BOLIVIA: PRODUCCION AGRICOLA DEL CAFE

REGRESION POLINOMICA
Produccion
Periodo Periodo Error
historica ( T. Pronostico Error
(Años) (Años) Absoluto
M.)
2000 1 17,559 17692.546 - 134 134
2001 2 17,837 17503.412 334 334
2002 3 17,274 17424.9318 - 151 151
2003 4 17,587 17433.28 154 154
2004 5 16,912 17498.3 - 586 586
2005 6 17,586 17593.308 - 7 7
2006 7 18,370 17701.873 668 668
2007 8 17,608 17821.5728 - 214 214
2008 9 18,017 17964.726 52 52
2009 10 18,505 18156.1 349 349
2010 11 17,673 18427.595 - 755 755
2011 12 18,373 18809.904 - 437 437
2012 13 20,041 19321.1488 720 720
2013 14 19,890 19952.492 - 62 62
2014 15 20,496 20650.725 - 155 155
2015 16 20,954 21297.832 - 344 344
2016 17 21,427 21687.53 - 261 261
2017 18 21,181 21498.7848 - 318 318
ME (ERROR M 2018 19 - 64
MAE 317
PRONOSTICOMPE 20266.303
MAPE
MSPE

Produccion historica ( T. M.)

25,000

f(x) = - 0.0042081707x^6 + 0.1698580752x^5 - 2.2242940434x^4 + 8.6985928326x^3 + 44.715559174x^2 - 355.8141954092x + 17996.6440422326

20,000
R² = 0.9345392521

15,000

10,000

5,000

-
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
OLA DEL CAFE n= 3
EGRESION POLINOMICA MEDIA MOVIL
Error Error
Error Error^2 Error Error
Porcentual Pronostico Error Porcentual
porcentual Absoluto (varianza) Absoluto porcentual Absoluto

-0.76% 0.76% 17,835 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

1.87% 1.87% 111,281 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
-0.87% 0.87% 22,780 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
0.87% 0.87% 23,630 17,557 30 30 0.2% 0.2%
-3.47% 3.47% 343,748 17,566 - 654 654 -3.9% 3.9%
-0.04% 0.04% 53 17,258 328 328 1.9% 1.9%
3.64% 3.64% 446,394 17,362 1,008 1008 5.5% 5.5%
-1.21% 1.21% 45,613 17,623 - 15 15 -0.1% 0.1%
0.29% 0.29% 2,733 17,855 162 162 0.9% 0.9%
1.89% 1.89% 121,731 17,998 507 507 2.7% 2.7%
-4.27% 4.27% 569,414 18,043 - 370 370 -2.1% 2.1%
-2.38% 2.38% 190,885 18,065 308 308 1.7% 1.7%
3.59% 3.59% 518,186 18,184 1,857 1857 9.3% 9.3%
-0.31% 0.31% 3,905 18,696 1,194 1194 6.0% 6.0%
-0.75% 0.75% 23,940 19,435 1,061 1061 5.2% 5.2%
-1.64% 1.64% 118,220 20,142 812 812 3.9% 3.9%
-1.22% 1.22% 67,876 20,447 980 980 4.6% 4.6%
-1.50% 1.50% 100,987 20,959 222 222 1.0% 1.0%
413
528
-0.35% 21,187 2.0%
1.70% 2.7%
151,623
 Alfa 0.5
SUAVISAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
Error
Error^2 Error Error Error^2
Pronostico Error Porcentual
(varianza) Absoluto porcentual Absoluto (varianza)

0 17,559 - 0 0.0% 0.0% -

0 17,559 278 278 1.6% 1.6% 77,284
0 17,698 - 424 424 -2.5% 2.5% 179,776
920 17,486 101 101 0.6% 0.6% 10,201
427716 17,537 - 625 625 -3.7% 3.7% 390,000
107803 17,224 362 362 2.1% 2.1% 130,863
1016736 17,405 965 965 5.3% 5.3% 930,984
215 17,888 - 280 280 -1.6% 1.6% 78,155
26352 17,748 269 269 1.5% 1.5% 72,479
256711 17,882 623 623 3.4% 3.4% 387,642
137147 18,194 - 521 521 -2.9% 2.9% 271,124
94864 17,933 440 440 2.4% 2.4% 193,294
3449687 18,153 1,888 1888 9.4% 9.4% ###
1426432 19,097 793 793 4.0% 4.0% 628,711
1126428 19,494 1,002 1002 4.9% 4.9% ###
658803 19,995 959 959 4.6% 4.6% 920,119
961053 20,474 953 953 4.4% 4.4% 907,474
49284 20,951 230 230 1.1% 1.1% 53,041
390
595.067142
21,066 1.9%
3.1%
541120 544,442
 BOLIVIA: PRODUCCION AGRICOLA DEL BANANO
REGRESION POLINOMICA
Produccion
Periodo Periodo Error
historica ( T. Pronostico Error
(Años) (Años) Absoluto
M.)
2000 1 129,331 125962.366 3,369 3369
2001 2 129,868 137146.344 - 7,278 7278
2002 3 136,389 136534.191 - 145 145
2003 4 134,952 131290.77 3,661 3661
2004 5 129,888 126761.625 3,126 3126
2005 6 131,086 126546.997 4,539 4539
2006 7 126,359 132622.781 - 6,264 6264
2007 8 150,746 145508.434 5,238 5238
2008 9 148,221 164481.819 - 16,261 16261
2009 10 186,442 187841 - 1,399 1399
2010 11 215,523 213212.978 2,310 2310
2011 12 264,327 237909.368 26,418 26418
2012 13 257,104 259329.027 - 2,225 2225
2013 14 256,352 275407.618 - 19,056 19056
2014 15 283,310 285114.125 - 1,804 1804
2015 16 292,221 288994.309 3,227 3227
2016 17 299,580 289761.105 9,819 9819
2017 18 289,636 292931.97 - 3,296 3296
ME (ERROR M 2018 19 221
MAE 6635
PRONOSTICOMPE 307513.167
MAPE
MSPE

Produccion historica ( T. M.)

350,000

300,000
f(x) = 0.0652301821x^6 - 0.7524307856x^5 - 73.6467169058x^4 + 1956.7042435325x^3 - 15748.6107394389x^2 + 45857.6626611382x + 93970.5488938955
R² = 0.980281493
250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
COLA DEL BANANO n= 3
REGRESION POLINOMICA MEDIA MOVIL
Error Error
Error Error^2 Error Error
Porcentual Pronostico Error Porcentual
porcentual Absoluto (varianza) Absoluto porcentual Absoluto

2.60% 2.60% 11,347,696 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

-5.60% 5.60% 52,974,291 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
-0.11% 0.11% 21,080 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
2.71% 2.71% 13,404,608 131,863 3,089 3089 2.3% 2.3%
2.41% 2.41% 9,774,221 133,736 - 3,848 3848 -3.0% 3.0%
3.46% 3.46% 20,602,550 133,743 - 2,657 2657 -2.0% 2.0%
-4.96% 4.96% 39,234,952 131,975 - 5,616 5616 -4.4% 4.4%
3.47% 3.47% 27,432,102 129,111 21,635 21635 14.4% 14.4%
-10.97% 10.97% 264,414,222 136,064 12,157 12157 8.2% 8.2%
-0.75% 0.75% 1,957,201 141,775 44,667 44667 24.0% 24.0%
1.07% 1.07% 5,336,203 161,803 53,720 53720 24.9% 24.9%
9.99% 9.99% 697,891,280 183,395 80,932 80932 30.6% 30.6%
-0.87% 0.87% 4,950,743 222,097 35,007 35007 13.6% 13.6%
-7.43% 7.43% 363,116,562 245,651 10,701 10701 4.2% 4.2%
-0.64% 0.64% 3,254,867 259,261 24,049 24049 8.5% 8.5%
1.10% 1.10% 10,411,536 265,589 26,632 26632 9.1% 9.1%
3.28% 3.28% 96,410,699 277,294 22,286 22286 7.4% 7.4%
-1.14% 1.14% 10,863,416 291,704 - 2,068 2068 -0.7% 0.7%
17,816
19392
-0.13% 293,812 7.6%
3.48% 8.7%
90,744,346
 Alfa 0.5
SUAVISAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
Error
Error^2 Error Error
Pronostico Error porcentual Absoluto Error^2 (varianza)
Porcentual
(varianza) Absoluto

0 129,331 - 0 0.0% 0.0% -

0 129,331 537 537 0.4% 0.4% 288,369
0 129,600 6,790 6790 5.0% 5.0% 46,097,310
9543980 132,994 1,958 1958 1.5% 1.5% 3,832,785
14809669 133,973 - 4,085 4085 -3.1% 3.1% 16,688,246
7059649 131,931 - 845 845 -0.6% 0.6% 713,286
31543200 131,508 - 5,149 5149 -4.1% 4.1% 26,515,097
468073225 128,934 21,812 21812 14.5% 14.5% 475,779,022
147800754 139,840 8,381 8381 5.7% 5.7% 70,244,173
1995111111 144,030 42,412 42412 22.7% 22.7% 1,798,742,953
2885838400 165,236 50,287 50287 23.3% 23.3% 2,528,761,744
6549934669 190,380 73,947 73947 28.0% 28.0% 5,468,217,591
1225466711 227,353 29,751 29751 11.6% 11.6% 885,104,075
114504267 242,229 14,123 14123 5.5% 5.5% 199,468,997
578354401 249,290 34,020 34020 12.0% 12.0% 1,157,338,266
709281179 266,300 25,921 25921 8.9% 8.9% 671,889,808
496650939 279,261 20,319 20319 6.8% 6.8% 412,878,775
4275245 289,420 216 216 0.1% 0.1% 46,531
17,800
18919.5682
289,528 7.7%
8.5%
846569300 764,589,279
 BOLIVIA: PRODUCCION AGRICOLA DEL CACAO
REGRESION POLINOMICA
Produccion
Periodo Periodo Error
historica ( T. Pronostico Error
(Años) (Años) Absoluto
M.)
2000 1 3,761 3752.5332 8 8
2001 2 3,620 3665.7992 - 46 46
2002 3 3,716 3692.4702 24 24
2003 4 3,953 3794.5224 158 158
2004 5 3,785 3941.6 - 157 157
2005 6 3,933 4112.2152 - 179 179
2006 7 4,491 4294.0842 197 197
2007 8 4,406 4483.5992 - 78 78
2008 9 4,956 4684.4364 272 272
2009 10 4,721 4905.3 - 184 184
2010 11 4,804 5156.8022 - 353 353
2011 12 5,427 5447.4792 - 20 20
2012 13 5,698 5778.9432 - 81 81
2013 14 5,970 6140.1704 - 170 170
2014 15 5,971 6500.925 - 530 530
2015 16 6,065 6804.3192 - 739 739
2016 17 6,143 6958.5092 - 816 816
2017 18 5,518 6827.5272 - 1,310 1310
ME (ERROR M 2018 19 - 222
MAE 296
PRONOSTICOMPE 6221.2494
MAPE
MSPE

Produccion historica ( T. M.)

7,000

6,000
f(x) = - 0.0012371593x^6 + 0.0351853494x^5 - 0.0404528312x^4 - 7.8003048337x^3 + 101.7060083581x^2 - 337.6705462708x + 3996.2731271994
R² = 0.9733818015
5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
OLA DEL CACAO n= 3
REGRESION POLINOMICA MEDIA MOVIL
Error Error
Error Error^2 Error Error
Porcentual Pronostico Error Porcentual
porcentual Absoluto (varianza) Absoluto porcentual Absoluto

0.23% 0.23% 72 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%

-1.27% 1.27% 2,098 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
0.63% 0.63% 554 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0%
4.01% 4.01% 25,115 3,699 254 254 6.4% 6.4%
-4.14% 4.14% 24,524 3,763 22 22 0.6% 0.6%
-4.56% 4.56% 32,118 3,818 115 115 2.9% 2.9%
4.38% 4.38% 38,776 3,890 601 601 13.4% 13.4%
-1.76% 1.76% 6,022 4,070 336 336 7.6% 7.6%
5.48% 5.48% 73,747 4,277 679 679 13.7% 13.7%
-3.90% 3.90% 33,966 4,618 103 103 2.2% 2.2%
-7.34% 7.34% 124,469 4,694 110 110 2.3% 2.3%
-0.38% 0.38% 419 4,827 600 600 11.1% 11.1%
-1.42% 1.42% 6,552 4,984 714 714 12.5% 12.5%
-2.85% 2.85% 28,958 5,310 660 660 11.1% 11.1%
-8.87% 8.87% 280,821 5,698 273 273 4.6% 4.6%
-12.19% 12.19% 546,593 5,880 185 185 3.1% 3.1%
-13.28% 13.28% 665,055 6,002 141 141 2.3% 2.3%
-23.73% 23.73% 1,714,861 6,060 - 542 542 -9.8% 9.8%
236
296
-3.94% 5,909 4.7%
5.58% 5.7%
200,262
 Alfa 0.5
SUAVISAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
Error
Error^2 Error Error Error^2
Pronostico Error Porcentual
(varianza) Absoluto porcentual Absoluto (varianza)

0 3,761 - 0 0.0% 0.0% -

0 3,761 - 141 141 -3.9% 3.9% 19,881
0 3,691 26 26 0.7% 0.7% 650
64516 3,703 250 250 6.3% 6.3% 62,375
484 3,828 - 43 43 -1.1% 1.1% 1,860
13225 3,807 126 126 3.2% 3.2% 15,986
360800 3,870 621 621 13.8% 13.8% 385,913
113120 4,180 226 226 5.1% 5.1% 50,900
461494 4,293 663 663 13.4% 13.4% 439,310
10678 4,625 96 96 2.0% 2.0% 9,293
12027 4,673 131 131 2.7% 2.7% 17,214
360000 4,738 689 689 12.7% 12.7% 474,171
509796 5,083 615 615 10.8% 10.8% 378,594
436040 5,390 580 580 9.7% 9.7% 335,994
74347 5,680 291 291 4.9% 4.9% 84,579
34348 5,826 239 239 3.9% 3.9% 57,318
19881 5,945 198 198 3.2% 3.2% 39,088
293403 6,044 - 526 526 -9.5% 9.5% 276,831
224
303.3717
5,781 4.3%
6.0%
153564 147,220