Oxford Economics

🔎 What is in store for leading US metros over the next 18 months and beyond? 📈 ➡️The major policy proposals announced by the Trump administration have and will continue to affect the economy in disparate ways with manufacturing impacted due to tariffs and the leisure and hospitality sector seeing fewer global travellers. ➡️We forecast low yet positive GDP growth across the largest 50 metros in 2025 followed by a healthier 2026. Fiscal stimulus via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will support consumer spending next year, generating higher GDP growth for wealthier metros. Fuelled by their tech sectors, San Jose, Austin, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Raleigh are forecast to lead GDP growth. Those with the highest exposure to tariff-sensitive sectors—New Orleans, Washington, Memphis, Detroit, and Honolulu—are expected to trail. ➡️We forecast lower job growth in 2025 than in 2024 with more moderating gains in 2026, due to weak demographics and lower immigration. However, and despite continued federal job cuts, we anticipate that nearly all the top 50 metros will add jobs this year and next. Sun Belt metros—Charlotte, Orlando, Raleigh, Salt Lake City, and Honolulu—continue to lead despite decelerating net migration trends. Trailing metros in the near-term include Memphis, San Francisco, Kansas City, Providence, and Denver. Fewer metros will lose tech-related jobs. ➡️Over the medium-term (through 2029), of the major US cities, we expect Seattle and San Francisco to lead with average GDP growth exceeding 3% year-on-year. Washington D.C., Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia will see slower growth than the national average. Learn more about our US metro service: https://okt.to/bYyKsd

Is Oman’s upgrade a sign of lasting stability? 📈 Moody’s has upgraded Oman’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3, officially restoring its investment-grade status. This upgrade reflects improved fiscal discipline, with debt falling to 36.4% of GDP, and greater resilience to oil price shocks thanks to diversification efforts. Meanwhile, inflation remains a mixed bag across the region: 📉 Oman: Inflation steady at 0.5%, with food and beverage prices in deflation. 📊 Saudi Arabia: Headline inflation at 2.3% – but rental inflation remains high at 6.5%. 🔥 Israel: Inflation above target at 3.3%, though easing is expected by year-end. 🔗 More Middle East insights: https://okt.to/Lh78oP 🎙️ With Adam Holdstock #MIAM #creditratings #inflation #SaudiArabia #israel

What is the latest outlook for Asia Pacific’s key cities? The latest outlook for #APAC and its key #cities is mixed— some cities and regions are more susceptible to downside risks from #tariffs and #trade than others. Singapore’s global transshipment centre and Japan and South #Korea’s auto manufacturing hubs in Aichi and Ulsan are likely to be under more pressure. Whilst services focussed cities across India and Southeast Asia mitigate such risks with strong growth in information & communications and professional services. Read more about our forecasts for cities around the world here: https://okt.to/eD1zWg #growth #GDP

What’s the latest outlook for China’s major cities? The outlook for #China and its major #cities has become increasingly uncertain amid the turbulence of the country's #trade relations with the United States. The downside risk to the short-term growth performances of export-dependent cities, including Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Shanghai remains high. On the upside, we expect information & communications, finance, and professional services to remain areas of strength, supporting tech hubs across the country. Read more about our forecasts for cities around the world here: https://okt.to/Bjz1Wm #growth #trade

Which regions of Germany will benefit from its fiscal splash?💶 Germany has recently announced plans to drastically increase spending on defence and infrastructure, which we expect to boost GDP growth significantly over the medium term. Regarding domestic military production, given the current backlogs the main question is which firms can expand their capacity, and where these new sites would be located. Our search into plans for such expansions and conversions of civilian plants for military production shows that they are spread all across the country. And though we have raised the prospects for these regions by more, there will undoubtedly be more such expansions. Furthermore, once we consider supply chain links—many other regions will also see a boost. And the story is broadly similar for Germany's large new infrastructure fund as all states are set to benefit from this investment, with the east potentially seeing a slightly bigger impact. Learn more in our recent report: https://okt.to/ONSvWa

How would the Eurozone economy fare under a 30% US tariff? Download our latest report today: https://okt.to/gz0Rv6 US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU from August 1 represents another escalation in the ongoing trade war between the two blocs. Using our Global Economic Model, we estimate that this could cut Eurozone GDP growth by up to 0.3ppts annually over the next two years. The latest decision to delay its planned retaliatory measures until next month shows the EU still hopes to reach a deal before the August 1 deadline. #Eurozone #macroeconomics #Trumptarrifs #OxfordEconomics

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How does culture power city economies? 🎭 In the 2025 update of the Global Cities Index, we've identified 63 Cultural Capitals among the 1,000 cities—ranging from powerhouse economies like New York and London, to smaller, culture-rich cities like Reykjavik and Florence. In our latest blog, we explore the virtuous cycle benefitting the Cultural Capitals, and the economic benefits of cultural investment: https://okt.to/B7Wy3K

Will rising supply and easing risks drive oil prices lower? Oil prices held just below $70pb this week, despite OPEC+ announcing a larger-than-expected 548,000 bpd output increase for August. We expect Brent to fall below $65 by early 2026 as supply rises and risk premia ease. In Israel, the central bank kept rates at 4.5% amid conflict-driven uncertainty. With inflation set to average 2.9%, rate cuts may follow this quarter. 🔗 More insights: https://okt.to/trO04z 🎙️ With Farah ElRafei #OilPrices #MiddleEast #OPEC #IsraelEconomy #MENA