Academic writig – Certainity

STRONG
It is certain that...
It seems clear that...
X is definitely...
Almost certainly

Given X, we can assume / presume

TENTATIVE
It appears probable...
It is usually the case that... In the majority of cases...
The results suggest it is likely that...
Seemingly, apparently

MODERATE
Conceivably,...
It is possible that...
Occasionally,...
It may be the case that...

UNCERTAIN
It is not yet clear

Although it is not known whether Falla….. … it is hard to imagine that….

Expressing certainty and uncertainty

I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken.
(Oliver Cromwell to the synod of the Church of Scotland on August 5, 1650)

Expressing certainty and uncertainty is a key communicative language skill and needed by
learners at all levels of competence. Hedging and vague language are allied concepts so they
are also dealt with here.

There are times when we don't want to state things definitely and clearly. What are the
possible reasons for that? Think for a moment and then click here.

1.
2.
3.

Downplaying certainty is called hedging.

Here are some examples of what this guide is about.
Can you spot:

1. The parts of the following in which the speakers / writers are being sure or being
vague or uncertain?
2. The way they are doing it – i.e., the linguistic realisation of certainty, hedging and
vagueness?

When you have an answer to a. and b. above, click on the to reveal some comment.

1. She seems to be upset.

2. The use of copular verbs
She seems to be upset. such as seem, appear, looks
(like) etc. is a common
strategy.

1. He tends to be rather rude.

I assume John will be late.
2. The use of so-called
introductory verbs such as
tend, assume, believe,
suggest and so on is another
common strategy. The use
of tend, in particular, is very
common indeed and rarely
taught. In British English it
He tends to be rather rude. takes the place of expressing
I assume John will be late. current or past habit (would
/ used to) as a way of
sounding less
certain. Compare:
We used to have lunch on
the terrace.
We tended to have lunch on
the terrace.
We don't go to the cinema
much.
We tend not to go to the
cinema much.

1.
That'll be the postman.
That might be them now. 2.
That could be the case.

1. I'll certainly try.

I'll certainly try.
He'll probably be late.
He'll probably be late.
You are conceivably wrong.
You are conceivably wrong. 2. These are modal adverbs
(acting as adjuncts) and
there are plenty of them in
English which imply various
levels of certainty, doubt
and likelihood.
Fronting the adverbs has a
major effect. Compare, e.g.,
Probably, we'll get it done.
We'll probably get it done.
Clearly, you are wrong.
You are clearly wrong.

1. I often think he's a bit too

clever.
I sometimes feel he's
deliberately unpleasant.
2. Here two things are
happening:
1. The speaker is using
a projecting mental
process verb. There
are lots of these
I often think he's a bit too clever. including believe,
I sometimes feel he's deliberately feel, guess, consider
unpleasant. etc.
2. The speaker is
making the comment
less definite by the
use of time adverbs,
specifically
frequency,
here. Other
examples include
(in)frequently,
seldom, usually etc.

1. He is certain to be there.
It is possible it will be too
expensive.
There are sure signs of
He is certain to be there. improvement.
It is possible it will be too expensive. 2. Modal adjectives like these
There are sure signs of improvement. are used in a similar way to
modal adverbs. They
express both certainty (sure,
certain etc.) and uncertainty
(possible, probable,
conceivable etc.) and are
frequently used with
 existential It and There
sentences.

1. There's a strongish
possibility that he won't
come.
There an outside chance
that he will arrive on time.
There's a reasonable
likelihood that she'll be late.
2. Modal nouns like these are
almost always qualified in
There's a strongish possibility that he won't some way with an adjective
come. which either makes them
There an outside chance that he will arrive more or less
on time. certain. Collocation is an
There's a reasonable likelihood that she'll be issue because one can have
late. a strong possibility but a
weak possibility is at least
unusual. Similarly, outside
chance is the antonym of
good chance (not bad
chance).
Note, too, that we frequently
use the -ish suffix in spoken
English to downplay the
adjective modifier.

1. That's going to be a bit hard

to do.
He's inclined to be a tad
sure of himself.
That's a little too much.
There are a few new ideas
here.
2. These are vague quantifiers
That's going to be a bit hard to do. or partitives (more below)
He's inclined to be a tad sure of himself. and are very common in
That's a little too much. softening the directness of
There are a few new ideas here. what is said. Learners of
English rarely use them
effectively.
Note, by the way, that in the
second example, the speaker
combines the vague
quantifier with an
introductory verb, inclined
to. That's quite common.
More detail and exemplification follows.

Modality

Expressing uncertainty or certainty using modal expressions (not just modal auxiliary verbs)
is referred to as epistemic modality. The term comes from the Greek word for knowledge
(ἐπιστήμη, epistēmē). We are expressing our view of the truth of a proposition on a scale of
0% possibility to absolute certainty.

Examples above of modal auxiliary verbs doing this job are:

That'll be the postman.
That might be them now.
That could be the case.

pure modal auxiliary verbs

A number of pure or central modal auxiliary verbs can function to express epistemic
modality. They do this in three ways:

Positive Negative
It can be cold here in
It can't be raining again
February
I could be delayed by the
Expressing the possibility that He couldn't have got lost
weather
something is true
He may be late He may not come on time
That might be the That might not be what
postman at the door you imagine
 It can't be from your
That letter must be from mother
the bank It couldn't be from your
mother
Expressing the logical necessity that
If it's at Platform 5, it If it's at Platform 5, it
something is true (not always with
should be the London shouldn't be the one we
absolute certainty)
train want
That's oughtn't to be our
She ought to be at home
train. It's on the wrong
by now
platform
That won't be him
That will be the 6:30 bus
ringing. It's too early.
That would be the That wouldn't be a very
Expressing a prediction that
warmest place to sit comfortable bed.
something will be true
Because John is such a
Because he plays well, I
bad player, I shall beat
shan't beat him easily.
him easily

Notes:

 ought to is often considered a semi-modal auxiliary verb and is, in fact, the only one
that can be used to express epistemic modality (dare, used and need cannot be used
this way). The negative use of ought to is rare.
 shall is quite rare, even in BrE
 an alternative to must in this sense is have (got) to (e.g., in That has to be the right
bus) but there is no negative, can't and couldn't being preferred. The insertion of got
strengthens the sense of certainty.

marginal modal auxiliary verbs

(For a bit more, see the guide to semi- and marginal
modal expressions)

A few of these can express some sense of epistemic modality.

seem to
That seems to be the train we need
tend to
The train tends to be busy on Fridays
be likely to
That's likely to be a busy restaurant
be supposed to
 He's supposed to be the manager

modal adverbs, adjectives and

nouns

modal adverbs
There were examples of these above using certainly, probably, clearly etc.
Other examples are:
admittedly definitely indubitably of course surely
assuredly evidently inevitably patently unarguably
avowedly incontestably manifestly perhaps unavoidably
certainly incontrovertibly maybe plainly undeniably
clearly indeed necessarily probably undoubtedly
decidedly indisputably obviously really unquestionably
As in, e.g., That is indisputably false / plainly correct / undeniably possible / decidedly
unlikely etc.
modal adjectives
There were examples above to which we can add
absolute
possible
certain
potential
clear
probable
complete
total
definite
unlikely
likely
These adjectives modify modal and other nouns as in, e.g.
There's a clear chance / a possible issue / a total impossibility / a definite opportunity
/ a potential problem etc.
modal nouns
There were examples above using possibility, chance and likelihood to which we can
add opportunity and certainty but almost no others. As was noted, these are almost
always (but not always) modified in some way as in e.g.
There's a complete certainty / outside likelihood / definite opportunity etc.

finite clauses
As we saw with the examples using tend and assume, a number of verbs in finite clauses can
be used to express epistemic modality. Many of these verbs act as copular forms and include
but are not confined to:

 They suspected she was the thief

 I assume he's coming
 We think it's going to be OK
 It appears to be the part we want
 I imagine it'll be late
 I guess he's her brother

Vague language

In addition to all of the above, English has a number of ways to express vagueness. For
example, we can say Thirty people came to the party or we can hedge our bets and say
something like Around thirty came or Near enough thirty people came etc. Here are examples
of vague language. Can you classify them?
Click here when you have a mental list of three categories.

1. I want to get some eggs, milk and other breakfast stuff.

2. There are seats for up to twenty people here.
3. Pass me the thingy on the left.
4. It's got a certain je ne sais quoi about it.
5. I don't want to get people into rows and the like.
6. There are over twenty of them.
 Teaching this area

This is an area at which learners of the language tend to fall into two camps: those who
preface all remarks with Perhaps or Maybe and sound overly tentative and unsure and those
who fail to use the language of uncertainty effectively to soften what they say. It therefore
demands our attention.

As we saw above, the area is complex and there is a range of ways to express certainty and
uncertainty and to hedge. We can, if we are not careful, overwhelm our learners so the area
needs to be approached piecemeal, one or two structures at a time.

raising awareness

A simple approach is to start with recognition of the speaker's level of certainty. Like this:

1. For modal auxiliary verbs:

Put a tick in the right box.

Statement Sure Maybe Very unsure

That will be the postman at the
door.
That could be the postman at the
door.
That might be the postman at the
door.

2. For verbs:

Statement Sure Maybe Very unsure

I assume he's coming.
I know he's coming.
I think he's coming.
I suspect he's coming.

3. For adverbs:

Statement Sure Maybe Very unsure

 He's probably here already.
He's certainly here already.
He's possibly here already.
He's definitely here already.

The same kind of approach can, clearly, be taken for the other strategies in the table above.

For vague language we can take similar awareness-raising approaches. For example,

1. For quantities

Statement 20-70 40-60 49-51

Around 50.
Nearly 50.
Less than 65.
Over 40.

2. For placeholders

The glass
thingy.
The green
whatsitsname
.
The round
doobrie.

3. For list completions

Which endings are other stuff some other lots of other some other things
possible? done. people. stuff. done.
I need to get some
shopping and
He brought his friends
and
She got her hair and
They used my car and

noticing
Almost all texts and dialogues (if they are reasonably authentic) will contain
examples. Advertising is a particularly rich source. For example:

1. What are you actually getting?

Up to 20% off! Over 50 in every packet! More than 20 different uses!
2. Highlighting examples helps at first to get people alert to the types of language.
I had a great birthday party. All my friends from Uni and Margate came and the
family were there, too, as well as some other people I didn't know. There might have
been as many as forty of us but certainly more than 30. We had planned on food for
up to 25 but knew there was a good chance we'd have to get a bit more in. I didn't see
your brother but it's perfectly possible he was there, isn't it? After all, he usually
doesn't miss a good opportunity for free food so I assume he was there. It seems
everyone else was!

practising

1. Rephrasing is helpful. For example:

Over fifty but not as many as 60 can be rephrased as: at least fifty
It's an object whose name I don't know for opening tins can be rephrased as: the thingy
to open tins
I am only 20% sure he is here can be rephrased as: he might be here
I am almost sure it is possible can be rephrased as: it should be possible
2. Varying the expressions to see what effect it has is also helpful. For example:
All my friends from Uni and Margate came and the family were there, too, as well as
some other people I didn't know / some others / a few mates. There might have been
more than / as many as / over / nearly forty of us but certainly fewer than 50 / more
than 30 / over 25 / not more than 60. We had planned on food for up to / nearly /
almost / approximately 25 but knew there was some chance / a good chance / a strong
possibility / a fair likelihood we'd have to get lots / a bit / some more in. I didn't see
your brother but it's perfectly possible / there's a reasonable chance / there's an
outside chance he was there. After all, he rarely / never / barely ever misses a good
opportunity / easy chance / for free food so I assume / guess / imagine / get the feeling
he might have been / could have been / must have been there. It seems / is certain that
/ appears / is clear that everyone else was!
3. Using realia in lessons can be productive if you are sure that the class don't know the
proper words for them. That means they are forced into using placeholders to refer to
them. Commercial catalogues are a good source of pictures if you can't lay your
hands on the objects.
4. Another practice routine is to ask for opinions in areas where people have very little
experience. For example,
How do you think the Inuit spend the summers?
What would you do on holiday in Guatemala?
Where would you buy X in country Y?
and so on.
This will work much better if:
1. You have presented and practised some of the hedging strategies covered
above.
2. You insist on the use of at least two of them in every response.
3. You forbid all comments beginning with perhaps or maybe. You can ban the
words altogether, of course.
 Academic English

If your learners are studying English for Academic Purposes, they will need to work hard on
getting the right tone in what they write. There is a convention, for example, that we rarely
write It is certainly obvious that ... preferring, in academic language, something like It seems
strongly arguable that ... . Stating that something is true simply challenges the reader to
disagree or think of a counter example.
This is not the place for more detail but the same strategies that have been outlined here for
spoken language will apply equally to formal, written prose.
This is especially true for the use of modal auxiliary verbs, modal nouns, adjectives and
adverbs and the use of appropriately modest copular verbs, replacing the certain be with less
assertive verbs such as seem.

There is a separate language analysis guide on this site to epistemic modality which considers
the area of expressions of likelihood.

There a short test on some of this if you want to do it.

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