Brent Lutes

In this episode of “Driven to solve,” professor David Fortunato discusses trade policy and the differential impact it can have on different types of people. His research specifically focuses on the difference between men and women as producers and consumers. Watch: https://ow.ly/hW2450U3cFq

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Excited to share the results of our team's recent publication: "Compared to males, females had a higher prevalence of reporting a fall (4.3%), a fall with injury (9.9%), worrying about falling 9.1%), rushing to the toilet (8.5%), trouble stepping onto a curb (8.4%), taking medicine for sleep or mood (6.0%), feeling sad or depressed (5.3%), and feeling unsteady (4.6%). Males reported a higher prevalence of losing feeling in feet (9.4%), ≥ 1 fall in the past year (8.1%), and using hands to stand up (4.4%). Compared to White older adults, Native American/Alaska Natives had the highest prevalence of fall history (43.8%), Hispanics had the highest prevalence of falls with injury (56.1%), and Hispanics and Blacks had a higher prevalence of reporting 11/12 Stay Independent Questionnaire risk factors." #fallprevention #STEADI Jennifer Vincenzo, PhD MPH PT https://lnkd.in/e4BPrzgH

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Join me for this conversation about " Lousy Data, Lousy Decisions: The Crisis Facing U.S. Statistical and Information Systems" Monday, Oct. 7 | 1 p.m. EDT/ 10 a.m. PDT Statistical agencies are confronting falling survey response rates, poor funding, privacy concerns and attacks on their independence. We’re facing a slow-moving problem that’s quickly headed toward crisis unless we intervene and retool our data infrastructure. At the same time, new data sources, cheap hardware and novel software are generating big opportunities that we can capitalize on in the very near term. To craft a 21st-century national data infrastructure, Cornell ILR School’s Erica Groshen says we need to create new, blended data statistical products and adopt data standards to meet these myriad challenges. There’s a path forward, but it’ll take strong political will and a national focus to correct the course. Join us to hear more! All can register here: https://lnkd.in/gaDgg377

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The State Department is offering a stellar picture of how AI can and should be used, diffused, and experimented with in the federal government. Agencies like State fundamentally depend on the human. Diplomacy is centered around relationships, rapport and common understanding - things robots cannot easily replace. What robots *can* replace is the tedious work holding back this essential relationship building labor. These are the very tasks State is trying to automate. Other human-centric agencies should look to this model, borrow what works, learn from what doesn't, and try to lean into the experimental process of discovering how AI can be best used so that we can maximize the value of our public services and use our ever-limited budgets to maximum effect. https://lnkd.in/eKH9uz3N

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There are only 9 days left to submit to our special issue titled "Digital Transformations in Asian Politics: Opportunities, Challenges, and Implications for Democracy." For more details, see the CfP: https://lnkd.in/eUeS2uPc

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My latest paper, with co-authors, is now on SSRN. Using a newly developed dataset of all federal civil filings between 2016-2017 we show that in 60% of cases there were no dispositive motions filed, another 10% exit the system, leaving only 30% of cases with a dispositive motion filed. We explore some explanations for why this might be, and consider what it means for theories of civil litigation. If you are interested, the paper is here: https://lnkd.in/efzxQCta

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For those of you interested in collective action and policy, check out the research case summaries provided by the Institutional Grammar Research Initiative (IGRI). These are short, easily understood, and accessible summaries of recent research. I love them because they give me an overview of key developments in IG-related fields and can be shared with nonacademics and policymakers who often don't have time to read a manuscript. Here's a link to the full suite of research cases offered by IGRI: https://lnkd.in/g4K9-xrB

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We just updated our recent analysis of Policy Options for Reducing the Federal Debt and added an important new section: a distributional analysis of the three policy bundles we analyzed. Our conventional distributional analysis shows how much households' after-tax and transfer incomes change across the income distribution in a given year. Our dynamic distributional analysis, expressed as an equivalent variation, indicates how much each household, categorized by income and age, values the proposed policy change over their entire lifetime. This value is represented as a one-time transfer at the time of the policy change. Read the updated report at https://lnkd.in/e8jpNhdd

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest baseline projections for the federal student loan program yesterday. Over the 2024-2034 budget window, CBO expects federal student loans to cost taxpayers $393 billion. That's more than the $355 billion CBO expects us to spend on Pell Grants, the flagship college aid program for low-income students, over the same time period. The figures include $221 billion in losses on the loans CBO expects the federal government to originate over the next decade, along with $140 billion in re-estimates of the costs of outstanding student loans. The latter is driven by President Biden's student loan cancellation initiatives, notably his changes to income-driven repayment (IDR) plans to make them more generous. The role of IDR plans in driving these costs can't be overstated. CBO generally expects taxpayers to profit on loans repaid through traditional fixed-term repayment plans. But loans repaid on IDR plans will incur losses ranging from 30 to 48 cents on the dollar. There's even reason to think CBO's projections are too rosy. Read more in my latest post at Forbes: https://lnkd.in/e6qPjgrj

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Reciprocity and the China Shock - Bob Staiger (discussed by Eric Bond and Mary Lovely) Equilibrium Trade Regimes: Power- vs. Rules-Based - Emanuel Ornelas (discussed by Kyle Bagwell and Gregory Shaffer) The Political Economy of Carbon Taxes and Green Subsidies in a World Economy - Giovanni Maggi (discussed by Rodney Ludema and Han-koo Yeo) Mutual Recognition in the International Protection of Intellectual Property - Difei Geng (discussed by Kristy Buzzard and Scott Lincicome) Regulation of Shared Information: A case study of the WTO and infant formula - Katheryn Russ (discussed by Kala Krishna and TBA) Direct-to-Consumer Trade and the Value of De Minimis - Amit Kandelwhal (discussed by Davin Chor and Gary Hufbauer) What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes? - Jing Zhang (discussed by Rafael Dix-Carneiro and TBA) International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions - Fabio Ghironi (discussed by Andrea Lanteri and TBA)

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We look forward to publishing Brandon J. Anand's article, It’s Time for a Precise, Narrowly Tailored Federal Right of Publicity, in the symposium issue of our forthcoming journal (Volume 27). In this article, Mr. Anand argues that a precise, narrowly tailored federal right of publicity will promote creativity and business rather than stifle it and protect First Amendment rights. It provides an overview of the lack of consistency and uniformity between states’ right of publicity statutes and concludes by examining what a federal right of publicity should look like and how it would apply in practice. Visit our website to learn more: https://lnkd.in/gkR_VsJA

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Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data James Cloyne, Nicholas Dimsdale, and Patrick Hürtgen Journal of Political Economy | Jan 2025 (Ahead of Print) Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918 to 2020, we show that tax cuts are expansionary in both low-interest-rate environments and more normal times https://lnkd.in/ePZ_mA7N # journals economics

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The U.S. pardon system creates bad incentives and undermines judicial independence. Check out my short text “Reform the System” in the The Washington Post that makes concrete proposals for a necessary reform: https://lnkd.in/eMA869xA

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The FTC has released areas of interest to which they are interested in learning more. This is an excellent mechanism for academics and researchers to help inform and guide our government agencies as we navigate the complexities of how technology is colliding with individuals, societies, and democracies. 1. AI-enabled Fraud and Scams – On AI-enabled technologies that may turbocharge fraud and scams 2. AI and Competition – On generative AI impacts across layers of the tech stack 3. Algorithmic Pricing – On price fixing by algorithms 4. Surveillance & Data Privacy – On tracking mechanisms, mass data collectors, and privacy-enhancing technologies 5. Data Security – On addressing security vulnerabilities systemically 6. Open Models – On dynamics related to open models and large players 7. Platform Design – On default design choices 8. Digital Capacity – On building digital capacity in tech regulatory organizations

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To add to the chorus of analyses of the Trump victory with insights for future elections in the US and globally, Anne Jamison and my co-authored paper just released on open access in the journal Democratization, highlights that rising support for populism globally is neither driven by supply (i.e., effective anti-elite rhetoric) nor demand (i.e., economic and cultural grievances) alone but rather both in a mutually reinforcing recursive system. "Given the positive feedback loop, efforts to curb the growth of populism and limit democratic backsliding will require both addressing underlying grievances (i.e. demand) and weakening or substituting for the efficacy of existing populist rhetoric (i.e. supply)." Thanks to GeoQuant for sharing their data with us! #WhartonESG #politicalrisk #populism https://lnkd.in/eFMrqNPE

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Important perspective on how to respond to foreign propaganda from colleagues with deep experience across industry, government, and academia on how to approach foreign propaganda. TL/DR: don't exaggerate propaganda's potential impact; but don't dismiss it either; and recognize that the flow of ideas between foreign actors and the domestic fringe runs both ways (and is with both the left and right fringes in America). Kudos to Olga Belogolova, Lee Foster, Thomas Rid, and Gavin Wilde for an insightful piece. Doowan Lee, Ellen McCarthy, David Bray, PhD, Anna Horrigan.

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