Coastal Storm for Wed into Wed Night
Decision Support Briefing #2 Current Hazards
As of: 530 AM Oct 16, 2019
What Has Changed?
Wind Advisory issued for eastern Suffolk
County and Southern New London County
starting at 10PM tonight through Thursday.
Coastal Flood Statement was issued for
Southern Queens and Southern Nassau
from 9AM this morning to noon.
Coastal Flood Statement was issued for
Southern Fairfield and Southern
Westchester from noon today to 3PM this
afternoon.
Coastal Flood Advisories for tonight now
include Southern Queens, Southern
Nassau and all of Suffolk.
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Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
• 2 to 3 inches rain, locally
higher.
• Flash flooding along quick Highest Threat across
Flash This afternoon into
responding small streams and NE NJ
Flooding creeks possible. tonight
• Minor flooding of urban areas
and low-lying roads.
• Minor coastal flooding. Widespread minor coastal
Coastal • Inundation of 1 to 2 ft above flooding, SW CT, S Westchester,
ground in vulnerable coastal S. Queens, S. Nassau and Suffolk. During the times of
Impacts areas. Localized minor coastal flooding high tide tonight
• Minor dune erosion possible for SE CT, Northern Nassau,
along Atlantic ocean beachfront. Hudson NJ, much of NYC.
• 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to
50 mph. Entire Tri-State Region.
Strong Strongest winds will be Late tonight into
• Scattered power outages. Thursday
Winds • Several downed trees and across southeastern CT
power lines. and eastern Long Island
• Gale conditions.
• Seas of 7 to 11 ft on the Late tonight into
Marine Ocean, and 4 to 7 ft on LI Nearshore Waters Thursday Night
Sound.
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Summary of Greatest Impacts
Flash Flooding: Entire Tri-State Region
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Coastal Impacts: SW Coastal CT, S Westchester,
S Queens, S Nassau, Suffolk
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Strong Winds: Entire Tri-State Region
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Marine: Nearshore Waters
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
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Heavy Rain
Flash Flood Watch… 4 pm today until 4 am Thu
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Heavy Rain
Hazards:
Rainfall of 2 to 3 inches across the Tri-State
region. Locally higher amounts possible
Rainfall rates of up to 1/2“/hr
Impacts:
Flash Flooding along quick responding
Small Streams and Creeks possible.
Widespread Minor Flooding of Urban Areas
and Low-lying Roads.
Heavy rain during the times of high tide
between 10pm and 2am would increase
flash flood threat for coastal roadways.
Timing:
Heaviest rain from 6 PM to 11 PM tonight.
Uncertainty:
Location of heaviest rainfall.
These will be fine tuned as the event
unfolds.
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Strong Winds
Hazards:
Southeast winds becoming
Northwest of 20 to 30 mph with
gusts 40 to 50 mph, highest
across coastal SE Connecticut
and eastern Long Island.
Impacts:
Peak Wind Gust Image Scattered downed trees and tree
limbs
Scattered power outages
Dangerous travel conditions for
high profile vehicles
Timing:
Strongest winds late tonight
through Thursday
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Wind Related Hazards
Wind Advisory … from 10 PM tonight till 6 PM Thursday
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Coastal Flooding
Marine / Coastal Hazards Coastal Flood Hazards and Impacts:
Widespread minor coastal flooding (inundation of 1
to 2 ft Above Ground Level) in vulnerable coastal
locales of SW Coastal CT, S Westchester, S
Queens, S Nassau, Suffolk.
Localized minor coastal flooding (inundation of 1 ft
or less Above Ground Level) for vulnerable coastal
locales of Northern Nassau, much of NYC, Hudson
NJ, SE CT.
Several waterfront road closures.
Shoreline Hazards and Impacts:
6-8’ breaking waves along the oceanfront, 3 to 4’
along LI sound shoreline.
Beach flooding and minor dune erosion possible
along CT shoreline and Atlantic ocean beachfront.
Timing:
During times of high tide tonight.
Please go to the NWS New York, NY Coastal Flooding Page
Uncertainty:
for the latest coastal flood forecast and the tools to If heavy rain coincides with the times of high tide,
visualize the coastal impacts. flooding could be exacerbated on coastal roadways.
https://www.weather.gov/okx/coastalflood Timing of wind shift from the E-SE to W-NW will be
a critical factor in water levels.
These details will be fine tuned as the event unfolds.
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Event Summary
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts.
Flash Flood Watch in Effect for NE NJ late this afternoon through late
tonight.
West winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph late tonight into
Thursday.
Wind Advisory for Southern New London and Eastern Suffolk County
late tonight through Thursday.
Widespread minor coastal flooding for SW Coastal CT, S Westchester, S
Queens, S Nassau, Suffolk tonight. Localized minor coastal flooding for
Northern Nassau, much of NYC, Hudson NJ, SE CT tonight.
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