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Naïve Model Demand Forecasting

This document compares the forecasting accuracy of three different models: a naïve model, weighted moving average, and simple exponential smoothing. It provides the actual demand, forecast, forecast error, mean squared error, and percentage error for each period under each model. The weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing models had lower overall mean squared errors and percentage errors than the naïve model, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy over the naïve approach.

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Kristine Catarining
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80 views6 pages

Naïve Model Demand Forecasting

This document compares the forecasting accuracy of three different models: a naïve model, weighted moving average, and simple exponential smoothing. It provides the actual demand, forecast, forecast error, mean squared error, and percentage error for each period under each model. The weighted moving average and simple exponential smoothing models had lower overall mean squared errors and percentage errors than the naïve model, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy over the naïve approach.

Uploaded by

Kristine Catarining
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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NAÏVE MODEL

PERIOD A. DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR BS. FORECAST MSE PERCENTAGE ERROR


1 21 24.457
2 25 25.247
3 29 22.826
4 21 21.986
5 25 20.306
6 20 18.945
7 18 19.224
8 21 18.448
9 20 16.563
10 19 13.792
11 18 9.250
12 15 2.500
ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
PERIOD A. DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR BS. FORECAST MSE
1 21
2 25
3 29
4 21 26.33 -5.33 5.33 28.44
5 25 24.33 0.67 0.67 0.44
6 20 24.33 -4.33 4.33 18.78
7 18 21.83 -3.83 3.83 14.69
8 21 19.83 1.17 1.17 1.36
9 20 19.83 0.17 0.17 0.03
10 19 20.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00
11 18 19.67 -1.67 1.67 2.78
12 15 18.67 -3.67 3.67 13.44
16.67 80.97
PERCENTAGE ERROR Absolute Percentage Error

-0.25 0.25
0.03 0.03
-0.22 0.22
-0.21 0.21
0.06 0.06
0.01 0.01
-0.05 0.05
-0.09 0.09
-0.24 0.24
-0.98 0.98
PERIOD A.DEMAND FORECAST F.ERROR ABS.FORECAST MSE PERCENTAGE ERROR
1 35
2 37
3 38
4 40 37.17 2.83 2.83 8.03 7%
5 35 38.83 -3.83 3.83 14.69 -11%
6 32 37.17 -5.17 5.17 26.69 -16%
7 39 34.33 4.67 4.67 21.78 12%
8 42 36.00 6.00 6.00 36.00 14%
9 39 39.33 -0.33 0.33 0.11 -1%
10 36 40.00 -4.00 4.00 16.00 -11%
11 42 38.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 10%
12 39 39.50 -0.50 0.50 0.25 -1%
340.33 3.67 31.33 139.56 3%
ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR

7%
11%
16%
12%
14%
1%
11%
10%
1%
83%

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