Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Average Annual Temperature in Boise City, OK
14
Average Annual Temperature in Deg C
Annual Average Temperature Dec C
13.5
13
12.5
12
11.5
11
10.5
10
1900
Figure 1
5 Year Average Deg C
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
2020
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Temperature Anomaly Boise City, OK
Temperature anomoly from 1960-1980
1.5
Temperature anomoly
a 5 yr Average
Temperature anomoly
a 5 yr Average Trendline
0.5
y = 0.0199x - 39.254
R = 0.6424
-0.5
-1
1900
Figure 2
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
2020
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Average Annual Temperature in Amarillo, TX
17
16.5
Temperature in Deg C
16
15.5
15
14.5
14
13.5
13
Annual Average
12.5
12
1890
Figure 3
5 Year Average
1910
1930
1950
Year
1970
1990
2010
Dylan Jennings
1.2
Temperature Anomoly from 1951-1980
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Temperature Anomaly Amarillo, TX
Temperature Anomoly
a
y = 0.0233x - 46.33
R = 0.6856
a Trendline
Temperature Anomoly
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
Year
Figure 4
1980
2000
2020
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Annual Average Temperatures in Krasnoyarsk, Russia
4
Annual Temperature Average
Temperature in Deg C
5-Year Annual Temperature Average
2
-1
-2
1890
Figure 5
1910
1930
1950
Year
1970
1990
2010
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Temperature Anomaly in Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Temperature Anomoly from 1951-1980
a
Temperature Anomoly
1.5
Temperature Anomoly
a Trendline from 1965-Present
1
0.5
0
y = 0.0376x - 74.158
R = 0.5759
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1890
Figure 6
1910
1930
1950
Year
1970
1990
2010
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Global Average Temperature Anomalies
1
Annual Mean
Temperature Anomoly Deg C
0.8
5-year Mean
0.6
5-year Mean Trendline 1965-Present
0.4
0.2
0
y = 0.017x - 33.529
R = 0.9764
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
Year
Figure 7
1980
2000
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Part I Questions:
1) Make plots of the five year running mean annual temperature (not anomaly) your cities of choice; you can eliminate the marker
points and simply use lines. Please include both cities on one chart for temperature. Be sure to take the time to make charts that are
easy to read.
a. What is the hottest year on record in each of the sites and how hot was it in each city that year? (Because youre plotting
averages, you wont be able to get the temperatures directly off the chart (except for Boise City), but can use the chart to point you
to which row of data you should look at).
Boise City, OK:
Hottest year: 2012
Average temperature in 2012: 13.43 Deg C
Amarillo, TX:
Hottest year: 1934
Average temperature in 1934: 16.48 Deg C
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Krasnoyarsk, Russia:
Hottest year: 2007
Average temperature in 1900: 3.68 Deg C
b. What are the benefits and problems (pros and cons) of using running means?
The benefit of using means is there is less variance between data points, which leads to a more consistent graph. The
problem with using means is that outlier data points can skew the surrounding data.
2) Make a mean annual temperature anomaly plot for the three towns. This series should plot directly over the previous series (its
the same data!), but be a different color. Well use this for part 3 below.
a. Were the 1930s anomalously warm compared to the 1920s in both your locations?
Boise City, OK:
Yes the 1930s were unusually warm compared to the 1920s with average annual temperatures between 1 and 2 degrees C.
higher in the 30s than the 20s.
Amarillo, TX:
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
Yes the 1930s were unusually warm compared to the 1920s. Temperatures increased by about 1 degree C. in 1933, and
remained higher for several years to come.
Krasnoyarsk, Russia:
No the 1930s werent unusually warm compared to the 1920s in Krasnoyarsk. During the beginning and end of the 30s,
temperatures actually dipped lower than they had been in the 20s.
b. Compare the temperature anomalies since the 1950s (i.e., from 1960 and on) in both cities. Do you see any trends in the
data? Are they the same overall in each location?
The overall trend, shown by the trend lines, is that temperatures are overall increasing, and have been since at least 1965
where the trend lines start. Looking slightly more closely, in each city, temperatures increased and then fell during the 1960s, then
stayed at about the same temperature until about the 1980s-1990s. Since then, temperatures seem to be on an upward trend with
no stopping in sight.
c. What are the pros and cons of using temperature anomalies?
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
One benefit of using a temperature anomaly is that you can easily compare temperatures from different times with each
other. This could also be a disadvantage in that a time period must be selected as a control time, where the temperature anomaly
is based upon. This time period might not be a good control depending on what you want to compare the temperatures to.
Part II Questions:
a. Why do you think the period from 1951-1980 was chosen as the baseline for comparing temperature changes?
I think the period from 1951-1980 was chosen as the baseline for comparing temperature changes because global
temperatures measured at a fairly steady constant value. This constancy made that time period a good candidate for making a
control temperature.
b. Why is the range of the data (particularly the initial data) in terms of year-to-year variation so much more limited than that
for a given city, like Boise City, OK?
Temperatures on a global scale dont change as much as a localized place, so there is less fluctuation year to year in
temperature averages when taking global measurements. Also, for years where measurements are not recorded for each month,
the data points for that year may be slightly higher or lower than they should be. A larger sample size (global data) lowers the effects
of not having data for a specific place and month.
Dylan Jennings
UNST 125G
9 January 2016
c. Compare the global time series with the series for Boise City, OK. Are the trends over the last 50 years (1965 to present)
the same? Lets get specific with this question.
Based on Boise citys trendlines slope of 0.0199 and the global trendlines slope of 0.017, yes, their trends are similar. Both
indicate a (maybe not so!) slow but steady warming of the Earth. The slope represents the rate of increase (or decrease) in
temperature in deg C. per year.
