Financial Model - Hotel
Financial Model - Hotel
Client: DARP
Subject: Financial Model - Makkah
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Project: Business Cases - Renovate and Accommodation
Client: DARP
Subject: Financial Model - Makkah
Dashboard
5 Star Hotel 4 Star Hotel 3 Star Hotel 2 Star Hotel 1 Star Hotel Unrated Class 5 Star Hotel 4 Star Hotel 3 Star Hotel 2 Star Hotel 1 Star Hotel 5 Star Hotel 4 Star Hotel 3 Star Hotel 2 Star Hotel 1 Star Hotel
Demand Keys Per Interval (Avg) 112,228 103,980 60,430 34,369 7,623 152,736 No of Keys per Hotel (Average) 1,260 1,127 1,050 700 560 ADR 820 648 529 433 357
Room Revenue
Supply (Existing Keys) 91,603 53,835 188,974 95,724 2,659 581,487 ADR 820 648 529 433 357 Revenue Assumptions
Occupancy 73% 72% 82% 88% 90%
Visitors Per Key 2.08 2.31 2.66 2.88 3.21 3.35 Occupancy (Avg) 73% 72% 82% 88% 90% F&B income (% of Room Revenue) 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Demand Visitors Per Interval (Avg) 233,435 240,194 160,743 98,984 24,469 510,903 Rev PAR 602 467 434 381 321 Other income (% of Room Revenue) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Gap (20,625) (50,145) 128,544 61,355 (4,964) 428,751 Investment Highlights Operational Expenses
Departmental expenses (% of Total Revenue) 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Assumptions
Source: Existing Keys and Hotel Information - SCTH Capex (Avg)* ### 1,109,492,620 505,236,580 465,209,080 341,606,920 Undistributed Cost (% of Total Revenue) 34% 34% 34% 34% 34%
Capex ( in case of Land Leased) Land Acquisition cost (Charged on Land Area) 30,000 25,000 20,000 10,000 9,000
Total Build Up Area (sqm) 142,800 128,800 73,500 84,000 67,200 Land Lease Rentals (% of Land Price) in case leased. 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Required Hotels - Makkah Financial Viability Analysis Results Building Infrastructure cost ( Charged on Land Area) 2,865 2,865 2,865 2,865 2,865
ROI 5% 4% 12% 6% 5% Construction Cost (CC) - Building BUA 9,000 7,500 5,700 4,500 4,000
500,000 Capex Assumptions
ROI (in case of Land Leased) Construction Cost (CC) - Parking BUA 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800
400,000 IRR 10% 8% 19% 11% 10% Project Soft Cost (% of CC) 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
IRR ( in case of Land Leased) Project contingency Cost (% of CC and Soft Cost) 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
300,000 Payback Period (Years) 11 11 10 11 11 Furniture & Fixtures % of Building Cost 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%
200,000 Payback Period (Years) (in case of Land Leased) Capitalization Rate Exit Yield 8.50% 8.50% 8.50% 8.50% 8.50%
Profitability Analysis
100,000 Avg Revenue in SR 389,147,819 270,325,553 233,638,421 136,484,741 91,901,348 WACC 8.50% 8.50% 8.50% 8.50% 8.50%
-
Gross Profit Margin 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
5 Star Hotel 4 Star Hotel 3 Star Hotel 2 Star Hotel 1 Star Hotel Unrated Class EBITDA Margin 31% 30% 32% 32% 32%
(100,000) Net Profit Margin 18% 17% 25% 21% 20%
Net Profit Margin (in case of Land Leased)
Land Details
Land Ownership Leased Leased Leased Leased Leased
Land Area in sqm per hotel 12,000 11,500 7,500 10,000 8,000
Build Up Area (sqm) per hotel – Building 126,000 112,700 63,000 70,000 56,000
Avg BUA per key (sqm) 100 100 60 100 100
Project: Business Cases - Renovate and Accommodation
Client: DARP
Subject : Financial Model - 5 Star Hotel - Makkah
Construction Peri
2020
Income Statement
GP Margin 69.8%
EBITDA Margin 30.8%
EBIT Margin 20.3%
NP Margin 18.4%
ROI 5.1%
Valuation Results
EIRR % 9.0%
EIRR % 9.0%
1
(1)
Assumptions - Input
Revenue Assumptions
Capex Assumptions
Land Leased
Acquistion cost (Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 30,000
Infrastructure cost ( Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 2,865
Construction Cost (CC) - Building BUA SR per sqm 9,000
Construction Cost (CC) - Parking BUA SR per sqm 3,200
Useful lives
Building 3% 35
Furniture and Fixtures 10% 10
Timing of Outflow
Land % 100%
Building % 0%
Furniture and Fixtures % 100%
Project Financing
Valuation Assumptions
Cost of Equity (REIT industry)
Risk free rate % 2.09%
Beta (Real Estate in KSA) No. 0.99
Market Return in KSA % 12.00%
Cost of Capital
Cost of Equity % 8.33%
Cost of Debt % 1.24%
WACC % 9.57%
Workings
Revenue
Operational Cost
Departmental Expenses
Direct Cost - Rooms SR -
Direct Cost - F&B SR -
Direct Cost - Other SR -
Total Departmental Expenses SR -
Capital Expenditure
Opening balance SR
Loan received during the year 441,607,755 -
Loan repaid during the year SR -
Closing balance SR -
1 1 1 1 1 1
- - - - - -
(0.02) (1.52) 18.04 15.68 12.81 10.90
- - - - - -
Leased
Owned
95,020,800
64,139,040
18,308,680
1,453,608,520
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
50.00% 50.00%
12,205,786 6,102,893
18,000,000 18,000,000
- - - - - -
18,000,000 18,000,000 - - - -
20,628,000 13,752,000 - - - -
680,400,000 453,600,000 - - - -
32,256,000 21,504,000 - - - -
712,656,000 475,104,000 - - - -
57,012,480 38,008,320 - - - -
38,483,424 25,655,616 - - - -
828,779,904 552,519,936 - - - -
- - 2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166
858,985,690 576,622,829 2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166
1 1 1 1
- - - -
8.97 7.16 5.38 3.99
- - - -
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166
2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166 2,302,166
Construction Peri
2020
Income Statement
GP Margin 69.8%
EBITDA Margin 30.0%
EBIT Margin 18.6%
NP Margin 16.6%
ROI 4.2%
Valuation Results
EIRR % 6.5%
EIRR % 6.5%
1
(1)
Assumptions - Input
Revenue Assumptions
Capex Assumptions
Land Leased
Acquistion cost (Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 25,000
Infrastructure cost ( Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 2,865
Construction Cost (CC) - Building BUA SR per sqm 7,500
Construction Cost (CC) - Parking BUA SR per sqm 3,100
Useful lives
Building 3% 35
Furniture and Fixtures 10% 10
Timing of Outflow
Land % 100%
Building % 0%
Furniture and Fixtures % 100%
Project Financing
Valuation Assumptions
Cost of Equity (REIT industry)
Risk free rate % 2.09%
Beta (Real Estate in KSA) No. 0.99
Market Return in KSA % 12.00%
Cost of Capital
Cost of Equity % 8.33%
Cost of Debt % 1.24%
WACC % 9.57%
Workings
Revenue
Operational Cost
Departmental Expenses
Direct Cost - Rooms SR -
Direct Cost - F&B SR -
Direct Cost - Other SR -
Total Departmental Expenses SR -
Capital Expenditure
Opening balance SR
Loan received during the year 337,040,022 -
Loan repaid during the year SR -
Closing balance SR -
1 1 1 1 1 1
- - - - - -
(0.02) (1.52) 20.59 17.97 14.73 12.65
- - - - - -
Leased
Owned
71,612,800
48,338,640
18,308,680
1,109,492,620
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
50.00% 50.00%
12,205,786 6,102,893
14,375,000 14,375,000
- - - - - -
14,375,000 14,375,000 - - - -
19,768,500 13,179,000 - - - -
507,150,000 338,100,000 - - - -
29,946,000 19,964,000 - - - -
537,096,000 358,064,000 - - - -
42,967,680 28,645,120 - - - -
29,003,184 19,335,456 - - - -
628,835,364 419,223,576 - - - -
- - 1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765
655,416,150 439,701,469 1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765
1 1 1 1
- - - -
10.52 8.54 6.56 5.06
- - - -
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765
1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765 1,746,765
Construction Peri
2020
Income Statement
GP Margin 69.8%
EBITDA Margin 32.3%
EBIT Margin 26.5%
NP Margin 25.0%
ROI 11.6%
Valuation Results
EIRR % 21.4%
EIRR % 21.4%
1
(1)
Assumptions - Input
Revenue Assumptions
Capex Assumptions
Land Leased
Acquistion cost (Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 20,000
Infrastructure cost ( Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 2,865
Construction Cost (CC) - Building BUA SR per sqm 5,700
Construction Cost (CC) - Parking BUA SR per sqm 3,000
Useful lives
Building 3% 35
Furniture and Fixtures 10% 10
Timing of Outflow
Land % 100%
Building % 0%
Furniture and Fixtures % 100%
Project Financing
Valuation Assumptions
Cost of Equity (REIT industry)
Risk free rate % 2.09%
Beta (Real Estate in KSA) No. 0.99
Market Return in KSA % 12.00%
Cost of Capital
Cost of Equity % 8.33%
Cost of Debt % 1.24%
WACC % 9.57%
Workings
Revenue
Operational Cost
Departmental Expenses
Direct Cost - Rooms SR -
Direct Cost - F&B SR -
Direct Cost - Other SR -
Total Departmental Expenses SR -
Capital Expenditure
Opening balance SR
Loan received during the year 153,428,685 -
Loan repaid during the year SR -
Closing balance SR -
1 1 1 1 1 1
- - - - - -
(0.03) (1.53) 9.30 7.74 5.99 4.67
- - - - - -
Leased
Owned
31,248,000
21,092,400
18,308,680
505,236,580
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
50.00% 50.00%
12,205,786 6,102,893
7,500,000 7,500,000
- - - - - -
7,500,000 7,500,000 - - - -
12,892,500 8,595,000 - - - -
215,460,000 143,640,000 - - - -
18,900,000 12,600,000 - - - -
234,360,000 156,240,000 - - - -
18,748,800 12,499,200 - - - -
12,655,440 8,436,960 - - - -
278,656,740 185,771,160 - - - -
- - 774,047 774,047 774,047 774,047
298,362,526 199,374,053 774,047 774,047 774,047 774,047
1 1 1 -
- - - 1
3.38 2.17 1.04 0.04
- - - 0.04
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
774,047 774,047 774,047 774,047
774,047 774,047 774,047 774,047
Construction Peri
2020
Income Statement
GP Margin 69.8%
EBITDA Margin 31.8%
EBIT Margin 22.6%
NP Margin 20.8%
ROI 6.2%
Valuation Results
EIRR % 10.6%
EIRR % 10.6%
1
(1)
Assumptions - Input
Revenue Assumptions
Capex Assumptions
Land Leased
Acquistion cost (Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 10,000
Infrastructure cost ( Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 2,865
Construction Cost (CC) - Building BUA SR per sqm 4,500
Construction Cost (CC) - Parking BUA SR per sqm 2,900
Useful lives
Building 3% 35
Furniture and Fixtures 10% 10
Timing of Outflow
Land % 100%
Building % 0%
Furniture and Fixtures % 100%
Project Financing
Valuation Assumptions
Cost of Equity (REIT industry)
Risk free rate % 2.09%
Beta (Real Estate in KSA) No. 0.99
Market Return in KSA % 12.00%
Cost of Capital
Cost of Equity % 8.33%
Cost of Debt % 1.24%
WACC % 9.57%
Workings
Revenue
Operational Cost
Departmental Expenses
Direct Cost - Rooms SR -
Direct Cost - F&B SR -
Direct Cost - Other SR -
Total Departmental Expenses SR -
Capital Expenditure
Opening balance SR
Loan received during the year 141,290,325 -
Loan repaid during the year SR -
Closing balance SR -
1 1 1 1 1 1
- - - - - -
(0.02) (1.53) 14.24 12.51 10.35 8.88
- - - - - -
Leased
Owned
28,448,000
19,202,400
18,308,680
465,209,080
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
50.00% 50.00%
12,205,786 6,102,893
5,000,000 5,000,000
- - - - - -
5,000,000 5,000,000 - - - -
17,190,000 11,460,000 - - - -
189,000,000 126,000,000 - - - -
24,360,000 16,240,000 - - - -
213,360,000 142,240,000 - - - -
17,068,800 11,379,200 - - - -
11,521,440 7,680,960 - - - -
259,140,240 172,760,160 - - - -
- - 719,834 719,834 719,834 719,834
276,346,026 183,863,053 719,834 719,834 719,834 719,834
1 1 1 1
- - - -
7.35 5.87 4.38 3.17
- - - -
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
719,834 719,834 719,834 719,834
719,834 719,834 719,834 719,834
Construction Peri
2020
Income Statement
GP Margin 69.8%
EBITDA Margin 31.6%
EBIT Margin 21.7%
NP Margin 19.8%
ROI 5.4%
Valuation Results
EIRR % 8.6%
EIRR % 8.6%
1
(1)
Assumptions - Input
Revenue Assumptions
Capex Assumptions
Land Leased
Acquistion cost (Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 9,000
Infrastructure cost ( Charged on Land Area) SR per sqm 2,865
Construction Cost (CC) - Building BUA SR per sqm 4,000
Construction Cost (CC) - Parking BUA SR per sqm 2,800
Useful lives
Building 3% 35
Furniture and Fixtures 10% 10
Timing of Outflow
Land % 100%
Building % 0%
Furniture and Fixtures % 100%
Project Financing
Valuation Assumptions
Cost of Equity (REIT industry)
Risk free rate % 2.09%
Beta (Real Estate in KSA) No. 0.99
Market Return in KSA % 12.00%
Cost of Capital
Cost of Equity % 8.33%
Cost of Debt % 1.24%
WACC % 9.57%
Workings
Revenue
Operational Cost
Departmental Expenses
Direct Cost - Rooms SR -
Direct Cost - F&B SR -
Direct Cost - Other SR -
Total Departmental Expenses SR -
Capital Expenditure
Opening balance SR
Loan received during the year 103,732,069 -
Loan repaid during the year SR -
Closing balance SR -
1 1 1 1 1 1
- - - - - -
(0.02) (1.54) 15.94 14.03 11.66 10.08
- - - - - -
Leased
Owned
20,428,800
13,789,440
18,308,680
341,606,920
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
60% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
50.00% 50.00%
12,205,786 6,102,893
3,600,000 3,600,000
- - - - - -
3,600,000 3,600,000 - - - -
13,752,000 9,168,000 - - - -
134,400,000 89,600,000 - - - -
18,816,000 12,544,000 - - - -
153,216,000 102,144,000 - - - -
12,257,280 8,171,520 - - - -
8,273,664 5,515,776 - - - -
187,498,944 124,999,296 - - - -
- - 520,830 520,830 520,830 520,830
203,304,730 134,702,189 520,830 520,830 520,830 520,830
1 1 1 1
- - - -
8.44 6.86 5.26 3.99
- - - -
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100%
4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
520,830 520,830 520,830 520,830
520,830 520,830 520,830 520,830
Unrated 70537.6
Unrated 107200
Unrated 107200
Unrated (36,662)
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16.45 16.45 16.45 16.45
8,800,000 11,500,000 15,000,000 16,073,754
1.23 1.61 2.10 2.25
Addition in Demand
2020 2021 2022 2023
3% 3% 3% 3%
36,131 47,217 61,587 65,995
21,786 28,470 37,135 39,793
78,779 102,950 134,283 143,895
36,003 47,049 61,369 65,762
148,363 193,883 252,892 270,994
- - - -
- - - -
321,062 419,569 547,264 586,439
581,485 1,001,054 1,548,319 2,134,758
- - 4,200 -
309,523 309,523 313,723 313,723
- - 4,200 -
416,723 416,723 420,923 420,923
Cummulative
2020 2021 2022 2023
39,923 39,923 43,151 43,151
24,506 24,506 25,478 25,478
77,897 77,897 77,897 77,897
33,223 33,223 33,223 33,223
133,974 133,974 133,974 133,974
- - - -
- - - -
309,523 309,523 313,723 313,723
Shortage
2020 2021 2022 2023
(3,792) 7,294 18,436 22,844
(2,720) 3,964 11,657 14,315
882 25,053 56,386 65,998
2,780 13,826 28,146 32,539
14,389 59,909 118,918 137,020
- - - -
- - - -
11,539 110,046 233,541 272,716
(37,561) 72,485 306,027 578,743
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16.45 16.45 16.45 16.45 16.45
17,225,121 18,459,732 19,783,631 21,203,298 22,725,687
2.41 2.59 2.77 2.97 3.18
- - - - -
313,723 313,723 313,723 313,723 313,723
- - - - -
420,923 420,923 420,923 420,923 420,923
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
43,151 43,151 43,151 43,151 43,151
25,478 25,478 25,478 25,478 25,478
77,897 77,897 77,897 77,897 77,897
33,223 33,223 33,223 33,223 33,223
133,974 133,974 133,974 133,974 133,974
- - - - -
- - - - -
313,723 313,723 313,723 313,723 313,723
- - - -
313,723 313,723 313,723 313,723
- - - -
420,923 420,923 420,923 420,923
2029 2030 2031 2032
43,151 43,151 43,151 43,151
25,478 25,478 25,478 25,478
77,897 77,897 77,897 77,897
33,223 33,223 33,223 33,223
133,974 133,974 133,974 133,974
- - - -
- - - -
313,723 313,723 313,723 313,723
754,299.73
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