Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Los Angeles Lakers (1-0) at Golden State Warriors (0-1)
- When: Thursday, May 4, 2023
- Time: 6:00 p.m. PT / 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Chase Center (San Francisco, California)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Lakers +5.5 (-108), Warriors -5.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Lakers +190, Warriors -230
- Total: Over/Under 227.5 (-110/-110)
Note: Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
After dominating in home games all regular season (33-8) and in the first two games of their first-round series (2-0) against Sacramento, the Golden State Warriors have dropped back-to-back bouts in the Chase Center for the first time since early January.
Now, the Warriors have lost their home-court advantage in the Western Conference Semifinals and will have to eventually grab a road win against Los Angeles, a team that has been on fire over the past few months. However, before doing that, the Dubs must secure a home win in Game 2 and break their surprising streak; can they do it?
Keep reading for a complete, in-depth analysis of this crucial Game 2 and our favorite basketball bets below, featuring our spread, moneyline and point total picks. Remember: Gambling is not a reliable way to make money.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Lakers vs. Warriors
For Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals, the Golden State Warriors are a 5.5-point spread home favorite, despite losing in Game 1.
The injury report for both teams is favorable, as Ryan Rollins, Andre Iguodala and Patrick Baldwin Jr will be out for Golden State, while Mo Bamba will miss Game 2 for Los Angeles. None of the aforementioned players are used in either team’s regular rotation.
The Los Angeles Lakers almost blew Game 1 after giving up a 14-0 run late in the fourth quarter. Luckily, D’Angelo Russell was able to snap that streak with a layup, giving the Lakers just enough momentum to cross the finish line. Will they be able to put together a similar performance in Game 2?
The Warriors seem to be in better overall physical shape; it was clear that they were wearing down Los Angeles in the fourth quarter with their constant offensive movement, which Anthony Davis described as “controlled chaos.”
Expect the Warriors to “pack the paint” and go under most ball screens in Game 2, forcing Los Angeles to hit outside shots, which it has struggled to do in the regular season and playoffs. In the Lakers’ last six playoff games, they have shot just 27.8% from behind the arc, a mark that will hardly cut it if the Warriors make the necessary defensive adjustments.
Rebounding was not nearly as big of an issue as expected for Golden State, as Los Angeles only secured four more rebounds in Game 1. However, what was significant was the differential between free throw attempts (25-5) and points in the paint (54-28.) If the Warriors protect the interior better and get to the free-throw line more, they will be in great shape. All things considered, the Warriors’ moneyline (-230) and spread (-5.5) are viable plays in Game 2.
That doesn’t mean either bet has value, but if you want to put some money on the line, that’s what we’d recommend.
The point total for Game 2 is 227.5 was of Wednesday evening, after narrowly hitting the over on the point total (228) in Game 1. Golden State and Los Angeles hold a combined 7-8 “over” record thus far in the 2023 postseason. Furthermore, this season, the Lakers and Warriors had combined for an over record of 18-7 when the line was between 226 and 229 points.
Prop Bets: Lakers vs. Warriors
- Lakers C Anthony Davis To Record 3+ Blocks (-190)
Golden State made it a point to avoid Anthony Davis in the paint; it shot 53 three-pointers after head coach Steve Kerr stated that the Warriors needed to make sure they were being smart offensively and not just throwing up wild layup attempts around the Lakers’ rim protection. Kerr is referring to Davis, who averaged an incredible 4.3 blocks per game in the Lakers’ first-round series against Memphis.
Still, it made no difference, as AD logged four blocks in Game 1 against the Warriors, despite a concerted effort to avoid him. Davis should get to three blocks with relative ease, especially if he is playing 44 minutes like in Game 1.
- Warriors C Kevon Looney Over 13.5 Rebounds (-132)
After an incredible rebounding performance in Game 1, it is difficult to imagine Kevon Looney failing to grab 14 rebounds, especially given the matchup and his importance on the floor.
Golden State is an undersized team, at least relative to the Los Angeles Lakers, and that showed itself mainly on the defensive end of the floor, where it gave up 54 points in the paint. For the Warriors to avoid digging themselves too big of a hole, Looney will have to continue playing 30 or more minutes in every game this series.
When Looney has played at least 29 minutes, he has recorded 14 or more rebounds in five consecutive games. Furthermore, he slaughtered this line in four of those five games, amassing 20 or more rebounds during that stretch.
- Lakers PF LeBron James Under 2.5 Threes (-154)
To say that LeBron James is in a shooting slump would be a gross understatement; he has shot just 18.4% from behind the arc in the postseason. Further, he has failed to eclipse this line in six consecutive playoff games. Additionally, James has only hit two three-pointers in one of those six games, meaning he hasn’t been close to this line in quite some time.
LeBron undoubtedly has one of the highest basketball IQs in the history of the game, and it would be shocking to see him continue to shoot at this volume from deep (seven 3PA per game in the playoffs). He won’t shoot himself out of this slump in games like these, as every shot is too valuable.
Same-Game Parlay: Lakers vs. Warriors
For this potentially series-altering Game 2 between the Lakers and Warriors, check out our four-leg same-game parlay:
- Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-230)
- LeBron James Under 2.5 Threes (-154)
- Kevon Looney Over 13.5 Rebounds (-132)
- Anthony Davis To Record 3+ Blocks (-190)
The Warriors surprisingly dropped Game 1 at home against Los Angeles, but don’t expect them to drop a second consecutive game on Thursday night. Golden State has championship pedigree and great resiliency and should bounce back for a huge Game 2 win, especially given the substantial margin in free throw attempts, fouls and points in the paint in Game 1.
Coach Steve Kerr should make the necessary adjustments, like sagging off of Lakers’ players, forcing them to hit three-pointers, which they have failed to do at a high level so far in the playoffs.
LeBron’s offensive struggles continue after a 1-8 shooting night from behind the arc; he has failed to hit more than two three-pointers in six-straight games. Additionally, he has not even hit two three-pointers in five of his past six games. With such a quick turnaround from Game 1 to Game 2, LeBron will likely not have the proper rest or time to make significant changes on that end of the floor.
Kevon Looney is fresh off his career-high for rebounds in a game (23); he has dominated on the glass this postseason, grabbing at least 14 rebounds in five of his past six games. With Golden State likely to place a significant amount of emphasis on Davis after his explosive performance in Game 1, expect Looney to see at least 30 minutes in Game 2, as the Dubs don’t have anyone else who can defend him remotely well.
Despite Golden State’s best efforts to avoid shooting in the paint around Davis, he still managed to log four blocks in 44 minutes of play. If Davis continues to perform like he has this postseason on the defensive end, he should have no issue getting to this line.
This parlay has +432 odds, so a winning $100 wager would return $432 in profits along with your original stake.