Kurti iii X nus Volume 26, Number 3, Fall 1983 SSI ^i Offshore Oil & Gas Oceanus The Magazine of Marine Science and Policy Volume 26, Number 3, Fall 1983 Paul R. Ryan,d/for Michael B. Downing, Assistant Editor Elizabeth Miller, Editorial Assistant Polly Shaw,/\dverf/s/ng lisa K. H ughes, Summer In tern 1930 Editorial Advisory Board Henry Charnock, Professor of Physical Oceanography, University of Southampton, England Edward D. Goldberg, Professor of Chemistry, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Gotthilf Hempel, Director of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar Research, West Germany Charles D. Hollister, Dean of Graduate Studies, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution John Imbrie, Henry L Doherty Professor of Oceanography, Brown University John A. Knauss, Provost for Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island Arthur E. Maxwell, Director of the Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas Robert V. Ormes,/\ssoc/afe Publisher, Science Timothy R. Parsons, Professor, Institute of Oceanography, University of British Columbia, Canada Allan R. Robinson, Gordon McKay Professor of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Harvard University David A. Ross, Senior Scientist, Department of Geology and Geophysics; Sea Grant Coordinator; and Director of the Marine Policy and Ocean Management Program, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Published by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Charles F. Adams, Chairman, Board of Trustees Paul M. Eye, President of the Corporation James S. Coles, President of the Associates John H. Steele, Director of the Institution The views expressed in Oceanus are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Permission to photocopy for internal or personal use or the internal or personal use of specific clients is granted by Oceanus magazine to libraries and other users registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), provided that the base fee of $2.00 per copy of the article, plus .05 per page is paid directly to CCC, 21 Congress Street, Salem, MA 01970. Special requests should be addressed to Oceanus magazine. ISSN 0029-8182/83 $2.00 + .05 Editorial correspondence: Oceanus magazine, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543. Telephone (617) 548-1400, ext. 2386. Subscription correspondence: All subscriptions, single copy orders, and change-of-address information should be addressed to Oceanus Subscription Department, 1440 Main Street, Waltham, MA 02254. Telephone (617) 893-3800, ext. 258. Please make checks payable to Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Subscription rate: $20 for one year. Subscribers outside the U.S. add $3 per year handling charge; checks accompanying foreign orders must be payable in U.S. currency and drawn on a U.S. bank. Current copy price, $4.75; forty percent discount on current copy orders of five or more. When sending change of address, please include mailing label. Claims for missing numbers will not be honored later than 3 months after publication; foreign claims, 5 months. For information on back issues, see inside back cover. Postmaster: Please send Form 3579 to Oceanus, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543. ive Gift of the Sea This Season 1930 come aboard yourself now! Offshore Oil and Gas Future >olitical, and environmental Iheaper to produce oil from Ifrom asphalt sands or oil shales. [Petroleum Prospects and Seas lie Sea treaty may pose obstacles |p waters of potentially oil-rich jntal margins. rsical Techniques (Exploration ]ues have been developed theory from academic Jmology from industry, allowing [deeper into the earth with much in was possible with older larine Petroleum Seeps ?n seeping naturally into the from the seatloorfor mi II ions of Ire attracting renewed attention Issible indicators of leum reserves. Bay froject \\ Concerns About jling Muddy Issues r/'e Itain environmental safeguards [re oil operations continue to be carried out in a responsible manner. 40 How Undiscovered Oil Is Estimated by John Steinhart and Mark Bultman The well-defined methods for estimating undiscovered reserves project a rather bleak future for U.S. oil discovery. 46 Domestic Options to Offshore Oil and Gas by Don E. Kash The nation needs to pursue both offshore oil and other domestic liquid-fuel sources if it is to avoid becoming increasingly dependent on imports. Ruth Dixon Turner Benthic Biologist by Michael B. Downing At 69, the first woman to dive in Alvin is still at it it being diving to collect benthic wood borers tor study at Harvard's Museum of Comparative Zoology. Critical Antarctic Issues Emerging by Lee A. Kim ball UN debate seen certain this Fall on potential mineral wealth in Antarctica. Reagan Stand 61 on LOS Treaty Could Prove Costly by Robert E. Sower? Strait transit and marine science are examples of issues where U.S. could stand to lose heavily. 64 Cover: Oil platform off Spain. Photo by Daniele Pellegrini, PR. Back Cover: Offshore roustabout, Madagorda Bay, Texas. Photo by Don Getsug, PR. Copyright 1983 by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Oceanus (ISSN 0029-8182) is published quarterly by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543. Second-class postage paid at Falmouth, Massachusetts, and additional mailing points. Oceanus The Magazine of Marine Science and Policy Volume 26, Number 3, Fall 1983 Paul R. Ryan,d/'for Michael B. Downing, Assistant Editor Elizabeth Miller, Editorial Assistant Polly Shaw, Advertising lisa K. Hughes, Summer Intern Editorial Advisory Board Henry Charnock, Professor of Physical Oceanography, University ofSouthamp Edward D. Goldberg, Professor of Chemistry, Scripps Institution ofOceanograf Gotthilf Hempel, Director of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar Research, W Charles D. Hollister, Dean of Graduate Studies, Woods Hole Oceanographic In John Imbrie, Henry L. Doherty Professor of Oceanography, Brown University John A. Knauss, Provost for Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island Arthur E. Maxwell, Director of the Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas Robert V. Ormes, Associate Publisher, Science Timothy R. Parsons, Professor, Institute of Oceanography, University of British Allan R. Robinson, Gordon McKay Professor of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Hi David A. Ross, Senior Scientist, Department of Geology and Geophysics; Sea G Director of the Marine Policy and Ocean Management Program, Woods Hole O Institution Published by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Charles F. Adams, Chairman, Board of Trustees Paul M. Fye, President of the Corporation James S. Coles, President of the Associates John H. Steele, Director of the Institution The views expressed in Oceanus are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Pen inte inte clie ma use Cop (CC of$ plU! CC( MA be a maj issr HAVE THE SUBSCRIPTION COUPONS BEEN DETACHED? If someone else has made use of the coupons attached to this card, you can still subscribe. Just send a check- -$20 for one year (four issues), $35 for two, $50 for three* -to this address: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole, Mass. 02543 Please make check payable to Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 1930 'Outside U.S. rates are $23 for one year, $41 for two, $59 for three. Checks for foreign orders must be payable in U.S. dollars and drawn on a U.S. bank. Editorial correspondence: Oceanus magazine, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543. Telephone (617) 548-1400, ext. 2386. Subscription correspondence: All subscriptions, single copy orders, and change-of-address information should be addressed to Oceanus Subscription Department, 1440 Main Street, Waltham, MA 02254. Telephone (617) 893-3800, ext. 258. Please make checks payable to Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Subscription rate: $20 for one year. Subscribers outside the U.S. add$3per year handling charge; checks accompanying foreign orders must be payable in U.S. currency and drawn on a U.S. bank. Current copy price, $4.75; forty percent discount on current copy orders of five or more. When sending change of address, please include mailing label. Claims for missing numbers will not be honored later than 3 months after publication; foreign claims, 5 months. For information on back issues, see inside back cover. Postmaster: Please send Form 3579 to Oceanus, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543. i .*. . Comment o Introduction: Offshore Oil and Gas ^ Past, Present, Future by John M. Hunt Despite economic, political, and environmental problems, it is still cheaper to produce oil from offshore fields than from asphalt sands or oil shales. q Deep-Water Petroleum Prospects " of the Oceans and Seas by Hollis D. Hedberg Flaws in the Law of the Sea treaty may pose obstacles to drilling in the deep waters of potentially oil-rich areas on the continental margins. * 7 New Geophysical Techniques ' ' for Offshore Exploration by Manik Talwani New seismic techniques have been developed recently that borrow theory from academic institutions and technology from industry, allowing scientists to explore deeper into the earth with much greater precision than was possible with older seismic methods. 24 Natural Submarine Petroleum Seeps by Robert B. Spies Oil and gas have been seeping naturally into the marine environment from the seafloor for millions of years. These seeps are attracting renewed attention from scientists as possible indicators of undiscovered petroleum reserves. 30 The Prudhoe Bay Waterf lood Project - ~ 32 Environmental Concerns About Offshore Drilling Muddy Issues by Charles A. Menzie It is essential to maintain environmental safeguards to ensure that offshore oil operations continue to be carried out in a responsible manner. 40 How Undiscovered Oil Is Estimated by John Steinhart and Mark Bultman The well-defined methods tor estimating undiscovered reserves project a rather bleak future for U.S. oil discovery. 46 Domestic Options to Offshore Oil and Gas by Don E. Kash The nation needs to pursue both offshore oil and other domestic liquid-fuel sources if it is to avoid becoming increasingly dependent on imports. 53 Ruth Dixon Turner Benthic Biologist by Michael B. Downing At 69, the first woman to dive \nAlvin is still at it it being diving to collect benthic wood borers tor study at Harvard's Museum of Comparative Zoology. 57 Critical Antarctic Issues Emerging by Lee A. Kim ball UN debate seen certain this Fall on potential mineral wealth in Antarctica. Reagan Stand 61 on LOS Treaty Could Prove Costly by Robert E. Bowen Strait transit and marine science are examples of issues where U.S. could stand to lose heavily. 64 Cover: Oil platform oft Spain. Photo by Daniele Pellegrini, PR. Back Cover: Offshore roustabout, Madagorda Bay, Texas. Photo by Don Getsug, PR. Copyright 1983 by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Oceanus (ISSN 0029-8182) is published quarterly by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543. Second-class postage paid at Falmouth, Massachusetts, and additional mailing points. v^oncerns about the potential effects of oil and gas exploration activities on Georges Bank one of the most productive commercial fisheries areas in the world led to the initiation of the Georges Bank Monitoring Program (GBMP) in July, 1981 , when drilling first began on the Bank. The first eight exploratory wells drilled on Georges Bank were completed by May, 1982. All were classified as dry holes. We now have the results of the first year of monitoring, and, although eight wells are considered a minimal observational test, there were no biological changes in the benthic community that could be attributed to drilling activity. The GBMP was designed to address the concerns related to the initial exploratory phase of Georges Bank development. Specifically, the objectives of the program are to "determine the fate of discharges (primarily drilling fluids and cuttings) from exploratory drilling platforms in Lease Area 42 and to assess the effects of these discharges on benthic species and communities on Georges Bank and potential depositional areas for drilling fluids and cuttings in submarine canyons and the Outer Continental Shelf south of eastern New England." The first offering of lease tracts for exploratory drillingon Georges Bank (Lease Sale42) took place in December, 1979. In this offering a total of 63 blocks on the Bank were leased by major oil companies or consortia. Two additional lease offerings are scheduled for the North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), including portions of Georges Bank - Lease Sale 52 (south-central and southwest portion of the bank) and the North Atlantic Lease Offering, set for February, 1984 (which includes the remainder of the Bank as well as areas in deeper water, exceeding 2,000 meters). The major portion of the monitoring program - established by the Minerals Management Service of the Department of the Interior under the recommendations of the Biological Task Force for OCS Lease Sale 42 is being performed by Battelle New England Marine Research Laboratory and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. This research addresses the question of whether populations of animals living in the bottom sediments (benthic infauna) change in selected regions of Georges Bank and elsewhere during various stages of oil and gas exploration. It also questions whether these changes can be related to observed changes in the concentrations of pollutants discharged from exploratory platforms. A recently released preliminary report - covering the first year of infauna monitoring (783 taxa of benthic invertebrates identified of which 40 percent were polychaetes) concluded that no biological impacts from drilling activities could be detected at the 46 stations established on or adjacent to the Bank. In a separate study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), barium, a major element in drilling muds, was found in high concentrations at several stations near a drilling rig and in decreasing quantities as distance from the rig increased. Interestingly, 29 of the 46 biological stations were near this rig. Postdrilling concentrations of barium were found to be within the range of predrilling concentrations measured at other locations on the Bank. Concentrations of other metals measured were low and characteristic of unpolluted coarse-grain sediment in other Continental Shelf areas. A high level of lead was found at one station, but it was attributed to the use of tetraethyl lead in gasoline, which began in 1924. The station affected is downwind of the industrialized northeastern United States, and is considered a chronic sink for various pollutants. The preliminary Benthic Infauna Report recommended that biological and chemical sampling continue at those stations where elevated concentrations of barium were detected. It also urged that sampling be continued at all stations in order to establish normal seasonal patterns of population fluctuations. The GBMP initially was conceived as a three-year program. * * * The results of another monitoring program that will be of interest to readers of this issue have recently been published. They concern the fate of /Amoco Cadiz oil. The supertanker, after losing steerage in the western English Channel, fetched up on rocks during extremely stormy weather near the small French fishing village of Portsall, Brittany, on March 16, 1978. During the next two weeks, the entire cargo of light Arabian and Iranian crude oils and a small amount of bunker C fuel, totaling 223,000 metric tons, was lost to the rough channel waters. The/Amoco Cadiz is the largest tanker spill on record. In a recent article in Science magazine, Erich R. Grundlach, a Senior Scientist with the Research Planning Institute in Columbia, South Carolina, along with a number of colleagues, synthesizes the extensive data on the physical-chemical fate of the spilled oil during the three years after the spill. Grundlach and his colleagues concluded that, of the total oil lost by the tanker, 30,000 tons (13.5 percent) rapidly became incorporated in the water column, 18,000 tons (8 percent) were deposited in subtidal sediments, 62,000 tons (28 percent) washed into the intertidal zone, and 67,000 tons (30 percent) evaporated. While at sea, it was estimated that 10,000 tons of oil were degraded microbiologically. The main conclusion drawn from the study was that, after three years, "most of the obvious effects of the spill have passed, although hydrocarbon concentrations remain elevated in those estuaries and marshes that were initially most heavily oiled." Of the 62,000 tons of oil that came ashore, 25,000 tons were collected by thousands of cleanup workers. Six weeks after the spill only 10,000 tons remained; the most efficient cleansing agents were believed to be waves, tidal action, and microbial action. Periodic sampling of sediment in several nearby bays indicated that almost all of the oil contamination was gone within 18 months. Paul R. Ryan Among the first wells drilled over water are these in the Summer/and field, California. Just south of Santa Barbara, this 100-acre field produced from a depth of 210 feet. The photo was taken circa 1920. (Courtesy of World Oil) Introduction: Offshore Oil and Gas Past, Present, and Future by John M. Hunt I he first offshore petroleum production was from extensions of existing oil fields that were discovered along the coastlines of lakes, inland seas, and oceans. Around 1897, piers were extended seaward from the coast of Santa Barbara, California, to support wells drilled in a field bordering the coast. At the same time, piled wooden trestles were being extended into the Caspian Sea from Russia's prolific coastal oil fields at Baku. In 1911, Gulf Refining built a cypress platform in Caddo Lake, Louisiana, to support a steam-driven rotary drilling rig. By 1923, piled wooden platforms were being built all along the east coast of Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, and in the lake and marsh areas of Louisiana. Submerged barges also were used widely as drilling platforms in Louisiana, Lake Maracaibo, and the Caspian Sea. Most of these activities were in water depths of less than 25 feet. The first completely offshore well was drilled in 1937 by the Superior and Pure Oil companies one mile off the coast of Cameron Parish, Louisiana. At the end of the next decade the Kerr-McGee Oil Company was drilling and producing oil out of sight of land in Ship Shoal Block 32 off Louisiana. By 1953, Congress had defined the ownership of United States offshore areas, and the first leases in the Gulf of Mexico were issued the following year. During the late 1950s, drilling ships and platforms were cutting holes under water depths of more than 200 feet. By 1968, the water depths exceeded 1,000 feet. Then, in January of 1983, the drill sh\p Discoverer Seven Seas drilled a well in 5,264 feet of water, completing it at a sediment depth of 6,165 feet, in the Mediterranean Sea. Today, drilling ships can work in 10,000 feet (3,000 meters) of water. The depths referred to previously are for conventional drilling, in which a riser system is used to circulate drilling mud and rock cuttings from the bottom of the hole up to the rig floor. In the standard riser system, a drill pipe with the rock drill mounted on the end is lowered inside a larger pipe called the riser, which extends into the seafloor. Clean drilling mud is pumped down the center of the drill pipe and out through the drill bit at the bottom of the hole. It picks up the rock cuttings that have been broken off by the bit and carries them up through the annular space between the drill pipe and the outer riser. At the surface, the mud and cuttings pass through a screen, separating the cuttings from the mud, which returns down the center of the drill pipe. Beside the drill and riser pipes, there is a third, larger-diameter pipe, called the casing, which is cemented approximately 100 feet into the seafloor to receive the drill and riser. It contains several valves in a Christmas-tree-like arrangement that can be closed by remote control. This safety feature operates when the drill encounters a deep high-pressure zone that might otherwise blow the entire string of drill pipe out of the hole. When a hole is drilled into sedimentary rock, the pressure at the bottom of the hole normally is equal to the pressure of a column of water of the same height. Oil and gas, however, are frequently found in overpressured rocks; that is, rocks in which the pressure is one-and-a-half to two times that of a column of water. To prevent blowouts, the driller makes the drilling mud very heavy by adding barium sulfate, a powder that is heavier than cement powder. It the mud is too heavy, however, it will prevent the discovery of an oil or gas zone by pushing the hydrocarbons back into the formation so that they are not seen in the circulating mud. Consequently, the driller monitors a narrow line by keeping the mud weight slightly above the pressure at the bottom of the hole. If a sudden high pressure begins to lift the entire drill pipe, the gauge measuring the weight of the drill string will move to zero. The driller must instantly clamp shut the Christmas-tree valves and increase the weight of the mud. In the infamous Santa Barbara oil spill of 1969, the valves were closed instantly when high pressure was encountered. The pressure was so great, however, that oil and mud broke through the unconsolidated Pleistocene sediment outside the outer well casing. Once outside the casing, there was nothing to control its movement to the surface. Today, a preventive measure is taken in dangerous high-pressure areas to avoid such spills. The outer casing is extended beyond the normal 100 feet, several hundred feet into the sediment. The drilling ship Glomar Challenger of the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) has drilled holes in water depths of 23,000 feet. However, these are open holes, with no riser systems, no casings, and no means of shutting off a blowout. Seawater is pumped down through the drill pipe, after which it comes out Lagunillas field in Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, circa 1930. This project was the model for offshore-technology development. (Photo by C. C. McDermond/World Oil) Breakout of Oil, Gas Supply Under the National Energy Policy Program includes South Alaska production of about 200,000 b/d in 1 980, increasing to 400,000 b/d by 2000, and North Alaska production of 1 .5 million b/d in 1 980 and 1 .8 million b/d in 2000. tlncremental tertiary production. California heavy oil currently produced with thermal recovery techniques included under conventional Lower 48. Ranges on totals don't equal the sum of ranges for each category because of the low likelihood that all categories would simultaneously equal their low or high value. 11 Net U.S. oil imports, excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve and imports by U.S. territories. Dlncludes South Alaska production of about 200 billion cu ft/year in 1 980, increasing to 500 billion cu ft/year by 2000. , Incremental production from tight sands, Devonian shale, coal bed methane, and geopressurized methane. Tight sands production from previously developed areas (900 billion cu ft in 1980). Included under conventional Lower 48. ^Synthetic gas from oil and coal. Source: Department of Energy. of the hole back into the ocean. The rock is cored rather than broken up into small cuttings. The cores are periodically pulled up through the center of the drill pipe and stored on the ship. The few cuttings obtained when the drill is not coring are swept out of the hole onto the seafloor. No Limit There is really no limit to the water depth in which an open hole can be drilled. There is a limit with conventional drilling, due to the tension on the riser system and the weight of the drill string. Imagine that you have a plastic straw extending from the top of the Empire State Building to the ground. Now you rotate the straw. It will twist and stretch, undergoing a considerable amount of stress. The weight of a mile-long drill pipe, plus riser, puts tremendous stress on the supporting rig, even though this is partially offset by the buoyant effect of water. It is not possible to use extremely heavy mud in deep-water drill ing because there is no side support for the pipe. Inside the hole, however, the surrounding rock wall will prevent the collapse of the pipe. The heavy mud is what actually prevents high-pressure formations from blowing out. On land, the mud may weigh 18 pounds per gallon. Offshore, in thousands of feet of water, drillers may be limited to less than 10-pounds- per-gallon mud density unless several thousand feet of sediments are penetrated. This is why shallow high-pressure zones are particularly dangerous 120 Unconventional oil and gas Conventional oil Conventional natural gas 1960 1970 I960 1990 2000 150 Consumption by sector Total primary consumption Total end use consumption 1970 1980 1990 2000 Production and consumption under Reagan's National Energy Policy Plan (NEPP). Shaded area in consumption graph represents savings projected for conservation strategies; total end-use consumption does not include such losses as occur during production and processing. (IPE/Department of Energy) offshore and require fail-safe systems for blowout prevention on the ocean floor, as well as casing extending deeper into the sediment. In the last decade, oil-drilling technology advanced tremendously. But offshore blowouts are still a problem due to factors of human error - equipment failure and incompetent rig supervision. That latter factor is less critical today in the United States, since the government has become an "offshore watchdog" and industry recognizes the tremendous cost involved in oil spills. Unfortunately, in many foreign countries errors in rig operation and skimping on equipment continue to result in periodic blowouts. Why is the drilling industry moving offshore? Because that is where the oil is. Oil is frequently trapped in anticlinal structures, which are like giant inverted saucers in the subsurface. In many countries the big anticlines on land have been drilled, but not those offshore. In 1951, the Arabian-American Oil Company drilled into a giant anticline off the shore of Saudi Arabia and discovered the Safaniya Field. Safaniya is the largest known offshore oil accumulation in the world, with recoverable reserves exceeding 25 billion barrels. For 25 years after it was discovered, this single field had more oil in it than the offshore reserves of the United States and Canada combined. In the late 1950s, the Soviets discovered oil in an anticline in the center of the Caspian Sea. Soon, a series of wells were being constructed there, on trestles anchored in shallow water, on top of a subsurface mountain range. Mexican geologists have identified more than 200 undrilled structures in the Gulf of Campeche alone, which may contain oil. In 1981 , the Mexicans discovered 15 new oil fields, increasing their known offshore reserves to 34 billion barrels of oil and oil-equivalent gas. The Egyptians have discovered 2.5 billion barrels of oil in the Gulf of Suez by drilling fewer than 100 exploration wells into buried anticlines there. Offshore drilling in the late 1950s was confined to fewer than a dozen countries, but today active exploration is going on in the offshore areas of more than 60 countries. Nearly 40 of these presently produce oil and gas. Most recently, a major field was discovered in the Santa Barbara Channel off California. Enormous Potential Worldwide, the offshore potential for oil and gas is still enormous, since only a few percent of the prospective areas have been drilled. This is not due to a lack of deep-sea drilling equipment. Drilling engineers have invented a variety of drilling platforms, drill ships, subsea completion assemblies, service islands, and underwater storage tanks. Even building and servicing large underwater pipelines is routine. It you are looking for a special Christmas present for that rich uncle who has everything, for about $150 million you can buy a 500-foot, self-propelled, semisubmersible pipeline vessel that can install 20-inch pipelines in water 2,000 feet deep. The relatively slow pace of offshore drilling, compared to that onshore, is not due to slowness in development of the technology but rather to economic, political, and environmental factors. The wells drilled on piers offshore from Santa Barbara at the turn of the century cost about $600 each, at the producing depth of 210 feet. Today, that amount of money would not even pay for the drilling permits. Offshore drilling is no longer a business for entrepreneurs. The $5 million to $15 million cost of a typical offshore "wildcat" is too much for even a major oil company to risk. Consequently, most wells are drilled by a consortium of two or more major companies. The high exploration costs are only the beginning. If oil and gas are discovered, then the cost of a large permanent drilling platform suitable for drilling several slanted holes, plus a pipeline to carry the petroleum to shore, must be figured in. The result is that a 2,000-barrel-a-day well that would be a bonanza onshore can be uneconomic offshore. The objective of exploration is to drill as few wells as possible to estimate the total volume of recoverable oil. The estimate is then used to determine whether or not a pipeline is economically feasible. Proximity to a market is also considered. In many countries, huge volumes of the gas produced with oil are burned off continuously because there is no means of transporting the gas to a market. In some cases, What's Ahead for U.S. Energy Prices Under the National Energy Policy Program Estimated 1980 Midrange 1985 Range Midrange _ Projected- 1990 _ Range Midrange .'(Kill Range World oil price ($/bbl)t Resource prices Refined crude oil ($/bbl) Average wellhead gas price ($/Mcf) Average minemouth coal price ($/ton) Delivered prices Residential sector Distillates ($/gal) Liquid gases ($/gal) Natural gas ($/Mcf) Electricity (/kw-hr) Commercial sector Distillate ($/gal) Residual ($/bbl) Liquid gases ($/gal) Natural gas ($/Mcf) Electricity (#/kw-hr) Industrial sector Distillate ($/gal) Residual ($/bbl) Liquid gases ($/gal) Natural gas ($/Mcf) Coal ($/ton) Electricity (0/kw-hr) 37 30.65 1.64 27.59 1.07 0.63 4.30 5.89 0.96 29.67 0.62 3.51 6.02 0.95 29.67 0.62 2.90 41.03 4.06 44 44 5.84 31.76 1.42 0.85 7.54 6.07 1.30 47.32 0.84 7.60 6.35 1.28 45.77 0.84 7.10 42.90 4.47 37-50 37.40-50 4.80-6.10 30.70-34.90 1.20-1.60 0.60-1.10 6.60-8.80 5.70-6.30 1.10-1.50 37-58.10 0.60-1.10 6.50-8.50 6.10-6.50 1.10-1.15 35.20-57 0.60-1.10 6.10-8 30.90-56.70 4.20-4.70 52 52 6.69 33.42 1.64 0.98 8.97 6.79 1.51 55.49 0.97 8.65 7.13 1.48 53.64 0.97 8.15 46.34 5.19 41-66 41.68 5.50-8.50 32.90-38.20 1.30-2.20 0.70-1.40 7.40-11.10 6.20-7.40 1.20-2 40.30-78.10 0.70-1.40 7.10-10.80 6.70-7.60 1.20-2 38.40-76.50 0.70-1.40 6.70-10.20 33.50-63.50 4.60-5.70 70 70 8.38 38.45 2.14 1.27 10.70 7.78 1.98 73.82 1.28 10.39 8.26 1.93 71.24 1.28 9.91 52.72 6.14 50-95 50-95 6.70-9.80 34.80-45.30 1.50-2.90 0.80-2.00 8.70-12.40 6.90-8.50 1.40-2.70 48.70-108.30 0.80-2 8.40-12.10 7.70-8.70 1.40-2.70 46.30-106 0.80-2 8-11.60 35.40-73.20 5.30-6.90 *ln 1981 dollars, 1981 dollars assumed to equal 1.009 times 1980 dollars. tU.S. average refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil. Excludes taxes. Source: Department of Energy. Crude Oil Natural Gas New fields New reservoirs in oil fields Extensions to old reservoirs * Net revisions to estimates of old reserves ao 18 C 6 o -4l New fields New reservoirs in oil fields Extensions to old reservoirs Net revisions to estimates of old reserves 197B 1979 19BO 19-77 1978 1979 1980 Additions to U.S. oil and gas reserves. Revised estimates of reserves account for nearly twice the total of extensions and new discoveries. [From International Petroleum Encyclopedia, 1982, (IPE)] The Russians have been drilling the Caspian Sea's prolific fields for more than 80 years. Inset shows workers at port city of Baku. (Photo by author) the gas is reinjected into the oil field in order to maintain pressures to force the oil out. Some countries build petrochemical plants to convert the gas to industrial products. Politics has been the major impediment to increased offshore drilling. Some Third World countries try to do their own offshore drilling, but it usually goes forward at a snail's pace because of graft and incompetence among bureaucrats. The sharp rise of oil prices in the 1970s caused many of these countries to begin offshore leasing on favorable terms in order to attract experienced oil-finders. Politics also has caused considerable confusion about offshore boundaries, which are discussed in more detail in Hollis Hedberg's article on page 9. Environmental Concern The third factor that has slowed offshore drilling has been environmental concern for the world's oceans. There is no doubt that oil spills in coastal waters can do considerable damage to marine life. The open oceans, however, have been subject to oil "spills" via natural seeps and fractures in the earth's surface for millions of years (see the article by Robert Spies on page 24) . Fortunately, weathering processes break down this oil in a reasonable period of time. Several articles in this issue discuss the environmental implications of offshore drilling. In 1978, due to the Carter Administration's perception that we would not rely on oil in the future, only 4, 000 square miles of the outer continental shelf of the United States were leased for drilling. At that rate, it would take 450 years to explore the 1 .8 million square miles of prospective offshore areas of the United States. At the end of 1982, more than 40 percent of the offshore acreage of foreign countries was under lease or concession, whereas less than 5 percent of the U.S. offshore acreage was leased. These areas may hold the oil and gas for our energy needs in the next century. How much petroleum is out beyond the coastlines? At present, the world's known offshore reserves total more than 200 billion barrels of oil or gas equivalent, which is more than a fifth of the world's total hydrocarbon reserves. There is a significant difference, however, in that onshore reserves comprise literally thousands of small fields, whereas more than 80 percent of the offshore reserves are in giant fields, containing 500 million barrels of oil or gas equivalent per field. Undiscovered petroleum resources on the continents and continental shelves of the world are currently estimated to be around 3 trillion barrels. More than half of this is probably on the continental shelves, with additional unknown quantities under the continental slopes and rises. Despite the economic, political, and environmental problems, it is still cheaper to produce oil from giant offshore fields than from asphalt sands or oil shales. John M. Hunt is a Senior Scientist in the Chemistry Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. He is the author of Petroleum Geochemistry and Geology. 8 Deep-Water Petroleum Prospects of the Oceans and Seas by Hollis D. Hedberg Presently about 25 percent of the world's oil production and about 18 percent of its gas production come from offshore waters. However, practically no gas or oil yet comes from the very deep waters offshore, which constitute more than 80 percent of the world's total ocean and sea area. "Deep water" is, of course, a subjective term. Thirty years ago, 50 meters was considered deep water in which to drill. Now, thousands of wells have been drilled in waters 100 meters deep and far beyond. We even have active production platforms in waters more than 300 meters deep: Shell's Cognac platform in the Gulf of Mexico (312.5 meters), and many exploratory wells drilled in 500 to 1,000 meters of water. We now know that not only the continental shelves but the moderately deep water of the upper parts of the slopes of our oceans and seas are ricnly promising for oil production. In keeping with our growing familiarity with drill ing and producing ope rat ions at great depths, we should, perhaps, reserve the expression "very deep water" for depths of 1 ,000 meters or more. In such areas, we have produced no petroleum to date and have acquired only meager direct drilling information on the petroleum potential of this vast portion of the total marine realm. Although the words oceans and seas are often used interchangeably, for the purposes of this article, the former is defined as the Atlantic, the Pacific, the Indian, the Arctic, and the Antarctic, and Division of world oceans from author's conception. the latter as smaller enclosed or semi-enclosed bodies of water, numbering 40 or more, that are part of the continental margins. In considering various aspects of the petroleum prospects of the deep marine waters of the world, it is useful to distinguish between the major oceans and {he marginal seas. Records of Very-Deep-Water Drilling Most of the geological data on very-deep-water regions come from the nearly 600 sites drilled in water depths of more than 1 ,000 meters by the Clomar Challenger. During the invaluable Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) programs of the last 14 years, the Clomar Challenger has worked in almost all the oceans and seas of the world, doing geological, geophysical, and geochemical research. The deepest water in which the Challenger drilled was 7,044 meters in the Mariana Trench, and the deepest penetration beneath the ocean floor was 1 ,741 meters at a site in the eastern North Atlantic. While the DSDP program has been concerned primarily with the advancement of knowledge of the rocks below the oceans and seas, much of the information gathered stratigraphy, structure, regional geology of the sediments and, more specifically, source and reservoir character, organic carbon content, maturation status, and even direct occurrences of oil, gas, and methane hydrates has been pertinent to the petroleum development of the world's offshore areas. However, it must be recognized that the DSDP sites were not places selected to evaluate the prospects for commercial exploitation of petroleum in deep waters. Rather, the sites were selected to avoid encountering oil or gas because the Challenger was not equipped to handle the hazards posed by oil flows and gas blowouts. To date, only a few industry holes have been drilled in waters deeper than 1 ,000 meters with the specific objective of looking for commercially useful oil and gas. These holes are listed in Table 1 . Apparently, none of these industry holes can be considered potential producers. However, for initial holes in new drilling regions, such results cannot be considered discouraging; rarely do the first wells in any new region achieve production. Requisites for Petroleum Accumulations Several factors are frequently outlined as requisites for petroleum accumulations. Present depth of water is not in itself one of these controlling factors. Though many of the very-deep-water depositional envi ronments on the seat' loor may be unfavorable to formation of either source or reservoir petroleum deposits, it is important to remember that older underlying sediments in many of these same areas may have been deposited under quite different and more favorable conditions. The first requirement for petroleum accumulation is a rich source of organic matter, and conditions favorable for its preservation. It appears that the bulk of the petroleum used today was created by geothermal alteration of carbonaceous matter derived from the remains of plants and animals that were incorporated in sediments. Depending on the original nature of the organic matter, different gaseous or liquid petroleums may have formed. The time required for genesis varies for different organic constituents, and the original organic matter may be more or less consumed in the process. For source rock to be considered potentially effective as an oil producer, a minimum of 0.5 Table 1 . Petroleum industry holes drilled in water depths more than 1 ,000 meters. Year Country Company & Well Name Water Depth 10 percent of organic carbon by weight is commonly considered necessary. Less organic carbon may remain in rock that has gone beyond the maturation stage, and oil , once formed , may have become gas or been completely dissipated by "overcooking" (too much thermal alteration, such that the rock has become incipiently metamorphosed). Substantial accumulations of methane gas often may have had a near-surface bacterial origin, not related to either depth of burial or temperature. Moreover, petroleum found in a given area may have had its source beds in some other area and have since migrated to its present location; conversely, the source beds in a given area may have lost, via migration to another area, the petroleum they generated. A second requisite is a "blanket" of sediment overlying the source rock to create sufficiently high temperatures to convert organic matter to fluid petroleum. Most petroleum, other than biogenic methane, is generated thermochemically via the heat of the earth. The depth below the surface at which a petroleum source rock must be buried to attain sufficient temperature for rapid petroleum generation depends on both the geothermal gradient* of the area and the character of the organic matter. Length of time of exposure to generating temperatures is also a critical factor. The existence of favorable conditions for expulsion of petroleum from source rock and for migration to porous and permeable "reservoir" rocks is a third general requisite. How oil and gas escape from relatively impermeable shales or other organic-rich sediments, and in what form and manner they travel to reservoir rocks, is still one of the least understood processes of oil and gas accumulation. Does oil move from its place of genesis as completely formed oil, or as various individual hydrocarbon components (precursors of oil) in solution in waterorgas? Does some movement take place by diffusion or by other means, or by a combination of means at different stages? These questions still provoke controversy. Likewise, the energy source for its movement buoyancy, compaction pressure, internal pressure due to gas genesis, clay mineral changes, aquathermal pressuring, osmosis, molecular diffusion is controversial, and may well be various combinations of forces at different stages. The routes followed by fluids escaping from fine-grained source rock and migrating to more permeable channels (for example, sandstones, conglomerates, permeable carbonates, fracture zones) may be intergranular, along microfractures, or by some other way or combinations of ways. The direction of escape may be upward, downward, or lateral, depending on which affords the readiest relief of pressure. The ultimate commercial reservoirs may be sandstones, conglomerates, porous carbonates, fractured cherts, weathered unconformity zones, and the like. *The rate of increase of temperature in the Earth as a function of depth. FAULT TRAP ANTICLINAL TRAP Two types of structural traps. Top: Reservoir rock (third layer from top on left) is surrounded by impermeable rock, preventing further migration of the petroleum. Bottom: Petroleum migrated into the upper pan of the fold, or anticline, (fourth arch from bottom) and trapped beneath impermeable rock layer. (Provided by Petroleum Extension Service, University of Texas at Austin) A fourth general requirement for substantial petroleum accumulation is to have accumulation traps. These may be structural, stratigraphic, or both, and of infinite variety. Adequate sealing or cover rocks are necessary if the traps are to persist. Some traps are effectively sealed for oil and not for gas, and others for heavy oil only. Among the best seals or cover rocks are shales, evaporites, methane hydrate zones, and some fault zones. 11 TRUNCATION PINCH OUT SURROUNDED POROSITY CHANGE Four examples of stratigraphic traps. Top left: Inclined petroleum-bearing rock (bottom horizontal layer) is cut off by horizontal rock layer. Top right: Triangular formation (at bottom left) is pinched off gradually. Bottom left: Porous, permeable reservoir bed (center) surrounded by impermeable rock. Bottom right: Change in porosity and permeability of reservoir (large center section) leaves upper portion of reservoir (slightly shaded) impermeable. (Provided by Petroleum Extension Service, University of Texas at Austin) A common fallacy confuses the sediment thickness needed for maturation of source rock with the much lesser thickness needed to provide sealed reservoirs to trap migrating petroleum. Many of the world's great production sites, now largely depleted, were at relatively shallow depths, where oil had migrated from deeper source rocks. Even the great Burgan field of Kuwait, because of petroleum migration, produces oil from only 900 to 1,200 meters below the surface at reservoir temperatures no higher than those of a fine summer day in Kuwait! Finally, proper timing or sequencing of the essentials just enumerated is necessary for petroleum accumulations to occur. The best of traps, if formed after petroleum genesis and migration out of an area, will be barren. Traps exposed to post-accumulation erosion may now be empty. Rich potential source rock in which the organic matter has 12 not yet matured into oil are of no use to us today, and source/ reservoir couples that once were good but have been "overcooked" will now, at most, yield only gas, and may yield nothing at all. Petroleum Potential of Very- Deep- Water Regions Thegreaf central ocean region, constituting 77 percent of the world's total marine area, is almost entirely covered by very deep water. The continental margins, which lie between the central ocean region and the continental shelves, rapidly reach depths oceanward of greater than 1,000 meters. Some of the greatest water depths known in the oceans are found in the marginal trenches. The semi-enclosed seas of the continental margins are of quite variable maximum water depth, some never reaching more than 1 ,000 meters, others attaining more than 4,000 meters in their central abyssal parts. The prospects for finding petroleum accumulations in the very deep waters of these three types of regions are as follows: Great central ocean region. Geological prospects of petroleum accumulations in the sediments of the very deep waters of the central ocean region are generally unfavorable because of thinness of sediments, low organic carbon content, scarcity of reservoir beds, and the nearly horizontal attitude of most strata (impeding lateral migration and accumulation). Sediment thicknesses are generally less than 500 meters and reservoir sands are generally absent, or thin and of poor quality. Of 334 DSDP sites drilled in this region only two showed any direct indications of petroleum and these, methane gas only. However, the central ocean region does have some interesting local deep-water prospects, mostly near the margins, including methane hydrate accumulations and widespread Cretaceous period (about 100 million years ago) black shale horizons. Continental margin region. This region has a diversity of features of interest to petroleum prospectors: marginal geosynclines, outer margin aprons, marginal plateau blocks, marginal trench fillings, continent-related deep-water fans, transmarginal ridges, unconformities, overlaps, and pinchouts.* There is no reason to suppose that favorable effects of such features on petroleum accumulation should cease just because the overlying water column has deepened. The continental margin region favors petroleum accumulation by virtue of thickness of sediments, presence of source rocks, reservoirs, and sealing rocks, a good probability of traps, and a generally eventful history of structure and sedimentation. Fifty-two of the 140 continental margin sites drilled to date as part of the DSDP have yielded evidence of hydrocarbons, even though the locations were chosen to avoid petroleum traps. Semi-enclosed seas of the continental margin. The restricted seas of the continental margin, of which about 40 have been recognized, are among the best prospective areas in the world for petroleum. Proximity to land and large rivers has provided them with thick layers of sediment with relatively rich accumulations of both terrestrial and marine organic matter, even in their central parts. Their restricted nature favors limited circulation and preservation of organic matter, as the result of reducing conditions on the bottom, or because of rapid burial by sediments. Favorable reservoirs are to be expected in sediments of deltaic, turbidity-current, or reef origin. They are generally situated in tectonically mobile environments, where fold and fault structures and repeated unconformities are common. The restricted character of marginal seas also has favored the formation of sealing evaporites, and many are already known to be characterized by diapiric structures.* The borders and shelves of many of these semi-enclosed seas are already the sites of abundant petroleum production (such as the Gulf of Mexico, Persian Gulf, Caribbean Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, and the North Sea). The very-deep-water central portions of these same basins also may hold abundant petroleum accumulations. A recent study of the * A domal or anticlinal structure in which the overlying rocks have been ruptured and the core has been squeezed out; common in evaporites, shales, and other plastic rocks. .-fiD?ft *<5#S s/rrrr^ The wedging out of a stratum; commonly used in connection with the wedging out updip of a sand layer into a shale to form a stratigraphic trap for petroleum accumulation. Directional drilling is often used to produce several wells from a single offshore platform without moving the equipment. (Provided by Petroleum Extension Service, University of Texas at Austin) 13 central part of the Gulf of Mexico by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that there are 22 billion barrels of oil in place in some 152,000 square kilometers of the central Gulf. More than 75 percent of this area lies under water depths exceeding 3,000 meters. Of 101 DSDP sites in semi-enclosed marginal seas for which organic carbon determinations are available, 58 had organic carbon concentrations, at least locally, of more than 0.5 percent and 29 had indications of oil, gas, or methane hydrates. Drilling in Very Deep Water Though we stress that present depth of water at a site is in no way an indicator of the prospects of petroleum accumulation there, the influence of water depth is quite another story when it comes to actually finding petroleum and producing it. Only a few years ago, the prospect of drilling wells and producing petroleum in water thousands of meters deep seemed only an idle dream. Today, as noted earlier, we not only have actively producing platforms in as much as 312 meters of water, but have drilled nearly 30 exploratory wells for oil at more than 1,000 meters water depth. A glance at the trade magazines these days shows the oceans filled with an amazing and bizarre assortment of huge, strange creations drillships, barges, jackups, submersibles, and semi-submersibles for offshore drilling. Of these, many are designed for drilling in deep or very deep water. The drilling industry has steadily and rapidly increased the water-depth range of its capabilities and equipment. As to what the limits are, the attitude seems to be, "If there's enough oil there, we'll find a way to get it." The costs will be enormous indeed, because of the problems of deep water, the remoteness from land bases of some of the more promising very-deep-water sites, and the hazards of weather, currents, and ice that must be faced. As an example of costs, it is estimated that the two-well program of Total-Elf-Esso at depths of 1 ,200 meters in the Gulf of Lyon in the Mediterranean Sea will require an expenditure of about $100 million. Shell and partners will likely spend between $30 million and $50 million to drill a well in 2,073 meters off the Atlantic coast of the United States, 120 miles southeast of Atlantic City. Obviously, with costs and problems such as those envisaged, no one will drill in very deep water for minor accumulation targets. Only prospects of major, prolifically productive fields will justify the needed investments. Butthere is no reason to doubt that such prospects exist. Problems With the Law of the Sea Serious obstacles to exploration and development of petroleum prospects in the very deep waters of the world's oceans and seas may emerge unless the Law of the Sea (LOS) Convention is drastically modified. Several of its provisions such as the creation of boundaries between coastal states and international jurisdiction over mineral resources appear ill-advised. The Law of the Sea Treaty, as presently proposed, fails to provide a sound and definite basis for drawing the limit between coastal-state and international jurisdiction over mineral resources along the outer edge of the continental margin where it extends more than 200 nautical miles from shore. In effect, this uncertainty means that The Sedco 445, among the most experienced deep-water drillships in the world. (Courtesy of Sedco) 14 exploration will be deterred over large areas of the continental margin. There are two formulas for determining boundaries allowed by the Law: the first is based on the impracticable measure of the thickness of sediments as a function of distance from the foot of the slope; the second involves the difficulty of drawing directly a precise base-of-slope boundary, with no provision for a guiding, internationally approved boundary zone within which each coastal state could establish its own precise boundary. No oil company is going to risk the huge amount of money required for a well in these very deep waters without clear demarkation of a national boundary. Hence, the region affected by the dubious boundary which may be many thousands of square miles in area and commercially significant - becomes valuable to no one. A reasonable boundary formula, outlined long ago, would give coastal states jurisdiction over mineral resources out to the approximate toot of the continental (or insular) slope, plus an oceanward- adjacent boundary zone of a uniform width (to allow for uncertainties in fixing the exact position of the foot of the slope), within which each state would establish a precise boundary. This coastal-state jurisdictional area would exist in addition to the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) proposed in the Law, which grants coastal states jurisdiction over both living and mineral resources out to a distance of 200 nautical miles beyond the base line from which the territorial sea is measured. President Reagan declared a 200-mile EEZ for the United States on March 10 of this year, after having decided last year that the United States would not become a party to the LOS treaty. The Law of the Sea Convention fails to live up to its implicit promise to give to coastal nations jurisdiction over the mineral resources of the entire continental margin. Instead, it assigns to an International Authority the central parts of some of the potentially richest petroleum areas of the continental margin thecentral partsof someof the semi-enclosed marginal seas, such as the Gulf of Mexico, the Barents Sea, and the Bering Sea. A more equitable arrangement would be to divide jurisdiction over mineral resources in semi-enclosed seas, which are properly part of the continental margins, among bordering countries. Each bordering state should control the shelf and slope adjacent to its shore; the entire central area beyond the base of the slope would be divided equitably among them. The treatment of islands in the Law of the Sea Convention is also defective. Shelf/slope islands are properly assigned jurisdiction out to the base of the continental slope on which their mother country stands; improperly the Convention also gives them the double benefit of claiming such additional areas as lie within 200 nautical miles of their shores, whether or not this extends their territory beyond the base of the slope. Island dependencies situated on the continental shelves or slopes of semi-enclosed seas within the continental margin should not control territory beyond the foot of the shelf/slope platform on which they stand. The mother countries Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Ocean Industry Program 1930 Resources in Marine Research The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution offers an Industrial Liaison Program to companies concerned with Geosciences, Ocean Dynamics and Engineering, Policy and Environmental Studies. Services include: prepublication results <>1 current research, meetings, conferences, video tapes, opportunities for individual consulting, proposal review, dial-up databases, maps, papers. use of conference facilities. Membership Is Available To Large and Small Companies Current research includes: GEOSCIENCES micropaleontological biostratigraphy, deep water benthic foraminifera, paleoecology and paleoceanic circulation, tectonics of Earth and planetary bodies, gravity and geoid anomalies, magnetic anomalies, igneous petrology, volcanic processes, marine seismology, underwater acoustics, heat flow in ocean basins, hydrothermal circulation, benthic transition layers, transport, deposition and diagenesis of sediments, applied marine geology, borehole seismics, etc. OCEAN DYNAMICS & ENGINEERING coastal engineering, measurements systems, moorings and structures, information processing, ocean search and reconnaissance, deep submergence engineering, acoustic signal processing, Arctic acoustics and operations, microcomputer data acquisition, ocean optics, ocean mixing processes, towed camera systems, air-sea interactions, shelf sediment processes, waves and currents, beach erosion, etc. POLICY & ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES marine minerals management, Arctic/Antarctic issues, fisheries management, impact of the Law of the Sea Treat) tor the U.S., coastal zone management and marine pollution research, cooperative international marine affairs program, state-federal jurisdictional issues in expanded territorial seas, environmental contaminants, marine toxins, bacterial chemosynthesis for aquaculture, chemical pathways, etc. Put our knowledge i i i i Or world-Wide research toworkforyou! I "i >n!< >i in.iln Hi pli MM- i all or u rite: " u.. skins < :<">r500 200- 100- 50- 25- 10- Other 500 200 100 50 25 FIELD SIZE IN MILLION BARRELS OF OIL Figure 7. Distribution of crude oil by field size. (From Nehring, 1981) 41 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 cc UJ Q. I UJ cc cc CO LL O z o _1 J CD 2.0 1.8 1.6 14 1.2 1X3 .8 .6 .4 .2 OIL DISCOVERY BY FIELD SIZE FIELDS OF. -100 MILLION BARRELS OR MORE 10-100 MILLION BARRELS LESS THAN 3.5 Figure 2. Discovery history of oil according to field size. (From Menard, 1976) 3.0 UJ CC 25 CD Z O 1.5 1 1.0 tf> Z O li .5 _i m ALL FIELDS 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 YEAR Figure 3. U.S. historical oil-production showing giant-field dependence. (From Steinhart and McKellar, 1982) account for 20 percent of world oil production, and 481 of the 22,000 known fields contain more than 80 percent of known reserves. A. A. Meyerhoff of Tulsa, Oklahoma, discussed the implications of this large-field dependence in "Economic Impact and Geopolitical Implications of Giant Petroleum Fields" published in American Scientist. Estimation of undiscovered oil depends heavily on the degree to which the content or the existence of giant fields can be predicted. Most of the oil in frontier areas is in these very large fields, and if our predictions about those are nearly right, it is a simple matter of increasing the totals somewhat to allow for the numerous small fields that may be found later. It is on this point that some participants disagree. There are industry people and public officials that reject estimation; many others have faith that the large fields will be found. Hubbertonce asked a geologist responsible for some of the largest estimates of future oil discoveries why his estimates were so large. The geologist said that the oil has to be there because we need it. Other believers represent versions of the old-time wildcatter: a person who does not believe will not be long in the wildcat drilling business. Although defensible as a personal conviction, this faith in the unlikely has infected some business and government leaders, including the Secretary of the Interior and the Assistant Secretary for Minerals and Resources. Faith and hope notwithstanding, estimates of undiscovered oil resources are developed in two general ways: historical-trend analysis and geological analogy. Historical Trend Analysis The best known practitioner of historical-trend analysis is Hubbert. In 1956, he accurately predicted the peak of U.S. oil production in 1970 and its subsequent decline. Despite in tensive analysis since, Hubbert's projection is the only example of an accurate prediction made well in advance with a defined, repeatable technique. Most historical analysis begins with the simple observation that production of a finite resource starts at zero, grows for a time, peaks in a mature phase, and ultimately declines. The problem then becomes how to fit a curve to that history, and identifying constraints on future production and discovery. Obviously, such a technique works best with a resource for which the art of exploration is well advanced. There is no argument about production in the past. The constraints are known: (1) the total produced must equal the production plus reserves, and their extensions (enlargements on known reserves) plus undiscovered producible amounts, and (2) the last phase of production must be continuously declining as it approaches depletion. This second constraint means that we know the shape of the "tail" of the curve. However, the onset Table 1 . The five largest oil fields in the United States. 42 of this phase is signaled only when reserves and their extensions are much more prominent as remaining resources than as new discoveries. This phase should be expected when about 10 to 20 percent of total, ultimately producible amount of oil remains. Hubbert used the logistic-growth curve* for his projections, which occur widely in systems with growth limits. C. L. Moore also used a Gompertz curve* with an additional parameter for his estimates. J. J. Wiorkowski dealt with the curve-fitting problem by relying on a generalized family (the Richards function*) of curves, which includes both the logistic-growth and Gompertz curves as special cases. Although formal goodness-of-fit statistics may be determined for the curve fitting, they reveal little about the accuracy of the derived oil estimates. Nevertheless, U.S. oil-discovery and production data fit the same logistic-growth curve quite well thus far (Figure 4). There is no implied, inevitable history destined by such a fit. Some depletion histories for U.S. resources fit logistic curves (anthracite coal, for example), and some do not (bituminous coal and mercury, for example). H. W. Menard's work with random exploration drilling models makes use of historical-discovery data in a different way. The computer could generate many "might-have-been" histories of random-drilling searches and determine how rapidly the presently known oil fields would have been discovered. Knowing that oil is concentrated in the largest fields helps, because large fields are the most likely to be found by a randomly located drill hole. But one could also suppose, along with J. D. Moody and others, that there remain undiscovered, on the land of the lower 48 states, 50 more giant oil fields. Since these fields must be in the localities examined during the history of oil exploration, a random-drilling program would have found almost all of them by now. There are a few who believe this. At heart, oil-company executives do not: it would be an easy matter for a few large companies to end all costly exploration on the Iower48, fire their expensive staffs, and mount a random-drilling program that would pay off with all the certainty of the house take at Las Vegas tables. The more obvious explanation is that these giant fields do not exist in well-explored areas. It is possible, after work with random-drilling models, to believe that a large number of undiscovered giant fields exist only if one also believes that the scientific search for oil by geologists and geophysicists consistently results in decisions to drill in the wrong places. A model proposed by L. J. Drew, J. H. Schuenmeyer, and D. H. Root in 1980 describes the discovery process in partially explored basins, and can be used to predict the size distribution of future discoveries in a given basin. No geological assumption need be made, since the parameters of the model are obtained directly from the historical drilling record. Projections of ultimate yield are made *These statistical formulas are growth curves, which represent activity as it increases over time. 1880 1900 1920 1940 1860 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 ALASKA PROVED RESERVES 27 8 BILLION BARRELS TO BE DISCOVERED 43 2 BILLION BARRELS CD Figure 4. Annual U.S. oil production with logistic-depletion model fitted. Curve was fitted to production data for 1930 through 1979. (From Steinhart, 1979) possible by the progressive exhaustion of possibilities as a result of continued exploratory and developmental drilling. Clearly, the large targets - which contain most of the oil are first identified by the drilling. The authors point out that the area-exhausted model has been used in the Denver basin with much success. Using only pre-1956 discovery and drilling data, the model correctly predicted the size distribution from 1956 to 1974. These historical-trend analyses were tested on the Los Angeles Basin, using historical data terminating in 1920 and at the end of each succeeding decade. All converged with the present estimates; the random-drilling model, which was not really devised for this purpose, was less stable, and the Gompertz curve used byC. L. Moo re con verged very slowly for purely mathematical reasons. The area-exhausted model, devised for basins, was exceptionally stable and converged early. The success of these projections is all the more surprising because neither the production or exploration histories of the Los Angeles Basin especially resemble the generalized curves they fit. There are other variations and combinations of historical-trend analysis. Figure4 illustrates results tor aggregate U.S. oil production. Several facts are apparent. First, by separating Alaska (mainly Prudhoe Bay) from the trend, it is clear that only the enlargement of the area under consideration and production from the largest U.S. field ever found have slowed the decline in production. Second, the most vigorous criticism of these analyses that they take no account of price impacts is not cause for rejection of the results. The Great Depression , when oil prices dropped to 50 cents a barrel, shows clearly enough in the production history, but is not very important in the overall production circle, however cataclysmic it may have been to the industry. Too little attention has been devoted to the advantages offered by historical analyses of this type. The ability to repeat the analysis with different fitting procedures allows for checks not possible with judgmental geological estimates. Comparison of Figure 4 with other such estimates suggests that 43 Offshore rig near Santa Barbara, California. (Photo by Joe Munroe/PR) variations of 20 percent can arise from choice of fitting procedures. Implicitly, these methods contain the collective geological judgments of the past which, in turn, rest on more disaggregated data than any single geological estimate. In addition, only historical-trend analyses compensate for future technological change. Embedded in the data is the history of technological advance in the oil industry. Implicit in the projections is a continuation of this advance. Even the historical expansion of available areas is so embedded. It took a super giant like Prudhoe Bay to show as a dramatic aberration. Geological Analogy Geological analogy has a very simple underlying concept. If a virgin area, A, has a similar geology to an already quite developed area, B, then the petroleum potential of area A is similar to that of area B, which has already been determined. The problem is that many areas with quite similar geologies have quite different resource potential. Estimation of petroleum potential through geological analogy has become more sophisticated than simply looking for accumulations of sediments with structures that might contain oil. Analogies based solely on sediment volume or areal extent of sedimentary rock accumulations have been made in the past and often have resulted in absurdly large estimates of oil potential. Such estimates can prove to be spectacularly wrong. For example, the eastern Gulf of Mexico off Florida, thought by some to have enormous oil potential, has yielded very little oil, despite large thicknesses of sediments and some large structures like the Deslin Dome. Clearly something was missing. In order for commercial quantities of oil to be present, a series of conditions must have been met, in aparticulartime sequence. First, sufticientorganic material must have been present and incorporated into the sediments as they were deposited. This organic material must not be oxidized (as would happen, for example, to decaying plant remains on the forest floor). Second, the organic-rich sediments must be buried deeply enough and long enough for petroleum to be produced in the source rock. Such source rocks are said to be thermally mature. Third, the oil must be forced out of the source rocks and migrate into reservoir rocks with sufficient pore space (porosity) to store the oil and enough interconnectedness among the pore spaces (permeability) to make future extraction possible. Fourth, these reservoir rocks must be contained by superposed impermeable rocks in a spatial geometry that traps the oil in the reservoir. Finally, these oil traps must not be breached by later structural deformation or erosion. Natural oil seeps, which led to the discovery of many early fields, show that this breaching does occur. Each of these necessary conditions present somewhat different problems and, unless substantial geological data is available for the area to be evaluated, judgment and imagination play a considerable role. Even if all the necessary conditions are met, oil will not be found unless the conditions have occurred in proper sequence and with adequate time duration. The time factor cannot be specified very exactly and is difficult to evaluate. The North Slope of Alaska, the North Sea, and the offshore of Mexico's East Coast yield to these methods, but the same methods failed in the Outer Banks of the offshore regions of California, the Baltimore Canyon, central Iraq, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Despite these objections, much of the effort to estimate the presence and size of undiscovered oil reserves has been devoted to geological-analogy methods. Some estimates of this sort must be correct since nearly every possible outcome has been predicted by someone. Because the estimates depend on basic geological judgments, the estimates stand as conclusions; they cannot be checked, they can only be accepted or rejected. Sadly, it appears that public officials seem to choose those estimates that suit their own wishes and programs. The difficulty can be illustrated by contrasting two lengthy and ambitious recent estimates. G. L Dolton and others provided the latest in a long series of estimates of ultimately producible oil emanating from the USGS. Although this USGS estimate is not so wildly optimistic as those of a decade ago, it is still among the largest of recent efforts. Specifically, Dolton and his colleagues conclude that there is a 95 percent probability that more than 64 billion barrels of undiscovered recoverable oil remain. An even more ambitious, basin-by-basin study done by the Rand Corporation in 1981 concludes that there is a 90 percent probability that less than 32 billion barrels of producible oil remain to be discovered. Not only do the estimates not overlap but, if the limits met formal 44 statistical requirements, the two results could not happen. Closer inspection of the reports shows that the probabilities also are subjective estimates and thus carry no more information about actual limits than the (subjective) average values. Comparison of the disaggregated estimates between Rand and the USCS shows that the major disagreements arise not from extensions to proven fields or, as might be expected, in the relatively unexplored areas in the offshore frontier, but in the onshore areas of the lower 48 states. The USGS concludes that 48 billion barrels are likely to be discovered in these well-explored areas. The Rand study estimates less than 5 billion barrels, which is typical of many estimates. One cannot help but wonder it the desire to lease controversial areas stimulated these improbably large estimates. The least known areas that remain are the continental slopes. There has been extensive production offshore until the 1950s in water depths up to 200 meters. This is the continental shelf, geologically similar to the continent, but underwater. The water depths on the slopes range from 200 to more than 2,000 meters. Little exploration data and only a tew holes exist to limit the imagination in this area. Different sedimentary processes operate here and sediment materials also differ. Opinions vary wildly among analysts, a majority holding that the slopes will yield little or no commercial oil, and a significant minority that is quite optimistic. Even so, the most optimistic experts assembled by the USCS estimate an upper limit or a 6-year supply roughly equal to the Prudhoe Bay field. It comes down to this: the only well-defined and repeatable (and occasionally successful) methods project a rather bleak future for U.S. oil discovery. They cannot encompass areas with no exploration; thus, optimists and pessimists can make their own guesses. But some restraint is in order. It was very unusual to find even one field as large as Prudhoe Bay in U.S. territory, given the distribution of world oil. The possibility that another will be found is very unlikely, indeed. The offshore frontiers in Alaska (especially the Beaufort Sea) and some California offshore areas represent the most significant possibilities. Lease bonus bids may represent the collective opinion of the oil industry at present. Merger and acquisition data show that proven reserves of oil sell for about $5 to $10 a barrel. Bids of $2 billion for Beaufort Sea leases suggest the industry is expecting to find oil in amounts of a tew hundred million to a few billion barrels there. Other frontier bids for much smaller amounts, or the lack of bids, suggest much less optimism about the existence of large amounts of undiscovered oil. John Steinhart is Professor of Geology and Geophysics at the University of Wisconsin, and Acting Chairman of the Energy Analysis and Policy graduate-degree program. A White House staff member during the Johnson and Nixon administrations, he is co-author with C. E. Steinhart of Energy: Sources, Uses, and Roles in Human Affairs (Duxbury/Wadsworth, 1974). Mark Bultman is a doctoral candidate in Geology and Geophysics. He holds an M.S. in Energy Analysis and Policy. O.R.E. State of the Art Oceanographic Instrumentation Geophysical Sub Bottom/Boomer Profilers Side Scan Sonar Streamer Relocators Engineering Pipeline Survey Systems Vehicle Tracking AcOUStiC Acoustic Navigation and Releases Transponders and Beacons Research Glass and Steel Buoys and Housings Bottom Finding Pingers ML/ Ferrantl O. R. E., Inc. P.O. Box 709, Falmouth, MA 02541 USA (617) 548-5800 Telex 940-859 O.R.E. Houston Phone 713-491-3153 Telex 775-579 Readings and References Bultman, M. W. 1983. Investigation of Methods of Petroleum Resource Appraisal Using Hindsight Analysis of the Los Angeles Basin. Unpublished M.S. thesis, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Drew, L. )., Schuenmeyer, J. H.,and Root, D. H. 1980. Petroleum Resources Appraisal and Discovery Rate Forecasting in Partially Explored Regions. U.S. Geological Survey #1138. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Hubbert, M. King. 1969. Energy Resources. Resources and Man. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman and Company. . 1974. U.S. Energy Resources: A Review as of 1972. A National Fuels and Energy Policy Study. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Menard, H. W. and G. Sharman. 1975. Scientific Uses of Random Drilling Models. Science 190: 337. Meyerhoff, A. A. 1976. Economic Impact and Geopolitical Implications on Giant Petroleum Fields./\mer/can Scientist, vol. 64, no. 5, pp. 536-541. Moody, J. D., Mooney, ). W., and Spivak, ). 1970. Giant Oil Fields of North America, from Halbouty, M., ed. Geology of Giant Petroleum Fields. Tulsa, Oklahoma: American Association ot Petroleum Geologists, pp. 8-27. Moore, C. L. 1971 . Analysis and Projection of Historic Patterns of U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas. Future Petroleum Provinces U.S. - Their Geology and Potential. Tulsa, Oklahoma: American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Nehring, Richard. 1981. The Discovery of Significant Oil and Gas Fields in the United States. U.S. Geological Survey/Department of Energy. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Geological Survey. 1982. Estimates of Undiscovered Recoverable Conventional Resources of Oil and Gas in the United States. Circular 860. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Wiorkowski, ). ). 1981. Estimating Volumes of Remaining Fossil Fuel Resources. Journal of American Statistical Association, vol. 76, no. 375, p. 534. 45 Land rig installed on man-made island in Alaska. (Provided by Petroleum Extension Service, University of Texas at Austin) Domestic Options tc by Don E. Kash I he issue of offshore oil and gas production was propelled onto the public agenda by two events in the late 1960s and early 1970s. An oil-covered bird in its death throes, pictured on the cover of Life magazine at the time of the Santa Barbara oil spill in 1969, heralded the beginning of broad public consciousness that offshore oil development holds environmental risks. Long lines at gasoline stations following the Arab oil embargo of 1973 symbolized the need for more domestically produced oil. Looking back over the last decade, it is difficult not to view the struggle over offshore oil development as a microcosm of a much broader set of concerns involving the "energy crisis" on the one hand and the raised environmental consciousness of Americans on the other. This is because industry and government experts believed that offshore areas held the greatest potential for large new reserves of oil, while environmentalists saw coastal ecosystems as fragile and petroleum-resource development as a direct threat to those ecosystems. Moreover, since most of the offshore oil was federally owned, it was an energy resource uniquely susceptible to pressure from a broad range of political interests. A decade after the oil embargo, Secretary of the Interior James Watt's leasing program, which offers the industry one billion offshore acres from which to select tracts, has reinvigorated the energy-versus-environment struggle. The pattern of continuing controversy over offshore oil and gas has given impetus to the search for domestic energy alternatives. All Sources Needed The either/or character of the debate about energy under the oceans is unfortunate. In truth, the nation needs to pursue both offshore oil and other domestic liquid-fuel sources if it is not to become increasingly dependent on imports. Offshore areas are an attractive potential source of petroleum. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that roughly a third of the undiscovered recoverable oil and gas resources in the United States is located under coastal waters. And it is widely believed that those waters hold the most likely prospect of giant oil fields fields with sufficient productive capacity to make a difference in the nation's future oil-supply situation. In fact, in the case of the deep-water and Arctic environments, only very large, highly productive oil fields will be able to justify initial development costs. To appreciate the issues that surround offshore energy development, a distinction must be 46 "Beautified" artificial island for oil and gas operations located in Long Beach Harbor, California. (Photo by Steve Proehl/PR) Offshore Oil and Gas made between the nation's situation with regard to oil and that regarding natural gas. At present, the nation's gas supply situation is one of surplus, and many estimators believe this surplus may continue for some years. Conversely, there is serious and pervasive uncertainty about the future of domestic oil supplies. Most estimates suggestthe United States will remain heavily dependent on oil imports for the foreseeable future unless substantial new domestic supplies are developed. Projections of continued heavy import dependence result from the expectation that domestic petroleum production will steadily decline, even with substantial discoveries offshore. The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment estimates that, with conservation and fuel switching (by electric power plants, for example), we may, by 1990, be able to cut our oil consumption by as much as 1 .8 million barrels a day. These savings, plus possible savings of 0.6 million to 1.3 million barrels of oil per day from improved efficiency in the transportation sector, are based on real optimism. Unfortunately, such oil savings roughly parallel estimates of the decline in domestic petroleum production. Simply stated, if one takes both optimistic projections of oil conservation and optimistic projections of new discoveries of oil, including substantial discoveries off U.S. coasts, import dependence remains constant. The fundamental and seemingly intractable problem for the United States is its inability to switch to nonliquid fuels for transportation. Transportation uses 60 percent of the nation's oil, but no alternatives exist. Similarly, the estimated one-quarter of our oil used in the manufacture of products a highly valued use is unlikely to shrink. In 1982, as a result of major conservation achievements and a serious economic recession, U.S. consumption of oil declined from a peak of 19 million to 15.3 million barrels a day. Domestically produced petroleum supplied 10.2 million barrels a day, and imports or existing stocks supplied the other 5.1 million barrels a day. The nation was roughly one million barrels a day less dependent on imports in 1982 than it was at the time of the embargo. The Office of Technology Assessment expects domestic production to drop from 10.2 million barrels a day to 7 million barrels a day by the year 2000. That projection assumes continued development of offshore oil fields. If the nation's production picture is to be turned around, it will require the discovery of more Prudhoe Bays. Without the large oil fields beneath Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, domestic production in 1982 would have been only 8.7 million barrels a day instead of 10.2 million. The easiest way to characterize the nation's domestic oil-production 47 Estimated Undiscovered Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves Source: International Petroleum Encyclopedia, 1982 Undiscovered resources as estimated in 1 980 by USGS for conventionally producible oil and gas. Low and High totals based on 95% and 5% probabilities, respectively, of discovering more than listed. *Figures do not add due to rounding. Resources recoverable only with technology for exploitation of Arctic ice-pack regions. (IPE/USGS) 48 situation is to note that, at a production level of 10.2 million barrels a day, the nation uses 3.7 billion barrels of domestically produced oil each year. Just to sustain production at that level, then, the United States has to discover the equivalent of a new Prudhoe Bay oil field every three years. Even with substantial success offshore, few observers expect that kind of discovery rate. The Alternatives Outlook Two potentially large sources of liquid fuel stand out as other possible options. One is liquid synfuel from coal and oil shale. The other is liquid produced from natural gas. Coal and oil shale synthetic- liquid technologies have been tested on a small scale, but there is basic disagreement among experts concerning when liquid fuels from these technologies can be made available and what they will cost. The uncertainty surrounding synthetic-liquid technologies flows from our inability to predict the problems that will be associated with scaling synthetic-fuel production plants up to commercial size. No science of scaling up exists. The only way to determine how effectively such plants will work, what their costs will be and, of equal importance, what their environmental impacts will be, is to build and test them on a commercial scale. Commercial synthetic-liquids plants are very expensive. Estimated capital cost per plant is somewhere between $3 billion and $5 billion. Constructing such a plant requires a long lead time and large-scale technical, economic, and managerial capabilities. With long lead times and high costs, even the largest energy corporations have found it difficult to justify the risks witness the shutdown of the Exxon Corporation's Colony Oil Shale Project in Colorado. Corporate managers must be influenced by not only the great technical, economic, and environmental uncertainties associated with such plants, but also by the unpredictability of the future world price of oil. Because capital investment is so large, poor performance in any part of a plant, including emissions and environmental controls, could make it a financial disaster. Should a synfuels plant operate at only 50 percent of its design capacity, the cost of the output liquids could be 60 to 70 percent higher than estimated. Unanticipated environmental problems could be equally costly, and the environmental impacts of C Hydrogen "N. Genera tiotT_^-^ Shale Oil) Retort Whole Shale Oil Hydrotreater Shale oil upgrading/refining options. Boxed area denotes processing that cannot be accomplished onsite. (IPE) FUEL PRODUCTS TO MARKET Demonstration Units including Hydrotreaters for various fractions 1 Crude Fractionator Whole Shale Oil Hydrotreater Hydrogen REFINERY SITE Comparison of Properties: Shale Oil and Conventional Petroleum *Nitrogen contents for petroleum crudes based on 525 F. to 1,000 F. cuts. Source: International Petroleum Encyclopedia, 1982. 49 Industrial heat and power 1365 1970 1975 13BO 19B5 199O synthetic-fuel plants will be significant. For example, a 50,000-barrel-a-day oil shale plant will consume roughly 25 million tons of shale per year. That is, each plant will require a mine roughly equal in size to the largest surface coal mine in the United States. Producing one million barrels a day of liquid petroleum from shale, or 1/15 of the amount of oil consumed in the United States in 1982, will require 20 huge mines. The risks associated with commercializing synthetic fuels from coal parallel those associated with oil shale. The second potentially large-scale option involves converting natural gas to liquid fuel for transportation. The economic and environmental risks associated with this option are much smaller than tor synthetic fuels. In the case of liquids from natural gas, however, uncertainties exist concerning whether there will be sufficient quantities of natural gas to supply its traditional markets and also supply the feedstock for liquid-fuel production. Although some observers believe there are huge, economically viable, new quantities of gas to be had from unconventional and very deep sources, there is no consensus on this point. Clearly, the most unconventional (some would say "far out") theory is that which argues the abiogenic origins of gas. This theory holds that at the time the earth was formed, huge quantities of primordial gas were captured. Those making this argument suggest that much of the natural gas we use is from outgassing.* Were this theory to be proven, the gas potential of the United States might be huge, but for most petroleum geologists, this theory smacks of Alice in Wonderland. More conventional estimators of huge gas resources argue that large quantities exist deep in the earth's crust below 15,000 feet. Discoveries of gas in such areas as the Deep Anadarko Basin of western Oklahoma have provided support for this theory, but there is nothing resembling agreement on the quantities existing at these depths. *Gas escaping from deep in the earth. **Geologic formations characterized by low permeability that impede the movement of naturally occurring gas to wells. U.S. energy conservation. During 1970s, conservation became a major energy source. Consumption dropped dramatically, while CNP grew, proving that conservation need not reduce economic growth. Dotted lines represent projections for future trends. (IPE/Shell Oil) Finally, there are estimates of huge quantities of gas to be had from such sources as the tight sands** running along the Rocky Mountains. In this case, the experts' disagreement is not so much over the quantities of gas contained in these sands as over our ability to develop technologies that will allow it to be economically produced. Gas-resource estimates are thus shot through with controversy and uncertainty. Should the optimists be proven correct, natural gas could become a major domestic feedstock for synthetically made liquid fuels. At present, however, there are no large-scale plants in existence in the United States that can convert natural gas into liquid transportation fuels. The development of commercial-scale plants with such capability might provide the nation with a "backstop." Such technology offers an additional benefit. There are, around the world, reserves of gas not presently available to the world energy market because of our inability to efficiently transport natural gas. If commercial plants could economically convert natural gas into liquids, the world's supply of liquid fuels would be much larger and more diverse. High Risk At present, all of the alternative liquid-fuel options involve such high risk that it is unreasonable to expect the private sector to carry out the necessary tests to determine their feasibility. If the nation is to have any alternative domestic liquid-fuel supply options, it seems clear that a federally supported effort will be required. A federal program aimed at underwriting a demonstration program for the production of liquid fuels, on a scale of somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000 barrels a day, would have potentially large benefits for the nation. Certainly those benefits are large if one of the objectives is national security. Unfortunately, the Synthetic Fuels Corporation, established by Congress in 1980 to promote commercial synfuels development, has done little to develop liquid-fuel alternatives to oil. This was, perhaps, to be expected, given the current administration's opposition to government initiatives and subsidies. It is important to emphasize that a federally supported alternative-fuels program should not 50 imply detailed government management. Quite to the contrary, government efforts to pick winner technologies and manage them so that they ultimately function in the commercial marketplace generally have not been successful. Federal subsidies for an alternative-fuels demonstration program such as that suggested here should be handled so that the government absorbs the major portion of the economic risk and leaves the management of the project to the individual private-sector concerns that will build and operate the plants. One attractive approach to such a subsidy program would be to have government simply provide a guaranteed market at a guaranteed price for the products of synthetic-fuel plants. Under such an arrangement, if the price of imported oil went above the negotiated price established for alternative fuels, there would be no extra cost to the government. Should the price of alternative fuels be higher than that of imported oil, the government would pay the difference. It must be emphasized that the goal of an alternative-fuels demonstration program is to provide the nation with an alternative to heavy dependence on imported oil. The achievement of that goal also will require the pursuit of offshore oil. The justification for federal support of liquid-fuel alternatives mustbe viewed in the same way that one views the premiums paid for insurance. The nation's situation with regard to liquid fuels makes it inappropriate to talk about a choice between offshore oil and gas development and alternatives to such development. There is a clear need for both. Don E. Kash is George Lynn Cross Research Professor of Political Science in the Science and Public Policy Program at the University of Oklahoma in Norman, Oklahoma. Acknowledgment This article was taken from a forthcoming book, U.S. Energy Policy: Crisis and Complacency, to be published by the University of Oklahoma Press in December, 1983. Recommended Readings Beck, R. |. 1983. Demand, imports to rise in '83; production to slip. Oil and Gas Journal. January 31. 81 (4): 71-78. Friends of the Earth. 1982. Ronald Reagan and the American Environment. San Francisco: Friends of the Earth Books. Kash, D. E., and R. W. Rycroft. 1983. U.S. Energy Policy: Crisis and Complacency. Norman, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press. In press. Kash, D. E., and others. 1973. Energy Under the Oceans. Norman, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press. Stobaugh, R., and D. Yergin, eds. 1979. Energy Future. New York: Random House. U.S. Office of Technology Assessment. 1982. Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiency and Synthetic Fuels: Alternatives for Reducing Oil Imports. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Ottice. Tropical Oceanography Graduate research and education at the University of Miami Programs in: Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Marine and Atmospheric Chemistry Marine Geology and Geophysics Applied Marine Science Marine Affairs Biological Oceanography Applications being accepted until 1 March 1984 for admission August 1984. Graduate Studies Office Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway Miami, Florida 33 149 (305)361-4000 51 NEW BOOKS OF INTEREST TO THE OIL &GAS INDUSTRY The Enc\clopedia of Earth Sciences Series, Volume XV THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF BEACHES AND COASTAL ENVIRONMENTS Edited by Maurice L. Schwartz, Western Washington University 1982, 960 pages, hardbound, 0-87933-213-1, $95.00 Until the publication of this newest volume in the Hutchinson Ross Encyclopedia of Earth Science Series there has been no single source of information on all aspects of coastal studies. This authoritative survey tills that gap. providing the most complete and useful work on the subject in existence. The volume is truly interdisciplinary in nature; it covers the geomorphic, biologic, engineering, and human aspects of the world's coasts. THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF BEACHES AND COASTAL ENVI- RONMENTS features approximately 500 alphabetically arranged entries written by 182 contributors, each a trained specialist in his or her par- ticular field. In selecting entries for inclusion. Dr. Schwartz placed em- phasis in making this encyclopedia a worldwide reference. The result is that almost half of the contributors are from outside the United States, a distinguishing factor from all the other works in this field. Extensive cross referencing within the volume and a very large, comprehensive index provide additional sources of information on the subject in question To further assist the reader in learning as much as possible about a given topic, references are provided at the end of each entry. The number of reference entries usually varies in direct proportion to the length of the entry. The length of each entry, while somewhat related to the importance of the topic, is more realistically an indication of the depth and breadth of treatment. The same topic may be dealt with from various viewpoints in a number of different entries. Citations within the entry are also correlated with the references, and these together provide a further guide to authoritative literature for further study. One of the Encyclopedia's special features is the descriptions of the geomorphology and ecology of all the coastal sectors of the world, arranged in separate entries by continent. Another valuable feature is the profusion of photographs that accompany the text, illustrating and ex- plaining (he concepts presented. THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF COASTAL ENVIRONMENTS is an essential reference work for geologists, biologists, environmentalists and ecologists. and engineers, among others in related fields of interest. Professors and students will find its interdisciplinary contents an invalu- able aid in the study of coastal environments. ABOUT THE EDITOR: Maurice L. Schwartz received advanced degrees, including the Ph.D. at Columbia University. He has been a professor of geology at Western Washington University since 1968. Additionally, he is currently an adjunct professor at the Institute of Coastal Studies, Nova University. He is the Editor of SPITS AND BARS and BARRIER ISLANDS, volumes 3 and 9, respectively, of the Hutchinson Ross Benchmark Papers in Geology Series. Computer Methods in the Geosciences Series, Volume 1 COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN PETROLEUM GEOLOGY Joseph E. Robinson, Syracuse University 1982, 288 pages, paperbound, 0-87933-432-0, $16.95 hardbound, 0-87933-444-4, $26.95 COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN PETROLEUM GEOLOGY is the first book to present a non-mathematical approach to the explanation of digital geological information. Written in plain English, it provides an up-to- date description of computer techniques currently being used in explo- ration geology. The volume takes an important step away from the highK specialized discipline of geomathematics by avoiding complex algo- rithmic statements in favor of graphics and data bases. The book begins with a description of the main geologic files and the value of individual types of information. Computer map compilation, map projection, and well logs are extensively covered in subsequent chapters. Along with petroleum geologists, other specialists in the petroleum industry com- puter geologists, geophysicists. geographers and energy resource ana- lysts will benefit from the information detailed in COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN PETROLEUM GEOLOGY. Given the academic- interest in this rapidly growing field, professors will find it answers their need for a text that addresses itself to current practices in exploration geology. It can be used on the undergraduate, graduate and post-graduate levels. CONTENTS: Geological Data; Data Files; Information Con- tents of Files; Application of Lithologic Data; Other Geological Data Files; Construction of Computer Maps; Computer Con- touring; Map Analysis Techniques; Secondary Maps and Dis- plays; Display and Comparison of Two or More Geologic Parameters; Multivariate Analysis of Geologic Data; Computer Analysis of Well Logs; Summary and Recommended Computer Applications in Geology. SCIENTIFIC AND ACADEMIC EDITIONS A Division of Van Nostrand Reinhold, Inc. Customer Service 7625 Empire Drive, Florence, KY 41042 Send me the book(s) checked below for 15 days' FREE examination. After 15 days I will send my remittance or else return the book(s) and OWE NOTHING. SAVE MONEY! Enclose payment with order and publisher pays postage and handling. Your local sales tax must be in- cluded with payment. 0-87933-213-1 Schwartz: The Encyclopedia of Beaches and Coastal Environments $95.00 0-87933-432-0 Robinson: Computer Applications in Petroleum Geology, paperbound $16.95 0-87933-444-4 Robinson: Computer Applications in Petroleum Geology, hardbound.. ..$26.95 SCIENTIFIC AND ACADEMIC EDITIONS Ireo! I - 10020 212 56 r . Name Address City _ State Zip Offer good in the U.S. only and subject to credit department approval. Prices subject to change. 5097 A 52 Ruth Dixon Turner Benthic Biologist I opically, she tells you little about her personal life; it is her way. She gamely dodges all enticements to introspection; and yet she gives you her all. Watch her as she closes in on you to repeat a favorite incident or by Michael B. Downing idea: her excitement is contagious. Her specialty is wood- boring mollusks. "Only now are we beginningto learn something of their physiology. They are difficult to collect and are not u attractive animals, so malacologists pay little attention to them though they are extremely destructive to wooden waterfronts and boats." Ruth Dixon Turner leans forward, lowers her voice. "But 53 no one asked why. Why did this piece of wood get infested and not that one?" She allows herself a reflective smile as she moves back into her seat. "That's what got me started. That is what I have tried to do ever since." Spurred by an interest in the systematics "There were so many names, and the descriptions and figures of the species were so poor" - she soon found herself stumped by the very problem she was hoping to resolve. In her first paper on shipworms, she described a "new" species from the West Indies, only to learn that the species had been described from Sumatra 122 years earlier. "I was horrified that I should have made such a mistake, and I vowed that I would not describe another teredinid until I had made a complete inventory of every name in the family." A few years later, still at work on the inventory "a great thing happened." Turner was invited to present a paper on teredinid systematics at a Friday Harbor symposium by Dixie Lee Ray. "How she knew who I was I don't know, but I will be forever grateful to her, because it was at that meeting I first 'met the Navy.'" Sid Caller, then head of the Oceanic Biology Branch of the Office for Naval Research (ONR), liked her paper, appreciated her problems, and asked what he could do to help. Her vow to know her animals defined her needs: access and time. Funded continuously by ONR for more than 20 years, Turner appreciates the Navy's sense of perspective. "One of the great things about ONR is that they believe that good long-range research depends on continued support. Though I've never had really large grants, I have been able to plan long-term projects involving students, colleagues, and personnel in several branches of the Navy." Her conversation is punctuated with references to these colleagues. She is the quintessential company woman - loyal and anxious for collaborative effort. Recounting a Navy experiment to collect boring and fouling organisms by placing panel arrays 50 feet below the surface to the bottom, at intervals from Fort Lauderdale to the Tongue of the Ocean, she pauses: "No university could support this kind of work, but by cooperating with John DePalma of the Naval Oceanographic Research and Development Agency we were able to prove experimentally that larviparous shipworms (those that brood larvae in their gills) were typically tied to shore and that the oviparous shipworms (with free-swimming larvae) were typically found in panels well offshore." How could a whole family of obligate deep-sea wood borers some 40 or more species evolve, if there was no wood in the deep sea? But, Turner and her colleagues discovered that the distribution of shipworms contradicted their experimental thesis, which was in line with general ecological theory. This sequence is exemplary: complete the experimental work and take your results to the field. When she straightens her 5' 3" frame in mock-military attitude and delivers her favorite command "Know your animals" - it is clear that this biologist practices what she preaches. In fact, it is the larviparous species that get around the world. Unlike the oviparous species, whose larvae must feed in the plankton for 30 days or more, the larviparous larvae are ready to settle on floating parent wood when they are released. "It is possible that a wooden ship from Europe would be harboring the fourth or fifth generation of a larviparous species by the time it reached Australia." Backed by ONR funding, Turner herself became something of an expert at getting around the world. She has worked in India with the Forest Research Institute on several occasions; that nation's fishing industry is particularly hard-hit by the damage done by the wood-boring shipworms. As a one-to-one exchange scientist under the U.S./U.S.S.R. Joint Committee on Cooperative Studies of the World Oceans, Turner studied the life history of Zachsiazeukewitshchi. It was the first she had seen of these animals in their sea habitat and she hopes someday to return to the marine station at Vostok to continue her research. And only hours after this interview, she was headed 200 miles due south of Woods Hole to go down 3,600 meters in the Atlantic. "One of our most reliable sites. We're at the base of the shelf and below the edge of the Cult Stream. We have placed quite a bit of wood there and several settlement trays, which Fred Grassle [Associate Scientist in the Biology Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI)] and I monitor as regularly as possible." "We" includes the crew and scientists aboard the catamaran Lulu and, of course, Turner's 16-ton diving companion Alvin, the deep submergence research vehicle operated by WHOI for the Navy. Turner's intended take is a new batch of Xylophaga, wood- boring bivalves.* The animals in this family (Pholadidae) are frequently confused with shipworms (Teredinidae). "These obligate deep-sea wood borers utilize the wood as a food and by so doing make this photosynthetic food source - which is recalcitrant enough to reach thedeep sea without being eaten available to the other animals and life systems in the deep." *ln fact, Turner got something more. The wood left at the site 3 years earlier was greatly reduced. Many of the older Xylophaga were parasitized, indicating build-up of more complicated populations. And, among the animals retrieved, she has "definitely a new species, and possibly a new genus of wood borers." 54 A deep sea wood-boring bivalve, newly metamorphosed, taken on the scanning electron microscope at 300x. (Photo courtesy of Museum of Comparative Zoology/Harvard University) These borers were the f i rst known opportunistic species in the deep sea. Author of the definitive monographs on both Teredinidae and Pholadidae, Turner likely did notexpecttobe thrust into the international limelight by virtue of her pursuit of these species. Her increasing interest in deep-water borers, however, brought attention to her work. "Whenever we put down wood we found them, yet the benthic biologists said they seldom dredged up wood. How could a whole family of obligate deep-sea wood borers some 40 or more species evolve, if there was no wood in the deep sea?This question bugged me for a long time. "Then came that 'happy accident' when Alvin was lost and after 11 months on the bottom the condition of the lunches on board suggested that bacteria were not as active in the deep as had been thought. This led to the first controlled biological experiments in the deep sea and the establishment of the first permanent bottom station." It was via an offer from Robert D. Ballard, formerly with ONR Boston and at the time associated with the WHOI Alvin group, that Turner first dove in Alvin. "I left Cambridge that afternoon and the next morning visited Lulu and Alvin and then boarded theCosno/d, because there were no living quarters for women on Lulu at that time." Ferried to Alvin on a Boston Whaler for the dive, Turner recalls her descent in the sub as "through an inverted snowstorm of luminescence, an experience I'll never forget. Reachingthe bottom, I gazed out the port virtually speechless for better than half an hour. When I finally got ready to make some notes I asked the pilot, Val Wilson, for the date. He said, 'Don't you know it is Friday, August 13th and we had the courage to take the first female down in this thing?' It was the first I knew that I was making history." Her career path to the benthos was not a direct one. The eight years after she took her B.S. she spent teaching, and curating the bird collection at the New England Museum of Natural History (forerunnerof the Boston Museum of Science). As a biology instructor at Vassar and, in 1944, as a master's candidate at Cornell, the would-be ornithologist accidentally discovered Vassar's uncataloged and improperly stored mollusk collection. Fascinated, she plunged from air to sea. After a 14-month stint at the William F. Clapp Laboratory in Duxbury, Massachusetts-- "I relied on my basic biology to get me through the transition" - she joined the staff of the mollusk department at Harvard's Museum of Comparative Zoology (MCZ). It was there, in 1954, that she took her Ph.D. from Radcliffe and began to establish herself with the great biologists and marine scientists of the period. Turner also was among the very last students taught by Henry Bigelow. On mention of his name, she leans forward again, lights a cigarette hurriedly. "Uncle Henry? He was great. I had a one-on-one course with him: Bigelow and Turner! He was quite elderly when I worked with him, and he could still figure out more that I didn't know in five minutes than anyone I've known. He was famous, but not petrifying: he scared me enough to let me know I had a long way to go. But, I figure that's what all professors are supposed to do! " As she leans back her voice gives way to an unusual wistfulness. "Though I've all but quit now, I still maintain that some of the very best conversation takes place over a cigarette. Nothing like it. I used to meet with Clench and Bigelow and all the others every day at Harvard for an informal smoking session on the steps of the MCZ. And I learned more there, listening for all I was worth, than in some courses." By the mid-1950s Turner herself was emerging as one of 55 the eminences she had so eagerly sought out. As a research associate, an Alexander Agassiz Fellow in Zoology and Oceanography, and a lecturer in the Biology Department, she became a fixture at Harvard - when she wasn't at one of her sites. Science should be fun. There is always something new, something you hadn't planned. "It has been exciting to put down 'islands of wood' and watch communities develop on and around them. The first to arrive are the larvae of wood borers." Within two years, grazers, filter feeders, scavengers, and predators abound. "How do all these species we have taken 81 species from a piece of wood 24 x 6x1 inches find the wood? What are their life histories? Their growth rates?" These questions extend to her celebrated work near the thermal vents off the Galapagos Islands. "The thermal vents are also transient islands of food - based on chemosynthesis. My interest is to compare the feeding types, life histories, and growth rates of the animals around the vents with those around the wood islands." The results of this work suggest that growth and reproduction rates in the deep-sea species can be similar to those of littoral species. Unlike many purists, Turner is anything but dismayed by the media attention to the exploration of the hot vents. "Anyone who can popularize science is great. They sell us. Literally. More people know about the excitement of the hot-vents research because of one National Geographic show than we could ever have informed. In India, people recognized me from the program. Such contributions are immeasurable. And any scientist knows that the glamor is less than 1 percent of the story. I suppose, though, that youngsters might get the wrong impression occasionally." Frankly, Ruth Turner seems capable of dealing singlehandedly with student perceptions. "I get young students in the freshman seminars at Harvard; they are alive. It's just a matter of directing and sustainingthem. And getting them caught up in the excitement of animal biology before someone else gets hold of them." Promotion academically came late and quickly for Turner. She is a rarity for having never been in a tenure-track position before she was made a full professor at Harvard in 1976. And, in 1979, WHOI appointed her to the official post of guest investigator. Her collaborative work with Roger Mann, a WHOI biologist, has expanded over these years, embracing investigations in all related fields. "At last, I am working with a group of people who can tackle all the problems. John Waterbury sssssssssssssssssssssssssss locate 1 SHIPWRECKS f for fishing and diving Shipwreck locations are plotted on lami- nated nautical charts, accompanied by Wreck Booklet showing name, type and size of vessel, date and cause of sinking, \t specific lat long and Loran C numbers, * depth, condition of wreck, and other data PACIFIC QWC- 1101 San Diego to Redondo Beach $ 1 w< i ,^44 Redondo Beach to San Francisco $ 1 8 (JWC- 1 364 San Francisco to Cape Lookout Oregon $ 1 8 w< 1 468 Cape Lookout . OR to Pachena Pomi BC $ 1 8 ATLANTIC AND GULF (once secret WWII charts) BayolFundy MEIoCapeCod $15 Georges Bank and Nantucket Shoals $15 Massachusetts Bay $15 Approaches 10 New York (Lltosouth NJ> $15 Cape May to Cape Hanerasiso NJIoNCI $15 i CapeHanerasloCharleslonLightiNC SO $15 [ WC 1112 Charleston Light to Key West(FL Ea coast) $15 WC- 007 GullOtMencolKey WesttoTe*asJ $15 Enclosed is my check for $ __ for the charts checked above Charge to my Q Visa # _ D Master Chg exp date Make checks payable to: WRECK CHARTS Suite 170-11 Creek Bend Drive Fairport, New York 14450 has cultured bacteria from the Gland of Deshayes found in the gills of shipworms, and shown that it both fixes nitrogen and digests cellulose. Roger Mann and Scott Gallagher are looking at energy budgets in larval and adult shipworms. Brad Galloway, a graduate student, works on histology and brooding biology. I'm an anatomist and systematise" And something more. Competence and accomplish- ment constantly give way to a cultivated sense of wonder, and sheelicitsthis sensibility in those around her. "Science should be fun. There is always something new, something you hadn't planned." Including a surprise celebration of her 65th birthday during a 1979 cruise on Lulu, mention of which is answered with a begrudged smile. "I didn't realize it was my bi rthday I don't know how old I am. But after the cake and all, Brodie (George Broderson) came up and pulled a silk rose from under his shirt. Where the hell he got it, I don't know. It is the most beautiful silk rose." Birthdays notwithstanding, she won't stop diving in/\/w'n "until they just won't let me down." For the record, and to save her the "rigamarole" of counting up entries in her field book, a WHOI computer obligingly disclosed that the first woman scientist to dive \r\Alvin was, at the time of this interview, late for a prelaunch meeting for her forty-third dive. "Cooperative work allows for the most rapid, efficient progress in this type of study. No one person has enough expertise to work alone." She speaks, characteristically, from experience. "Nothing replaces knowingyouranimals. Thattakes time sometimes more time than you thought you had to give. Nine to five just isn't the way science goes, at least my kind of science doesn't. You can't control yourtime, schedule everything in advance. Science has its own ways." Exacting, enduring, and cooperating though she might not admit as much, Ruth Dixon Turner was talking about herself. 56 Busf of Admiral Byrd in front of the flags of Treaty nations at McMurdo Base, Antarctica. (Photo by Russ Kinne/PR) Critical Antarctic Issues Emerging /\fter decades as a peaceful, scientific backwater, Antarctica and the Southern polar regions have emerged in 1983 to capture international and public attention. Special negotiations held this year to conclude a legal framework to govern minerals activities in Antarctica have sparked interest in the area as a source of potential mineral wealth. They also have aroused concerns among environmentalists and polar scientists worldwide about potential damage to the fragile Antarctic environment. Increasing interest in Antarctic science among nations not party to the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, combined with the gleam of mineral wealth and the application of the common heritage of mankind principle to seabed minerals beyond national jurisdiction in the 1982 Law of the Sea Treaty, have brought a call to "widen international cooperation in Antarctica." For too long, in the eyes of many of the world's nations, Antarctica has remained the province of an exclusive "club," with vestiges of colonialism attached. Their heightened level of interest in Antarctica today seems guaranteed to place the question of Antarctica on the UN General Assembly agenda this fall. The 14 Consultative Parties to the Antarctic Treaty have traditionally been reluctant to open their circle to countries inactive in Antarctica. For 22 years, they have managed this special domain for cooperative international science with responsible attention to preserving the unique Antarctic environment and protecting its living species. They also have successfully avoided any clashes over their divergent views on the 90' E National Claim Boundaries Research Stations Extent of Pack Ice tw Coal Deposits l l Oil Gas Deposits 57 area's territorial status.* In effect, the 1959 Antarctic Treaty "froze" the territorial status of Antarctica in order to reach agreement on demilitarizing the continent and furthering the scientific cooperation engendered during the 1957-58 International Geophysical Year. In 1959, however, the nations that became party to the Antarctic Treaty did not have to address resource-development issues and attendant questions of ownership. Even the upsurge in fishing activities off Antarctica in the mid-1970s did not pose insoluble difficulties. As coastal states' claims to 200-mile zones of fishery jurisdiction drove the distant-water fishing states south to new fishing grounds, the treaty members concluded a Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources in 1980, which sidestepped the issue of claims and fisheries jurisdiction off Antarctica. The Convention entered into force in April, 1982. Claims issues are not likely to arise until there are significant and competing fishing efforts in the Southern Ocean. But minerals activities pose more difficult questions. Title to mineral resources must be secure and exclusive in order to obtain investments in the minerals operation. This requires a widely recognized mechanism to convey title. In Antarctica, the divergent views on territorial status mean that there is no simple answer to "Whose is it?" In I982, the 14 treaty members commenced negotiations to design a minerals regime for Antarctica. No doubt they will come to an accord on how to convey title to minerals, for they value the preservation of the Antarctic Treaty system. *Seven treaty members claim sectors of Antarctica (Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, and Britain). The claims of Argentina, Chile, and Britain overlap. The other seven treaty members do not recognize any claims (Belgium, West Germany, )apan, Poland, South Africa, the Soviet Union, and the United States), although the United States and the Soviet Union maintain the right to make claim. Nevertheless, they must now respond to the awakened interest of the international community. The impending debate in the UN General Assembly this fall presents opportunities and challenges. It will be intricately intertwined with the initiatives of treaty members in minerals negotiations and in their regular biannual meeting, held this September in Australia. In April, 1983, the treaty members took the unprecedented step of inviting the 13 states with consultative status* that have become party to the Antarctic Treaty to attend the meeting as observers. *China acceded in )une 1983: other acceding states are Brazil, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, East Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Peru, Papua-New Guinea, Spain, Rumania, and Uruguay. The International Challenge Activities by countries not party to the Antarctic Treaty raise additional questions about the treaty system. For the last two Antarctic summers, the Indian Government has sent expeditions to Antarctica, but as of July, 1983, had not decided whether or not it will ultimately adhere to the treaty, which may be subject to formal review beginning in June, 1991. There have been recent indications, however, that India will seek consultative status. Any state is entitled to conduct peaceful, scientific activities under the Antarctic Treaty. The treaty members obviously prefer that these activities be conducted in accordance with the obligations and principles of the treaty. Activities conducted by nonparties are seen to undermine the application of the treaty. They also raise the possibility that these countries Argentine Antarctic Institute. (Photo by George Holton/PR) 58 may challenge the self-appointed and exclusive rights of the treaty members to determine the future of Antarctica. The subject of Antarctica is not new to the international agenda. Over the years, several international community spokesmen have questioned the exclusivity and secrecy of Antarctic Treaty meetings and raised the possibility that Antarctica and its resources could be considered part of mankind's common heritage.* The question of Antarctica was deliberately excluded from the Law of the Sea negotiations, which applied the common heritage of mankind principle to seabed minerals beyond national jurisdiction. Yet the recent conclusion of the Law of the Sea negotiations, combined with the Antarctic Treaty members' rush to complete a minerals regime, has fueled the belief that the treaty members may be about to appropriate exclusive decision-making responsibilities over, and benefits from, any minerals development which takes place in Antarctica. There are two difficulties with transposing the common heritage concept as applied in the Law of the Sea Convention to Antarctica: first, seven of the parties to the Antarctic Treaty claim sectors of Antarctica. Only a renunciation of the claims could place Antarctica and its resources indisputably in the "commons" domain. This is unlikely in the nearterm. *ln September, 1982, the Prime Minister of Malaysia raised the question of Antarctica in the General Assembly, notingthat: "It is now time that the United Nations focus its attention on [land areas which have neither natives nor settlers], the largest of which is the continent of Antarctica .... The fact remains that these uninhabited lands do not legally belong to the colonial powers. Like the seas and the seabeds, these uninhabited lands belong to the international community. The countries presently claiming them must give them up so that either the United Nations administer these lands or the present occupants act as trustees for the nations of the world." Second, even though the seven other treaty members do not recognize the claims, they value the Antarctic Treaty regime and its accomplishments. They would be extremely reluctant to accept any precipitous change in procedures governing the area, and they would inevitably side with the claimants in trying to preserve the Antarctic Treaty and its guarantees of peace and stability in the Southern polar regions. Antarctic Minerals Development The third meeting in the negotiations tor an Antarctic minerals regime took place in Bonn, West Germany, from |uly 11 to 22, 1983. Earlier meetings took place in Wellington, New Zealand, in June, 1982, and January, 1983. Three primary questions were addressed: 1)the "external accommodation," that is, how to not prejudice the interests of all mankind in Antarctica; 2) the "internal accommodation," relating to an agreement which both claimants and nonclaimants can accept in light of their differing views on the territorial status of Antarctica; and 3) how to protect theAntarcticenvironmentand its dependent ecosystems. There are no immediate prospects for commercial development of Antarctic minerals. Offshore oil and gas interests represent the most likely candidates for initial development activities, but these interests must first identify the potential. According to John Garrett, senior consultant to Gulf Oil Exploration and Production Company, "given the overhang of surplus capacity, I don't think oil prices will support anybody going to Antarctica in this century." F. G. Larminie, General Manager of British Petroleum's environmental control center in London, told the Pacific Science Congress meeting in New Zealand in February of this year that he estimated it would take25 years to extract marketable quantities of oil from the Antarctic if work started today, given the present state of knowledge of oil exploration technologies in ice-covered RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES Competitive visiting scholar awards for one or two years tenure in se- lected federal laboratories through- out the United States Opportunities are available for specialized experi- mental or theoretical research expe- riencefree of interruptions and distractions of other duties in the general fields of ATMOSPHERIC AND EARTH SCIENCES ENGINEERING LIFE AND MEDICAL SCIENCES PHYSICS CHEMISTRY ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES MATHEMATICS SPACE SCIENCES Most of the 19 programs are open to U S and non-U S nationals, and most are open to experienced senior investigators as well as to recent PhDs Application materials with details on research opportunities and lab- oratory locations may be requested by letter, stating the specific area of research interest, to Associateship Programs (JH 608-O1 ) NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington. D C 20418 itional Gouticil National Academy ot Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine NIOSH NBS NASA regions. And "that's without taking any account of economic considerations." In the June, 1983, issue of Offshore, the magazine asked 22 of U.S. industry's top geologists if they were granted an unlimited exploration budget and the authority to go anywhere, where would they go and why. Michel T. Halbouty, former Chairman of President Reagan's Energy Policy Advisory Task Force, said, "Antarctica. [It] is the last truly frontier resource area on the earth .... The continental margins of Antarctica occupy an area roughly similar to the continental margins of North America and are comprised of sediment wedges many kilometers thick .... "A portion of the offshore Antarctica margins that are conjugate to the Bass-Gippsland Basins of the Bass (Tasman) Strait in a Gondwanaland reconstruction may prove to contain large quantities of hydrocarbons. About 2.5 billion barrels of proven reserves are associated with the Cretaceous 59 f Adelie penguins on an iceberg in Hope Bay, Antarctica. (Photo by Jan and Des Bartlett/PR) and Tertiary sediments of the rift basins in the Gippsland Basin of Australia, which was apparently formed during or just prior to the breakup of Australia and New Zealand from Antarctica. The Ross Shelf-Balleny Islands area of Antarctica, conjugate to the Tasman Rise, has been surveyed using the seismic reflection method. This reconnaissance geophysical data, as well as drill hole information from several Deep Sea Drilling Project drill holes in the area, indicate a very thick sediment cover and thick concentrations of ethane and higher molecular-weight gases in the interstitial waters of the sediments." The Antarctic Environment How to protect the unique Antarctic environment and its dependent ecosystems is an issue of heightened concern among: 1) environmental constituents worldwide; 2) the treaty members, and in particular those most nearly adjacent to the Antarctic continent; 3) the world scientific community, whose activities in this pristine laboratory have made significant contributions to the store of scientific knowledge; and 4) international organizations with responsibility for the world environment. Concern for the environment, however, coexists in tenuous harmony in the Antarctic sphere with 1) the sense of urgency in completing a minerals regime that must be accepted by consensus; 2) varying degrees of emphasis among the treaty members on development versus conservation goals, and on how to establish a decision- making process that can accommodate these biases; and 3) the political imperative of devising a structure for decision-making on minerals resources development that does not prejudice either the claimant or the nonclaimant position. Since an Antarctic minerals regime will not emerge full-blown from these negotiations, but will rather provide a framework for the dynamic growth of institutions and rules as such activities become feasible, what is most important, from an environmental protection point of view, is that the principles and standards upon which decisions will be based, and the procedures for making these decisions, ensure maximum consideration of protecting the environment. Under the minerals regime contemplated, the first determination will be the basic issue of the circumstances under which proposed mineral activities will be acceptable, if at all. All subsequent decisions will flow therefrom. The standards and criteria applied to this determination and how it is taken will be critical to protecting the Antarctic environment. Lee A. Kimball, Consultant to the International Institute for Environment and Development RAYTHEON OCEAN SYSTEMS COMPANY OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTRUMENTATION AND RECORDERS Bathymetric systems for echo sounding, sub bottom and seismic- profiling- line scan recorders for spectrum analysis, sonar print-outs and laboratory applications. MARITIME SYSTEMS Including multipoint digital loading computers, Doppler speed logs and navigation depth sounders. OFFSHORE SYSTEMS Design, fabrication and operation of data acquisition and transmis- sion systems, including RATAC F back-up acoustic command sys- tem for emergency activation of blow-out preventers and other acoustic control systems. RAYTHEON Raytheon Ocean Systems Company Westminster Park, Risho Ave. East Providence, Rl 02914 (401) 438-1780 Special Student Rate! We remind you that students at all levels can enter or renew subscriptions at the rate of $15 for one year, a saving of $5. This special rate is available through application to: Oceanus, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Mass. 02543. 60 Reagan Stand on LOS Treaty Could Prove Costly A s has been noted elsewhere, including in the pages of Oceanus, the United States has decided not to sign the recently completed United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. While for the most part the provisions of that treaty are in concert with the United States' interests, those defining the regulation of deep seabed mining in the international area were deemed not to be. Over the objections of many marine analysts, the Reagan Administration has decided on a strategy of embracing those treaty provisions it finds acceptable and moving independently in those areas where it finds the treaty lacking: a strategy of "pick and choose," if you will. On March 10, 1983, President Reagan proclaimed an extension of the sovereign rights and jurisdiction of the United States to a distance of 200 nautical miles from shore (see Oceanus, Vol.26, No. 2, p. 67). The establishment of a U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was expected by most in the marine community and can be seen, at least in part, as an initial effort on the part of the Administration to begin to effectualize those aspects of the new United Nations Treaty on the Law of the Sea that it finds to be most in its national interest. At face value this may seem a wholly reasonable if not enlightened approach. However, as with most decisions in the political arena, along with the benefits accrued from a given decision there are also attendant costs. In this case, the decision to stay outside the treaty and to act independently of it, could, under certain circumstances, incur substantial costs. It should be remembered that the treaty whose ratification is being debated in more than 120 world capitals is the product of more than a decade of intensive negotiation. Its various provisions result from numerous trade-offs that have been skillfully molded into a tenuous package that pleases virtually no one and fully meets the interests of few, it any, countries. When the United States attempts to selectively accept individual provisions from the treaty, it must realize it is doing so at some risk. Many international legal scholars have come to view the treaty as a contract fully applicable only to parties that have ratified or acceded to it. If this rather widespread opinion were to be accepted by a majority of the maritime states, the costs to the United States could be quite high. Two examples serve to illustrate this point. The first concerns the status of strait transit. With the extension of the territorial sea from 3 to 12 miles, a number of international straits fall completely within the territorial seas of the adjacent countries. One of the earliest important compromises struck at UNCLOS III was that such straits could be freely transited under a new concept termed "strait transit," which allows for the unimpeded transit of ships through international straits and, importantly, for the submerged transit of submarines. Many legal scholars would suggest that strait transit is not currently customary THE CHALLENGE: Procuring uncontaminated water samples of: Suspended solids Trace elements Hydrocarbons Pollutants Metal ions Microbes In volumes of .5 to 30 litres,] at any depth, Using disposable bags made of: Polyethylene Laminates Teflon That are absolutely sealed before and after sample procurement. THE RESPON ROSETTE' CHOPSTICK SAMPLE Hi Kfe 1295 N.W. 163rd Street Miami, Florida 33169 Telephone: (305) 621-2882 Telex: 80-8247 61 international law and that the degree to which strait transit is now honored is because compromise on the concept was completed quite early in the This Publication is available in Microform. University Microfilms International Please send additional inlurnuli"ii tor Namc- Institution- Si reel Citv_ North A-ehRtud Ik-pi I' K -\nn-Vrhnr Mi -IXHIh bargaining to develop a comprehensive treaty. Strait transit does not exist in the international agreement currently in force; that is, the 1958 Convention on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone (in fact, Article 14: 6 of that treaty states that "(SJubmarines are required to navigate on the surface and to showtheirflag"). If the United States were to remain outside the treaty, three different scenarios concerning this question could emerge. First, the United States could be successful in its arguments that transit passage is already part and parcel of customary international law and activities in such areas would proceed accordingly. Second, the United States could make the same claim but not convince certain key nations (such as Indonesia and Malaysia) and could face the protests and conflict that would emerge from those disagreements. Third, HAS WHALE WATCHING BECOME A BIGGER INDUSTRY THAN WHALING WAS? It's nice to think so, but is it true? "Bigger" by what standard? Economic? Sociopolitical? In Herman Melville's time, when whaling meant oil to light houses and bones to stay corsets, congressmen did not hear from their constituents about protection of marine mammals. How has the development of nuclear power and the petrochemical industry changed all that? And what effect does writing your congressman have on ocean ecology anyway? Ask a simple question and you get back six hard ones. That's what happens when our faculty and students collaborate on a program in marine studies. Inquiries invited: COLLEGE OF THE ATLANTIC Box OUS, Bar Harbor, Maine O46O9 Tel.2O7-288-5O15 the United States could successfully negotiate a series of bilateral agreements with critical strait nations. It is unlikely, given the United States' current relations with many developing countries, that it will be possible to gain universal agreement for either of the first two options. The likelihood of conflict over the issue is high. Even if the United States were to take its case to the International Court of Just ice and win, the amount of time such a case would take to prepare, argue, and resolve would be long (even if the U.S. Department of Defense were to make available its transit records as evidence) and the costs of delay would be high. The third option also has several potential costs. The process of independently negotiating the numerous necessary treaties would also result in delays and larger expenses. Further, such bilateral or multilateral treaties, negotiated both serially and in parallel, should be consistent with one another, which could prove difficult given the differences in interests among coastal nations. If they are not consistent or uniform then the potential exists for contusion for both naval and general maritime navigation. A second example is that of marine science. The Exclusive Economic Zone as defined in the convention, grants coastal nations limited jurisdiction over the regulation of marine scientific research within the zone. A coastal nation's consent is required to conduct research, but, according to the treaty, such consent shall be granted under "normal circumstances." While the concept of a 200-mile EEZ does exist independent of the treaty in international law (as ruled recently by the International Court of Justice in the Lybian/Tunisian case) the specifics of jurisdiction with regard to access for research within the zone do not. It is possible that a coastal nation, in retaliation for the United States acting outside of the treaty (and, in its eyes, outside the law), would refuse access to U.S. scientists. If such a practice were 62 to become widespread, it could create substantial problems for the U.S. marine scientific community. There are several reasons that favor coastal nations responding in this way. First, marine science is an ongoing activity that can be dealt with by developing nations in apolitically timely fashion. Second, decisions on access are often made by government officials who do not appreciate the value of the scientific work being proposed (the value of the science is thereby inappropriately discounted). And third, it is easier to deny scientific access (essentially a passive act) than it is to force a transiting submarine to the surface. These reasons serve to highlight the present vulnerability of marine science to politically motivated actions driven by a U.S. decision to act independently of the Law of the Sea Convention. In fact, there is evidence that such problems are already emerging. Systematic Evaluation Needed The status of the convention and its individual provisions in international law figure prominently in the way the rest of the world will deal with the United States. An important consideration is the degree to which the treaty will drive the practice of coastal nations which is, in turn, largely a function of the number of countries either ratifying or acceding to the convention. If nonratification is widespread, the United States will be less open to the kinds of retaliation described here. If, however, the United States stands alone in its disapproval, the costs could be substantial. What is needed, before much further action, is a more systematic evaluation of the specific benefits and likely costs that will derive from the unilateral approach currently favored by the United States. This nation's approach must be cautiously based on the actions of those nations that abstained in the final vote on the convention. Of those nations, japan has already signed the treaty, and the Soviet bloc countries have said they will do so shortly. That leaves a rather small group of nations (which at this point includes several West European countries) still supporting the U.S. position. This is not a situation in which the United States can afford to be too stoic. If Great Britain, West Germany, and Belgium decideto sign the treaty, the United States could incur costs that would well outweigh any potential benefits derived from rejecting the treaty. This is a time for the United States to tread lightly and to avoid precipitous activity, and to await an indication that "like-minded" nations will follow its lead. Robert E. Bowen, Research Fellow, Marine Policy and Ocean Management Program, Woods Hole Oceanograpic Institution NASA/FSU GRADUATE STUDENT TRAINEESHIP The Florida State University is accepting ap- plications from prospective graduate stu- dents for participation in its NASA sponsor- ed Traineeship Program in Oceanographic Remote Sensing Techniques and Physics of Air-Sea Interaction. The students may be enrolled in Ocean- ography or Meteorology The stipend for the calendar year is $10,600. For further information or application please write: Dr. James J. O'Brien NASA Traineeship Program Meteorology Annex The Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida 32306 (904) 644-4581 toOKTO KERNCO |-N REFRACTOMETERS & pH METERS SALT REFRA CTO METERS Measure Salt Percentage MODEL 800 329 600L SALT RANGE 0-28% 0-10% 0- 5% PRICE $150.00 $165.00 $175.00 Also Available pH, Conductivity (IDS) & D.O. Meters, Controllers and Recorders. REQUEST CATALOG AN-82 KERNCO Ph 915-852-3375 INSTRUMENTS CO.. INC 420Kenazo El Paso.TX 79927 Cbl KERNCO Tlx. 74-9487 63 To the Editor: We were somewhat perturbed to read the article entitled "Ocean Dumping" by Farrington, et al (Oceanus, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 39-50, Winter 1982/3) and discover that, according to its Figure 1 , one of the world's "major dumping locations" is situated off the west coast of New Zealand's North Island the only such site in Australasia. New Zealand is a small, sparsely populated, largely agricultural country with a small (by world standards) amountof heavy industry which produces what are commonly referred to as toxic or hazardous wastes. These wastes are either disposed of onshore, recycled, or discharged as minor components in the few major marine sewage outfalls around the coast. The little black square purportedly depicting New Zealand's sole ocean dump site is far removed from any such outfall, is alongside one of this country's most rural provinces, and is in fact the exact location of the Maui A natural gas production platform. This platform forms half the base of New Zealand's gas processing industry, and is operated for the government by Shell-BP-Todd Oil Services Limited. The only wastes discharged to the sea at this site are process wastes and sewage effluent and the company has never dumped any toxic or solid SCIENTIFIC WRITING FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS This manual is a "musl" for those who would introduce courses of in- struction in scientific writing into university graduate schools. The first nine chapters provide the essentials for "Writing a Journal Article," and the remaining five chapters cover "Related Topics" in scientific com- munication. CONTENTS: I. Clearing Away the Underbrush 2. The Ground Plan 3. The Master Plan 4. The First Draft 5. The First Revision: Structural Alterations 6. Further Revision: Polishing the Style 7. Editing Assignments 8. The Final Steps 9. Re- sponding to the Editor 10. Design of Tables and Figures 11. Prep- aration for Writing the Doctoral Thesis 12. Writing a Research Pro- ject Proposal 13 Oral Presentation of a Scientific Paper 14. Principles and Practices in Searching the Scientific Literature Paperbound; ISBN: 0-914340-01-8; Published 1968, reprinted 1983; Trim size: 6x9 inches; 190 pages Regular Price: $9.75 (10"/o discount on 10 or more copies delivered to one address) CBE Member Discount Price: $8.75 (single copy paid by personal check) Terms of Sale: All sales final; no returns. Prepayment required; U.S. currency drawn on a U.S. bank Price includes BOOK RATE postage. For faster delivery-first class, air mail, or UPS available at additional charge (book weight, 11.5 oz). Maryland residents, please add 5