6
Module
67
MATH
MAKING SIMPLE PREDICTIONS
A DepEd-BEAM Distance Learning Program supported by the Australian Agency for International Development
To the Learner
Hello my dear learners! How did you find your past lesson? Did
you get a high score? I hope you are now ready to learn a new
lesson. This time you will take up another lesson and it is about
“Probability”.
Let’s Learn This
This module deals with ‘making simple predictions’. The
exercises which you will go through will help you see how to predict
and count possible outcomes.
So, in this learning module, it is expected that you will be able
to:
Make simple predictions
Use diagram to count possible outcomes
Find possible outcomes.
Let’s Try This
A.
How good are you at predicting the future? Try these. Write C if
the events are certain to happen. Write I if you think it is impossible
to happen.
1. The sun will rise tomorrow. _______
2. It will snow in Mindanao on January 15. _______
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3. You will reach 250 years of age. ________
4. It will rain within this month. _______
5. It is raining today. ______
B.
The spinner has 8 equal parts. What is the probability of the
spinner stopping on each number?
6. 1 (a. 1/8 b. 2/8 c. 3/8 d. 4/8)
7. 2 (a. 3/8 b. 1/8 c. 0 d. 2/8)
8. 3 (a. 1/8 b. 2/8 c. 3/8 d. 4/8)
9. 4 (a. 4:8 b. 3:8 c. 2:8 d. 1:8)
10. 5 (a. 20% b. 40% c. 50% d. 60%)
Let’s Study This
A Probability tells how likely it is that on event will occur.
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Picking a card from the box is the event. Let us illustrate the
cards that are inside the box.
X X 1 2 3
A. What is the probability of picking a card with X mark?
There are two cards with an X mark and there 5 cards in all, so
the probability of getting a card with X mark is 2 to 5. It can be
expressed as a fraction or a percent.
Thus, the probability of 2:5 is also 2/5 or 0.4 or 40%.
B. What is the probability of picking a card with numbers?
There are 3 cards with numbers and there are 5 cards in all. So,
the probability of picking a number card is 3:5, which is equal to
3/5, 0.6 or 60%.
C. What is the probability of picking a card with number 4?
There is no card with number 4, so the probability of picking a
card with number 4 is 0.
Zero probability means that an event is impossible to happen.
Let us use a number line to show the probability of an event.
unlikely likely
0 ½ 1
Impossible 0.5 = 50% Certain
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We can see on the number line that if the probability is less
than ½, an event is unlikely to happen. If the probability is more
than ½ the event is likely to happen. A probability of 1 means that
the event will certainly happen and probability of 0 means the event
is impossible to happen.
The probability of ½ is what we commonly refer to as “50-50”
chance. This means that the event is equally likely and unlikely to
happen.
Let us look at another situation.
Ana has 2 blouses and 3 skirts. The blouses are 1 white and 1
yellow, and the skirts are 1 brown, 1 black and 1 green. What is the
probability that you will see Ana wearing a white blouse and green
skirt?
The favorable outcome in this situation is seeing Ana in a
combination of white blouse and green skirt.
A. What is the total possible outcome?
List all combination. We can have from 2 blouses and 3 skirts.
Make a diagram to help you analyze the lists.
Blouses Skirts Possible Outcomes
Brown White blouse, brown skirt
WHITE Black White blouse, black skirt
Green White blouse, green skirt
Brown Yellow blouse, brown skirt
YELLOW Black Yellow blouse, black skirt
Green Yellow blouse, green skirt
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If we multiply the number of blouses by the number of skirts,
we will get the total number of possible outcomes, hence 2 x 3 = 6.
There are 6 possible outcomes. Therefore, the probability of seeing
Ana in white blouse and green skirt is 1:6. The probability is less
than ½; therefore it is unlikely to happen.
Let’s Do This
Read and find the number of possible outcomes.
Rey, John and Niño are candidates for President on their class.
Peter and Luke are running for Vice-President. How many possible
outcomes are there for President and Vice-President?
A. Study the diagram and write the possible outcomes.
President Vice-President Possible Outcomes
Peter 1. __________________
Rey Luke 2. __________________
Peter 3. __________________
John Luke 4. __________________
Peter 5. __________________
Niño Luke 6. __________________
7. How many possible outcomes are these? __________________
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Let’s Do More
Read and analyze the situation.
A. If we toss a P5 and a P1 coins at the same time, how many
different outcomes are these? Look at the diagram below and
write the possible outcomes.
P 5 coin P 1 coin Possible Outcomes
H 1. __________________
H (Heads) T 2. __________________
T (Tails) H 3. __________________
H 4. __________________
5. How many possible outcomes are there? __________________
Let’s Remember This
Probability tells how likely it is that an event will
occur. It is expressed as a ratio, a fraction or percent of
favorable outcomes to the total number of possible
outcomes or
Number of favorable outcomes
Probability =
Total number of Possible Outcomes
Making a tree diagram can help solve some
problems easier.
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Let’s Test Ourselves
Read and write a diagram to find the number of possible
outcomes.
Bong’s FastFood serves two types of sandwiches: ham and
chicken. It also serves three beverages: milk, coffee and softdrinks.
If we are allowed to choose one sandwich and one beverage, how
many possible choices are there? 1.) ________ How many outcomes
are there if we include milk? 2.) ________
Sandwiches Beverages Possible Outcomes
Milk 3.) ___________________
HAM Coffee 4.) ___________________
Softdrinks 5.) ___________________
Milk 6.) ___________________
CHICKEN Coffee 7.) ___________________
Softdrinks 8.) ___________________
Let’s Consider This
Congratulations! If your score is 6-8, you can proceed to the
next module.
If you got only 4-5, answer the next exercise.
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If your score is 3 or below, review the whole module.
Let’s Enrich
Ourselves
Explain how the tree diagram below can be used to count the
different jackets available at the school store. List the outcomes
illustrated in the tree diagram.
Sizes Color Possible Outcomes
Gray 1.) ___________________
Small Red 2.) ___________________
White 3.) ___________________
Gray 4.) ___________________
Medium Red 5.) ___________________
White 6.) ___________________
Gray 7.) ___________________
Large Red 8.) ___________________
White 9.) ___________________
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Answer Key
Let’s Try This Let’s Test Ourselves
A. 1. 6 possible answers
1. C 2. 2 outcomes
2. I 3. ham, milk
3. I 4. ham, coffee
4. C 5. ham, softdrinks
5. Answer will depend upon 6. chicken, milk
the present weather condition, 7. chicken, coffee
if it is raining or not. 8. chicken, softdrinks
B.
6. b
7. c Let’s Enrich Ourselves
8. a
9. c A. Tree diagram can help find
10. d the possible outcomes
easier. Easy to pair the sizes
Let’s Do This and the colors of jackets.
1. Rey and Peter 1. small, gray
2. Rey and Luke 2. small, red
3. John and Peter 3. small, white
4. John and Luke 4. medium, gray
5. Niño and Peter 5. medium, red
6. Niño and Luke 6. medium, white
7. 6 possible answers 7. large, gray
8. large, red
Let’s Do More 9. large, white
1. HH
2. HT
3. TH
4. TT
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5. 4 possible answers
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