The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine's southern Kherson region will have consequences not just for the environment, but also for the war raging in Ukraine.
There are also concerns about the fate of Europe's biggest nuclear power plant located about 100 miles upstream, although an atomic energy expert has told Newsweek that there is no immediate danger at the site.
Russia has been accused of "ecocide" by the office of Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky as images show water pouring through the broken barrier by the town of Nova Kakhovka.
The Russian-installed mayor of the town, Vladimir Leontyev, has blamed Kyiv for the dam's destruction.
Ukrainian authorities said people were at risk on the Kyiv-controlled right bank of the Dnieper River and that tens of thousands of people are being evacuated from the Kherson region, with water levels rising by 30 feet in some places within hours.
Flooding the area near the Dnieper River in the Kherson region could complicate plans for Ukraine's expected counteroffensive in the region. Ukraine accused Russia of mining the dam for this purpose in 2022. Tuesday's incident could also turn Kyiv's attention away from long-anticipated plans to push to retake territory captured by Russia.
"The destruction of the Kakhovka dam is a military action against the Ukrainian counteroffensive," said Dionis Cenusa, a risk analyst with the Eastern Europe Studies Centre, based in Lithuania.
"Russia seeks to provoke new crises and keep Ukraine busy with them in order to divert its attention and resources from a successful counter-offensive and evacuation," he told Newsweek.
Ukrainian interior affair's adviser Anton Gerashchenko was among those on social media who compared the strike to the move by Soviet forces in 1941 to blow the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station dam to slow down Nazi Germany's advance into Ukraine.
"In 2023, Kakhovka HPP was blown up by Russia in an attempt to hinder the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive," he tweeted, "it is the largest technogenic catastrophe in decades."
The Ukrainian energy company Ukrhydroenergo has said that the HPP is not recoverable.
The Ukrainian President's Office said that the dam's destruction and its aftermath threaten both Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP).
Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff for Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky, warned of the "possible loss of drinking water" for people in southern Kherson and Crimea as well as "possibly the destruction of some of the settlements and of the biosphere."
Ukraine's state nuclear power company, Energoatom, noted the impact the drop in water levels at the Kakhovka reservoir might have on the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which uses water from there as a coolant. However, the company said that the water level was sufficient to ensure the station's safety.
Mark Nelson, founder of the Radiant Energy Fund and an adviser on nuclear energy, told Newsweek that any drawdown of the cooling ponds would take place extremely slowly, giving plenty of time to stabilize the situation.
"This is a problem measured in months, with outcomes for the reactors ranging from nothing, to damage of reactor vessels and the loss of the plant," Nelson said.
"The containment domes will be sufficient to contain any damaged fuel if water levels go down and no water is able to be delivered to the plant over several month," he said
Nelson said that damage to the reactor vessels would prevent the timely restart of the plant after the war.
"The best thing would be to arrange for a supply of water to the plant in the case that water levels in Kakhovka reservoir go down extremely far and stay there and the grid is lost, preventing the use of pumps on site after diesel supplies are lost or used up," he said.
However, the plant is controlled by Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom, "so this will be up to the Russians unless they cede control," Nelson added.
About the writer
Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more