ANALYST
PRESENTATION
2nd MARCH, 2017
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements which may be identified by their
use of words like “plans,” “expects,” “will,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends,”
“projects,” “estimates” or other words of similar meaning. All statements that address
expectations or projections about the future, including, but not limited to, statements
about the strategy for growth, product development, market position, expenditures, and
financial results, are forward looking statements.
Forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of
future events. The companies referred to in this presentation cannot guarantee that
these assumptions and expectations are accurate or will be realized. The actual results,
performance or achievements, could thus differ materially from those projected in any
such forward-looking statements. These companies assume no responsibility to
publicly amend, modify or revise any forward looking statements, on the basis of any
subsequent developments, information or events, or otherwise.
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OUR FUNDAMENTAL BELIEFS
Shift in Industry Revenue
Revenue Transition from voice to data in 1-2 years
• Voice revenue to reduce from Rs 1.5 lakh cr to Rs 0.5 lakh cr
• Shift of Rs 1 lakh cr from voice will take data revenue to Rs 1.3 lakh cr
Overall Industry Revenue to grow to Rs 3 lakh cr by 2020-21
• Leading global consultants have forecasted demand for data at 500 -600 cr GB /
month. At yield of Rs 50/GB it translates to Rs 3.0 - 3.6 lakh cr / year
• Equivalent to 1.35 -1.6 % of projected GDP (still lesser than 2.5% in developed
economies)
• Government revenues likely to increase by 50%
Industry growth was low in last 5 years – next 5 years to see rapid growth with data
explosion
Mobile market to expand to Rs 3 lakh cr primarily from data 4
Elasticity of Demand
Industry is moving from voice to data
Voice is demand constrained
• Inelastic demand; limited by time availability
• No possibility of service differentiation
Data is supply constrained (demand will always outstrip supply)
• Very elastic demand
• Increase due to screen size, resolution, data speeds and time spent
• Consumption will increase; Constrained by budget only ARPU
growth
ARPU will grow because of shift from voice to data – revenue market
share will be driven by data capacity share 5
Industry will move to ARPU / User from ARPU / SIM
ARPU per SIM is a misnomer while assessing ability to pay
TRAI data indicates 1.13 bn SIMS in India
Data can be activated only on one SIM (unlike voice on dual SIM)
Particulars UOM Smartphone Users Feature Phone users
Devices in circulation Mn 263 496
Average SIM / User 1.19 1.28
ARPU per VLR SIM Rs. 277 134
Effective ARPU per user Rs 329 172
Source: TRAI, CMR data, Company estimates
1.13 bn SIMs will move to 0.8 bn SIMs with no voice arbitrage 6
Customers have ability to pay
Particulars Mobile Users
Subscribers in 2009 392 mn
ARPU in 2009 Rs 179
Equivalent ARPU in 2016 Rs 500
(adjusted for nominal per capita income)
Source: TRAI, RBI , World Bank
400 mn subscribers can afford to spend Rs 500 and above
on digital services 7
PRE JIO vs WITH JIO
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Data Explosion
Pre-Jio With-Jio
Total market
100 Cr
GBs/month
5-6 months
20 Cr
GBs/month
20 Cr
GBs/month
Jio has created world record for fastest 100 mn acquisition
Market expanded 6X with introduction of Jio in less
than 6 months 9
Jio Impact on India Ranking
CR GB/ month
100
63 71
47
20 18
SOURCE: Cisco VNI; OVUM; Strategy Analytics; TRAI; Company Analysis
India has become no 1 country for mobile data usage with Jio10
Jio First Mover for Customer Friendly Tariffs (1/2)
Before Jio After Jio
1. High base rate (Rs 4,000 – 20,000 1. Base rate = Rs 250/GB (pack rate at
per GB) which competition sells)
2. 16,000 plans to confuse customers 2. Simple structure
3. Roaming charges 3. All-India ONE ~ no roaming in India
4. Blackout 4. No Blackout / Unfair charges
5. VAS charges 5. No old-world VAS in digital world
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Jio First Mover for Customer Friendly Tariffs (2/2)
Before Jio After Jio
6. Pay for every service separately, 6. Only pay for one service (highest
including low-cost ones demand) – data
7. High data rates, causing data 7. Lowest data rates in the WORLD
anxiety and bill shocks with the BEST experience
8. Voice charged at equivalent of 8. Truly Free voice - Local, STD,
Rs 5,000 / GB, premium for local, Roaming, Off-net
STD, Roaming, Off-net
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Jio bringing the best to India
World’s largest all IP network
Highest VoLTE traffic of 200 cr mins/day (equals Vodafone India CS voice)
Filed 53 global patents
Created device ecosystem for 4G in India
India has become most active market for Google and Facebook (70 mn additions post
Jio)
Jio hits ~3.6 mn peak simultaneous video streams daily (v/s largest US operator who
had a peak of 1.7 mn simultaneous video streams during Super Bowl ‘17)
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Jio Applications
MyJio JioMoney JioChat JioSecurity JioNet Jio4GVoice JioNewsPaper JioCloud
Free up to 31 March 2018 for Jio Prime Customers
Jio has best suite of applications with the most comprehensive
library of content ensuring stickiness of customers 14
JIO
CONCERNS
V/S
PERFORMANCE
Concerns v/s Performance
Concerns Performance
There are very few • 124 mn LTE devices
devices for LTE • All new smartphones models are LTE enabled (8-9
mn /month)
• 2G/3G smartphones (165 mn) can enjoy 4G with
JioFi
• 4G smart feature phone is becoming a reality
Mobile Data demand is • Data explosion with commencement of Jio
limited services
• Average consumption of 10 GB/month across all
circles and urban/ rural
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Concerns v/s Performance
Concerns Performance
LTE cannot support • HD quality voice is only on Jio network
good voice quality • Jio network today carries 200 cr mins per day;
equivalent to large incumbent operators
• Jio has capacity to carry 100% of India’s voice
traffic
• On Jio network lowest call drop in Industry
• Deliberate attempt of incumbent operators caused
POI issues
Subscriber offtake • 7 subscribers per second over 170 days
would be slow • Activation within 15 minutes using eKYC
• Data adoption has been rapid
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Concerns v/s Performance
Concerns Performance
Quality of Customers • Handset price is proxy to ARPU
• Average price of handset on Jio network is >10k
(Industry has 10% >10k)
• Jio has 40% market share in devices >20k
Ubiquitous LTE • Jio population coverage of over 75%
coverage and high • 100% urban coverage
quality indoor coverage
• Plan for over 95% population coverage
not possible
• Only operator with pan-India sub-GHz LTE
spectrum
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MYTHS & HARD REALITY
Capacity = Spectrum x Towers
Capacity = Cells x Spectrum x SINR Factor x Backhaul Factor
• Jio 4.7x of entire Industry • Interference • Backhaul constraints
LTE MHz-cells (million) reduced by Jio’s due to Site
Jio* 13.46 unique real-time fiberisation
analytics and • Jio – 60%, Rest – 20%
Others 2.85 automation tools • Incremental backhaul
*includes Jio small cells under
implementation
• Better Signal is not only expensive
ensured- device but also time
support, single consuming and
sector cells, complex execution
indoor solutions • Jio has 3-4 years head
start
It is not arithmetic which determines capacity, it is a detailed science
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LTE device support all bands
Jio operates in Band 3 (1800 MHz), Band 5 (850 MHz) and Band 40 (2300
MHz)
Jio’s joint efforts with chipset, OEMs and brands helped in successfully
shifting the market from 80 models a year ago to more than 762 models
LTE device ecosystem in other bands is underdeveloped in India. Further,
poor global ecosystem across these bands is major barrier
4G device ecosystem beyond these three bands is underdeveloped
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Refarming 3G to 4G is easy
Due to increasing voice load and absence of VoLTE, incumbents need to
keep 3G on for voice traffic
Conventional antennas may need to be replaced since they don’t support
remote electrical tilt and MIMO (Multiple Input, Multiple Output)
Old 3G BTS cannot be upgraded to 4G. Even new 3G BTS would require
additional card and huge license cost for 4G upgrade
Even in most advanced countries, there is no shutdown of 3G yet
Refarming 3G to 4G is very costly and challenging
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STRONG ECONOMICS
Strong Economics
Superior spectral efficiency
No legacy systems
Lowest capex per unit capacity
Lowest operating cost per GB
Bulk of network is already built – can support more than 60% of forecasted
2020 - 21 India data demand
Jio anticipates EBITDA margin >50% on gross revenue
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SUMMARY
Summary
Voice revenues will shift to data. Data market in India will be Rs 3 lakh crore by 2020-21
400 mn subscribers can afford to spend minimum of Rs 500 on digital services
Jio caters to 85% of mobile data traffic in India today. Jio can support more than 60% of
forecasted 2020 - 21 India data demand
Jio is India’s only 5G ready network due to its elastic network and deep fiber
Well positioned to achieve more than 50% revenue market share
Jio anticipates EBITDA margin >50%
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THANK YOU
