Peran Geothermal dalam

Kebijakan Energi Nasional

Current Challenges, Commitment and
PLN’s Long-term Vision

Petroleum Incorporated Fair 2019, FTKE Universitas Trisakti

Yudistian Yunis
Director of PT PLN Gas & Geothermal
 Proses Produksi Listrik dan Tariff

Fluktuasi Energi Primer

dan Nilai Tukar IDR

Komparasi tarif listrik regional

Tariff Listrik (TDL)

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Portofolio PT PLN (Persero)
100 %

99,99%

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PLN Gas & Geothermal’s Role (PLN Subsidiary)
Gas
1 2 3 4
Gas Supply Procurement LNG Receiving, Reloading and
LNG Storage Gas Transportation
and Management Regasification

Point to Gas Gas Pipe Gas

LNG Vessel/ LNG LNG Storage Storage
Supply LNG Portfolio LNG Point LNG Small Storage Transportatio Handling Transportati
Shipping/ Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure Facilities
Planning Management Procurement LNG Scale* Handling n Facilities and Gas on Facility
Trucking Development O&M Development O&M
Shipping Development Logistic O&M

PLN GG
PLN PLN GG PLN GG
Third Party
PLN GG as an owner
Geothermal
1 2 3 4
Exploration of Development of geothermal steam Sales of
Concession Acquisition
geothermal steam generation Electricity

Dev. And O&M of

Participation Geology and Dev. And O&M of Sales of power
Concession Partner Permit & Drilling and Cons of steam Sales of heat
in tendering Geophysics Make-up well Cons of Geothermal &
selection Selection Access exploration steam prod. generation Diversification to industrial
for concession studies power plants PP
facilities facilities

PLN PLN + PLN GG PLN GG PLN GG N/A

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Wilayah Kerja Panasbumi PLN

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www.pln.co.id |
 Program Pemerintah terhadap rencana Bauran Energy
Bauran Energy (Energy Mix)
MTOE, 2011 – 2050F Trend in usage of energy sources
165 380 980
100% 4%

23%
New and Supporting the usage of new and renewable energy,
20% 31% Renewable especially hydro and geothermal, in the long run
Energy (2025 onwards)

22%
26% Supporting the usage of gas as the main energy
24% Gas source in the short run (particularly in the 35 GW
Program)

30%
25% Coal Supporting the decline in usage of coal and oil –
50% according to the Indonesian Government’s
aspirations to realize environmental sustainability
25%
20% Oil

2011 2025F 2050F

Supporting growth in usage Supporting decline in usage

Source: Asian Development Bank Energy White Paper, Rencana Induk Konservasi Energi (‘RIKEN’), Renstra Ditjen EBTKE 2015-2019, Strategy& Analysis

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Komitmen Pengembangan Panasbumi PLN

UU No. 30/ 2007 Geothermal plays significant role in green house UU No. 21/ 2014
Tentang Energi Tentang Pabum
gas reduction especially for Indonesia.

Kebijakan Energi
COP 21 Paris
7,2 GW PP No. 7/ 2017
Nasional (KEN)
of Geothermal
Others RE
1% Permen ESDM
RUEN RUKN
37/2018
Geoth
12%

Hydro Pre-Transaction
RUPTL 10% Agreement

Gas 2025 Coal

9% 54% Price Matrix

LNG
13% Oil Power Purchase
1% Agreement

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Renewables Additional Capacity
(RUPTL 2019-2028)

Geothermal will triple the capacity within next 10 years, from about 1.9 Biomass Ocean
GW to 6.5 GW in 2028. Thus, stakeholders‘ support and contribution is Wind
5% 0.04 %
of great importance to achieve the target. 5%
Solar
6% Geothermal
27 %
Minihydro
Generation 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Sum 9%
Geothermal
Hydro
190
154
151
326
147
755
455
-
245
182
415 2,759
1,484 3,047
45
129
145
466
55 4,607
1,467 8,010
16,76
Minihydro
Solar
140
63
238
78
479
219
200
109
168
250
232
4
27
250
20
-
20
2
10
2
1,534
978
GW
Wind - - 30 380 220 50 150 - - 5 835 Hydro
Biomass 12 139 60 357 50 103 19 5 15 35 794 48 %
Ocean - - 7 - - - - - - - 7
Sum 559 932 1,697 1,501 1,114 2,287 6,251 199 648 1,574 16,765

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7 Geothermal Development Challenges
less influence more

Financing Land Acquisition Social Technical

• Bankability • Process & timely • Tradition • Exploration risk

• Payment methods • Rent/ buy • Paradigm • Grid non-availability
• Equity limitation • Non-Governmental • Force majeure
Organization • Unsufficient electric
demand

• Time extension
• Tariff adjustment
• PPA amendment

• AMDAL • Tariff Gap • Forestry land use permit

• UKL/UPL • BOOT scheme • Spatial and Regional Planning
• Social issue correlated • Party change (RTRW)

Legal/
Environmental Regulation/ PPA Permitting

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 Composition of PLTP Based on Development (2019)
Operation
30 % Unallocated
Geothermal PP Status PLN + IPP (Scattered)
24 %

1959.5 MW
Operasi
Operation PLN: 572,5 MW
IPP : 1342 MW Construction
4%
Study,
96 MW Financing,
Konstruksi
Construction PLN: 0 MW Tender
IPP : 276 MW 10 %
Drliling
Exploration 3G Exploration
717 MW 11 % 21 %
Eksplorasi Pengeboran
Exploration Drilling PLN: 240 MW
IPP : 477 MW
From the start of the construction of the geothermal power plant to 2028, the
capacity of the operating geothermal power plant is expected to increase from
1364 MW
3G Exploration
Eksplorasi 3G PLN: 305 MW 1,914.5 MW to 6,521.5 MW
IPP : 1059 MW

The RUPTL target for 2019 - 2028 is 4,607 MW.

675 MW
Study, Financing,
Studi, and
Pendanaan, Tender
Pengadaan PLN: 85 MW Current status (for RUPTL 2019 - 2028): Sorik Merapi 45 MW
IPP : 590 MW
• Operation 180 MW Muara Laboh 80 MW
• Construction 96 MW Lumut Balai 55 MW
1575 MW
Unallocated (Scattered)
Belum PPA (PLTP Tersebar) PLN: 0 MW • Exploration drilling 717 MW
IPP : 1575 MW
• Exploration 3G 1,364 MW
• Study, financing, tender 675 MW
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
• Unallocated (scattered) 1,575 MW

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Tariff vs Project Economics
Objective : Tariff should meet system economics (BPP), if not Governmental instrument will be
required to compensate the BPP increase

System Economics Project Economics

• Economic of a local power system • Economic of a specific geothermal

• Measured by a term called BPP (Power project (concession)
Production Cost) • Defined by proper IRR on equity /
project IRR

both are contradictively dependent to tariff

a trade-off between system and project economics

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 Key Parameters and Assumptions
Parameter input Output

Area (km2) Teknologi

pembangkitan

Ketebalan (m)
Kapasitas Jumlah unit dan Agreed Financial
CAPEX Tarif PPA
reservoir (MW) kapasitas PLTP model
Temp. (°C)

Jumlah sumur
Porosity produksi dan
injeksi • Type of cashflow (equity / project IRR)
• Cost input method (actual minus inefficiency
/ actual cost)
• Payback period
Kapasitas Kapasitas • Cost of debt (interest rate)
Laju alir uap Laju alir brine • Debt to equity ratio
produksi injeksi

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Tariff Gap: Project >< System Economics

Instruments to fill the Gap:

• CAPEX incentive
• Governmental exploration drilling
Tariff due to • Green/ clean technology fund
project economics • Local content encouragement
PLN‘s max.
power purchase PLN’s maximum power purchase is
Gap
defined according to Ministry of Energy
and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Decree
No. 50/2017
Allowable Tariff

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INDICATIVE CAPEX FOR 50 MW GEOTHERMAL GENERATION
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
PHASE / ACTIVITY ESTIMATE
% ESTIMATE
% ESTIMATE
%

ENTHALPHY T > 225 °C (HIGH) T = 125-225 °C (MID) T < 125 °C (LOW)

1 Preliminary Survey, Permits, Market Analysis 1 1% 2 1% 5 2%

2 Exploration 2 1% 3 2% 4 1%
3 Test Drillings, Well Testing, Reservoir Evaluation 12 8% 19 9% 32 11%
4 FS, Project Planning, Funding, Contracts, Insurances, etc. 5 4% 7 4% 11 4%
5 Drillings (20 boreholes) 48 32% 75 36% 107 36%
6 Construction (power plant, cooling, infrastructure, etc.) 69 46% 80 38% 101 35%
7 Steam Gathering System and Substation 11 7% 17 8% 23 8%
8 Start-up and Commissioning 3 2% 5 3% 9 3%
TOTAL 151 100% 209 100% 292 100%
In US$ Million per MW Installed 3,0 4,2 5,8
Source: Handbook of Geothermal Power Finance, ESMAP-2012 (Escalated in 2017)

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Thank You !