Spencer Dale
Group chief economist
Three windows on the energy transition
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Billion toe
20 20 20 Renewables
Transport Other
Africa Hydro
Industry
Other Asia
Nuclear
Non-combusted India
15 15 15 Coal
Buildings China
OECD Gas
Oil
10 10 10
5 5 5
0 0 0
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Increase in primary energy demand
Increase in primary energy demand, 2017-2040
Billion toe
Income per Energy efficiency
30
head
25
World
20
population
15
10
0
2017
Primary energy demand Population GDP/capita Energy/GDP 2040
Primary energy demand
2017 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Three windows on the energy transition
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Billion toe
20 20 20 Renewables
Transport Other
Africa Hydro
Industry
Other Asia
Nuclear
Non-combusted India
15 15 15 Coal
Buildings China
OECD Gas
Oil
10 10 10
5 5 5
0 0 0
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Regional energy demand
Primary energy consumption Primary energy growth and regional
by region contributions
Billion toe % per annum
20 3.0%
Other
Other Asia 2.5%
Africa
15 India 2.0%
China
OECD 1.5%
10
1.0%
0.5%
5
0.0%
-0.5%
0
1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030-
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Three windows on the energy transition
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Billion toe
20 20 20 Renewables
Transport Other
Africa Hydro
Industry
Other Asia
Nuclear
Non-combusted India
15 15 15 Coal
Buildings China
OECD Gas
Oil
10 10 10
5 5 5
0 0 0
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Global energy by fuel type
Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy
Billion toe
20 50%
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear 40%
15
Coal
Gas 30%
Oil
10
20%
5
10%
0 0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Five key questions and uncertainties
How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?
What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?
How quickly could renewables grow?
A low carbon energy system – what more needs to be done?
Key issues for India’s energy outlook
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Human development and energy consumption
UN Human Development Index and energy consumption, 2017
HDI
1.0 Line of best fit
0.8
0.6
Sample of
countries
0.4
80% of
0.2 population
0.0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Gigajoules/head 2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Five key questions and uncertainties
How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?
What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?
How quickly could renewables grow?
A low carbon energy system – what more needs to be done?
Key issues for India’s energy outlook
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Less globalization scenario
Reduced openness and trade leads to slight reduction in trend global GDP
growth
Concerns about energy security adds a small risk premium (10%) to
imported energy
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Alternative scenario: Less globalization
Difference relative to ET scenario in 2040: Net exports (oil & gas)
Global GDP and energy
Mtoe
GDP Energy 0
1% ET
India
-200 Less
0%
globalization
-1% -400
-2% -600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
-3%
600
US
-4% 300
-5% 0
Renewables Coal
Gas Oil -300
-6%
Total -600
-7% -900
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Five key questions and uncertainties
How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?
What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?
How quickly could renewables grow?
A low carbon energy system – what more needs to be done?
Key issues for India’s energy outlook
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Renewable energy
Renewables share of power generation Fuel shares in power
30%
50% Gas
Geothermal
Coal
25% and biomass
Renewables
40% Hydro & Nuclear
Solar
20%
Wind 30%
15%
20%
10%
5% 10%
0% 0%
1995 2010 2025 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Speed of energy transition
Speed of penetration of new fuels in global energy system
Share of world energy
35%
Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2006)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Years from reaching 1% share
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Five key questions and uncertainties
How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?
What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?
How quickly could renewables grow?
A low carbon energy system – what more needs to be done?
Key issues for India’s energy outlook
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions CO2 in 2040: ET vs RT scenario
Gt of CO2 Gt of CO2
40 40
Evolving transition
Rapid transition 30
30
20
20
10
10
Power
ET 2040
RT 2040
Transport
Industry &
Buildings
0
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Global energy demand and fuel mix
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Billion toe
20
Renewables
16
Hydro
12 Nuclear
Coal
8
Gas
4 Oil
0
2017 Rapid transition Evolving transition
2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Five key questions and uncertainties
How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?
What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?
How quickly could renewables grow?
A low carbon energy system – what more needs to be done?
Key issues for India’s energy outlook
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Implications for India
Growth of GDP and primary energy Shares of primary energy
% per annum
8% 60%
Buildings Transport Industry
Other Renewables Coal
Gas Oil Oil Gas
6% 45%
Coal Nuclear
Hydro Renewables
4% 30%
2% 15%
0% 0%
GDP Primary energy GDP Primary energy 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
1990-2017 2017-2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Indian energy: supply and demand balance
Primary energy supply and demand growth Energy imports as a share of consumption
in the ET scenario: 2017-2040
Mtoe
1200 100%
Hydro Nuclear
Renewables Gas
1000
Oil Coal 80%
800
60%
600
400 40%
200
20%
0
-200 0%
Demand Supply 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Indian power sector: demand and fuel mix
Growth in Indian primary energy and India fuel shares in power
contributions to power generation
% per annum
90%
6%
Gas Coal Renewables Other
80%
5%
70%
4% 60%
Gas
50% Coal
3%
40% Renewables
2%
30%
1% 20%
0% 10%
Primary Power Primary Power 0%
energy energy 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
1995-2017 2017-2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Alternative scenarios for gas demand in India
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Alternative scenarios for gas demand in India
Evolving transition Stretch Blue Sky
Transport Cars < 10% Cars ~25% Cars ~ 50%
(share of NGVs Buses/trucks 10% Buses/trucks ~ 15% Buses/trucks ~ 30%
by 2040) 6 Mtoe in 2040 15 Mtoe in 2040 27 Mtoe in 2040
Buildings Share of gas doubling from 1/3 city population connected 1/2 city population connected
2% to 4% by 2040 to gas by 2040 to gas by 2040
10 Mtoe in 2040 16 Mtoe in 2040 25 Mtoe in 2040
Industry Share of gas rising from 3% Share of gas increasing to 10%; Share of gas increasing to 14%,
to 8% by 2040;
52 Mtoe in 2040 64 Mtoe in 2040 89 Mtoe in 2040
Share of gas in 8% 10% 12%
PE
Power: share of gas in generation slightly up from 5% to 6% by 2040, 50 Mtoe in 2040
Non-combusted: gas demand increases from 20 to 42 Mtoe 2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Gas demand could even grow faster
Mtoe
350 14%
Transport Buildings
300 Industry Non Combusted 12%
Power % PE
250 10%
200 8%
150 6%
100 4%
50 2%
0 0%
2017 Evolving transition Stretched Blue Sky
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Spencer Dale
Group chief economist
Demand and supply of oil
Mb/d
140
Evolving transition
More energy
120 Greater reform
Single-use plastics ban
100 Less globalization
Rapid transition
80 Supply with no investments in new fields
Trillions
60 of $s
40
20
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Hard-to-abate carbon emissions
CO2 emissions in RT scenario in 2040
Gt of CO2 Decarbonise power sector
20 • Renewables
• Gas (and coal) plus CCUS
• Energy storage and demand-side-response
16
Buildings
Other low-carbon energy sources and carriers
• Hydrogen
12 Industry
• Bioenergy
Transport
8 Efficiency
Power • Circular economy
• Process efficiency
4
Storage and removal of carbon
• CCUS
0 • Negative emission technologies, eg land carbon,
bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Global coal demand flatlines, with falls in China and OECD…
Coal demand by region Change in coal demand by region
Mtoe Mtoe
OECD China Increase in coal
4500 2000
India Other Asia demand (2017-2040)
Mtoe
4000 Other World 500
1500
Power
3500 400
Other
1000 300
3000
200
2500 500 100
2000 0
0
India Other
1500 Asia
-500
1000
-1000
500
0 -1500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1995-2017 2017-2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
