Running Head: CHOCOLATE SHORTAGE
Worldwide Chocolate Shortage: Hyperbole or Inevitability?
Kerry Nefferdorf
CIV
CHOCOLATE SHORTAGE
Worldwide Chocolate Shortage: Hyperbole or Inevitability?
In November of 2014, Mars Inc. and Barry Callebaut, two of the largest chocolate
manufacturers in the world, declared that by 2020, there could be a chocolate shortage of 1
million metric tons. Chocolate lovers around the world panicked, and bandied about ideas for
conserving chocolate; and ultimately most people forgot all about it. But is it something we
really need to worry about? The International Cocoa Organization, which forecasts supply and
production, says no.
Fluctuations in cocoa supply and demand are normal. Some years, less cocoa is produced
than consumed; while other years, more is produced. It is these surplus years that allow for the
deficit years to occur without any noticeable change at the consumer level. The alarming fact is
that we are currently in the midst of a streak of consecutive deficit years the longest stretch
since records started being kept 50 years ago. It has been 6 years since cocoa production
exceeded or equaled demand.
Consumption in Western Europe dwarfs that of Asia but it has remained steady.
Consumption in Asia, while only accounting for 12% of world cocoa consumption, has doubled
in the past decade. Considering that Asia contains half of the worlds population, this is a
worrying trend, especially when viewed in light of trends in cocoa production.
70% of the worlds cocoa is grown in West Africa, where aging trees and dry weather in
recent years have contributed to stagnating yields. In Ghana, the second most productive country
behind Ivory Coast, 30% of the trees are old and lower yielding, and new trees take 3-4 years to
become productive. Cacao is a very thirsty, labor-intensive crop, which stays in the land yearround and therefore does not allow for crop rotation. Farmers face such difficulties that many
are switching to other, more lucrative crops, such as rubber.
CHOCOLATE SHORTAGE
In Indonesia, cacao production is down 18% over the last 8 years. In 2009, a cloning
experiment that was meant to provide the nations farmers with 70 million fast-growing, diseaseresistant seedlings, failed. The trees died, fell over under their own weight, or produced small,
shriveled beans. The harvest saw a decline instead of the predicted growth, and many farmers
turned to cultivating palm oil instead. Indonesian processing plants used to grind only
Indonesian beans; now 45% of the beans they process come from Ivory Coast.
And things are looking up in West Africa. In November of 2013 (a year before Mars and
Callebaut rang the alarm bells), both Ghana and Ivory Coast experienced higher-than-average
rainfall (25% higher in Ghana, and double the average in Ivory Coast), which had a positive
affect on the harvest. 2014s crop was 10% larger than 2013s, and the largest in Ivory Coasts
history.
These gains are still not enough to keep up with increases in demand, however. In
addition to the growing Asian market, demand is increasing in Western markets as well. 40% of
new breakfast cereals launched in 2014 contained chocolate, and Lays introduced chocolatecovered potato chips. In addition, tastes in Western countries have shifted towards higher-quality
chocolate with a much higher cocoa content. The gold standard for quality chocolate is now
considered to be 70% cocoa solids compared to a Hershey bars 11%, its easy to see how
changing tastes contribute to increased demand.
Despite the failure of Indonesias program, the key to preventing a worldwide chocolate
shortage probably lies in research. In Trinidad and Tobago, where the cocoa crop was decimated
by disease in the 1800s, the Cocoa Research Centre houses 2,400 varieties of cacao and uses
maps of the cacao genome to identify markers for desirable traits. The current top-producing
variety, CCN-51, yields four times the industry average. However, like so many other
CHOCOLATE SHORTAGE
agricultural products bred for yield and shelf stability, the flavor is lacking. Fine flavor cacao
varieties are more delicate and produce lower yields. The goal of the Cocoa Research Centre,
therefore, is to identify and breed varieties that combine high yield and disease resistance with
desirable flavor.
In the end, it is unclear whether the deficits we are seeing are due to normal fluctuations, or
are the harbingers of doom that Mars and Callebaut would have us believe. It is possible that the
numbers predicted by the manufacturers are based on their own production goals rather than
actual forecasts. Michael Segal, spokesman for the International Cocoa Organization, insists that
the predictions of a 1 million metric ton shortage are overblown. As he told USA Today, "our
most recent predictions and forecasts are not showing anything of the kind." (Grisham, 2014)
CHOCOLATE SHORTAGE
5
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