% at €43.10MWh. ·Dec UK Baseload currently at £92.00/MWh (9.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were mixed yesterday, rising and falling throughout the day, with the DA price up 1.00% as some below normal temps gave some support to prices. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was up 1.53% as the increased gas demand for heating meant storage stocks were being withdrawn and kept the market on its toes.    ·UK power prices were also mixed, with the DA price down just 0.07% as forecast renewables and demand looked to stay at similar levels today. Along the curve, contracts were mixed, with the Q1 25 contract up 0.59% as the forecast of some colder weather next week, although the forecast of surging wind power helped to keep a lid on some prices. ·Ofgem has approved five undersea energy projects to enhance the UK’s clean energy and energy security, potentially positioning it as a net exporter by 2030 - three of them are interconnectors that will add nearly 3GW of capacity by linking the UK with Germany, Ireland, and Scotland ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages this morning with total exports at 345.0mcm. ·Oil prices were slightly up this morning, underpinned by signs of near term supply tightness but held near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.   ·Latest forecasts show potential for temps next week to be below seasonal norms. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due by 25th November. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 112.43p/th (3.84p/KWh) up 1.69% DoD* o   Q1 25 111.96p/th (3.82p/KWh) up 1.53% DoD o   Summer 25 103.73p/th (3.54p/KWh) up 1.13% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £92.30/MWh (9.23p/KWh) up 0.49% DoD* o   Q1 25 £95.43MWh (9.54p/KWh) up 0.59% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.18MWh (8.02p/KWh) down 0.11% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #winter

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Really value how Energy Link Ltd takes a plain English approach to explaining the impact of dispatchable demand versus voluntary industrial demand response, and what this means for price signals in the #market in the move to greater #renewable #electricity

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Morning Briefing 11/09/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 28.1GW and due to peak this evening at 33.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £10 - £112 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £50.04 in the 1hr and £54.88 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently approx. 2GW under forecast at 11.9GW and meant to peak at 14.9GW later today before slowly dropping to 6.5GW tomorrow evening. Solar is due to peak at 6.7GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £78.14/MWh with gas providing 11.4%/3.63GW, wind providing 48.0%/15.27GW, solar providing 7.6%/2.41GW and nuclear providing 15.3%/4.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 86.90p/th (2.97p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £79.00/MWh (7.90p/KWh)   Month ahead (Oct 24) ·Oct NBP gas is currently up 1.18% at 85.58p/th (2.92p/KWh). ·Oct TTF gas is currently up 0.90% at €35.60MWh. ·Oct UK Baseload closed at £72.00/MWh (7.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices fell to a 5 week low yesterday, with the DA down 4.21% with the slump seeming to be drive by the drop in oil prices which as helped to curb the cost of LNG in Asia. Along the curve, the Win24 was down 4.62% due to the bearish fundamentals and the news that Hurricane Francine appeared to be moving away from three key US LNG facilities.   ·UK power prices evolved differently, with the DA price climbing 40.96% due to the forecast drop in wind generation compared to Monday. Along the curve, the Win24 contract was down 3.42% with the gas sentiment and drop in the carbon market adding further pressure alongside the other bearish fundamentals. ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages with total flows reduced due to planned maintenance at 192.8MSm. ·Oil prices are positive this morning, paring some of yesterdays losses, as concerns about Hurricane Francine disrupting output in the US outweighed worries about weak global demand.   ·Latest forecasts show temps to be a few degrees under seasonal norms for the coming days but then be back around norms at the weekend. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 84.58p/th (2.89p/KWh) down 5.96% DoD* o   Q4 24 91.96p/th (3.14p/KWh) down 4.97% DoD o   Winter 24 95.55p/th (3.26p/KWh) down 4.62% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £72.65/MWh (7.27p/KWh) down 4.22% DoD* o   Q4 24 £80.99MWh (8.10p/KWh) down 3.65% DoD o   Winter 24 £84.89MWh (8.49p/KWh) down 3.42% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #oil #renewables #lng #norway

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Could low valuations for #CleanEnergyGroups be hampering #EnergyTransition??? Could #Subsidies and intermitent #LowElectricityPrices be having any influence on these low valuations???

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This year's 2024 Energy Institute report was released thsi week and makes for very sobering reading. Outside of electricity supply change, 2023 was a disaster year for fossil fuel supply and use, the consequential CO2 emissions and climate change impact. Some of the findings: 🏭 2023 was a year of energy production and consumption records across the board with most markets returning to at least their 2019 pre-COVID long term trends as supply chain issues finally eased. 🛢 Oil consumption in particular rebounded strongly, largely on the back of China relaxing its zero-COVID lockdown policies. Although demand for gas remained flat, consumption of crude oil broke through the 100 million barrels per day level for the first time ever 🚬 Coal demand beat the previous year’s record level. 🤞 Consumption of renewable energy grew at six times the rate of total primary energy, and electricity demand grew 25% faster than total primary energy consumption. 🌀 Greenhouse gas emissions from energy use, industrial processes, flaring and methane (in carbon dioxide equivalent terms) increased 2.1% to exceed the record level set in 2022. 😕 For the first time ever, energy-related emissions exceeded the 40 GtCO2e level, with emissions from the direct use of energy breaching 35 GtCO2e for the first time ever. 🔥 Carbon dioxide emissions from flaring increased by 7% along with emissions from methane and industrial processes that also increased by over 5%.

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             Morning Briefing 15/10/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 34.7GW and due to peak this evening at 37.1GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £57 - £130 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £87.12 in the 1hr and £87.20 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 10.0GW and due to climb to 16.4GW this evening and then slowly fall to 12.2GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 3.0GW at 1pm. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £104.00/MWh with gas providing 55.9%/19.56GW, wind providing 13.1%/4.60GW, solar providing 0.9%/0.33GW and nuclear providing 11.1%/3.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 97.00p/th (3.31p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £86.00/MWh (8.60p/KWh)   Month ahead (Nov 24) ·Nov NBP gas is currently down 2.65% at 98.29p/th (3.35p/KWh). ·Nov TTF gas is currently down 2.34% at €39.61MWh. ·Nov UK Baseload currently trading at £88.00/MWh (8.80p/KWh) ·UK gas prices rebounded slightly yesterday, with the DA price up 1.24%, mainly supported by lower Norwegian supply due to some unplanned outages compared to Friday. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was up 1.13%, as the supply worries gave support. Despite this, EU has inventories are just shy of 95% and the economic data continues to be bearish. ·UK power prices were also bullish, with the DA price up 14.51% as demand increase from the weekend. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was up 1.59%, tracking carbon and gas prices and potentially on the worry of lower French nuclear supply over Winter after it fell to 25GW over the weekend. ·The UK's National Energy System Operator issued a Capacity Market Notice on Monday, 14th October 2024, warning of a potential supply-demand shortfall. The notice, initially set for 4:30 p.m., was cancelled at 2:05 p.m. ·According to Gassco AS, there are ongoing unplanned outages at Gullfaks and Oseberg this morning, with a combined unavailable capacity of 12.9mcm/d, with total exports at 325.6MSm. · Oil prices are down over 4% this morning to a near two week low on the back of a weaker OPEC demand outlook and after a media report said Israel is willing not to strike Iranian oil targets, which eased fears of a supply disruption.      ·Latest forecasts show temps to rise above seasonal norms this week and stay above till 27th Oct. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Mondays close -  o   Month ahead 100.86p/th (3.44p/KWh) up 1.50% DoD* o   Q1 25 104.68p/th (3.57p/KWh) up 1.13% DoD o   Summer 25 96.19p/th (3.28p/KWh) up 1.50% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Mondays close – o   Month ahead £87.75/MWh (8.78p/KWh) up 2.63% DoD* o   Q1 25 £91.75MWh (9.18p/KWh) up 1.59% DoD o   Summer 25 £76.96MWh (7.70p/KWh) up 2.60% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #norway #oil

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