📢 I’m SO excited to share two new pieces we released today at Resources for the Future exploring the fast-evolving world of direct lithium extraction (DLE) through an economics lens.
🔹 In our new RFF report, "Can Emerging Industrial Technologies Compete? Scoping the Market Viability of Direct Lithium Extraction in the United States"
, Frances Fitzgerald (Harvard Kennedy School MPP ’26) and I analyze the financial viability of several companies planning DLE projects in the US.
💡 Some key takeaways:
💲 Lithium prices can make or break US DLE. Projects are only profitable if prices rise well above current levels; fortunately, industry forecasts suggest that may happen as global EV demand grows.
⚙️ Technology risk remains high. DLE’s strong lab performance (up to 90% lithium recovery) hasn’t yet been proven at commercial scale, and cost overruns, production delays and underperforming recovery efficiency could quickly undermine project economics.
📉 Macroeconomic headwinds matter. Inflation, interest rates, and investor caution could affect early-stage DLE projects, which are especially sensitive to the cost of capital.
🏛️ Policy support could help—but at a cost. A government-backed price floor for lithium could provide a lifeline during downturns, but the cost of sustaining such support could quickly balloon, especially as the number of protected companies grows.
🔹 In a companion RFF blog, "Direct Lithium Extraction in Arkansas: A Golden Goose for the State?" —co-written with Frances and Andrew Beach (The George Washington University ’27)—we explore what a thriving DLE industry could mean for Arkansas' state and local revenues, and what happens if things don’t pan out as hoped.
💡 The takeaway: DLE could generate substantial royalties and taxes for the region, but only if projects scale up successfully.
- Check out the blog here: https://lnkd.in/diU9cap5
I’m especially proud of Frances’s excellent work leading the report, and it was a real pleasure collaborating with both her and Andrew this summer- so thankful for RFF's amazing internship program! (Applications open early next year, so stay tuned!)
Finally—if you’ll be at the Arkansas Lithium Innovation Hub's Innovation Summit starting tomorrow, I’d love to connect! It’ll be great to discuss how analysis like this can inform development of lithium resources - and the policies that support it - not just in Arkansas, but across the country.
📰 Download the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dd-cpw3x