Panel Discussion on Indian Economy
● K.P Kannan
The .unusual situation in India.
40%investment needed to get 8%growth.
Economic review
More growth will bring more employment.
The absolute decrease in the labour force. Negative employment elasticity.
Export 18% now. 21% in UPA.
● Beena
Slack in demand.- Textiles, Iron and steel, motor vehicles, Transport equipment.
Steel industry contributes 2% of GDP.
.Gems and jewellery 14% GDP, Textiles 12.65%
.Textiles - largest employer after agriculture.
.Growth of remittances has compensated the deterioration of CAD
74% of FDI in service. 50% in FPI
?External sector
Source mobilization- Disinvestment.
● Parameswaran
Investment. Cumulative causation(Capital formation and growth) and virtuous cycle. Multiple
equilibria.
You cannot choose data without a framework.
Unlike natural science variables in social science depends on the theoretical framework.
.Re calibration of images
● Vinoj
.Minimum wages, application of behavioural economics.
.Labour codes - reducing earlier acts
.MW exist but not effective
.No uniform criteria
.there should be a floor minimum wages
.MW guarantee subsistence of the households.
.the National Minimum wage is it desirable?
.Minimum wage is problematic. Right now.
.Nudging can be from the practical norm to ideal norm.
● Murukan
● Mishra
.Demographic dividend.
Responsiveness of budget to Demographic dividend.
.Quantum of the workforce doesn't matter. What matter are the characteristics of the
workforce? If fertility declines workforce will increase.
.whether budget allocation is responsive to the circumstances presented in the economic
survey.
● Mallick
● Mani
Technology and innovation
The R&D tax incentive was reduced in a stepwise step manner. 2017-20=150
From 20-21 =100 - good policy.
Startup India - January 2016.
.Angel Tax- income tax payable on capital by unlisted companies- it affects only 80 startups
so no need to spent in the budget.
.rate of growth of digital payment.
Faster diffusion of electric vehicles.
.Incentivefor EV
. Do we have battery charging facilities? Do we have a patent in manufacturing components
like lithium iron cell?
.For charging EV ecosystem- Tax rebates to buyers, tightening fuel efficiency norm,
restriction on new diesel vehicle plants.
Incentive induced industrialisation.
.DBT introduced in MGNREGA in 216-17.
.Establishment of the national research foundation. 4 divisions. Science, Technology, Social
Sciences, arts and humanities.
Book Review -Rajalaxmi
Census and NSSO data
Employment and educated related migrants
Northeast youth migrate for employment where Sikkim for education.
. Regional disparity
2001 census, planning commission data.
Youth migration and development.
.Social category
Lower caste migrate more
01/08/2019
● Amiya Bagchi
The political economy of the Arab Spring.
Why the Arab Spring
Oil, Remittance, unnoticed political-economic reasons.
2011 Jan 4 vendors set fire.
Role of political Islam.
Nasar backed by Islamists.
More oppression more influence of Muslim.
Gulf countries are interested in charity.
When the Islamist party came into power rule for women.
.
The GDP debate - R.Nagaraj.
● 3 approach to measuring national income
● Consumption, production, income
● Non-market production excluded from GDP by definition.
● Money metric outcome of the Keynesian analysis.
● GDP revision is important and routine.
● Possibility. Old series underestimated and new series is able to better capture it. So
overestimation or better estimate from Singapore. Financial investment station?
● The largest number of the call.
● Organized by unread sector.
● Unorganized _ quasi corporates
● How ßhoid y6
● Interstate distribution
● Competing GDP back series.
● conclusion
● Rebasing of NAS led to following changes., level and growth of GDP got altered.
● Aravind Subramanyam. nobody can bring alternative measure. His model doesn't
have a fully structured macro model. It can be used as a validation for official
measurement.
● Their brute econometric exercise ours is detective exercise.
● Distribution of GDP across States changed.
Amit Basole
● Employment questions
● Analysing the employment crisis.
● Supply-side factors- gender norms, caste rigidities, the proliferation of substandard
degrees, youth bulge, rising aspirations resulting from high growth, education wave.
● Demand-side- the collapse of public sector employment, weak employment elasticity
in manufacturing and services, demonetisation, GST, business cycle, deleveraging of
the private sector.
● Nature of structural transition in India - give insight on demand side.
Kuznets- Lewis to Ambedkar Gandhi
● Shift from agriculture to construction and services in rural India
● Rodrik process- declining manufacturing in urban India -premature deindustrialization
● Mode of production and relation of production. Non-capital Own Account enterprise
and family enterprise. Capital-establishment and factory
● Sectoral contribution to job creation between 2011 and 2017 -service sector more
● Self-employment declining slowly but remains dominant over the years.
● On cities, regular wage employment has surpassed self-employment.
● Mechanisation and outsourcing women for women to enter the labour market.
● Rural LFPR decline in women. Income effect, education effect,
● The divergence between labour productivity and real wages in manufacturing (ASI)
Labour Productivity, worker's wage rate, managers compensation.
● The transition from school to work -pre-job training program
Sudip Chaudhuri - When and how does the government succeed and when and why
does government fail: Economic policymaking in the pharmaceutical industry in India.
● Did the government succeed in making anticancer drugs more affordable?
● DPCO, 1970
● Patents act 1970
● Trips1995
● Pharmaceutical the only High tech industry succeed in India.
● Pharmaceutical markets
● Monopoly market - Legal barrier, patents
● Vs Generics market - not patented or patent expired, Active pharmaceutical
Ingredients(API)
● Formulation and different types of market- Retail market
● Patents - provide an incentive to innovate.
● IPR (Intellectual Property Rights)- Legally enforceable right to prevent others from
using it…..
● Why are prices of some medicine so high - patented drugs-patents, biological
drugs-costly, generic drugs- market imperfection?
● What can do? -1 control price, WTO do not forbid it.2. Use TRIPS flexibilities.
● Biologics- large complex molecules derived from living organisms using
biotechnology. More difficult and costlier to manufacture. Regulatory barriers
● Conditions for successful government intervention
1.priority and commitment of top political leadership.
2.Clarity of objectives
3.Simple and easy to implement instruments
3.Effective instruments
4.Minimize opportunity to misuse or abuse provisions
5.Minimize opportunity for litigation
6. Proper understanding of market and industry
7.Choosing the right time and ensuring the right conditions for intervention
8.ability to contain opposition to policies
9.Collaboration and coordination between government and business.
10. Ability to use the market.
11. Ability to use the contradictions among different types of firms
12.Carrot and sticks
13.Ability to correct mistakes and experiment with alternatives.
14. Fiscal constraints
● What is good for you may not good for me? The dominant view was to have a
product patent but India gave only process and methods.
● BG Kumar lecture - Robin Jeffrey -4th September - Search Bharat search world
Seminar on 4th October 2019
FAIRNESS IN RESOURCE ALLOCATION TO STATES; EXPLORING POPULATION
DYNAMICS.
RAJAN AND MISHRA
● Population count (raw) needs accommodation of characteristics
● Dividend state and dependent state
● Structure of demography is important
●
Sebastian Morris - Regional development in India: the issues and challenges - 11-10-2019
● Context of regional development- the growth of larger regions have been
synchronous with national growth.
● Indian regions have subnational character unlike to USA and China so differential in
SDP rates has some implication (since migration difficult)
● Spatial and Urban patterns - the deep articulation of regions
● Migration and regional development - Nuclearisation of the family in a rural area,
difficult to be unemployed and hang out. Building low-cost houses in the right place
is important.
● Data envelopment analysis China is more efficient in agriculture.ToT in favour of
agriculture in China
● Agriculture and regional development - land as non- tradable factor.
● MIO - Milk revolution, operation golden revolution of oil seeds elevated many people
from poverty.
● Fiscal framework - the distinction between tradable and nontradable, City forming
and city serving functions
● Human development and social movements - income distribution in Kerala are better
than that in Gujarat. Since people are educated there is more pressure for policies in
favour of HDI.
● Caste and race are different. Caste hurt ourselves, race hurt others.
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