Key Factors That Will Dominate Chhattisgarh Assembly Election – Part I
A fascinating contest is on in Chhattisgarh, while Congress is aiming to cash in on
anti-incumbency and make a comeback, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping to
consolidate its position further. Elections are not won or lost on one factor but a
host of factors. This is first of the two-part series in which we will try to cover the
issues which are expected to dominate the state elections.
1. Social Engineering
Like most states in India, Chhattisgarh is not untouched by caste-based politics.
Nearly one third of the state’s population are Schedule Tribes (ST), while a further
12 per cent are Schedule Caste (SC). Other Backward Classes (OBCs) account for
41 per cent, upper caste per cent, Muslims 2 per cent and others 4 per cent.
Chhattisgarh has 90 assembly seats, of which 29 are reserved for STs and 10 for
SCs. The upper caste and OBCs have traditionally backed the BJP. While the ST
community vote is equally divided between the Congress and BJP, SC community
vote between Congress, BJP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). While Congress
won 18 out of 29 ST reserved seats in 2013, BJP swept the SC reserved seats
bagging nine out of 10 seats.
The entry of Ajit Jogi has complicated the matter as he has significant influence
over the Satnami Dalit community (stronghold of BJP) and tribals (stronghold of
Congress). All the parties are attempting to create the perfect caste combination in
each seat to sail them through. Strangely there is not much impact of the agitation
by swarnas in the state against the Centre’s amendment to the SC-ST Act. While
the forward caste doesn’t play a key role in determining who wins the elections
because of their small population, almost half of the cabinet positions are occupied
by them.
Caste wise break up (Source: CSDS Reports, www.politicalbaba.com)
2. Leadership Ratings
The BJP is hoping to encash the popularity of Chief Minister Raman Singh and his
popular schemes in the state assembly elections this time and top it up the
charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even in ABP-C Voter survey which
predicts a Congress win, Raman Singh leads the pack with 34 per cent
respondents wanting to see him as the next chief ministe, Ajit Jogi is ranked second
with 17 per cent. We have seen lately in state polls, party whose CM candidate
leads the popularity ratings, normally goes on to win the elections. The troublesome
part for Congress is that its leaders Bhupesh Baghel and T S Singh Deo are lagging
even per cent behind Ajit Jogi.
In India Today-Axis MyIndia Political Stock Exchange (PSE) too, Raman Singh is
way ahead of his rivals 41 per cent versus 21 of Baghel. Raman Singh factor
played a crucial role in 2014 Lok Sabha polls as well. Modi factor was least visible
in the state with only 10 per cent BJP supporters voting for the party because he
was the PM candidate, national average was 27 per cent. Is it still that strong, or
does he need significant pushing from Modi, remains to be seen. Modi leads the
popularity ratings with 59 per cent want to see him as next PM for another term
while 34 per cent support Rahul Gandhi for the top post.
Raman factor and Modi factor.
3. Mahagathbandhan
The elections in Chhattisgarh have always witnessed a nail-biting finish. The vote
share gap between BJP and Congress was a meagre 0.7 per cent in 2013. BSP
has a decent presence in the state with an average vote share of 5 per cent and 12
per cent support of SCs. It is for the precise reason that Congress is wooing
Mayawati’s BSP to forge an alliance in the state. If the BSP and Congress would
have contested together then the electoral fortunes would have been different in
2013, with the alliance winning by bagging 52 out of 90 seats.
Out of the 10 ST seats, BJP and alliance would have won five each. Mayawati’s
strength is her ability to transfer votes to the alliance partner. The talks have not yet
been finalised as Mayawati is demanding for a package deal in the three states
which go to polls at the end of the year and next year Lok Sabha polls. Jogi is also
eager to form an alliance with BSP. BSP is in hot demand in the state.
4. Factionalism In Both Parties
Elections in Chhattisgarh have traditionally been a two-horse race between the
Congress and BJP. Congress is divided into various factions and sub-factions in the
state. Bhupesh Baghel, T S Singh Deo and Charan Das Mahant are leading
prominent factions. Due to infighting the party has not declared a CM candidate
which could prove to be risky in a presidential elections format. Jogi leaving the
Congress and forming his own party was a result of long drawn battle in the party.
He remains the most popular Congress face still. Now that Rahul Gandhi has taken
up the leadership mantle he will lead the party in the polls through yatras and
rallies. In my opinion, his focus could be more on this state compared to Madhya
Pradesh and Rajasthan.
5. Communication Strategy Of Parties
It is widely acknowledged that while BJP has a sizeable and strong organisation in
the state, Congress is bereft of such cadre presence. Baghel and Singh Deo are
trying to revive the party structure at the block and at the mandal level. In line with
BJP’s panna pramukh, Congress is also creating its army of booth managers. Both
parties have created hundreds of WhatsApp groups to disseminate their political
communication. Raman Singh has started a state-wide Atal Vikas Yatra covering all
constituencies in a mass contact programme to seek votes for a fourth consecutive
term. BJP has laid down a plan for ‘Nava Chhattisgarh 2025’ and prepared an ‘Atal
Drishti Patra’.
The citizens of the state can provide their ideas and suggestions on the document
in what is seen as a participatory governance outreach by Raman Singh. The
Congress is countering this with in a unique way through T-shirts. The party has
printed and released more than 1 lakh t-shirts with the slogan 'Udd Gayi Vikas Ki
Chidiya' taking a jibe at the state BJP government.
What Are Opinion Polls Saying?
ABP-C Voter opinion poll predicts a Congress win with 54 out of 90 seats, while
India Today-Axis predicts a BJP win, 50 per cent respondents satisfied with the
performance of state government. Public prediction platform Crowdwisdom predicts
a hung assembly with BJP 42, Congress 41, Jogi Congress five and BSP 2 seats.
To sum up, a complex interplay of many factors will determine who wins this the
prestigious Chhattisgarh election.
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How a Party With Single Digit Vote Share Can Decide Chhattisgarh Poll Outcome
By Joining Hands With an Untested One
Mayawati's alliance with Ajit Jogi set political circles abuzz, but it seems the BJP
was happier with the development.
Raipur: BSP supremo Mayawati and Congress rebel Ajit Jogi are both known being
adventurous in their politics, but even then, no one expected them to strike a deal
for the upcoming assembly elections in Chhattisgarh.
The tie-up remained a hush-hush affair till the last minute as Mayawati wanted
neither the Congress nor the Samajwadi Party to get an inkling of what was in
store.
Jointly talking to the media from Lucknow, Mayawati and Jogi declared they have
formed an alliance for the year-end election to the 90-member Chhattisgarh
assembly. Object 1
While BSP will contest from 35 seats, Janata Congress would try its luck from the
rest of the underdeveloped state. Mayawati also announced that if the coalition
comes to power, Jogi would become the CM. The announcement set political
circles abuzz, but in Chattisgarh, it seems the BJP was happier with the
development than even the Janata Congress.
Before the announcement, the Congress was trying to build an alliance with the
BSP in Chhattisgarh as well as in Madhya Pradesh.
The alliance, then, is a double whammy for the grand old party as with it, Mayawati
has sent a clear signal that she won’t back down on her terms when it comes to
seat sharing, not in an assembly election and not in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
According to sources, the Congress was only ready to offer BSP five seats in the
state. The same day, Mayawati also unilaterally announced candidates to 22 seats
in Madhya Pradesh, in what is being seen as yet another negotiating tactic to
ensure she gets her fair share.
For Ajit Jogi, the alliance allows him to flex his flex muscle in a poll battle to tell the
Congress, as well as the BJP, not to take him lightly.
Forest Minister in Raman Singh’s cabinet, Mahesh Gagda, told News18, “This has
exposed the Congress and its tall claim of a united fight against the BJP”.
“So far, Congress was claiming to be the messiah of scheduled caste and
scheduled tribe voters. But after Mayawati and Ajit Jogi came together, the
Congress will face a stiff competition to attract SC votes and that will help the BJP,”
said Gagda, also a senior tribal leader from Bastar.
However, Congress said the alliance would only consolidate its position in helping
the party unseat the BJP.
State congress president Bhupesh Baghel said the grass root level party workers
were not in favour of any alliance with BSP. “This has also exposed Jogi also as he
always wanted to help his friend (Raman Singh),” he said.
AICC in charge of Chhattisgarh, Panna Lal Punia, also dismissed speculation that
the alliance will damage Congress prospects, saying “this will not at all affect the
prospect of the Congress in the coming assembly election”.
Congress insiders told News18 that the state unit was not inclined to have any
alliance with BSP as the gap with the BJP was less than 1 per cent in the 2013
assembly election and the party hopes to mount a more aggressive poll campaign
this time. “The anti-incumbency factor is also stronger,” a leader said.
BSP’s past record, however, shows that its vote share could have considerably
helped the Congress achieve its aim.
Chhattisgarh was carved out from MP on November 1, 2000, and in the first ever
state Assembly election of 2003, the BSP had contested from 54 seats and won
two. The party’s vote share was 4.45 per cent.
In the 2008 election, the BSP decided to contest all 90 seats and cornered 6.11 per
cent votes and sent two MLAs to the assembly. In 2013, BSP again contested from
all 90 seats but the percentage of votes was reduced to 4.27. In the current house
of 90 MLAs, BSP has a lone member.
But in a state where the contest has been always head-to-head and the margin of
victory was razor thin, this would have been enough to swing fortunes. Ajit Jogi’s
political party, on the other hand, is untested as it was formed only in 2016 after he
quit Congress.
Another interesting fact is that both Mayawati and Jogi claim to be the messiah of
scheduled castes.
Chhattisgarh has 10 seats reserved for SCs, out of which the BJP had won nine
last time and the Congress just one. So the alliance could also damage the BJP to
some extent.
Apart from this, 29 seats are reserved for tribals and the SC population is over 10
per cent in the other seats. But Jogi also holds some sway over the Muslim and
Christian population in over a dozen constituencies in the state. All this would help
eat into the Congress vote bank.
The Congress also blames its 15 years in the opposition on Ajit Jogi. He was made
the first CM of the state in 2000 by Sonia Gandhi despite not being the most
popular choice. Three years later, the BJP defeated the Congress and has been in
power since. The state unit blames Jogi’s three-year tenure for the defeat.
Jogi formed his own political party in an attempt to snatch away power from BJP by
whipping the sentiment of regional politics and was also trying to counter Congress
by bringing together all regional forces like BJD and TSR at the national level.
However, his latest venture to have an alliance with BSP is seen as an attempt to
play a role at the national stage.
