GLOBAL LITE REPORT

QUARTER BY
NUMBERS
Q1 2019

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 CONTENTS
WELCOME............................................................................ 3

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
ASIA-PACIFIC ........................................................................ 4
NORTH AMERICA ................................................................... 9
EUROPE WEST ..................................................................... 13
EUROPE EAST/CENTRAL ..................................................... 18
LATIN AMERICA ................................................................... 23
AMERICA AND MIDDLE EAST .............................................. 28

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 WELCOME
Across the globe, how companies do business is changing. Consumer
behaviors are evolving as demographics shift and advances in technology
are opening up new avenues for people to engage with content and
brands. 

These new connections are unlocking opportunities for marketers

to reach consumers. But knowing how and where to connect with
consumers in this increasingly complex marketplace can be challenging.
As multinationals seek growth across the globe and local companies look
beyond their borders, they need help identifying the opportunities that
are right for their business. 

Our Quarter by Numbers reports help our clients do just that. Our first-
quarter 2019 report covers 66 countries across five regions. This quarterly
series provides a global snapshot of what’s going on in our markets today.

We produce five reports to help clients zero in on specific regions of the

world. The series is available free of charge to all Nielsen clients. They are
also for sale to non-clients. This lite report represents an overview of the
insights detailed in the five regional reports.

Our five market-level reports are as follows: Asia Pacific (15 countries),
North America (two), Latin America (seven), Africa and Middle East (nine),
and Europe (33).

If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the individual regional

reports, please visit the individual report pages by clicking on the
images below.

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 ASIA-PACIFIC

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 THE BIG PICTURE
MESSAGE FROM JUSTIN SARGENT
In the first quarter of 2019, we welcomed the Year of the Pig into Asia-Pacific with
hopes of success and prosperity in this growing region. Asia-Pacific continues
to boast some of the world’s highest levels of GDP growth, the most optimistic
consumers (increasingly so year on year) and solid fast-moving consumer goods
Justin Sargent (FMCG) growth. GDP growth remains above 6% in China, India, Philippines
President, and Vietnam, despite potential concerns of the U.S.-China trade tensions.
China Furthermore, the Philippines is now the country with the most confident
consumers, while consumer confidence in Vietnam has increased significantly in
the latest quarter.

Despite the positive economic outlook and high consumer confidence in the
region, the economy is still the top concern for Asia-Pacific consumers. This
is particularly pertinent in Malaysia and Thailand, where concerns about the
economy increased significantly in the period. Vietnamese consumers are more
concerned about health than any other country in the region, and concerns are
growing in the Philippines in light of the introduction of sugar taxes, which have
garnered much attention. Given the budding developments in these growing
companies, it will be important for manufacturers and retailers to stay attuned to
consumer desires for healthy products and services.

Despite Chinese New Year being the peak time when Chinese people go on
holiday, data from the latest quarter highlight that Chinese consumers plan
to spend less on holidays and put more of their spare cash into savings. If
consumers do in fact pull back on travel, neighboring countries could suffer the
brunt, as millions of Chinese consumers frequently travel to neighboring regions
with a high willingness to spend. Despite their planned pull-back on holiday
spending, Chinese consumers are not eliminating travel altogether. Overall,
planned spending on holidays remains high, and we expect it to rise when the
Beijing Daxing Airport opens shortly, which will serve an additional 100 million
travellers each year. 

Asia’s traditional FMCG industry grew 4.5% in the recent quarter, which is slightly
less than in the previous quarter and a year ago. Nonetheless, volume growth
remains high in India (+12.9%), Thailand (+4.2%) and Vietnam (+4.1%) based on
the average of the last two quarters compared to year ago. Premiumisation also
continues to present opportunity in Asia-Pacific, due to the increase in disposable
income, urbanisation and consumers’ willingness to spend.  

In a recent analysis across 95,000 brands across 11 countries, we found that

premium brands (those priced 20% above average) accounted for 28% of value
sales. The research also found that a significant number of winning premium
brands are local Southeast Asia brands.

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 ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCE
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND
ASIA-PACIFIC
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in
collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects,
personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence
levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and
pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDEX

GDP (% Q1 2019 VS GDP (% Q1 2019 VS

INFLATION Q1 2019 INFLATION Q1 2019
CHANGE PA) Q4 2018 CHANGE PA) Q4 2018

Vietnam 6.8 2.6 129 7 Japan 0.6 0.7 83 -5

New
2.7* 1.8* 106 2 Singapore 1.2 0.5 92 -4
Zealand

Taiwan 1.7 0.3 84 2 Malaysia 4.5 -0.3 115 -3

Philippines 5.6 3.8 133 2 Thailand 2.8 0.7 111 -2

China 6.4 1.8 115 2 Indonesia 5.1 2.5 125 -2

Hong Kong 0.6 2.2 100 1 India 5.8 2.5 132 -1

South Korea 1.8 0.5 49 0 Australia 2.1* 1.3 95 -1

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
Source: GDP and Inflation reflects % change per annum to Q1 2019. Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/local governments where not available in EIU
* Indicates estimate/forecast

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 ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCE
CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC
WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?
Q1 2019
Type of concern
60%
50% 54
40% 45 44
39
30% 35 36 34 34
31 29 31 31 32 30 31 30
27 28 27
20% 22 21 23
17 18 17 18 16 18
10% 12 13
0
APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
The economy 2 1 1 -6 1 -2 5 4 8 -2 -4 3 8 -2 7
Health 3 2 2 5 0 4 1 3 -3 1 10 4 2 7 1

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?

Q1 2019
After living expenses, how is spare money spent?

80%
70% 75
60% 65 67 68 66 68 66 65
61 63 60 62
50% 58 55 57
54 51 53
40% 47 49 46
45
40 38
30% 36
32 29 32 29
20% 27
10%
0
APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
Putting $ into savings 2 -2 6 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -5 2 3 4 -2 -2 -3
Holidays / vacations -2 -1 -6 -1 0 1 5 1 4 -1 -5 3 -3 -2 3

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

IN = India ID = Indonesia
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

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 LOOKING THROUGH ASIA-PACIFIC’S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS LENS
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average - Asia-Pacific - 13 countries

MAT YA MAT TY Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19
7 6.5%
6.1%
5.1% 5.2% 4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9%
4.7% 4.5%
3.7% 4.4%
2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.3%

2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2%
0
UNIT VALUE GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH
*Thailand is not included in regional average due to limited back data from new universe update

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?

Average volume growth Q4 2018 & Q1 2019

JAPAN (-0.1%)
CHINA (+0.3%)
KOREA (-2.9%)
INDIA (+12.9%)
TAIWAN (-1.4%)
HONG KONG (-1.6%)
THAILAND (+4.2%)
PHILIPPINES (+2.2%)
VIETNAM (+4.1%)
MALAYSIA (+1.6%)
SINGAPORE (+0.6%)

INDONESIA (-0.6%)

AUSTRALIA (-0.4%)

Average volume growth decreasing versus last period

Average volume growth increasing versus last period
NEW ZEALAND (+1.5%)

Colour coding indicates growth or declining trend compared to same 6 month period year ago
Average volume growth of Q4’18 & Q1’19 vs Q4’17 & Q1’18.

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 NORTH AMERICA

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 THE BIG PICTURE
U.S.: HEALTH CONCERNS DRIVE FRESH SALES
Consumer confidence in the U.S. remained high in first-quarter 2019 and flat from fourth-quarter
2018, but optimism was four points lower than in first-quarter 2018 despite similar economic
indicators (GDP and inflation are fairly flat compared with last year and previous quarters). This may
be linked to health, economy and political stability concerns at the top of the ranking, generating
uncertainty about the future.

Declining consumer demand into first-quarter 2019 and stable value growth slowed FMCG market
performance. However, there are key pockets of growth as health concerns may be fuelling a more
selective consumer, boosting fresh produce and the performance of the premiere fresh grocery
channel. Another sign that consumers may be changing their FMCG shopping habits is the growth
of private label and smaller brands. It suggests that categories where innovation is not taking off are
becoming commoditised, and emerging disruptors may be fueling those trends.

Today, fresh foods are one such disruptor. More specifically, food and beverages sold by weight
should be on your radar. Why? Because they are too often overlooked, yet they continue to expand
and drive growth across the store. While the likes of beverages, snacks and candy have brought
renewed growth to center of store grocery, fresh foods aren’t falling to the wayside. In fact, random
weight fresh products alone have brought in $4.6 billion. Putting that into perspective, that’s a huge
relative to each department’s performance this year.

CANADA: FOOD INFLATION IS A TOP CONCERN

Consumer confidence in Canada increased five points in first-quarter 2019 from the previous
quarter, but only three points from the same time last year. Consumer optimism in Canada may have
been linked to a decreased inflation rate this quarter, which for the first time in a year, fell below GDP
growth. Even so, food prices still rank as the highest concern for Canadian consumers, followed by
health and the economy.

In line with such concerns, the FMCG market has observed higher value growth, contrasted with
lower volume demand to portray a flat performance overall. Thus, food categories (grocery, produce,
deli) have driven most of the value growth, while the decline has stemmed from non-grocery (-2.3%).

Food is therefore where most opportunities are rising, as Canadians invest more time and energy in
finding their right lifestyle approach, the industry also has the challenge to grasp what consumers
want and execute accordingly. Understanding trends like plant-based, e-commerce, cruelty free, meal
kits, label transparency and more will give you and your brands a leading-edge industry positioning
and increased basket growth—which seems to be more difficult to achieve these days.

The projected uptick in household income levels, due to robust jobs and wage growth, is likely to
continue to support consumer spending. On the flip side, high household debt and moderating
economic growth could potentially limit consumers’ discretionary spending in the near future.

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 NORTH AMERICA AT A GLANCE
ECONOMIC PULSE IN NORTH AMERICA
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with
Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate
spending intentions. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate
degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

GDP (% CHANGE vs. Q1 2019 VS
INFLATION Q1 2019
YEAR-AGO) Q4 2018
Canada 1.8 1.6 106 5

United States 2.8 2.3 119 0

CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN NORTH AMERICA

TOP TWO CONCERNS OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS
Q1 2019
25%
24 25 24 25 CA U.S.
20% 22
20
15% 16
14 15 15 14
12 13
10% 11 11
10 9
5% 7
5 4
0
HEALTH ECONOMY IMMIGRATION DEBT POLITICAL JOB SECURITY FOOD PRICES UTILITY BILLS TERRORISM GLOBAL
STABILITY WARMING

TOP AREAS FOR SPENDING SPARE MONEY

CA U.S.
42 43
45 SAVINGS 41

34 36
30 HOLIDAYS 32

39 36
33 PAYING OFF DEBT 29

23 27
Q1 2018 19 NEW CLOTHES 30

Q1 2019 19
19 HOME IMPROVEMENTS 25
28

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Sources: The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen,
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), GDP and Inflation reflects % change vs. year-ago to Q1 2019.

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 LOOKING THROUGH NORTH AMERICA’S FAST-MOVING
CONSUMER GOODS LENS
U.S. FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
MAT YA MAT TY Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19
2.7%
2.5% 2.2%
0.3%
1.7% 1.1% 0.5%
2.0% 2.0%
1.2%
1.4% 2.0%
1.9% 1.9% 1.2%
0.2% 1.6% 1.1%
1.3% 0.9% 0.8%
0.7%
1.2%
-0.1% -0.2% -0.9% -0.8%
-0.5% -0.5% -0.4%

UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION UNIT % CHANGE DOLLAR % CHANGE

Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services (RMS), inclusive of Nielsen’s Total Food View, Total U.S. All Outlets Combined (xAOC), 52 weeks to
March 30, 2019, UPC-coded and random-weight/non-UPC data

CANADA FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS

MAT YA MAT TY Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19
5

3.5%

2.6%
2.3% 2.3%
1.5% 1.9%
0.6% 0.0% 3.2% 1.4%
1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 2.9%
1.7% 2.2% 0.8%
1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2%
0.8% 0.9%
0
-0.2% -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% -2.7%

UNIT INFLATION / DEFLATION UNIT % CHANGE DOLLAR % CHANGE

Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, National All Channels, 52 Weeks to March 30, 2019, Excludes Fresh Random weight - Canada

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 EUROPE WEST

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 THE BIG PICTURE
EUROPE WEST
The Western Europe economic growth slowdown continued in first-quarter 2019 as
exports cooled across the region, mainly fueled by less demand in China. This affected
most Eurozone markets one way or another, as GDP growth for most Western Europe
markets was just over +1%. The impact on Germany was been more evident, as GDP
Olivier Lamare was only +0.7%, due to the country’s strong export-driven growth model and reliance
Retail Services on China. The Eurozone slowdown triggered easing measures by the European Central
Developed Markets Bank to keep interest rates at current low levels until the end of 2019. The bank has
also taken steps to stimulate lending by banks to the real economy.

The extension of Brexit to 31 October fueled further uncertainty, along with the
European Parliament elections, which have driven polarized results across the region.
This was largely responsible for consumer sentiment being cautious or less positive
in nine out of the 15 Western Europe markets where it is measured. Against this
backdrop of uncertainty, it’s increasingly important for brands and retailers to create
loyal shoppers and keep them. According to the Nielsen Global Disloyalty Survey 2019,
“New is the next big thing as consumer bonds with more established brands weaken
and threaten long-term loyalty.”

The survey revealed that one-third (33%) of European consumers state they “love trying
new things,” below the global average of 42% but still meaningful for “mature” markets.
Also, two-in-five European consumers (40%) believe they are “more likely to try new
brands that they have never tried before,” demonstrating an increasing attention
to innovation.

Price and heritage still remain a large part of success in driving much-needed loyalty,
but online presence, product quality, functionality, local origin, social responsibility and
transparency are increasingly important factors in driving loyalty and brand relevance.

Looking forward, economic growth for the Eurozone is forecasted at only +1% for 2019,
compared with a global forecast of around +3%. With shoppers limiting their spending
somewhat as they consider where and on what they spend on, understanding what
levers to pull to ensure brand relevance and that it results in being placed in the
shopping basket has become more important than ever.

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 EUROPE WEST AT
A GLANCE
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND
WESTERN EUROPE
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in
collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects,
personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence
levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and
pessimism, respectively

CONSUMER CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDEX

GDP (% Q1 2019 VS GDP (% Q1 2019 VS

INFLATION Q1 2019 INFLATION Q1 2019
CHANGE PA) Q4 2018 CHANGE PA) Q4 2018

France 1.1 1.4 72 8 Spain 2.4 1.1 88 -6

Finland 2.1 1.2 88 6 Ireland 3.5 0.8 101 -5

Switzerland 1.4 0.6 105 5 Italy 0.0 1.0 68 -3

Portugal 1.7 0.8 91 4 Sweden 2.0 1.9 94 -1

Austria 1.6 1.6 107 3 U.K. 1.8 1.8 98 -1

Norway 1.4 2.9 92 3 Denmark 2.2 1.2 119 -0

Netherlands 1.8 2.5 108 3

Belgium 1.2 2.2 96 2

Germany 0.7 1.4 104 1

GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q1 2019 or (-) indicates not available at time of publication
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)* estimate/OECD/local government sources
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

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 EUROPE WEST AT
A GLANCE
CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN WESTERN EUROPE
WHAT ARE THE TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?
Type of concern

35%
30%
29
25% 27
24 24 24 24 24
20% 22 21 21 21 22 22 21
15% 17 18 17 17 18
16 16 16 15
14 14
10% 12 12 12 12 12
10
5% 6
0
EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE

EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE
The economy 0 1 2 -2 1 -4 -3 4 1 2 5 -1 3 -1 1 1
Increasing utility 0 2 -3 2 2 -2 0 -5 -9 -2 -3 2 7 2 -2 -2

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?

After living expenses, how is spare money spent

60%
57
50% 51 53
50 50
48
45 46 49 47 49 47 48 49 47
40% 43 42 41
39 37 40 39 38
37 35 35 37 35 35
30% 32
29 28
20%
10%
0
EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE

EU AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE
Putting $ into savings -1 1 6 3 1 3 -5 2 -2 1 5 -3 4 1 1 2
Holidays / vacations 0 2 1 3 -2 2 1 3 3 6 3 2 2 4 3 2

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

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 LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE WEST FAST-MOVING
CONSUMER GOODS LENS
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS – Q1 2019
Weighted average – West Europe – 15 countries

AT BE CH DE DK ES FI FR GB IE IT NL NO PT SE
5.0 4.3%
3.6%
0.7% 3.1%
2.7% 2.9%
1.3% 1.8% 2.1%
1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 3.6% 1.2%
0.7%
1.7% 2.4% 2.1%
1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 2.3% 1.5%
0.7% 0.7%
-0.1% -0.9% -0.3% -1.2% -1.1%
-0.4% -0.4% -0.5%
-1.8% -0.3%
-1.3% -2.1% -1.0%
-2.5
UNIT VALUE CHANGE VOLUME CHANGE NOMINAL GROWTH

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?

Average volume growth Q4 2018 & Q1 2019

COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND COMPARED

TO SAME 6 MONTH PERIOD YEAR AGO.
AVERAGE VOLUME GROWTH OF Q4’18 & Q1’19 VS Q4’17 & Q1’18 FINLAND (+0.6%)
Average volume growth decreasing versus last period
SWEDEN (+1.1%)
Average volume growth increasing versus last period

NORWAY (-0.9%)

U.K. (-0.7%) DENMARK (0%)

IRELAND (-0.6%)
NETHERLANDS (+0.2%)
BELGIUM (-1.3%)
GERMANY (-1.2%)
FRANCE (-0.4%) AUSTRIA (+0.3%)
SWITZERLAND (-0.9%)

ITALY (0%)
PORTUGAL (+0.9%)
SPAIN (+0.8%)

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 EUROPE EAST
AND CENTRAL

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 THE BIG PICTURE
EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST
The economic performance of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries was
mixed in the first quarter of 2019. While some major countries were characterized by
political uncertainty and economic challenges (Russia and Turkey), the performance of
many smaller Central European countries was strong in the entire European region.
Daniel Chorbadjian
The Baltic countries (Lithuania and Latvia: 3.8% and 3%, respectively), Romania (5%)
Managing Director
and Hungary (5.3%) experienced positive GDP growth, which as generated by the
Eastern Europe
increase in domestic consumption and rising personal and government investments.
Greece has also witnessed a positive GDP change, thanks to the refinements of the
economy, with consumer confidence likely to grow over the next year reflected in
improved earnings and willingness to buy things.

It’s important to highlight that GDP is slowing in the region’s more stable countries
(Poland and the Czech Republic) as exports decline to West European countries.
Nevertheless, labor force shortages in many industries are pushing up wages in these
markets, creating a positive impact on consumer sentiment. Notably, the consumer
confidence index maintained its strength and stability (105 and 108, respectively) in
the first quarter. It’s also important to remember that many CEE countries face difficult
economic situations, with fragile consumer confidence. The majority of consumers
in Ukraine (92%), Turkey (82%), Belarus (85%), Russia (79%) and Croatia (78%) believe
that their country’s economy is in recession, and confidence in most of these countries
declined in the first quarter.

In FMCG, growth was driven mainly by price in the region, particularly in Turkey
and Russia, where volume consumption declined in the first quarter amid higher
inflation. On the other hand, volume consumption has been most positive in Romania,
Kazakhstan and Greece.

It remains a challenging environment for manufacturers to win with the economic,

social and cultural diversity of consumers in CEE. The Nielsen Global Disloyalty Survey
found that national origin is important in the region. Four of the top five European
countries where exclusive local buyers share is the highest are based in CEE. This
showcases the opportunity for local manufacturers to use locally grown and made as a
key selling proposition.

Personal financial situations make consumers more likely to respond by switching

brands to lower priced offers than the European average in Turkey, Romania, Ukraine,
Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Greece. Promotions influence consumers to try new products
or switch brands, especially in Turkey, Greece and Poland. The good news is that price
is not the only motivating factor to try new things: superior quality and convenience/
ease of usage are also highly valued and can help your brands stand out.

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 EUROPE CENTRAL AND
EAST AT A GLANCE
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND EUROPE
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in
collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects,
personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence
levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and
pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDEX

GDP GDP
Q1 2019 VS Q1 2019 VS
(ANNUAL % INFLATION Q1 2019 (ANNUAL % INFLATION Q1 2019
Q4 2018 Q4 2018
GROWTH) GROWTH)
Lithuania 3.8 2.1 86 5 Estonia 0.5 2.3 81 -8

Belarus 1.1 5.9 70 3 Israel 3.5 0.8 98 -6

Hungary 5.3 3.2 78 3 Kazakhstan 3.8 1.3 77 -6

Slovenia 3.2 1.3 90 3 Croatia 3.9 1.4 75 -5

Bulgaria 3.4 3.3 85 2 Turkey -2.6 19.9 83 -4

Latvia 3.0 2.9 85 2 Slovakia 3.8 2.4 89 -4

Poland 4.7 1.2 105 0 Ukraine 2.2 8.9 55 -3

Czech Rep. 2.5 2.7 108 0 Russia 0.8 5.2 62 -2

Romania 5.0 3.7 99 -2

Greece 1.7 0.7 70 -1

GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q1 2019 /latest available data
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/OECD/ local government sources
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

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 EUROPE CENTRAL AND
EAST AT A GLANCE
CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN EAST AND CENTRAL EUROPE
WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?
Type of concern

60%
50% 56

40%
30% 36
32 30 30 30
20% 22 21 25 26 24 24 22 24 26 23 23 24
19 20 20 19 20
16 16 16 17
10% 13 12 12 13
10 8 10 8 10
0
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UA

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UA
The economy 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 2 -4 1 -3 0 3 0 -2 -1 2 0 -6
Increasing utility bills 0 3 1 5 4 0 13 0 3 1 -3 -6 1 3 1 2 -1 3

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?

After living expenses, how is spare money spent

60%
50% 55
50
40% 45
39 41 41 42 43 43 42 39
39 37 36 38
30% 32 35 33 31 32 32 32
30 31
28 28 28 30 29
20% 22 23 24 24 22
20
10% 13
0
EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UA

EU BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UA
Putting $ into savings -1 3 -2 -2 -3 2 -6 1 1 6 -4 4 2 -3 -1 -1 -5 -5
Holidays / vacations 0 5 -4 -3 8 2 0 3 -2 6 -3 6 -1 3 -1 2 -9 -1

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 21
 LOOKING THROUGH EUROPE CENTRAL AND EAST FAST-MOVING
CONSUMER GOODS LENS
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS – Q1 2019
Weighted average - Europe East and Central - 17 countries

BG BL CZ EE GR HR HU KZ LT LV PL RO RU SI SK TR UA
30

20.0%
16.8%
14.0%
3.2% 3.9% 4.9% 6.6% 10.5% 4.3% 10.4% 24.9% 5.7%
3.5% 3.2% 1.8% 6.0%
0.3% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 3.4% 1.4% 1.8% 3.6%
2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 4.0% 2.5% 7.1% 4.4% 2.1% 0.6%
2.9% 10.5% 0.2% 0.4% 2.8% 11.1%
1.3%
6.0% 6.5% 4.7% 4.6%
3.3% 3.0% 3.3% 3.0%
-0.2% -0.7% -5.0%
-6
UNIT VALUE CHANGE VOLUME CHANGE NOMINAL GROWTH
*BL = Belarus

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?

Average volume growth Q1 2019 & Q4 2018

COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND COMPARED

TO SAME 6 MONTH PERIOD YEAR AGO. AVERAGE VOLUME GROWTH OF
Q4’18 & Q1’19 VS Q4’17 & Q1’18
Average volume growth decreasing versus last period
Average volume growth increasing versus last period

RUSSIA (+2.7%)

ESTONIA (+1.2%)
LATVIA (+1.6%)
LITHUANIA (+0.3%) BELARUS (+4.4%)
POLAND (+2.7%)
CZECH REPUBLIC (-2.1%) UKRAINE (+6.7%)
SLOVAKIA (-0.3%)
HUNGARY (+2.1%) KAZAKHSTAN (+2.6%)
SLOVENIA (-1.1%) ROMANIA (+6%)
CROATIA (+1%)
BULGARIA (+0.5%)
GREECE (+1.4%)
TURKEY (-0.3%)

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 LATIN AMERICA

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Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 23
 THE BIG PICTURE
LATIN AMERICA
Latin America’s economic growth prospects are expected to be better than in
2018, but performance in the first quarter of 2019 remained moderate due to
slowdowns in Brazil and Mexico and the deepening recession in Argentina. A
challenging external environment and political uncertainty will continue to weigh
Armando Uriegas on this year’s outlook.
President,
Inflation in Latin America climbed to 8.3% in March 2019, placing additional
Latin America
pressure on shoppers’ wallets. Price pressures have had a greater impact in Brazil,
where rising fuel prices have stoked prices and Argentina, where pressures from
the weaker peso persist.

Consumer confidence indicators have improved across most countries in Latin

America (average confidence index of 95 in Q1 2019). Strengthening confidence
levels, however, have yet to translate into increased consumption and spending:
The overall FMCG basket decreased 1,4% compared with a year ago.

Within these challenging economic climates, shoppers are looking for ways to
stretch their money. Consumers are looking to take advantage of cost-saving
options and private labels within discounters and supermarkets that offer regular
promotional activities. This has adversely affected the performance of traditional
trade retailers who, for the first time, have lost ground in the region.

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 LATIN AMERICA AT
A GLANCE
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS AROUND
LATIN AMERICA
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted
in collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job
prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions.
Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate
degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDEX

GDP Q1 2019
INFLATION Q1 2019 VS
(% ANNUAL Q1 2019
Q1 2019 Q4 2018
GROWTH)

Peru 3.9 2.3 109 13

Costa Rica 2.7 1.4 83 7

Argentina -6.1 51.0 72 5

Mexico 1.4 4.3 101 4

Columbia 2.7 3.2 101 2

Brazil 1.4 4.3 99 -

Chile 2.7 2.0 91 -

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.
Source: GDP and Inflation from Latin Focus, Q1 2019

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 LATAM AT A GLANCE
CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN LATIN AMERICA
WHAT ARE THE TOP THREE CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?
50%

40% 44
40
35 35 37
30% 32 33 33
29 30 29 30 30
27
20% 23 22 27 22
19 21 21
16 18
10% 11
0
LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR

LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR
The economy -3 -2 -4 -1 -6 -5 3 -5
Job security - -4 -3 4 -6 -10 5 3
Crime - 1 7 0 4 1 -5 4

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

ACTIONS TAKEN TO SAVE ON HOUSEHOLD EXPENSES

Top three actions taken to save money (%)
70%
60% 65
59
50% 53 53
48 51 48
40% 45 46 44 46 43 46
42 40
30% 38 36
31 33 30 28 28 29
20% 23
10%
0
LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR

LATAM BR CL MX CO PE AR CR
Out-of-home entertainment -7 -6 -8 -8 -7 -10 -7 -15
New clothes -3 -2 -2 -1 -8 -7 -7 -8
Grocery brands 0 -1 0 1 4 -10 2 7

Bars reflect Q1 2019. Table shows comparison to Q4 2018

The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen.

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 LATIN AMERICA’S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS RETAIL LENS
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average - Latin America - 12 countries*

MAT YA MAT TY Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19
8.5
6.7
5.5
4.8 4.8 5.0
4.1 3.9 3.7 4.1
7.2 8.1
5.2 4.4 4.3 5.5
5.6 3.7 3.5
0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2
-0.5 -1.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.4
-2.0
VOLUME GROWTH UNIT VALUE GROWTH NOMINAL GROWTH
(*) Mexico, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Chile, Argentina, Peru and Uruguay, data from Q1’14 until present. Excluded: Brazil, Colombia,
Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Panama and Dominican Republic. Due to enhancements in Uruguay databases LatAm’s MAT YA growth cannot be shown.

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?

Average volume growth Q4 2018 & Q1 2019

MEXICO (1.0)

COSTA RICA (-0.7)

COLOMBIA (-0.4)

PERU (-2.0)
BRAZIL (-1.5)

CHILE (0.9)

ARGENTINA (-13.6)
COLOR CODING – AVERAGE
Q4 2018 & Q1 2019 vs. Q4 2017 & Q1 2018

Average volume growth decreasing

Average volume growth increasing

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 AFRICA AND
MIDDLE EAST

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Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 28
 THE BIG PICTURE
AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST
Across the Middle East, North Africa and the key Sub-Saharan Africa markets of Nigeria,
South Africa and Angola, economic growth was subdued in 2018. The growth forecast
for this year is lower than anticipated, with improvements only predicted for 2020, as
global financial indicators, commodity prices and economic reforms continue to take
time to settle.

Across Africa and Middle East (AME), job security is the top concern among consumers,
followed by the economy, which has fueled a savings mindset as consumers await their
circumstances to improve, before considering spending more openly.

Despite concerns close to their wallets, consumer confidence improved in seven of

the eight countries measured in AME, indicating a more favorable outlook for the
upcoming 12 months. It also suggests the likelihood of increased spending. Decreasing
inflation also provided much needed pricing relief to consumers in many countries,
although inflation remains higher than 9% in in Nigeria, Egypt and Ghana.

Improvements in FMCG spending in the latest quarter are evident in seven of the nine
countries. Morocco and Cameroon are the exceptions, where spending value and
volume are declining. Looking through a longer-term lens, only Morocco has faced
volume declines over a six-month period compared with a year ago.

Economic, consumer and retail indicators are looking up for AME in the months ahead.
While value for money products are always sought after in tougher times, there are
also many consumers seeking higher quality and premium offerings. Smaller, local
manufacturers in East and West Africa have been able to capture higher growth with
their flexible and value orientated offerings.

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 AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST
AT A GLANCE
ECONOMIC AND CONSUMER PULSE
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey conducted in
collaboration with Nielsen and measures perceptions of local job prospects,
personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence
levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and
pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDEX

GDP (% Q1 2019 VS GDP (% Q1 2019 VS

INFLATION Q1 2019 INFLATION Q1 2019
GROWTH PA) Q4 2018 GROWTH PA) Q4 2018

Nigeria 2.4 11.2 126 9 Kenya 5.9 4.4 101 -1

Morocco 2.9 -0.1 75 4

Egypt 5.5 14.2 85 3

United Arab
1.7 -2.5 113 3
Emirates

Saudi Arabia 3.6 -2.1 112 3

South Africa 1.1 4.5 90 2

Ghana 6.8 9.3 108 1

Cameroon 4.6 2.3 N/A 0

GDP is annualised growth, Inflation is quarterly change. Numbers are used for the latest quarter available (GDP – Q4’18, Inflation Q1’19).
CCI change is relative to the previous quarter (PQ). CCI data is not available for Cameroon.

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 AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST
AT A GLANCE
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
TOP TWO CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

50%

40%

30%
48%
20%
31% 34% 33%
26% 23% 26% 27% 27%
10% 17%
0
EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

Job security 1 0 -3 2 1
The economy 3 1 1 0 5

Chart - Current quarter, Table – Change vs PQ

Top Concern and Spending data unavailable for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Cameroon

WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING, AND INVESTING?

After living expenses, how is spare money utilized?

50%

40%

30%
49% 45%
20% 37%
30% 33%
24% 22% 26%
10% 17% 21%

0
EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA

Putting into savings -3% -4% -3% 4% 3%
New clothes -3% 1% -3% -3% 1%

Source: The Conference Board ® Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen

Copyright © 2019 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 31
 AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST’S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER
GOODS RETAIL LENS
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average growth Q1’19 vs year ago

EGY MOR KSA UAE ZA NGR GH KNY CAM

16.5% 16.2%
12.0%
9.0% 4.6% 10.6%
9.0% 6.0%
3.4% 16.7%
2.5%
1.2% 13.1%
7.5% 15.0%
7.5%
3.5%
-3.3% 1.4% -1.2% -0.5% -4.3%
-1.1%
-1.3% -2.0%
-4.6% -3.1%
UNIT VALUE GROWTH VOLUME GROWTH NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH

FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

Average volume growth Q4’18 & Q1’19 vs year ago

MOROCCO (-4.1%) EGYPT (+8.5%)

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
(+1.9%)
SAUDI ARABIA (+4.9%)

GHANA (+17.7%) NIGERIA (+11.3%)

CAMEROON (+2.9%)
KENYA (+16.1%)

COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWING OR DECLINING TREND – AVERAGE

Q1’19 & Q4’18 vs. Q1’18 & Q4’17

Average volume growth decreasing

SOUTH AFRICA (+1.8%)
Average volume growth increasing

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 INTERESTED IN
ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS?
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Numbers reports, please visit www.global.shopnielsen.com.

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 If you are interested in purchasing one or more of the individual regional
reports, please visit the individual report pages by clicking on the
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ABOUT NIELSEN
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THE SCIENCE BEHIND WHAT’S NEXT ™

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