3rd Offset Strategy 101:
There’s been a lot of talk about a Third Offset Strategy at the Defense Department lately. It’s part
of Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s plan to make sure the U.S. military remains the world’s finest
fighting force.
The Third Offset Strategy has a number of parts to it, so at first glance, it may appear
complicated. Lucky for you, my job was to break down some of the more technical aspects into
layman’s terms.
The Sodium Guidestar at the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Starfire Optical Range resides on
a 6,240 foot hilltop at Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico. The Army and Navy are
developing their own laser weapons systems. Air Force photo
Basically, an offset strategy is part of a long-term competitive strategy; a peacetime competition
between rival defense establishments that aims to generate and sustain strategic advantage.
Offset strategies are not about formulating a general unified theory for armed conflict. They
instead aim to bolster and extend U.S. conventional deterrence against great powers able to
produce or acquire technologically advanced weapons systems.
It’s how we strengthen our military’s competitive edge. Offset strategies are not solely about
technological approaches, although all offset strategies have a powerful technological
component. They are about finding the right combination of technologies and operational and
organizational constructs to achieve decisive operational advantage and thus bolster conventional
deterrence.
It’s something we’ve done successfully twice before.
The First Offset began during the early 1950s at the start of the Cold War. The Soviet Union had
a geographical advantage over the U.S. in Western Europe, so we exploited our nuclear
superiority to overcome it, miniaturizing our nukes to about the size of a football. It was an
effective strategy until the Soviets caught up to us in the nuke game. That’s when we moved
into…
The Second Offset of the 1970s and ’80s, where we focused on conventional munitions with
near-zero miss, precision-guided weapons and the joint battle networks that employed them. The
key drivers to this strategy were information technologies and the digital microprocessor that
changed the game in terms of sensors and the weapons carried by our platforms.
A Grumman F-14A Tomcat from VF-14 prepares to launch from John F. Kennedy’s No. 2
catapult on Aug. 28, 1975, during the ship’s Mediterranean deployment. Navy photo by Mate 3d
Class T. Beitz
Since then, however, we’ve seen a reemergence of “great power” competition – particularly with
China and Russia. Simply put, both are catching up to us in military capabilities, and both are
investing heavily in Second Offset technologies, as well as cyber and electronic warfare that
could erode the enormous advantages we’ve enjoyed in conventional warfare.
“Any collision between two great powers is something we have worked for over 70 years to
avoid, but we’re in a period of dynamic competition, and we’ve got to address that,” said Deputy
Defense Secretary Bob Work during a recent discussion on the matter.
So it’s time for a Third Offset Strategy. As it has been in the past, technological and operational
innovation will be the key to it. Maintaining – and in select areas, extending – our competitive,
technological and operational advantages is not a purely quantitative contest vis-à-vis these
nations. Rather, the U.S. must seek asymmetric advantages that capitalize on its strengths and
exploit adversary weaknesses.
The Third Offset Strategy harnesses our intellectual activity in a way that transcends any
particular technological trend. But research points us in the direction of five common
technological-operational components:
Deep-Learning Systems
These machines would be used for indications and warnings in cyber defense, electronic warfare
attacks and large-density missile raids when human reactions just aren’t fast enough. They would
also be used for big-data analytics; for example, a deep-learning system might be able to analyze
90,000 Facebook post made by ISIL in one day, crunch that data and find patterns from it,
pulling out what might be of use.
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is also working on two programs, Adaptive
Radar Countermeasures and Behavioral Learning for Adaptive Electronic Warfare. They can, for
example, help EA-18G pilots whose equipment has sensed an unknown radar signal figure out
how to take care of it during the mission instead of having to bring that information back to its
base for analysis.
Human-Machine Collaboration
This teams up human insight with the tactical acuity of computers by allowing machines to help
humans make better, faster decisions. Pairing the two will combine the ability of humans to think
on the fly with the quick problem-solving methods of artificial intelligence.
Current examples of this are unmanned underwater vehicle systems and the Aegis weapon
system – a naval system that uses computers and radar to track and guide weapons to destroy
enemy targets.
There’s also the F-35 which, when fully developed, will be a flying sensor that can take in a huge
amount of data, analyze it and then display it on the pilot’s helmet, allowing him to make better
decisions.
“Our envisionment of our battle network is where the human will always be the one who makes
the final decision on lethal action, with the possible exception of some defensive capabilities,”
Work said.
Human-Machine Combat Teaming
While the above collaboration helps humans make better decisions, human-machine combat
teaming actually works with the unmanned systems to perform operations.
Two current examples of this are the Army’s Apache helicopter and Gray Eagle Unmanned
Aerial Vehicle, and the Navy’s P-8 aircraft and Triton UAV. Both are designed to operate
together.
There are also swarming UAV’s like the Perdix mini-drone, which has a 3D-printed airframe and
electronics made from cellphones. Only about a foot long, the Perdix can be launched from an
unmanned aircraft and fly in close proximity to several identical drones, communicating with
them to complete a mission.
Assisted Human Operations
These are pretty easy to understand: They’re wearable electronics, combat apps, heads-up
displays and even exoskeletons that can help warfighters in all possible contingencies.
At the Air Force Research Lab, they’re perfecting skin biosensors that look and feel like a
Bandaid, except they’re equipped to read all sorts of data, like your heart rate, hydration and
other vital signs.
Basically, assisted human operational components will be like that back-up sensor in your car
that beeps when you’re getting close to hitting something — it’s assisting you in driving the car.
A U.S. Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle unmanned aerial vehicle armed with Hellfire missiles prepares
to take off from Camp Taji, Iraq, Feb. 27, 2011. Army photo by 1st Lt. Jason Sweeney
Network-Enabled, Cyber-Hardened Weapons
This component is also pretty simple – it’s the prioritization of cyber-security.
Everything’s online today – we all know that – which means every weapon and system will have
to be prepared for cyber-attacks. For example, the DoD is modifying existing systems, like the
small-diameter bomb, to operate completely without GPS if an enemy is somehow able to deny
it service.
While the Second Offset Strategy had only one opponent – the Soviets – the Third Offset
Strategy will focus on the advanced capabilities that multiple opponents might eventually bear in
a high-end conflict. If we stay ahead of them in that game, it can give us an edge across all
military operations.
There’s a lot more to the Third Offset Strategy, of course, that will be discussed as we figure out
how to use the above systems and operate them together. But for now, just know that the
integration of human thinking and artificial intelligence is going to be the key to the Force of the
Future!
