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CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

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 NATIONAL SECURITY
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CPEC at Three: Mapping

Progress, Stakeholders and
Sustainability
Prateek Joshi

Joshi, P. (2018) CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and

Sustainability. National Security. (Online) 1 (1), pp. 55-83.

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stake-
holders and Sustainability

Prateek Joshi*

Abstract
It has been three years since the inception of China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC). Billed as a ‘game changer’ for Pakistan’s economy as well as its
broader geo-economic footing in Asia, it becomes imperative to map the corri-
dor’s progress holistically. However, the enquiry gets complicated not only due to
the nature of Chinese funding of these projects, but also due to lack of data on
project funding and differences among the stakeholders given the political setup
in Pakistan. This, in turn fails to bring out an accurate analysis of how CPEC shall
fare for Pakistan. With such grey areas as constraints, the paper attempts to pre-
sent a holistic analysis on CPEC from the available data.

L aunched in 2015, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) added a

new dimension to the Sino-Pak strategic relationship through a series of
grandiose projects that include power plants, transport corridors and an
industrial belt spanning from Kashgar in Xinjiang to the port of Gwadar on the
Arabian Sea. The projected aim is the intermeshing of the politico-economic
destinies of Pakistan with that of China, and further use geography to link it by
road and railways to Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan, and beyond. Initially
pegged at $46 billion, the CPEC swelled up to an estimated $62 billion by late
2016 with the availability of additional financing from China.
The CPEC can be broadly divided into three phases: namely, the Short
Term (to be completed by 2020), Middle Term (to be completed by 2025) and
Long Term Phase (to be completed by 2030). Broadly, it consists of two types
of projects, namely power generation, and infrastructure (which includes
*Prateek Joshi, Research Associate, Vivekananda International Foundation.

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

development of Gwadar port, industrial zones, and mass transit projects). The
energy projects are expected to be completed in the Short Term phase (by
2020), major infrastructure by 2025, and the remaining schemes and CPEC is
expected to take its full operational shape by 2030.
The Chinese geostrategic aims notwithstanding, the more prominent
questions revolve around how the corridor fits into Pakistan’s developmental
trajectory. The corridor’s sustainability has been subjected to numerous
studies by think tanks and financial institutions across the world, including
scrutiny by Indian analysts. While these reports have their significance, this
paper specifically looks into the Pakistani narrative to understand how the
CPEC is progressing, how Pakistanis view the progress, the issues of sustaina-
bility, the nature of Chinese capital inflows and the stakeholders’ perceptions.
Based on official data, this article – by exclusively drawing from research
reports of Pakistani newspapers, economists and veteran journalists – at-
tempts to address some fundamental questions that have haunted the CPEC,
namely: the progress made in the CPEC’s major projects; how do they fare in
terms of profitability and repayment liability to China; the expectations of the
different stake-holders from the CPEC – the civilian leadership, the military,
the Pakistani citizenry and the business community. It also tries to understand
the actual volume and nature of Chinese investments and how they have been
recorded in the nation’s Balance of Payments accounts. Finally, the article
attempts to assess the CPEC from the perspective of the sustainability of the
Pakistani economy.
CPEC’s Major Projects
At present, the complete break-up of data on Chinese capital going
into infrastructure is yet to be made available (given the temporal expanse of
several projects till 2030), except the early harvest and some middle term
projects. Therefore, this section stresses on the progress of the early harvest
projects, especially those related to the $1.3 billion expansion of the
Karakoram Highway (KKH), the ML-1 railway line worth $8.1 billion, the $3 bil-
lion Peshawar-Karachi motorway, the $2 billion Karachi Circular Railway, and
Gwadar Port.

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 Prateek Joshi

Image Source: https://walizahid.com/2015/02/cpec-fact-sheet-2013-2018/

1. Karachi-Peshawar Main Line (ML-1) Railway

ML-1 first came in the news after the first Joint Cooperation Commit-
tee (JCC) meeting in August 2013 unveiled the proposal some months after
Nawaz Sharif took charge as the Prime Minister and close to two years before
the CPEC was officially launched. The proposal envisaged a “high-speed rail
line from Karachi to Peshawar, with a design speed of 250 kilometres per hour
and length of 1,681 km” (Hussain, 2018). In the JCC meeting in the following
year, “a Chinese consultant was named to conduct a joint feasibility study of
the ML1”, which paved the way for its induction in CPEC (however, the cost
was not included in the original $46 billion estimate) (Hussain, 2018). The
Chinese concern of accurately determining the costs, initially raised during the
third JCC, was carried over to the following JCC meetings. Later, a senior
working group was created “to discuss the modalities and terms of financing”
of the project to address the Chinese concerns about the terms of financing
(Hussain, 2018). In May 2016, the two nations signed financing agreements

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

during the China visit of Ahsan Iqbal, the Minister for Planning, Development
and Reform, after the loan was approved by the State Council of PRC.
Also, after the conclusion of the sixth JCC meeting, it was announced
that China would provide $5.5 billion funding for ML-1, and the remaining $2.5
billion would be taken as loan from the Asian Development Bank, since
Pakistan is a member of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (a
programme established by Asia Development Bank). As news of negotiations
between the Pakistani bureaucrats and the ADB officials over long-term
concessionary loan for the project trickled in, the Planning Minister, in a
surprising announcement, stated that Pakistan had refused the ADB funding
due to Chinese objections and that the Chinese had agreed to single-handedly
to finance the project (Kiani, 2018).
By November 2017, when the seventh JCC meeting came up, the
financial terms were expected to have been approved since “design, joint fea-
sibility, implementation, and coordination mechanism” had been put in place
(Husain, 2017). More than four years had passed since ML-1’s conception. The
fact that it is taking so long to negotiate the financing terms highlights China’s
scepticism regarding the financing of the project. Nevertheless, the Pakistani
side is still pushing the case for inclusion in CPEC.
2. Major Motorways
In 2016, $4.2 billion worth of agreements were signed on the CPEC in-
frastructure projects, the first being the $2.9 billion 392 km long Multan-
Sukkur section of the proposed Karachi-Peshawar motorway. The second one
was $1.3 billion for Thakot-Havelian stretch of the Karakoram Highway in Khy-
ber Pakhtunkhwa (the amount shall be repaid at a concessionary rate of 1.6
per cent). Two Chinese firms engaged in these projects were offered import
concessions worth Rs. 30 billion (Rana, 2016). The ambitious Multan Sukkur
stretch includes over 50 bridges, rest areas, “11 interchanges, ten flyovers and
426 underpasses” and tentatively, its completion is planned for the latter half
of 2019 (Daily Times, 2017). Described as the “largest transportation project
under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,” the project has employed 1,700
Chinese and 22,000 Pakistani workers (Xinhua, 2018).
The 120-kilometre long Thakot Havelian section is among the projects
that are moving at a fast pace. The China Exim Bank is the principal funding

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 Prateek Joshi

Map showing the KKH section of the CPEC (Thakot Raikot Section)

Image Source: http://cpec.gov.pk/maps

agency for 90 percent of this stretch with construction work commencing in
2016. It is expected to be complete by 2020 (Husain, 2017). Since the loan was
offered on concessionary terms, the Finance Minister led Economic Coordina-
tion Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet “decided to grant the contracts for
engineering design, procurements and construction” to the Chinese firms
alone, ruling out any scope for competitive bidding (Rana, 2015).
CPEC: Proposed Infrastructure Upgradation
1. Karachi Circular Railway
While mega-projects like ML-1 faced delays over financing terms, the
$2 billion Karachi Circular Railway (KCR) – which found its way into the CPEC
after an in-principle approval in 2016 – was caught in a controversy between
the Sindh administration and the Railways Ministry that escalated into a
political tussle between Sindh province and Islamabad. The project was stated
to be completed with Japanese assistance after the JICA’s approval had been

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

made a part of the CPEC. The Prime Minister led Executive Committee of
National Economic Council (ECNEC) approved the revival of the KCR in
October 2017. It involves 43 kilometres of track, including “construction of 24
stations, procurement of 162 locomotives” aimed to cater to over 500,000
passengers a day. Problems resurfaced regarding a technical issue, since a sec-
tion of ML-1 overlaps with the KCR (The Tribune, 2017). In January, the federal
government conveyed to the Sindh administration “that the Chinese funding
of $2 billion for the project was not possible in the immediate future” and
advised it to look for funding on its own. Provincial rivalries resurfaced after
this episode, with the Sindh government accusing the ‘Punjabi dominated’
establishment of discrimination, since the project had earlier been agreed to
be financed as part of the CPEC (Subohi, 2018).
2. Gwadar Port
It must be noted that Gwadar Port’s operations came under the control
of a state-owned Chinese company in 2013, two years before CPEC’s official
launch, thereby confirming the port’s strategic importance to China (The Ex-
press Tribune, 2013). Also described as CPEC’s critical node, the indispensabil-
ity attached to Gwadar is evident from the 12 projects stated to come up in the
area. These include an international airport, expressway, a free zone, hospital,
a steel park, a coal power plant and even a master-plan with the more substan-
tial goal to transform the port into an international transit hub at par with
Dubai or Singapore, with $1 billion as a provisional loan from China. Given the
importance attached, work is progressing commensurately with $500 million
pledged by Beijing as grants/ interest-free loans (Jorgic, 2017). A $140 million
dedicated expressway (Gwadar East Bay Expressway) would soon be
operational, and the amount spent has been converted into an interest-free
loan (The News, 2015).
For the Gwadar International Airport, China converted a $230 million
loan into a grant, marking a departure from China’s “usual approach in other
countries,” especially the way it eyes strategic port projects (Jorgic, 2017).
However, in return, the Shipping Ministry informed the Senate that 91 per
cent of income generated from the Gwadar port would go to China for next 40
years (Khan, 2017). Chinese strategic designs regarding Balochistan have lately
been in the news and it was reported that China was eyeing the nearby Jiwani

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 Prateek Joshi

port as a military base (located between Gwadar and Chabahar port in Iran)
and had been in secret talks with Baloch separatists for stabilising the region.
The reports were later denied by China. Given China’s relationship with the
Afghan Taliban as an integral part of its Afghan policy, it would not be a
surprise if it is engaged in such activities in Balochistan.
While China’s maritime ambitions have become evident with the acqui-
sition of the Djibouti Military base and the takeover of Hambantota port, the
trend appears to be the same given the Chinese takeover of Gwadar port.
However, Beijing’s long-term strategy on Gwadar is still unfolding, though it
already has financial and management
control of the port. Overall, the CPEC,
While the CPEC was
if all projects go through, would tangibly visualized as a corridor
add to Pakistan’s infrastructural needs, connecting the two
especially with the upgraded highway
nations, it is the energy
networks and logistics facilities, even
though the railway projects are taking projects which constitute
longer than the usual time. Infrastruc- more than half of CPEC’s
ture development in the frontier zones
value.
are under progress (discussed later) un-
der the watch of the military’s agencies
and completion is expected as per their respective schedules.
Major Energy Projects
While the CPEC was visualized as a corridor connecting the two
nations, it is the energy projects which constitute more than half of CPEC’s
value. Faced with massive transmission and distribution losses, and an enor-
mous circular debt, Pakistan’s power sector is ailing for many years. The CPEC
aims to generate another 17,000 MW power (adding to the existing installed
capacity of 20000 MW), with half of the capacity slated to be generated by the
end of 2018, as energy projects are the mainstay of CPEC’s short-term plan.
Fourteen of these projects are valued over a billion dollars each, with five of
them touching $2 billion and above. While significant chunk of the electricity
generated would constitute of coal-fired power plants (followed by hydropow-
er projects), the CPEC has also diversified into wind energy and solar power
generation, although on a lower scale. Some 1400 MW of nonconventional

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

energy is planned to be generated under the CPEC projects. Again, gaps in da-
ta and absence of any energy sector audit have left analysts to draw from
various official data sources and interpretations by economists. While they
shed some light on power-generating machinery imports from China, the data
on balance of payments-- a concern relating to the energy sector, is an
altogether different aspect.
To begin with, all energy projects would be implemented in the
(Independent Power Producer) IPP Mode and would consist of a 75:25 debt to
equity setup (Husain, 2015). Rate of return charged on debt component is 4.5
per cent plus Libor (totalling around 6 per cent), in addition to 7 per cent
insurance premium to be charged by the China Export and Credit Insurance
Corporation. The rate of interest on equity is 17 per cent (Husain, 2015). The
loans for these would be taken by Chinese companies “against their balance
sheets,” and inflow into Pakistan would be either through FDI or machinery
purchases shown in current accounts, technically resulting in no liabilities for
Pakistan (Husain, 2017). In response to the criticism generated regarding the
insurance premium charged, the Chinese deputy head of mission took to Twit-
ter, clarifying that “7 per cent insurance fee is for 15-20 years but paid once,
only 0.3-0.5 [per cent], every year”, and defended the 6 per cent rate charged
on the debt as an international norm (Zhao, 2017).
While work on longer run projects is yet to take off, details released by
the Power and Water Ministry last year on eight early harvest projects worth
$12.54 billion with a combined capacity of 7880 MW raise a few questions. For
the major projects, including Hubco, Sahiwal, Port Qasim and Thar Coal and
others, a $9.5 billion debt has been raised by the Chinese power-sector inves-
tors from China itself (notably the Exim Bank and China Development Bank)
(Rana, 2017).The case of $1.6 billion Sahiwal power project alludes to the
ambiguity described above. The 1320 MW power project --the first to be
launched under CPEC-- after its completion a year ahead of schedule, report-
edly faced closure in April as per a report by The News. “The government
could not settle Rs. 20 billion in power dues of the project,” and had been pay-
ing partially despite the requirement of Rs. 10 billion monthly payment need-
ed, the report stated (Hasan, 2018).
In addition, the first phase of the $2 billion worth two unit Port Qasim
project has been completed in Karachi and is the second project to be

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 Prateek Joshi

completed. Its second phase too is on the verge of completion. Even hydel
sector projects, including the 720 MW Karot ($1.4 billion) and 870 MW Suki
Kinari ($2 billion) in KP, are under construction, and expect completion by
2021-22. With the exception of hydel projects as the ones listed above (having
6 per cent return on debt and 17 per cent internal rate of return) the return on
equity agreed for coal-fired power plants has been a matter of concern. The
rates vary from 24 per cent for Hubco project, 27.2 per cent on Port Qasim to
31 per cent for the Thar project (Rana, 2017).
Another contentious aspect --the local versus imported components of
the power projects-- needs to be analysed. This enables a look into how the
Pakistani local industries are being engaged in setting up of the power
projects. Data from last year’s Planning Ministry report shows that “material
for civil work - sand, cement, steel - and consumable items like diesel, paints,
major chunk of chemicals, gas required for power plants are procured locally.”
But, “the major part of material,” for the projects, consisting of “mechanical,
electrical equipment, cranes hydraulic turbines, boilers, generators, governors
system, main transformers, and GIS system”, is being imported from China
given its non-availability in the Pakistani market (Khan, 2017).
On the delivery aspect, even if the latest Pakistan Economic Survey’s
claim that the installed capacity has crossed 29,000 MW this year is accept-
ed , power supply gaps have actually grown (Mustafa, 2018) (Kiani, 2018). As
per data supplied by Ministry of Energy’s Power Division, “average electricity
shortfall stood at 4,530MW in July 2017 and remained almost unchanged at
4,559MW in first week of June 2018,” raising questions on the power sector’s
functioning. CPEC’s capacity addition has virtually been nullified, thereby rais-
ing the old debate that the malaise lay in transmission and distribution, and
not generation, which is CPEC’s mainstay (Kiani, 2018).
Repayment Estimates and Rising Debt
Overall, there have been concerns about the ability to generate the de-
sired returns. Noted Economist Farrukh Saleem estimated that in the first year
after completion the “payment that Pakistan will have to make will be $2.4
billion followed by an annual payment of $1.8 billion thereafter” (Saleem,

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

Power Projects under CPEC

S.no Major Projects Capacity (MW) Cost(million $)

2×660MW Coal-fired Power
1 1320 1980
Plants at Port Qasim Karachi

Suki Kinari Hydropower Sta-

2 tion, Naran,Khyber Pu- 870 1802
khtunkhwa

Sahiwal 2x660MW Coal-fired

3 1320 1600
Power Plant, Punjab

Engro Thar Block II 2×330MW

4 1320 2000
Coal fired Power Plant

TEL 1×330MW Mine Mouth

Lignite Fired Power Project at
Thar Block-II, Sindh, Pakistan

Thal Nova 1×330MW Mine

Mouth Lignite Fired Power
Project at Thar Block-II, Sindh,
Pakistan

Quaid-e-Azam 1000MW Solar

5 Park (Bahawalpur) Quaid-e- 1000 1300
Azam

SSRL Thar Coal Block-I 6.8

6 mtpa &SEC Mine Mouth Pow- 1320 3300
er Plant(2×660MW)

CPHGC 1,320MW Coal-fired

1320 1940
Power Plant, Hub,Balochistan

Two Transmission Lines

7 (Matiari to Lahore and Faisla- 3000
bad)

Source: http://cpec.gov.pk/energy

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 Prateek Joshi

2017). Comparing this with the average tariff on coal-based power plants of Rs.
8.3 per unit (calculated with an overestimated assumption of 85 per cent plant
efficiency), the natural question posed by Saleem is whether “the eight pow-
er\projects create a surplus of $2.4 billion during the first year, enabling Paki-
stan to pay the principal, interest and the insurance premium?” (Saleem, 2017)
In light of these realities, the calculation of Port Qasim’s efficiency alone as 42
per cent (estimated by Akhtar Ali), raises similar questions (Ali, 2018).
Another unusual development regarding the energy projects is the
introduction of security cess. In 2017, the National Electric Power Regulation
Authority (NEPRA, Pakistan’s power sector regulatory body), based on ECC’s
recommendations of September 2016 an-
Another unusual nounced that consumers would be charged
development a tariff (estimated about $155 million),
which would be one per cent of the “cost of
regarding the energy
19 power projects worth $15.56 billion un-
projects is the der the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
introduction of (CPEC) for 20-30 years on account of securi-
ty cost” (Kiani, 2017). Justifying the order,
security cess.
the NEPRA cited Article 10 of the CPEC
agreement which states that “the Pakistani
party shall take the necessary measures to ensure the safety of Chinese per-
sonnel and projects” (Kiani, 2017). The decision evoked sharp criticism since it
was argued that guaranteeing security of projects was the state’s basic re-
sponsibility and explicitly charging for such services, irrespective of the
amount, would send a wrong signal to the consumers. As a report in Dawn put
it, the charge would be in addition to the existing combination of four sur-
charges amounting to Rs. 3.50, tariff to “cover low recoveries, high losses, spe-
cial debt servicing, tariff equalisation across various distribution companies
and so on” (Kiani, 2017).
While scepticism prevails, the CPEC energy projects recently came
under fresh criticism in light of another coal-based energy project agreement
recently finalised by Islamabad with the Asian Development Bank to be set up
in Sindh. The 1,320 MW plant has a substantial price difference with those of
CPEC--- $0.587 million per MW (for Jamshoro project) versus $1.21 million per

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

MW (on average) for CPEC power projects and cost of generation difference
being 6.38 cents versus CPEC’s 8.34 cents (Ali, 2018).
With regards to the costs discussed above, some explanations have
been offered from official sources with rationales on the ability of the Pakistani
side to pay. Last year, Nadeem Javaid, advisor to the Prime Minister and the
Chief Economist, Government of Pakistan, stated “debt payments and profit
repatriation” would begin 2019 onwards. He estimated the amount to be
between $1.5-1.9 billion during 2019, which would rise to “$3-3.5 billion by the
following year”, peaking around $5 billion in 2022 (Jorgic, 2017). Regarding
Pakistan’s ability to pay, Javaid stated that “the kind of toll tax, rental fees that
the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8bn a year” (Jorgic, 2017). In
another instance, Dawn reported a Pakistani research firm’s estimate as $3-4
billion per year, totalling $90 billion repayments, including profits and loan
repayments (Siddiqui, 2017).
Understanding this in the con-
text of the state of Pakistani economy, ..the IMF and the Asian
the IMF and the Asian Development
Development Bank have
Bank have expressed scepticism over
Pakistan’s ability to generate a rate of expressed scepticism
return adequate to finance the project over Pakistan’s ability to
costs. Pakistani economy is character- generate a rate of return
ised by soaring domestic and external
adequate to finance the
debt, low foreign exchange reserves,
high current account deficit (touching project costs.
eight year high at 5 per cent of GDP in
first nine months of FY 2018, partly due to rising CPEC related imports), and a
weakening Rupee. According to IMF’s estimates, liabilities could spike up to
$144 billion in the coming five years, from the present level of $93 billion and
the Forex Reserves could decline from present $12 billion to around $7 billion
in 2023 (Haider, 2018). To top it, the circular debt of the energy sector crossed
Rs. 922 billion (close to $8 billion at present exchange rate), almost twice of
last November’s estimates by the finance experts, further putting pressure on
the energy sector. This is in addition to the high returns to be given to China in
the CPEC projects (Kiani, 2018). Nonetheless, the optimism on Pakistan’s abil-

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 Prateek Joshi

ity to pay rests on high returns CPEC is expected to generate, once all the pro-
jects come on stream.
The Stakeholders
1. Local Businesses and Industries
As the Chinese pattern of economic engagements with other emerging
economies has shown, the Sino-Pak ties are inherently skewed. Three-fourths
of Pakistani exports to China consist only of textiles and rice, whereas the
main component of the Chinese imports is high value added items, especially
electrical goods, electronics, and machinery. China presently occupies the
largest share in Pakistan’s total imports, amounting to 29 per cent of the total
value (Naqvi, 2017). Ever since CPEC was unveiled, the common concern
among the local industrial and traders was of being outcompeted by Chinese
trade and incoming firms due to quality and cost factors, Chinese procurement
policies and other trade-related issues. Besides rising maritime trade, the
up-gradation of KKH with better logistics facilities would enable a greater
volume of cheap Chinese imports into Pakistan, with further risk for Pakistan’s
local manufacturing. Media reports and a section of economists critical of the
CPEC have repeatedly raised the threat since the Pakistani industrial capacity
is no match to the scale of the Chinese industries entering the CPEC projects.
The local business community was distraught after the Finance Ministry
informed the National Assembly last year that the Chinese firms engaged in
infrastructure and energy sector were offered $1.35 billion exemptions on
customs duties and earnings through statutory orders (Kiani, 2017).
The Dawn, in a revealing article by Khurram Husain last July, published
what it claimed to be the original Long Term Plan (LTP) which the Chinese
planned to implement in Pakistan (Husain, 2017). The Chinese enterprises plan
to dominate the agriculture market, namely through direct operation of farms,
seed and fertiliser supply, food processing industries and logistics facilities.
Chinese industries have been encouraged to “‘[m]ake the most of the free cap-
ital and loans’ from various ministries of the Chinese Government as well as
the China Development Bank” (Husain, 2017). Another area of interest for the
Chinese is the textile industry, mainly “yarn and coarse cloth”. The LTP would
be directed to develop the Pakistani textile industry in such a fashion that the
nation becomes a key raw material supplier to Xinjiang’s textile industry

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

(Husain, 2017). While the Pakistani Government denied Dawn’s account, the
report did raise concerns over China’s intent behind the CPEC. Dawn raised the
issue as to whether the CPEC was structured in a manner that gives the Paki-
stani economy a subservient status, becoming essentially a primary material
supplier to Chinese industries. The threat gets amplified because 60 per cent
of Pakistan’s total exports comprise of
Dawn raised the issue textile yarn and cloth, and CPEC’s proposed
as to whether the reorientation of Pakistan’s textile sector
CPEC was structured into a low-end textile manufacturing base
to support Xinjiang’s high-end textile
in a manner that gives
industry, would further relegate Pakistan’s
the Pakistani textile sector.
economy a The other concern raised is regarding the
nine industrial parks which are to be set up
subservient status,
across Pakistan under CPEC (as approved
becoming essentially under the sixth JCC in 2017), including one
a primary material in Gilgit-Baltistan – dispelling the long-
supplier to Chinese standing view that the region had been ex-
cluded from CPEC. Further, 37 more SEZs
industries.
had been identified (Javed, 2018). For these
projects to benefit the nation, it has been highlighted that certain clarifications
and procedural requirements need to be in place. For instance, the issues of
technology transfer, skill set requirements and local procurement are not
settled. A comprehensive industrial policy which can ensure domestic interest
is yet to take shape, while the looming threat of Chinese ventures crowding
out local entrepreneurship has not been addressed.
Economists, civil society and local business lobbies have been demand-
ing that the government focus on inclusion, including skill development to
assist the workforce move away from low-skill employment, local content
requirement, technology transfer, and facilitation of high value-added
manufacturing (Chaudhary, 2017). The CPEC-driven enthusiasm also necessi-
tated the need to carry out the trade relationship under a revamped Free
Trade Agreement. Negotiations on the second FTA, which were ongoing since
2013 gave way to a new FTA in April 2018. It has also left the Pakistanis with

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 Prateek Joshi

grievances. Even after ten rounds of negotiations, local industry’s concerns

have not been accommodated. Over the last decade, since the first FTA in
2006 was signed, Pakistan’s exports have grown from $400 million to $1.7
billion, while imports from China have swelled from $1.8 billion to more than
$14 billion (Dawn, 2018). In the ongoing negotiations, the Pakistani side is
learnt to have offered 6,000 out 7,120 tariff lines on zero per cent duty (with
protection only to the textile sector) in a phased manner in fifteen years (Khan,
2018). The decision, besides hurting local businesses, is specifically bound to
hit agriculture and small-scale industries, which are not backed by institutional
lobbies, unlike manufacturing and traders associations which have strongly
voiced their opposition to any such move.
2. The Military’s Stakes
Unarguably, the Pakistani army has emerged as an active beneficiary of
CPEC. India’s opposition to the CPEC’s passage through the disputed territory
of Gilgit-Baltistan set the stage for the army to further justify its support for
the projects. The narrative popularised by the Pakistani army focuses on
alleged Indian threats in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, which in reality face
many deprivation due to structural factors endemic to Pakistan’s domestic po-
litical and administrative processes and policies. Pakistan Army’s claims of the
Indian attempts of sabotaging the corridor, news reports claiming the
presence of an Indian intelligence cell targeting CPEC and the Kulbhushan
Jadhav affair were added to the Army’s narrative. Simultaneously, the CPEC
has also catered to the army’s economic interests through its frontline
organisations such as the Frontier Work Organization, National Logistics Cell
and the Special Communications Organisation, whose roles have been elabo-
rately described in Ayesha Siddiqa’s Military Inc (Siddiqa, 2007).
Roughly a year before the CPEC was launched, Pakistani army began a
systematic crackdown on the militant organisations operating in the frontier
areas, primarily FATA, where the remnants of TTP still operated, launching
attacks even in metros like Karachi and Lahore. The Operation, known and
Zarb-e-azb, targeted such organisations and was aimed at sanitising the
hideouts as a pre-requisite for economic stability. This was followed by the
operation Radd-ul-Fasad in 2017 to flush out the remaining sleeper cells.

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

The army established the 15,000 troop Special Security Division (SSD), headed
by a Major General ranking officer, headquartered at Gilgit, mandated with the
responsibility of maintaining the security of Chinese workers. The government
has spent the initial amount of Rs. 23 billion from 2016 onwards (Gishkori,
2016). While the northern branch of the SSD is responsible for clockwise
surveillance from the Khunjerab border
to Rawalpindi, the southern branch co- The army established the
vers the area between Rawalpindi and 15,000 troop Special
Gwadar. Rs. 10 billion has been allocat-
Security Division (SSD),
ed for the SSD in this year’s budget as
well. To guard the maritime dimension headed by a Major
of CPEC, a special task force was set up General ranking officer,
comprising of “ships, fast attack craft,
headquartered at Gilgit,
aircraft, drones (unmanned aerial vehi-
cles), and surveillance assets”, along mandated with the
with the deployment of marines (The responsibility of
Dawn, 2018).
maintaining the security
Initially, Pakistan was interested
of Chinese workers.
in sharing these costs with China, but
Beijing refused to commit any amount
for security-related expenditure. Repeatedly, the ISPR, Army Chief, and senior
Pakistan army officials have used the CPEC to gain political legitimacy at a
time when the Panama Gate case and Nawaz Sharif’s dismissal were being
used by the PMLN to garner sympathy against Army’s vindictive stance
against its leader. In 2016, the CPEC was largely responsible for the
civil-military chasm which emerged over the administrative issues. It was
reported in various news channels that in light of the political infighting that
began over numerous issues related to CPEC – such as route alignment,
financing, capital outlay – the military establishment had grown sceptical and
sought a role in its administration through the establishment of a CPEC
authority. This was strongly resisted by the Sharif administration, especially
Planning Minister Ehsan Iqbal, who wanted the Ministry to act as the apex
body for CPEC (Rana, 2016). The issue faded, but if one goes by news reports,
this was evidence of either of the military establishment being apprehensive

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 Prateek Joshi

about CPEC being properly implemented by the civilian administration or

meeting Chinese concerns regarding the corridor.
On the economic front, the military is engaged in some of the strategi-
cally vital projects of CPEC, especially in the frontier areas. The National
Logistics Cell (NLC), along with the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) is
engaged in the construction of the 280 km long second phase of the
five-phase four-laning of Dera Ismail Khan to Hakla stretch of the CPEC’s
western route. The western route’s second stretch (worth 470 km), connecting
Hoshab and Sohrab, was completed by the FWO (Associated Press of
Pakistan, 2016). The FWO also completed the most important part of the
western route, or the M-8 motorway. The contract for widening the strategic
Jaglot- Skardu road also went to the FWO. The 216-kilometre long CPEC link
road in northern Pakistan, which would be constructed from Chitral, linking
Shandur and Gilgit, would likely go to FWO as well given the topography and
the work experiences.
The Army’s Special Communications Organisation, the nodal agency
for maintaining the communications infrastructure in Gilgit-Baltistan, is
responsible for laying the fibre optic cable from Rawalpindi to Khunjerab, as
well as for introducing 3G/4G networks in Gilgit-Baltistan. Similarly, the
National Logistics Cell, which Siddiqa describes as “the largest goods transpor-
tation company in the country”, took over the administration of Sost dry port
near China-Pakistan border, which oversees the overland border trade
between both the nations (Paul, 2014, Pamir Times, 2018). The NLC is
engaged in several other small logistics and engineering projects across the
nation as well. It also set up a technical institute in Gilgit for imparting
technical skills to the youth, with the expectation of fulfilling the demand for
skill-based jobs which the CPEC would generate. The scale of army’s economic
stakes in CPEC clearly shows that the corridor is well-integrated into the
military’s politico-economic interests.
3. Political Parties
The CPEC factor remains the most exploited theme in Pakistan’s
political discourse, given the way it was utilised to manipulate the domestic
audience and the clamour seems to have only intensified from 2015 onwards –
the year it was unveiled. In the context of the inter-province and inter-party

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

rivalries in provincial Pakistan, the nation’s principal political players --namely

the Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)
and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) -- used the project to further their
political ends.
For the PML, the CPEC is synonymous with its vision, since it was only
under Nawaz that the project was finally negotiated. The high expectations
appear in the budgets and the economic surveys, which have elevated the
CPEC to be an indispensable element of Pakistan’s economic destiny. There-
fore, the project would figure in its campaign in the general elections as well.
Protests emanated mostly from the political parties based in Balochistan and
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, chiefly the Imran Khan-led PTI, and Mahmud Achakzai’s
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, which accused the design of the corridor of
having an ethnic bias, since Punjab would be the greatest beneficiary from
CPEC. This is because of the ambiguities surrounding the western route, which
would traverse on the Balochistan-KP axis. Opponents based their concerns on
the lack of clarity regarding how the benefits would trickle into their respective
provinces. If the corridor is supposed to traverse through three different align-
ments, despite assurances from the Pakistani Government, there have been
no official announcements from the Chinese side over these routes. The oppo-
nents also raised an issue regarding the nature of roads being constructed on
different alignments. The eastern alignment consists of a six-lane expressway
suited for heavy trucks, unlike the western alignment, which was a two-lane
track unsuited for heavy traffic. The disparity was evident in the allocations for
the Public Sector Development Plan (PSDP) in 2015-16. The government has
allocated Rs 20 billion for the western route while earmarking a handsome Rs
110 billion for the eastern alignment, of which Rs. 5 billion is for building the
first few kilometres of the common route after which the different alignments
branch out (Kakar, 2016).
Imran Khan’s opposition to the PML N, which led to a three-month-
long agitation in Islamabad in September 2014 and even delayed President Xi’s
scheduled visit that month, is also accused of having delayed announcement
of CPEC. Xi Jinping finally arrived in Pakistan in April 2015 (Malik, 2017). Since
2015, the PTI is also advocating the changing of CPEC’s main alignment from
the east to ensure fair distribution of the corridor’s benefits. It coined the

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 Prateek Joshi

epithet China Punjab Economic Corridor. Despite having met the Chinese
ambassador twice specifically on CPEC, PTI’s opposition has not tapered
(Malik, 2017). Tensions were eased after all the provincial Chief Ministers had
been invited to China to attend the JCC meeting in December 2016 and several
provincial projects were “provisionally added to the CPEC portfolio.” Divisions,
however, have resurfaced time and again, although on a less frequent basis
(Rafiq, 2018).
Of all the political players, it is the PPP – during whose rule (2008-13)
the CPEC was initially negotiated by President Zardari in his 2013 China visit –
which has been the most vocal in claiming the credit, as a counter to ruling
PML-N’s narrative of CPEC being its flagship project (Business Recorder, 2018)
(Najam, 2017). In one of his speeches, Asif Zardari even traced CPEC’s origins
to Pakistan’s turn to become the strategic pivot to China under Zulfiqar Ali
Bhutto in 1960s when he was the foreign minister (The Express Tribune, 2017).
PML’s marketing of the CPEC has indeed overshadowed PPP’s role in the
earlier negotiations, and therefore the latter has taken every opportunity to
highlight its role, particularly when elections are round the corner.
4. The Citizens: Job Creation and Perceptions
While a mega project like the CPEC had all the reasons to make most
happy, its benefits to the citizenry has to be gauged from the available
opportunities, especially employment generated, for which official data has
been scanty and contradictory. It is not to say that the benefits from CPEC
have not led to employment generation – since the ongoing laying of
infrastructure and construction of power plans, besides employing Chinese
workers has also generated local jobs – but it is difficult to quantify the jobs
created. For instance, the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan stated in April that
CPEC related projects had generated 70,000 jobs in the last five years and aims
to generate 700,000 more by 2025 as work on other projects commences
(Achakzai, 2018). While this estimate has been confirmed by the Applied
Economics Research Centre, a Pakistani think tank researching on the nation’s
economy, the current estimate of 70,000 jobs based on official Pakistani claims
(Pakistan Today, 2018) would come under question. Contrarily, the Planning
Ministry at the same time stated that the CPEC had created 30,000 jobs, less
than half of what the Chinese Ambassador had claimed (Klasra, 2018).

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

A break-up of sector-wise job generation has been reported by the

Business Recorder, a Pakistani financial daily, which estimated 30,000 jobs
citing official records, and identified the power sector to be the highest job
generator (Jabri, 2018). Port Qasim power project was stated to have been the
highest employment generator with 5000 jobs, whereas 3,000 jobs each were
generated by Sahiwal and Zonergy Power Projects. This was followed by the
transportation and infrastructure sectors, which together generated around
13,000 jobs. This data does not specify the indirect number jobs generated.
This leads us to the second issue – the nature of jobs. The public feels
that while non-skilled and labour-intensive jobs would go to Pakistanis, the
Chinese workers would come to occupy the high skilled jobs, crowding out the
Pakistanis. The common concern is whether Pakistan’s educational sector and
technical training infrastructure are geared up to fill thousands of upcoming
jobs for skilled workers. The assurances by the government to churn out skilled
labour in a short time have not been convincing. In August 2017, the Pakistani
Ambassador to China stated that 30,000 Chinese were working in Pakistan on
CPEC related projects, with the number expected to rise as more projects
begin (Jabri, 2018). In addition to direct jobs, the Chinese have also set up
small businesses in Pakistan’s main cities in recent years, such as groceries,
guesthouses and restaurants. Reportedly, “27,596 visa extensions were grant-
ed to the Chinese” in 2016 – “a 41 per cent increase on 2015.” This shows the
Chinese are spending longer duration in Pakistan, many for employment and
business purposes (Khan, 2017). At the same time, Pakistanis engaged in
business are being denied visas by China.
The growing visibility of the Chinese, while a welcome factor in Paki-
stan on a strategic level, has attracted some degree of resentment, for reasons
other than mere crowding out of local employment. Though few, there have
been reports especially this year of an unease with Chinese settlements
among the conservative pockets that inhabit Pakistan. A simmering cultural-
friction that is still in an incipient stage is emerging, with the possibility of
flaring up. A clash between the Chinese and the Pakistani police did take place,
as captured in a video of a Chinese worker displaying hostility to the local
police at Khanewal. It generated national and international headlines,
following which the involved workers were deported back. Also, in February,
one member of the Pakistan National Assembly accused China of sending

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 Prateek Joshi

prisoners to Pakistan as CPEC workers, and drew attention to the recent

arrests of Chinese nationals in an ATM fraud case (Dawn, 2018). The issue had
also been raised by Cyril Almeida (Dawn editor, infamous for the Panama
Leaks) in 2016.
The Balance of Payments Ambiguities
The debates in Pakistan on CPEC projects have focused on their
capacity to generate financial returns that are expected to launch the Pakistani
economy on a growth spiral and enable it to repay the Chinese investors. But
what has inhibited a more holistic analysis of a precise figure of CPEC is the
nature of Chinese funds itself. The balance of payments issue, which has
gained critical importance given Pakistan’s persisting foreign exchange prob-
lems and Islamabad’s commitments on loan repayment to the IMF, also raises
the question as to how it would pay From the beginning of the
the CPEC loans. Part of the optimism
CPEC there has been no
driving the CPEC has been the belief
that the multiplier effects of the prom- procedural clarity on how
ised $62 billion worth of investments Pakistan would repay the
would not only put the Pakistani econ-
loans.
omy on a high growth path, but also
generate demand-propelled high returns and bring in FDI as investor confi-
dence rises, enabling it to pay back the loans. However, there is a lack of clari-
ty on the amount of Chinese capital that has gone into CPEC and the routes
through which it is flowing in. CPEC related inflows shown in the Pakistani
Balance of Payments indicate this, leading to the question of the sustainability
or the ability to address these stressed accounts.
The dwindling foreign exchange reserves raised questions on
Pakistan’s ability to repay the $6.6 billion it took from IMF in 2013. Besides the
CPEC project costs, Pakistan has to repay the IMF loan from next year
onwards, and it has to be seen how this would take place, in case a situation
emerges where IMF would not bail out the Pakistani economy. In addition,
Pakistan recently received $1 billion loan from China this June, taking “China’s
lending to Pakistan in the fiscal year [ending] in June” to $5 billion, according
to a Reuters report. (Reuters Staff, 2018).
From the beginning of the CPEC there has been no procedural clarity
on how Pakistan would repay the loans. It is necessary to look into the balance

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

of payments data from the Pakistan Economic Survey, and State Bank of
Pakistan (SBP) reports to understand this. From the FDI data FY 2016 onward,
it is clear that inflows into Pakistan are not taking the FDI route as a significant
source, despite inflows from China having grown. In FY 2015, the year before
CPEC was launched, FDI in Pakistan stood at $987 million of which the Chinese
share was $319 million (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2015). The rise in FDI is
discernible from FY 15-16 onward, as it more than doubled to $2.30 billion,
with the Chinese share soaring to $1.063 billion – a three-fold rise from the
previous year (Pakistan Economic Survey,
FY 2016 onwards, 2016). In FY 2017, FDI into Pakistan
successive Pakistan amounted $2.41 billion; with Chinese share
almost half at $1.185 billion. FDI from China
Economic Surveys
between July and February of FY 2018 rose
(PES) have cited CPEC to $1.281 billion of the total $1.941 billion
related imports as the that came into Pakistan (Pakistan Economic
Survey, 2017). Official Pakistani records
causal factors for high
have not clarified what percentage of the
CAD Chinese FDI constitutes the CPEC invest-
ments. However, the rise in capital inflows coincide with the launching of
CPEC. Even going by the assumption that all of the incoming investments
have gone into the corridor, they add up to only $3.5 billion, which is substan-
tially short of the figures discussed by the Chinese officials or those claimed by
Pakistani leaders. Also, since it was also declared at the outset that some
CPEC related inflows would come as machinery imports, this necessitates an
inquiry into the pattern of import composition and the trade balance with Chi-
na in the last three years.
Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Accounting Ambiguities
Pakistan’s CAD had been on the rise since 2013-14 with slowing of
exports and rise in imports, as also because of a depreciating rupee. FY 2016
onwards, successive Pakistan Economic Surveys (PES) have cited CPEC related
imports as the causal factors for high CAD, ending further debates by stating
that this would be beneficial for the economy in the longer run as the gains
start to be realised. The data of the first eleven months of Financial Year 2017
recorded an alarming trade deficit of $30 billion, a 42 per cent rise over the

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 Prateek Joshi

previous year. While this was partly explained by a decline in exports, what
gained attention was the steep rise in machinery imports from China
(attributed to CPEC). Growth in CPEC-related imports “accounted for 38 per
cent increase in the total imports” by Pakistan (Pasha, 2017). There has been a
focus on imports of power generation machinery (which constitutes close to a
quarter of total machinery imports) to explain high CAD. These have grown
substantially if compared to the pre-CPEC years’ data. During July-April
months of FYs 2013-14 and 2014-15, the power machinery imports amounted
$872.9 million and $934 million, respectively. With the launch of CPEC, the fig-
ure rose up to $1.341 billion and $2.185 billion (between July and February) for
FYs 2015 and 2016, despite the PES data calculating the latter figure with a
one-to-two month omission (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2014, 2015 and 2016).
Despite such increase, even the import figures do not account for the
claims of CPEC inflows. Moreover, discrepancies have been found between the
PES data on power generation machinery imports and that published by the
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. This was admitted by the State Bank of
Pakistan’s State of the Economy report for the second quarter of FY 2017-18
(Jamal, 2017). According to the report, the “gap between the datasets of the
SBP and the PBS has consistently been rising since 2015”, which is incidentally
the year of CPEC’s inception. It increased from a ten-year average of $193
million to $1.1 billion, owing to discrepancies in information regarding how
these imports from China are being financed (Jamal, 2017). Technically, PBS
takes data from the customs after imports have arrived, and SBP calculates
the data once the bank makes payment for those imports (Jamal, 2017).
Conclusion
The CPEC is seen as a strong connecting link between the geopolitical
and economic destinies of Pakistan and China. Given the branding of the Belt
and Road Initiative, the corridor has been strategically elevated, and is now
identified as part of Pakistan’s nation-building endeavour. Alongside the
optimism, China’s economic dealings with the developing world (and even
developed world to some extent) raise questions about the goals it wishes to
pursue and its methods. The article has attempted to understand Chinese
forays into Pakistan through the pattern in which the CPEC is actually
unfolding, and concludes that CPEC should not be understood in the success

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 CPEC at Three: Mapping Progress, Stakeholders and Sustainability

or a failure binary. Major infrastructure projects, except ML-1, are underway

and expect completion soon, as seen from progress reports. Several energy
projects are underway and making steady progress. Given the capital expected
to go into this sector, Pakistan’s ability to repay the loans would largely hinge
on the returns these projects generate.
Nevertheless, severe data ambiguities have prevented a clear analysis
of where CPEC is headed and an estimation of how much Pakistanis are
expected to repay. The FDI figures too are not appreciable as seen from the
official data, given the high rhetoric regarding expected Chinese investments.
External debt to China has been rising in the last three years, but is out-
weighed by external debt to other countries. Some of these ambiguities would
be clarified as more of the CPEC’s projects become operational in the next few
years. It would also become clear whether the corridor would generate the
desired financial and developmental returns. Regarding China’s strategic
goals, it is too early to say whether China would gain strategic foothold in
areas like Gilgit-Baltistan or Gwadar as against its realising its commercial
objectives. Nevertheless, traces of discontent are visible, especially among the
economists and the business community on issues of loan repayment and
benefits to the local economy, as opposed to the military. The military has
clearly acquired greater political and economic stakes in the CPEC on grounds
of strategic gains and in the pretext of safeguarding the corridor. At the
moment, what is clear is the tremendous pressure on Pakistan to ensure the
execution of the projects under progress and ensure generation of returns as
soon as possible.
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