The Case For “Avalanche Decoupling” From China
[Subscription Required] Planning for Dramatic U.S. Action in a Crisis Will Make One Less Likely.
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Eyck Freymann is a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and a non-resident research fellow at the China Maritime Studies Institute, US Naval War College.
A historian and China specialist by training, Dr. Freymann works on a range of national security topics, including strategic deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, the geopolitics of climate change, emerging defense technology, and economic coercion and crisis contingency planning. His first book, One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World, was published by Harvard University Press in 2021. His essays have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, The Economist, War on the Rocks, Foreign Policy, and The Atlantic.
Dr. Freymann previously held postdoctoral fellowships at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and the Columbia–Harvard China and the World Program. He holds a doctorate in China studies from Balliol College, University of Oxford; master’s degrees in China studies from Harvard University and St Edmunds College, University of Cambridge; and a bachelor’s in East Asian history from Harvard College.
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[Subscription Required] Planning for Dramatic U.S. Action in a Crisis Will Make One Less Likely.
China’s military exercises in the waters around Taiwan this month — the largest in almost three decades — highlight the growing risk of a total breakdown in United States-China relations. A full-scale invasion of Taiwan is one eventuality; last year, the C.I.A. director, William Burns, noted that China’s president, Xi Jinping, has instructed his armed forces to be ready for an invasion by 2027.
Hoover Institution released On Day One: An Economic Contingency Plan for a Taiwan Crisis by fellow Eyck Freymann and affiliated research associate Hugo Bromley; prescribing an alternate path, in which the United States pulls away from the People’s Republic of China slowly and methodically, in a manner that brings along allied, like-minded, and even neutral states.
Hoover Institution fellow Eyck Freymann talks about China’s views and actions on climate change and whether there is room for cooperation between the US and China.
The Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) is pleased to invite you to a panel discussion, “Taiwan Contingency Scenarios and Legal Deterrence: Issues for US-Taiwan Policy.” Taiwanese citizens have become accustomed to the growing number of Chinese military aircraft and naval vessels operating around Taiwan since 2022.
Hoover fellow Eyck Freymann and Cambridge University’s Hugo Bromley join Hoover distinguished research fellow Glenn Tiffert for a conversation about an economic contingency plan for a Taiwan crisis, based on their new report, On Day One: An Economic Contingency for a Taiwan Crisis.
The United States lacks an economic contingency plan for conflict with China. Hard decoupling through sanctions is not viable. Instead, the United States should prepare a “Day One” plan based on economic leadership and recovery. By harnessing incentives and market forces, Washington and core US allies can trigger avalanche decoupling in trade while working with the interests of third states and preserving dollar hegemony and the rules-based trading system.
WAY BACK MACHINE – This article from 2022 details PRC interests in Greenland and the broader arctic. It provides insight into some of the dynamics driving the debates about the Danish colony that is nearly double the size of Alaska.
In the past three years, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India has emerged as the most important geopolitical grouping in global politics. Initiated in 2007, by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the partnership has expanded from a single dimension of cooperation—the Malabar joint military exercises—to a range of dimensions, including digital standards, public health, and infrastructure finance.
Eyck Freymann of the University of Oxford shows how Chinese-language propaganda use historical analogies to explain and justify the OBOR scheme.
"Every generation revolts against its fathers and makes friends with its grandfathers,” the historian and social theorist Lewis Mumford wrote in The Brown Decades, his 1931 book about post–Civil War America. Something similar is happening in the United States today, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“There is a mysterious cycle in human events,” said Franklin Delano Roosevelt, accepting the Democratic nomination for president in Philadelphia in 1936. “To some generations much is given. Of others much is expected. This generation of Americans has a rendezvous with destiny.”
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