Climate change, Sea-level rise and Coastal Natural Hazards:

A GIS-Based Vulnerability Assessment, State of Pará, Brazil

Claudio F. Szlafsztein
Department of Geology, Center of Geosciences, University of Pará, Brazil

Human Security and Climate Change

An International Workshop
Holmen Fjord Hotel, Asker, near Oslo, 21–23 June 2005

Organizers:
Centre for the Study of Civil War, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) &
Centre for International Environmental and Climate Research at the University of Oslo (CICERO)
for the Global Environmental Change and Human Security Program (GECHS)
Climate Change, sea-level rise and Coastal Natural Hazards: A GIS-Based Vulnerability
Assessment, State of Pará, Brazil

Claudio F. Szlafsztein 1
Abstract
Studies carried out in the North of Brazil reveal that the low-lying coastal zone has been severely and
increasingly impacted by storm floods and erosion processes in the last 25 years affecting the life and
socioeconomic activities (fishing, tourism, crabs and shrimps collections) of the population. Diverse
authors relate this situation with climate change and global and relative sea-level rise evidences. In
response to these impacts a variety of autonomous and/or planned coastal defense measures and
adaptation strategies (land use law, building codes, disaster relief and insurance) have been applied in
the region, but with only limited success.
Therefore, this work support the Coastal Zone Management Program of the State of Pará
through the identification, assessment and classification of the coastal zone’ overall vulnerability to
flood and erosion risks. This is achieved by using a Geographic Information System in order to create
a so-called composite vulnerability index (CVI). The CVI includes sixteen different variables,
describing both the natural and socio-economic conditions, which determine the risk situation in 343
census collection areas (22 municipal districts) of the coastal zone. By means of GIS (Arc view 3.2),
these variables are classified, weighted and combined to yield a single vulnerability indicator or CVI.
The vulnerability index describes five classes, from very low to very high vulnerability.
The key results of this study are then presented in three maps, showing the natural
vulnerability, the socio-economic vulnerability and the total (=composite) vulnerability for each of the
municipal districts. This index now provides a reliable, easily applicable tool for (1) the measurement
and description of the coastal susceptibility to current and potential hazards within and among the 22
municipal districts in Pará (16,215 km2), and (2) the spatial distribution of the IPCC’s adaptation
strategies (protection, accommodation and retreat).
The paper critically analyzes the confidence levels for the results obtained and the possibilities
to update the variables or to include new ones according future natural and socioeconomic scenarios.

1. Introduction
The coast of Brazil faces the Atlantic Ocean from the equatorial to the southern temperate regions.
This zone of variable width reaches an extension of approximately 8,000 km and shows a considerable
diversity of coastal morphology, exposures and ecosystems. At present, 63% of Brazilian states share
the coastal area where almost a quarter of the country’s total population is concentrated. This coastal

1
Professor, Department of Geology, Center of Geosciences, University Federal of Pará. Campus Universitário
do Guamá, 66075-110, Belém-PA, Brazil. iosele@ufpa.br

2
zone can be considered an area of huge contrasts. On the one hand, there are intensively developed
(urban areas, port systems, seaside tourism resorts, and industry, fishing and oil exploitation
activities). On the other hand, vast areas show low population density and well-preserved ecosystems
of great environmental value, that recently, however, are becoming a focus of an occupation and
human-related environmental impacts.
Natural disasters become one of most severe problems at the coastal area. In particular, low-
lying areas, which are strongly affected by flooding or by active processes of shoreline erosion and
sedimentation, pose the most serious consequences for local communities and tourists. Functions and
values of the coastal system have been degraded, and public safety and economy have been impacted.
These problems could be accentuated due to rapidly increasing population pressures, which often lead
to inconsiderate or poorly planned development in natural hazard-prone areas and potential scenarios
of climate change/relative sea level rise.
The description of many coastal areas as highly hazards prone zones by scientists has led to an
increasing attention of the coastal risks and attempts to understand and mitigate them on the side of
government and administrations. The concept of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is
considered a good approach for this purpose, because it can combine the control of socio-economic
development patterns, natural hazards prevention, and natural resource conservation at the same time.
According to Kay and Alder (1999), most of the wide range of administrative, social and technical
instruments used in an ICZM program could be analyzed through a simplified organizational
framework, the P-S-I-R cycle (Pressure-State-Impact-Response) (Figure 1).

Figure 1. P-S-I-R framework: continuous feedback process in coastal areas (modified Klein and Nicholls, 1999).
When climatic and man-made Pressures cause partial or total imbalance of the coastal system,
the first effects are changes on the State of soil, water, habitats and land cover and use. This
disequilibrium results in a number of perceived Impacts (ex. Pollution, degradation; changes and
migration) that affect the natural processes, the uses and protection of resources and the

3
socioeconomic activities. Impacts are also a function of the system Vulnerability (Socio-economic and
natural). Assessments of vulnerability and impacts also provide a starting point for the determination
of effective remedial action to diminish impacts and to re-establish the original conditions as soon as
possible by supporting spontaneous or planned Responses Policies. This means that either total or
partial mitigation of the causes of the imbalance or adaptation to the new conditions are necessary.
Adaptation responses mainly aim to reduce the system vulnerability; however, they can also cause
changes on the pressures.
Definitions of vulnerability to environmental stress vary considerably. Vulnerability is usually
linked to a specific hazard or set of hazards and shows a clear separation between the Natural
dimension - “The susceptibility of resources to negative impacts from hazard events” (NOAA, 1999),
and the Socio-economic dimension – “The state of individuals, groups or communities characterized
in terms of their capacity or ability to (i) be physically or emotionally wounded or hurt and (ii)
anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of natural hazards or unexpected changes
placed on their livelihoods and well being” (Adger and Kelly, 1999).
The coastal zone of the State of Pará (North of Brazil) represents such a system affected by
natural hazards and risks, especially by flooding and erosion, in a context of climate change/sea level
rise scenarios, which can lead to loss of land, severe property damage and alteration of its ecological
characteristics. Therefore, in the context of the P-S-I-R framework, this work aims to describe natural
hazards impacts, in order to identify, assess and classify natural and socio-economic vulnerabilities of
the coastal zone by means of a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based coastal vulnerability
index.

2. The Northeast Part of Coastal Zone of the State of Pará – The Study Area
The coastal zone of the State of Pará (82,596 km2), defined by the National Coastal Zone Management
Plan, may be divided into three sectors. The study area of this work, the Atlantic or NE sector,
comprises 22 municipal districts over an area of 16,215 km2 which is 19.5% of the total area of the
coastal zone of Pará (Figure 2).
From the geological point of view, the region shows a Late Cenozoic sedimentary evolution
defined by three litho-stratigraphic units: the Pirabas and the Barreiras Formations, and the Pós-
Barreiras sediments (Rosseti, 2001). The area is an irregular estuarine coast where the high relief of
the protruding cliffs descends in indented inlets, which penetrate about 50 km into the continent and
are about 20 km wide at the mouths. Fringes of muddy sediments, which have been deposited in front
of a higher hinterland and are covered by mangroves, characterize the estuaries (Szlafsztein et al.,
1999).
The NE Pará climate is tropical warm and humid (mean annual temperature of 26.1ºC and
precipitation larger than 2,100 mm), with a drier period - from June through November. The tides, as
the main hydrodynamic feature of the region, are of semi-diurnal nature, with a maximum tidal range

4
of 5.5 m characterizing a (low) macro-tidal regime (Martorano et al., 1993). While most of the flora
belongs to the well-developed mangrove ecosystem, the vegetation in the saline marshs is
predominantly Aleucharias sp, whereas in the cheniers and dunes arbustive vegetation is observed.
Crop farms with secondary growth and forest are the most dominant vegetation types in the inland
area of the coastal zone (Brasil MME-DNPM, 1974).
This area with very low industrial development is moderately used for agricultural purposes
and cattle farming. Socio-economic surveys show that a large percentage of the inhabitants earn their
living from the mangrove ecosystem (Crab collection and fishing are the economically most important
activities) and tourism activities. As part of the government tourism policy to facilitate access to
coastal resources for the local population, roads have been constructed, to connect beaches with the
hinterland (Szlafsztein, 2003).
-48 -47

N
13

14
5
8
4 18
11
1 7 9 19
2 16
3
1 6 -

15 21
10 17 20
12

22

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Study Area
MARAJO ISLAND
AMAZON RIVER

2 -
0 60 Kilometers

-48 -47

Figure 2. Map of the north coast of Brazil showing location of the study area, the “Sector 1 or Atlantic”.

3. Problem Definition – The Natural Hazards Impacts in the NE of the State of Pará
The very active and complex coastal areas dynamic is the origin of the processes of shoreline erosion,
sedimentation, and low-lying coastal flooding that have direct and indirect consequences for coastal
communities. The coastal zone of Pará can also be described as a system affected by natural hazards
and risks, principally including flooding and erosion, which can lead to loss of land, alteration of
ecological characteristics, and severe property damage (Figure 3). In many opportunities, the dramatic
effects of these negative impacts are reflected in numerous newspaper reports.

5
 In the municipality of Bragança, erosive processes have narrowed the beaches. In Vila dos
Pescadores successive flooding and erosion events have constantly affected the residents' life, and in
the last five years, about 500 m of the village area next to the estuary have been eroded (Souza Filho,
2001). Alves (2001) and Krause (2002) depict that rapid erosion processes (up to 50 m in one year of
observation) have impacted the NW sector of the beach of Ajuruteua. In the municipality of
Marapanim, Silva (1995) and Santos (1996) estimate an erosion rate of 15 m/year in Marudá region
and report a cliff retreat rate of 200m on Algodoal Island. Human settlements in hazard-prone areas
can also be found in several sectors of the municipalities of São João de Pirabas, Vigia, and Maracanã
(Szlafsztein, 2003). Several authors (Franzinelli, 1982; Mendes, 1998) describe numerous erosion
events in different sectors of the coast of the municipality of Salinópolis. Similarly, Muehe and Neves
(1995) indicate that this region, which is the center tourism at the Northern coast of Brazil, is the
sector with a high socioeconomic susceptibility to the impacts of potential sea-level rise. Large storm-
surge events were the origin of the disaster situations decree on the beach of Crispim (Marapanim)
and Augusto Corrêa, initiating the governmental relief (IOEPA, 1992-2001).

Figure 3. Human settlements and activities in hazards prone areas in (a) Salinas, (b) Vigia and (c) Marapanim.

Unfortunately, official data on the economic impacts (damages and recovery costs) of the
natural hazards in the State of Pará do not exist; however, it does not impede the consideration of their
effects in a regional context, as one of the main problems that are presented in the coastal zone.
Throughout the world, coastal areas are facing a growing number of problems because of
development and people living in natural hazard-prone areas. In consequence, functions and values
normally associated with coastal areas have been degraded, and public safety and economy have been
impacted. The recognition by scientists that many coastal areas are hazardous and dynamic zones, and

6
that the consequences for human development are so potentially devastating has led to an increasing
need in understanding and solving coastal risks.
Along the 20th Century, most of the human settlement and development planning has taken
place in a conceptual framework of “relative constancy” - socio-economic and environmental
variables are relatively “stable”. However, many authors (Warrick and Farmer, 1990; Hoolligan and
Reiners, 1992) state that the temporal change and evolution of the different coastal zone components
should be considered. On the one hand, the local benefits of using coastal resources outweigh the
risks, and continue to attract human activity and development to the coastal zone. On the other hand,
predicted changes in climate and sea level will exacerbate many of these coastal problems, particularly
on small islands, deltas and low lying coastal plains. Modest sea-level rise may have serious effects in
combination with extreme seawater levels and impingement of high waves. According to Rosseti
(2001) and Muehe and Neves (1995), the extremely low relief of the coastal platform of the NE of
Pará implies that a change of a few meters in relative sea level would be enough to flood large areas
into the continent.

4. Natural and human pressures over the coastal zone of the State of Pará

4.1 Climate change and global and relative sea-level rise

The presence of human beings and their activities as they interact with naturally occurring coastal
processes define the coasts as areas of potential risk. The changing climate may cause more severe and
frequent storms and thus increase the risk of flooding for both inland and coastal areas; then the
society would be exposed to more frequent flooding and property damage.
No environmental issue has risen so scientific, political and public interest and debate as the
potential global climate change as a result from the “Greenhouse Effect” - a increasing concentration,
in the atmosphere of the main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFC, and Nox) probably originated in
human activities (Houghton, 1999). Most widely employed climate change scenarios are based upon
highly complex general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere and the ocean that project a
relatively smooth path of global average temperature rising. One of the most accepted, considering the
global mean temperature evolution from 1860 to 2050, indicate a simulated warming ranging from
about 2°C to 3.5°C/century (Weaver and Green, 1998).
Available observational evidence indicates that global climate changes have already affected a
diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. According to Berz (1999),
one of the most important effects of global climate change is sea-level rise and its effects on the
frequency and severity of natural catastrophes.
Concern over the consequences of global warming has led to many conclusions on the rate of
sea level rise from (i) historical tide gauge long records (last 100 to 200 years), (ii) comparison among
a broad range of stations, (iii) rate estimation of land movement, and (iv) data from satellite-based
altimeter (França, 2000). The evaluation of the historic data sets shows a global average sea level rise

7
for the last 100 to 150 years from 1.4 to 1.8 mm/yr (Gornitz, 1995). Compared to the changes in the
late Holocene time estimated through well documented geological records (0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr.), there
seems to be a pronounced recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise (Gaffin, 1997).
The exact global rate of sea level change to occur in the future is not known. However, as the
earth’s average temperature increases, a scientific consensus has gradually emerged - there is a serious
risk that the rate of sea level rise will accelerate during the 21st century in spite of the international
effort for greenhouse-gas emission mitigation. One of the most accepted results has originated in the
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) models called IS92a, that make a high
estimate of 60 cm by 2100 (figure 4).
Future greenhouse gas-induced climate change will have implications for global mean climate
and sea level, but, more importantly, it will not necessarily raise sea level by the same amount
everywhere; there will be contrasting regional manifestations. A rise or fall of land surface also causes
a relative local fall or rise of sea level. Given that land uplift/subsidence varies from place to place,
then relative sea-level change similarly varies from place to place (Nicholls and Leatherman, 1995).
Unfortunately, developing reliable scenarios for relative sea level rise can be difficult without high
precision land positioning technology, and absolute gravity measurements.

Figure 4 Global average sea-level rise 1990 to 2100 for the IS92a scenario, including the direct effect of sulphate
aerosols (IPCC, 2001).
The stratigraphic distribution and characteristics of the depositional sequences on the NE
coastal area of the state of Pará provide a basis for discussing the history of relative sea level
fluctuations during the late Cenozoic (Rosseti, 2001). By the end of early Miocene/early mid-Miocene,
sea level rise slowed and eventually began to fall, as suggested by the nature of the Pirabas Formation
and lower portion of the Barreiras Formation, which is recorded in shoaling upward cycles formed by
the vertical superposition of outer shelf deposits with restricted shelf/lagoon and mangrove/mud flat
deposits. Relative sea level rose again during the middle (to early late?) Miocene, resulting in lying of

8
tidal-influenced cross stratified sandstones and mudstones within tidal channels and widespread tidal
flats and mangroves (middle and upper portions of the Barreiras Formation).
Following the mid-Miocene transgression, the coastal region of Pará emerged once more, due
to a drop in sea level recorded by the surface discontinuity with evidence of sub aerial exposure.
Following the period of erosion and soil development resulting from the late Miocene low stand,
sediments began to accumulate again, resulting in the called “Pos-Barreiras sediments”. Determining
the palaeoenvironmental significance of these deposits is hampered by the scarcity of sedimentary
structures. However, indirect characteristics suggest at least one relatively dry period following the
late Miocene low stand.
Many studies on Holocene relative sea level rise changes have focused on the east Brazilian
coastal region (Angulo and Lessa, 1998; Suguio et al., 1985). However, there is little information on
Holocene relative sea level changes and coastal evolution for the North Brazilian coast (Behling et al.,
2001; Souza Filho, 1995).
Unfortunately, there are not enough accurate and homogeneous data to analyze the regional
changes in the last 100 years in South America in a similar way on other countries in the Northern
Hemisphere. According to Aubrey et al. (1988) from 55 records by the Permanent Service for Mean
Sea Level in South America, Central America and the Caribbean Sea that cover more than 10 years,
only 14 extend until 1970. The data about the city of Belém cover a 20-year period (1949-1968).
Because changes of land level dominate the tide gauge, the results are expressed by (+), which means
relative rise, and (-) which means relative fall of land levels. The Belém station has documented minor
subsidence at a rate of - 0.3 mm/yr, and is on a structural low marked by continuing subsidence
(Figure 5). Figure 6 shows that all recorded ports in the Brazilian coast are experiencing an increase in
the relative sea level height of nearly 4 mm/year (Mesquita, 2000).
The difficulties that emerge from applying GCMs in South America for climate and sea-level
predictions can be explained by the nature of the available historical meteorological record that has
been used to validate the models and, in part, to structure the models themselves. It has serious
shortcomings. Jones et al. (1986) while working on surface air temperature variations for the southern
hemisphere mentions that the most striking fact is the number of records that could not be analyzed
because cover less than 20 years. 46% of the 610 stations in the whole Southern Hemisphere fall into
this category, while over half (54%) of the South-American stations cannot be checked. Most of these
stations are in three countries - Peru, Argentina, and particularly Brazil.
The structure of the GCMs is the second cause of uncertainty in applying these models to sub-
regional predictions and to short periods in South America. Besides the differences between the
models in the parameters used to simulate the physical processes in the atmosphere and the conditions
of ocean/earth surfaces, the spatial resolution of the grid points adopted seems to be too large, the
topographical relief has been smoothed over units of approximately 500 X (700-800) km, and

9
important features such as the Andean range in South America cannot be properly represented (Burgos
et al., 1991).

Figure 5. Position of tide-gauge stations whose records cover more than 10 years. Negative values indicate areas
where land is sinking relatively to sea level, positive values where the land is rising (Aubrey et al., 1988).

Figure 6. Series of annual values on the relative mean sea level (cm), in Brazilian ports. Data after 1968 in
Belém are extrapolated (França, 2000).

10
 In addition to already existing problems of coastal erosion and flooding, described earlier,
future relative sea-level needs to be considered due to these problems will probably worsen in the
future or emerge in new ones. Sea level rise could affect the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic
processes inundating wetlands and lowlands, accelerating coastal erosion, exacerbating coastal
flooding, raising water tables and increasing the salinity of the rivers, bays and aquifers.
Coastal erosion also occurs where the sea level is stable or falling, especially where weak or
unconsolidated geological materials face high wave energy; however, this process is facilitated by a
rising sea level. Sea-level rise brings wave action to progressively higher levels and permits larger
waves to reach the coast through deepening near-shore waters. Therefore, although coastal erosion is
not a reliable indication of a rising sea level, it is more extensive and more rapid in areas where the sea
is rising. This way, it is possible to expect that the predicted sea-level rise produced by the greenhouse
effect will initiate erosion on coasts that are presently stable or growing, and intensify existing coastal
erosion (Milliman and Haq, 1996).
The rise in sea level would have its most severe effects in low-lying coastal regions, being the
extension of the affected area dependent on the land gradient. Coastal zones would become more
vulnerable to flooding for three reasons (1) a higher sea level provides a higher base for storm surges
to build upon, (2) higher water levels would increase flooding due to rainstorms by reducing coastal
drainage, and (3) a rise in sea level would raise water tables (Titus et al., 1987).
A rise in sea level, higher tidal range and frequency of extreme storm surges would enable
saltwater to penetrate farther inland and upstream in rivers, bays, wetlands, estuaries, and also
infiltration into coastal aquifers, which would be harmful to some aquatic plants and animals, and
would threaten human use of water (drinking and irrigation) (Sterr, 2000).
Some studies and reviews have evaluated potential impacts on particular biological
communities and coastal biodiversity. From the biological and ecological effects point of view, coastal
wetlands will be among the most severely affected ecosystems, since they form largely in the interdital
zone (Reid and Trexler, 1992). The response of a salt marsh or mangrove to rising sea level depends
on the rates of submergence vs. vertical accretion or sedimentation. First, because of the gentle
gradient of sediments, this environmental setting is both selective and fragile. So a small change in
mean sea-level would result in considerable change in the period of immersion of the mangrove,
thereby causing plant mortality (Blasco et al., 1996). Second, due to the increase of storm surges
frequency and other extreme events, many of these ecosystems would be degraded or eroded,
changing shoreline position (Ellison and Stoddart, 1991; Woodroffe, 1990). The partial or complete
loss of these ecosystems would diminish their buffering and the protection capacity of the adjacent
land against the sea since they dissipate a major portion of the wave energy before the waves reach the
shore. Nevertheless, many of these ecosystems maintain its area extent or even grow under sea-level
rise, if sedimentation rates at least match submergence rates. The mangrove would extend landward.

11
This migration might only be hindered by an increase in slope upland, as well as by economic
development of the interior.

4.2 Increasing Population and Development

The present and predicted sea-level rise and its possible acceleration are not the only pressures that
affect the coastal systems. Considering that coastal areas are an attractive location for human progress,
significant human progress and population growth are also occurring in the coastal zone. Increased
development in coastal areas often result in pressures for food, recreation and natural resources; in
changes of natural habitats, and in the growth of population infrastructure and the associated economic
investment. Therefore, one must include in any calculation on the effects of sea level rise in coastal
areas, a growing human development as a pressure on the coastal system, since this implies larger
population and infrastructure concentrated and exposed to natural hazards.
The northern coastal area of Brazil has been colonized since the first early 1600s, having not
only the responsibility to protect the mouth of the Amazon River, but also with the obligation of
supplying food to Belém. These activities, together with commerce, have allowed the region to go
together with the different cycles of economic prosperity in the State of Pará and Belém, particularly
in the beginning of the 20th century. Since 1965 2 , the isolation of Belém from the rest of the country,
and its dependence on the NE region of the State has been finished. Consequently, at present this
region shows several areas, which are isolated, have difficult access, and no electricity, limiting its
main economic activities to small-scale agriculture, fishing, crab collection, and tourism. However,
considering many increasing and new socio-economic activities result from autonomous and
spontaneous decisions and also originated in governmental strategies and measures established at
international, regional, and local scales, it is possible to describe a development scenario for the
coastal zone for the next 30-50 years.
Scenarios of future population sizes estimate that in 30 years more people will live in the
world’s coastal zones than today (NOAA, 1999). The State of Pará had a population increase of
approximately 25% between 1990 and 2000 (6,189,550 inhabitants), and its annual growth (2.54%)
being higher that the Brazilian one (1.63%). Belém is among the fifteen most populous municipal
districts in Brazil with 1,279,861 inhabitants (around 3,000,000 inhabitants considering all the
metropolitan area) (O Liberal, 2001a). Particularly, the study area has also registered a population
increase (10%) in the last 10 years - 509,292 and 555,651 inhabitants in 1991 and 2000, respectively.
The municipalities that have recorded a growth are Capanema, Colares, Igarapé-Açu, Magalhães
Barata, Marapanim, Nova Timboteua, Peixe Boi, Salinópolis, São João de Pirabas, and Terra Alta.
However, these growth rates, as well as absolute population numbers, do not account for the growth in
seasonal populations associated with coastal tourist trade. Seasonal population in some coastal areas

2
The extinction of the Belém-Bragança railway, and the construction of the federal road Belém-Brasilia (BR-
010).

12
may double or triple the number of permanent residents, resulting in greater development intensity and
pressures than census data would suggest.
After an entire economic history based on primary products extraction and trade, the State of
Pará has recently adopted some strategies in order to change its economic profile, such as the
improvement of primary production, incentive to local industrialization and to the establishment of
new activities (Pará, 2001). Although there have been many efforts to develop and to modernize the
agricultural activity (e.g. manioc, beans, fruit, etc.) allowing to transform subsistence production into a
medium scale, the main change evidences can be described in fishing and tourism activities.
The north coast of Brazil is an extensive area benefited by influence of the Amazon River and
several other rivers and mangroves, which significantly favors fish and crustacean abundance through
the supply of nutrients. The exploration of renewable natural resources, particularly fishing resources,
is among the most traditional and relevant activities of the local populations. Commercial and
industrial exploitation, and lately, recreational fishing, and aquaculture are described among the
increasing economical activities in the area (Pará, 2002).
According to governmental information, in 2002, 50% of the fish captured in the Amazon
region came from Pará, what means 10% of the national production, employing around 100,000
families that are related with small and industrial scale fishing. At present, the whole shrimp
production is practically exported, US$ 20.1 million in 2001 - from the total volume marketed by the
State of Ceará, the greatest exporter of lobster in Brazil, 80% is originated from the littoral of Pará.
The aquaculture sector in the State has an exponential expansion in the last years. While 124
municipal districts of Pará produced about 53,700 fish in 1995, this number jumped to more than 1.5
million in 1996, and 13,110,000 fish in 2000. Shrimp production has also significantly increased in the
last years, surpassing a production of 8,600 shrimp in 2000.
Among the main strategies and measures adopted in the last years in order to increase the
fishing activity on the coast of Pará can be mentioned (i) The creation of fishing engineering and of
technical training courses, (ii) The commitment terms signed by the governments of Pará and Iceland,
Chile, Ireland, and Japan in order to modernize and expand fishing activities, and to enlarge the fish
markets infrastructure, improving national and international commercialization conditions, (iii) The
tax reduction for fish and shrimp trade and export, and (iv) The application on Pará of the “Diesel Oil
Subsidies Program” of the Ministry of Agriculture to small-scale fishing activities.
Leisure and recreation activities on the coastal zones have flourished adding new dimensions
to coastal development. The steadily growing demand for tourist facilities triggers an important
increase of coastal accommodations (villas and other buildings, camping grounds, pleasure harbors),
and industrial and service jobs are created.
The State of Pará has a great tourist resource potential, but the great distance from Brazilian
and international centers contributes to accentuate the negative effects of lack of appropriate access,
communication and hotel infrastructure. At present, most of the territory of Pará offers a precarious

13
situation in these points. However, considering that tourism is recognized as the world’s most growing
industry, and one of the main potential sources of foreign revenue, particularly for regions with limited
development options, strategies and measures at three governmental levels related with this activity
have been established in the State, in order to popularize the natural beauties, and create economic
incentives to construct new and/or improve the existent infrastructure.
At national level, there are agencies that support tourist activity programs, and must give
technical assistance and priority for the concession of any fiscal or financial incentives, to states and
municipal districts 3 . At state level, the tourist activity is defined as one of the main instruments for the
development (State Law 6035/97). According to the Plan of Tourist Development of Pará, the State
divides its territory in six tourist areas. The municipalities of A. Corrêa, Curuçá, Maracanã, S. J. de
Pirabas, Tracuateua, Viseu, Bragança, Marapanim and Salinópolis integrate one of them, the Atlantic
Coast tourist sector. The three last ones have been defined as the main areas for tourism development
because they synthesize the cultural, geographical and historical values of the region (Paratur, 2001).
Some long-term established activities are now being displaced by new ones, such as
exploitation of mineral resources. In 2001, the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) offered areas for
exploration in the North region of Brazil. The area, including the mouth of the Amazon River, is a
much-unexplored basin in spite of the activities developed by Petrobrás in the 70s (O Liberal,
2001b). British Petroleum of Brazil, Petrobrás, and ESSO companies have started a new phase of gas
and oil exploration on the coast of Pará and Amapá States since 2002. The potential sucessful results
can give a great incentive to the economic development of the coastal area. The Federal Constitution
(art. 20) assures the municipalities a participation in the economic result of hydrocarbons exploration
- royalties. Particularly, the Brazilian energy policy law (Federal Law 9478/97) states, that in case of
offshore exploration the municipalities located in front of the oil fields and those that are affected by
petroleum and natural gas shipment operations will receive a fraction of the royalties.
Without a good-quality infrastructure, no kind of development is possible. Therefore, in order
to improve the regional integration of the coastal zone, several actions and resource investments have
been recently evident in the Amazon region, in the State of Pará, and particularly in its NE coast. One
of the main problems of the Amazon region is the isolation state. The Brazilian transport system,
based mainly on the terrestrial transport, communicates the coastal area with the rest of the country
through an only one highway - BR 010 that links Belém to Brasilia. Thus, this region is not well
connected to other areas, many of them extremely close and important as the cities of Macapá (State of
Amapá) and São Luis (State of Maranhão). In order to solve this difficulty the Waterway of Marajó 4

3
PROECOTUR –Program for Ecotourism Development in the Amazon Region; PROINTUR-National Program
of Tourist Infrastructure; PNMT-National Program of Tourism Municipalization, PRODETUR-Regional
Tourism Development Program.
4
A navigable way that crosses the Island of Marajó, between the Afuá and Anajás rivers, connecting directly
Belém and Macapá and facilitating the transport and the communication within the island. This waterway, that

14
and the BR-398 Road 5 are being built. There are also efforts in order to pave the BR-156 highway
(Macapá-Oiapoque, State of Amapá), to construct a bridge connecting Brazil to French Guiana, and to
construct the Trans-Guyana highway, linking the coastal area and capital cities of French Guyana,
Suriname and Cooperativist Republic of Guyana. It would allow integrating the region not only in a
national, but also in an international context.

4.3 The uncertainties about the future scenarios

The research community is beginning to come to grips with the implications of a long recognized
truth: future emissions of greenhouse gases, their climatic effects as sea-level rise, and the resulting
environmental and economic consequences are subject to large uncertainties (Reilly et al., 2001).
The climatic responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect are evaluated by means of highly
complex General Circulation Models (GCMs). Data resources on climate are relatively good,
extending back to the last century in many cases; however, the predictions of the GCM are subjects to
so many others variables that the predictions will almost certainly change as the climate and the
greenhouse systems are further understood. Most models do not adequately take into account sea-
atmosphere interactions, changes in ocean circulation patterns, changes in snow cover or most
important changes in cloud cover and precipitation patterns (Milliman and Haq, 1996). In particular,
less developed countries often have very sparse climate networks, short and badly broken data series
and insecure undigitised database (Basher, 1999).
Although many hundreds of coastal and island tide gauges around the earth regularly produce
sea level data, the reliability of historic data evaluations on a global scale is still hampered by
considerable uncertainties. Some major gaps still exist as to both the geographical distribution of
gauge stations (mostly in the North hemisphere and in the land) and to the available long-time series
(> 50 years) of gauge records. Short tide gauge records are of little use for determining the global
trend of sea level because of very large local and regional interannual fluctuations of sea level (Pugh,
1987).
Future socio economic development projected on the coasts is equally difficult to predict
accurately mainly since it does not only depend on technical and economic viability factors, but also
on the many times not comprehensible and very variable local, regional and international political
reasons.
While there is certain confidence in the broad predictions at global and continental scales,
there still are many uncertainties about detailed model and scenarios predictions for regional or local
scales, which are more interesting for individual communities. However, in spite of all the

represents an investment of US$ 10 million, can shorten the Belém - Macapá trip to 432 km, 148 kilometers less
than the current fluvial distance.
5
The BR 398 (Federal Law 9830/99) will connect the biggest industrial port on the north coast of Brazil, São
Luis, to the municipalities of Bragança, Augusto Corrêa and Viseu (300,000 inhabitants approximately),
bringing economic and social development and offering the possibility of new investments, opening tourist
sectors and facilitating the goods transport.

15
uncertainties, a review of possible sea-level change and socioeconomic development 50 to 100-years
scenarios, considering pressures on the coastal system, have been formulated.
Despite of the existent uncertainties at global and local level, it is certain that rises in sea level
have been occurring and will probably continue to happen so long as global warming increases. It
seems also clear that, in the low-lying coastal areas of Pará, the risk resulting from projected sea-level
rise should significantly increase because federal and, principally, state strategies are impelling more
people and development activities to establish on the coastal zone, exposing them to natural hazards.
Considering all above exposed aspects, a “wait for more information and see” attitude is not
rationally acceptable. Then, taking into account the possible consequences of sea-level rise on the
coast of Pará and despite the government’s tendency to neglect problems presumed to be distant,
preventive actions must be taken now. The large uncertainty about future sea level and socioeconomic
development must be taken into account when considering possible impacts and possible responses,
but it should not overshadow primary goals of ICZM - natural hazards issue, vulnerability and
adaptation and mitigation response strategies analysis.

5. GIS-Based Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the coastal Zone of the State of Pará.

5.1 General Concepts

There are diverse methods of coastal zones vulnerability assessment and most of them agree on the
following points: (i) the coastal zone doesn't behave homogeneously; (ii) it is necessary to integrate
several different kinds of information; (iii) the vulnerability definition and quantification should not be
associated to subjective elements, and (iv) the results have to provide a valid instrument for the proper
coastal zone planning and management.
Even adjacent coastal areas behave in quite different ways, varying according to social,
economic and environmental conditions, prompting efforts to classify the coastline and subdivide it
into (relatively homogeneous) units. Once subdivided; most of the approaches applied to quantify
coastal vulnerability use multidisciplinary and multivariate data. The need to easily integrate various
complex data sets has given rise to the development of numerous indices in order to assess the
sensitivity of the areas to threats, and presenting information in a simple format (Cooper and
McLaughlin 1998). Considering the importance that coastal vulnerability indices have when used as
management tools for implementation strategies, diverse efforts have been made in order to apply
them in several studies at local (El-Raey et al., 1997), regional (Lanfredi et al., 1998), and
international spatial scales (Quelennec, 1989).
In general, relatively few studies have dealt specifically with the vulnerability assessment of
the Brazilian coast. At global scale, Brazil carried out some steps of the IPCC’s Common
Methodology and their results ranks the Brazilian coastal area as a region of medium vulnerability
(Hoozemans et al., 1993). Schnack (1993) has assessed the vulnerability of the east coast of South

16
America and, at national scale, Muehe and Neves (1995) have conducted pioneer work on the
comprehension of the vulnerability and potential effect of sea level on the Brazilian coast.
It would be foolish to suggest that any particular approach to the concept of vulnerability is
more or less appropriate, neither is there a single “correct” method for conducting a vulnerability
assessment (VA). Experiences with several methodologies have yielded not only successful results,
but also their applications also revealed many problems and deficiencies (Klein and Maciver, 1999).
Considering the natural and socio-economic characteristics of the coastal zone of the State of Pará and
the few relevant Brazilian studies, it is therefore suggested to develop a specific VA methodology for
regional-scale vulnerability assessment, which is better adapted to local needs.

5.2 Material and Methods

A CVI could be defined as a means to combine a number of separate variables to create a single
indicator. In this case, these selected parameters reflect natural and socio-economic characteristics that
contribute to coastal vulnerability to natural hazards. Once selected, they are aggregated according to
an appropriate set of weights. Such combinations of all the information and coastal classification have
been greatly aided by GIS capability as well as integrated remote sensing applications. In this study,
the SPRING 3.6 program of the Brazilian Institute of Spatial Research (INPE), and Arc View GIS 3.2
(ESRI) are used.

5.3 Data problems and shortcomings in Northeast Pará

Considering that coastal processes and vulnerability are strongly determined by local, regional and
sometimes global conditions, comprehension and data of the physical, biological and social system
characteristics is required. While realizing its significance, developing countries often lack consistent
information and basic data of this kind or, if such data exist, problems with acquisition, storage and
accessibility are often immense. In Brazil, data gathering is a neglected and under-resourced activity,
because it must compete with (higher-ranked) economic and social development priorities. Therefore,
such problems often result in a very sparse networks, and short and discontinuous data series, as well
as in errors and inconsistencies due to the diverse instruments or methodologies used. Data sets are
often not readily available in digital format due to pre-computer era data sets and wrong database
practices, which makes their effective use hard. In addition, data acquisition is often constrained by the
related costs and by security and property issues. These data problems are most evident in the Amazon
region because of its vast area, the limited accessibility of several areas, the low population density
and the lack of economic and scientific resources. In this study, it is recognized that many other factors
could be used as components of the CVI. Among the data most badly missed are the following:
a) High-resolution elevation data: a high-resolution topographic mapping in low-lying coastal
areas is a primary determinant of their susceptibility to inundation (Titus and Richman, 2001). The
lack of a high-resolution topographic map of the study area makes it difficult to quantitatively assess
people and property at risk from flooding and future sea level rise. While lacking good topographic

17
information, this study utilized satellite imagery to delineate the inner (landward) boundary of the
mangrove ecosystem in order to identify the flood-prone coastal lowlands. As mangroves grow only in
a salt-water influenced regime, it is legitimate to assume that the area covered by mangroves is
flooded from the open sea or from the estuaries more or less frequently, thus representing the
minimum flood zone.
b) Climatic and oceanographic data: The oceanographic setting of the adjacent continental
shelf and the regional coastal configuration will determine the distribution of energy reaching the
shoreline. In spite of their importance, these data could not be applied at the study area, as they are not
available in sufficient spatial resolution required for differentiating coastal types and responses as
desired by VA.
c) Erosion rates: Coastal erosion is relatively easy to describe qualitatively. Quantitatively,
rates of morphological change are typically determined through comparison of sequential remote
sensing products and/or historic maps. Unfortunately, only one study has been undertaken in this
sense, on a small sector of the coast of Pará (Cohen and Lara, 2003) over a span of 25 years, which
limits reliability of the morphological change rates.
d) Population growth: As the population grows, the competition for property, farm and
constructional land and natural resources also increases along with the exposure to coastal hazards.
Unfortunately, the municipal and census collection districts in Pará suffered many changes in number
and boundaries, hindering comparisons between censuses. Such evaluations are reliable only when
boundaries are recognizable and have remained constant over time.

5.4 Design of Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the study region, based on GIS
In spite of these difficulties and data limitations, a serious attempt was made to construct a GIS-based
CVI consisting of four basic modules: (i) data gathering, (ii) data input and preprocessing, (iii) data
storage and processing, and (iv) data output (Figure 7).
The first step includes the gathering spatial (e.g. satellite images, regional and detailed maps),
and Non-Spatial (e.g. statistical records, socio-economic parameters) data. All these data can be
obtained by field and laboratory activities and originated from analysis of scientific literature,
databases or other types of sources (Table 1). Some data result from the visual and digital
interpretation and analysis of the cartography and remote sensing products (LANDSAT TM5 and
airborne RADAR band X). Fieldwork made it possible to georeference the natural or artificial
elements, to identify morphological features and processes, to confirm the results obtained from the
remote sensing image analysis, and finally, to design and calibrate the CVI.
Original raw forms of data are not often suitable for use, and it is necessary to create new
special sets in which the raw data are assembled, corrected, transformed, summarized and aggregated
into more consistent useful formats. Therefore, the second phase covers (i) all aspects of transforming

18
the data into a compatible digital form; (ii) the activities to remove data errors; and (iii) update
information.

Figure 7. Scheme of GIS applied to elaborate the Composite Vulnerability Index of the NE coastal area of Pará.
Table 1. Secondary data, sources and types, used in the construction of the CVI of the Coastal Zone of Pará.
Data Source Data Type
Census sectors maps and Statistic data.
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics – IBGE
Topographic maps
Brazilian Institute of Spatial Research - INPE Remote Sensing Image LANDSAT TM5
Library of the University Federal of Pará Geologic maps, RADAR image
Tribunal of Municipal Financial Issues - State of Pará Statistic data
“O Liberal” newspaper and Official Gazette of the State of Pará Natural disasters and protection measures
– DOE record
Natural disasters and protection measures
Civil Defense Coordination of the State of Pará
record
Special Secretary of Planning and Management of Pará Statistic data, infrastructure maps

Two models have been adopted in the third phase of this study for achieving the linkage
between data: the Geo-Relational and the Composite Map Model (Shepherd, 1991). In the first model,
attribute information is associated with three basic concepts (points, lines or polygons) that describe
features occurring in the real world, using a unique identifier assigned to each spatial element. From a
database design point of view, sets of attribute information are stored in different two-dimensional
tables linked according to the relational join. The second model is based on the “Overlay Concept”,

19
defined by the idea that the real world is portrayed as a series of overlays, each with one aspect of the
reality recorded in. Data integration consists in combining attribute values for geographical features
that lie above or below in a “stack” of superimposed layers, resulting in a new layer.In order to
facilitate the application of the CVI in coastal zone management activities, all the attribute data of
each one of the geographical features are interpolated spatially and assigned to only two types of
polygonal elements, the municipal and the census collection districts (the smallest administrative unit
defined by a government organism – the IBGE).
With respect to the vulnerability dimensions, the parameters that characterize them can also be
classified as natural and socioeconomic variables. The data of each variable are placed into classes,
ranked between 1 and 5 according to their relative vulnerability, 5 being the most vulnerable. The
classification method utilized (“Natural Breaks”), identifies breakpoints by looking at groups and
patterns inherent in the data using a rather complex statistical formula (Jenk’s optimization) that
basically minimizes the sum of the variance within each of the classes (ESRI, 1996).
Each variable are weighed according to its importance and relevance in determining the
vulnerability of coastal areas to natural hazards. These layers are then overlaid and the variable scores
combined into Natural and Socio-Economic CVI. Total Vulnerability Index (TVI) is defined as the
combination of both of them (Figure 8). All of these CVI rank coastal sectors in a 5-level scale based
on the degree of susceptibility, classifying them as: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high
vulnerability.
The last phase relates to the ways the data are displayed and the results of analyses are
reported to the users. Data are presented as maps, tables and charts, or transferred to another computer
system.

Figure 8. Definitions of Natural, Socioeconomic and Total vulnerability indices.

20
6. Results and Discussions
The following tables describe the several individual criteria used to characterize natural (table 2) and
socio-economic (table 3) aspects of the coastal zone, their significance in order to vulnerability
assessment, procedure of measure or calculation, and kind of geographical element linked to.

Table 2. Parameters used to assess the natural dimension vulnerability. M = Municipal district, CCD = Census
collection district.
Spatial
Parameters Significance Calculation method
feature
Measured (km) on existent cartography
Coastline Length Degree of exposition M
1:250,000
The relative importance of the Total coastline length (km) / Total
Continentality M
coastal area in the municipal context municipal area (km2).
Sinuosity =L/D
Coastline Circularity = Island area / Area of a
Degree of exposition. M
Complexity circle having the same perimeter as the
island
Energy environment Marine/Estuarine Ratio
Coastal Features High (seafront beaches and cliffs). (%)=(Estuarine-coast length M
Low (estuaries and bays). km/Marine-coast length km) x 100
Coastal Protection Field trips inventory and records of the
Degree of protection CCD
Measures Civil Defense of Pará (1991-2002).
Indication of past and present
Emergency Relief - The record of the Civil Defense of Pará
problems, likely indication of future CCD
Historic Cases (1991-2002).
problems.
1. Total length of the fluvial system
(km)
In low-lying coastal areas, the 2. Drainage density (km/km2)=length
Fluvial Drainage extension and low gradient of the of the stream channels per M M
rivers favor tidal propagation. 3. Split ratio (1/km) = total number of
stream segments/total length of the
fluvial network.
Indication of past and present 1. The total flooding area per CCD
Flooding Areas problems, likely indication of future (km2) CCD
problems. 2. Percentage flooded of each district
L = Total coastline length (km) and D= Distance (km) between the start and end points of the coastline.
The spatial and statistical analysis of the data of each one of the variables that characterize
natural vulnerability yields the following results:
The coastline of the NE of Pará has a longitude of approximately 2,625 km. The eastern area
(Viseu and A. Corrêa) has the biggest extent (800 km). The municipalities where the coastal area has a
great relevance (continentality) are Curuçá, Salinópolis and Quatipuru. Higher values of coastline
complexity are found in Bragança, Quatipuru and Viseu and some islands of Curuçá and Marapanim.
The flooded areas cover an area of 2,342 km2 (14.15% of the study area), with sectors of 66% flood-
prone land (from Viseu to S. J. de Pirabas), and others (Vigia and Colares) without significant
flooding areas. From the total census collection districts in direct contact with marine or estuarine
waters, only 9% have the coastline protected by some engineering stabilization measures and only two
towns - Crispim (Marapanim) and Boa Vista (Quatipuru) - has registered emergency relief conducted
by the Civil Defense, in the period 1991-2002. Concernedly, 34 affected districts have more than 75%

21
of their total area flooded. The morphometric analysis of the fluvial network, which extends for 3,632
km, describes the high extension in Viseu, A. Corrêa and Bragança.The spatial and statistical analysis
of the data of each one of the variables yields a characterization of the socioeconomic vulnerability in
the NE Pará region:
The total population of the year 2000 in the study area, 539,324 inhabitants (around 8% of the
total population of Pará) is not spatially distributed homogeneously. Major concentrations being
observed in urban areas. 171,548 people reside in the capital cities of the municipalities of Bragança,
Capanema, Vigia, Salinópolis, Viseu and Igarapé-Açu. The coastal zone has a very low demographic
density (33 inhab./km2); however, there are sectors where this parameter exceeds the number of 3,000
inhab./km2 reaching almost 10,000 inhab./km2 as the localities of Primavera, Bragança, Emborai (A.
Corrêa), Caratateua (Bragança), Colares, Vigia, Viseu, Salinópolis and Fernando Belo (Viseu).

Table 3. Parameters used to assess the socioeconomic dimension vulnerability. M= Municipal district, CCD=
Census collection district.
Spatial
Parameters Significance Calculation method
features
People in hazard prone areas 1. Total Population (2000)
increase society’s vulnerability
Demographic CCD
even when disaster reduction 2. Total population affected by floods
measures are adopted. (2000)=(Total population) x (A 6 )

Population Density Rough measure of historic and

present urban development Total population per M (2000) /Area of M M
pressures in the coast.

Children They suffer disproportionately 1. Total population (2000)

Population and are among the first CCD
2. Population affected by Floods
(0-4 years-old) causalities in emergencies.
(2000)=(Children population) x (A2)
They suffer disproportionately 1. Total population (2000)
Elderly Population
Brazilian population life
(older than 70 CCD
expectancy is 68.5 years, for 2. Population affected by floods
years old)
women. (2000)=(Elderly population) x (A2)
“Non-Local” Living permanent or 1. Total population (2000)
Population (born temporarily, they are not
CCD
in a different familiar with the local hazards, 2. Population affected by floods
place). settling in risk prone areas. (2000)=(“Non-Local” population) x (A2)
Disproportionate consequences,
due to the poor social
Poverty Human Development Index values M
marginalization and lack of
access to resources.
Higher economic activities, 25% of the ICMS´s Tax 7 belongs to the
Municipal Wealth properties, and infrastructure municipalities, following criteria as area, M
works exposed to the impacts. population, and good’s value.

6
% of the inundated area of the CCD
7
The ICMS´s Tax (Imposto sobre Operações relativas à Circulação de Mercadorias e sobre a Prestações de
Serviços), main resource of the municipalities, is applied to the circulation of products and services of interstate
and inter-municipal transport.

22
 Of the total population of children (114,348), about 30% of them are concentrated in the
capital cities of Bragança and Capanema as well as in some districts of Viseu. The total population of
elderly is only 3,913 people, and 47% being concentrated in the districts of Salinópolis, S. J. de
Pirabas, Marapanim, Viseu, Maracanã, and Fernando Belo (Viseu). Finally, from the 5,095 “non-local
population”, 61% concentrate in industrial (Capanema), tourist (Salinópolis), agricultural (Igarape-
Açu), and port (Vigia, Bragança, S. J. de Pirabas and A. Corrêa) districts. Approximately 85,172
people live in flood-prone areas, and 40% of them are concentrated in the urban areas of only three
municipalities (Salinópolis, S. J. de Pirabas and Marapanim). 16,775 children live in affected areas;
however, 45% of them are grouped in six districts - Salinópolis, S. J. de Pirabas, Viseu, Marapanim,
Quatipuru and Fernando Belo (Viseu). 91.4% of the elderly affected are concentrated principally in the
urban area of Salinópolis and coastal districts of the municipality of Viseu. 907 “non-local” people are
affected, living mainly in few coastal districts -Salinópolis, S. J. de Pirabas, Quatipuru and
Marapanim. As a general trend, very low values of the HDI and economic resources are shown for
every municipality of the study area.
Taking into account the relevance of each variable in the construction of the natural hazards
CVI (table 4) and the definition explained in figure 4, the natural, socioeconomic and total
vulnerability of the NE coast of the State of Pará is analyzed.

Table 4. Classification and weight of each variable, considering their relevance in the construction of the CVI.

Variables Weight

Affected population (Total; Non-local Population; Children, and elderly) 1

Socio-economic
vulnerability

Population Density 0.5

Non-local Population, Children, Elderly 0.25
Total population 2000; Municipal Budget 2000; Poverty. 0.125

Coastline length, Flooding area; Protection measures, emergency relief historic

1
Vulnerability

cases; total length of fluvial system.

Natural

Coastal features 0.5

Continentality; coastline complexity; %of flooding area; drainage density; split
0.25
ratio.

Considering the values of the socio-economic dimension of CVI it is possible to identify two
regions (i) near the coastline, with moderate to very high vulnerability values and (ii) distant from
coastline, with very low-to-low vulnerability values (Figure 9). The first region consists of 51 districts
(14% of the total) and an area of 1,909 km2 (12% of the total area). The urban area of Salinópolis is
the only one characterized as very highly vulnerable. The others - highly vulnerable - are the capital
cities of São Caetano de Odivelas, Salinópolis, S. J. de Pirabas, S. J. da Ponta, Marapanim, Quatipuru,
Maracanã, Bragança, Viseu, and A. Corrêa, as well as some others few districts.

23
 Considering the values of the natural dimension of CVI, it is possible to identify three regions
that are characterized by (i) high and very high vulnerability, (ii) moderate vulnerability, and (iii) very
low and low vulnerability (Figure 10). The first region, located near the coastline, is a continuous area
of 5,357 km2 (33% of the total) consisting of the capital cities of Viseu, Marapanim, Maracanã,
Curuçá, Bragança, A. Corrêa, Tracuataeua and, Quatipuru, as well as of the districts of Fernandes Belo
and São João do Piria (Viseu), Japerica (S. J. de Pirabas), Ponta de Ramos, Lauro Sodre and Murajá
(Curuçá), Aturai and Itapixuna (A. Corrêa), Maruda (Marapanim), São Roberto and Boa Esperança
(Maracanã), and Caratateua and Tijoca (Bragança). The second sector - 35% of the total area - is
concentrated in the SE area and some discontinuous districts on the NW area of the coastal zone.
Finally, the third sector, which represents very low and low values of vulnerability, is defined at SW
and W area of the coastal zone. In this category, Vigia and Colares deserves special attention due to
their geographical position near to the coastline and their low natural vulnerability.

Figure 9 NE coastal zone of the State of Pará: Spatial distribution of the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index.
The analysis of the total vulnerability of the NE coastal area of the State of Pará (Figure 11) defines
two regions with (i) moderate to very high vulnerability, and (ii) very low and low vulnerability. The
area of the first region (8,614 km2, 54% of the total) is distributed among 158 CCD (42% of the total)
most of them near the coastline. This sector, where around 270,600 persons live (50% of the total
population), is represented by the capital cities of Viseu, S. J. de Pirabas, Salinópolis, Marapanim,
Maracanã, Bragança, Tracateua, Quatipuru, Curuçá, A. Corrêa, S. J. da Ponta, and São Caetano de
Odivelas, as well as by the districts of Fernandes Belo and S. J. do Piria, Japerica, Caratateua, Nova

24
Mocajuba and Tijoca (Bragança), Aturai, Emborai and Ipixuna (A. Corrêa), Boa Esperança and São
Roberto (Maracanã), Ponta de Ramos, Lauro Sodre and Murajá (Curuçá), and Marudá. In most
districts, the variables related to natural vulnerability dimension prevail, while in a few sectors, mainly
in the urban areas and/or capitals of the municipalities (e.g. Salinopolis, S. J. de Pirabas, Marapanim,
Quatipuru), those which prevail are the variables of the socio-economic vulnerability dimension.

Figure 10. NE coastal zone of the State of Pará: Spatial distribution of the Natural Vulnerability Index.

7. Conclusions
The results obtained in this study have a high confidence in the observations and descriptions made in
many localities of the NE Pará region and should be a solid base to launch and support ICZM program
of the State of Pará. However, the conclusions presented here should be carefully considered, always
remembering that they are the result of a “reality model” and not of the reality itself. The validity of
the results obtained through this method is limited to the study area (changing the area examined, the
values of the variables can be notably dilated and/or reduced); degree of system understanding
(characterize the variables chosen and their relative significance (weight), and subject to GIS errors
(related to the age of the data, density observations, classification systems, position accuracy, and
interpolation of points or linear data into polygon boundaries that do not have the same dimensions).

25
Figure 11. NE coastal zone of the State of Pará: Spatial distribution of the Total Vulnerability Index.
Naturally, it is not possible to guarantee the identification of all the processes or parameters
that determine natural and socio-economic vulnerability. As described above, some key variables that
are desirable for VA have not been available in the study area at the time this research was carried out.
Most urgently needed data are those on (i) low-lying topography (i.e. extent of the flood zone), (ii)
climatic and hydrographic data of higher-resolution (e.g. local tidal gauge records) and (iii)
incremental erosion rates (e.g. mid- to long-term cliff and shoreline retreat). However, it is hardly to
be expected that trustworthy information on these variables will be available in the near future,
imposing some limitation to a strictly quantitative vulnerability assessment. It is important to highlight
that the proposed method also allows flexibility for utilizing a wide range of data and therefore,
additional indicators could perhaps be added as more/better information becomes available.
Vulnerability is defined by a combination of social and environmental factors that could
change over shorter or longer time spans. Therefore, the current vulnerability (expressed as CVI
values) should not be considered as constant; they are likely to change through time as well. Changes
in the social causes of vulnerability often happen much more rapidly (e.g. in a few decades) than many
environmental changes. Yet some studies also intended to evaluate and predict of possible changes in
coastal morphology (Woodroffe, 1990) and mangrove ecosystems (Ellison, 1994) over time scales
from decades to a century. That is why future modifications (short- and long-term) in the spatial

26
distribution of natural hazards and an increase in the magnitude of the resulting coastal vulnerability
might be expected in NE Brazil, considering the scenarios of future climate change and of regional
socio-economic development. Thus, an update of this first analysis, presented here, should be done
periodically (e.g. every 10 years).
Even when taking into consideration the shortcomings of the present-day results, the absence
of some “hard” variables and the uncertainty of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: why is it
so important to assess this coastal zone’s overall vulnerability to natural hazard and, for this reason, to
create a CVI? A VA is crucial for starting and supporting a program of ICZM in the study region. To
approach the ICZM perspective basic research on vulnerability aspects is a key element; it is needed
for the outline and implementation of coastal zone management guidelines as well as for the
development of disaster relief policies. Because in countries like Brazil some response options to
natural hazard impacts, both technical and institutional, might take decades to become fully effective,
it is crucial then to describe adaptation options as soon as possible and to begin with the
implementation of mitigation activities even with some gaps in information and system’s knowledge
remaining. Is not advisable to wait the full time in order to obtain all the information and knowledge
on vulnerability or to resolve the existent uncertainties. This general rule is even more relevant for a
rapidly developing region such as the northeast coastal zone of the State of Pará.

Acknowledgements

This study is a result of (1) Millenium Project – NEC of the Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e
Tecnologia (CNPq) and (2) the cooperation between the Centre of Tropical Marine Ecology (ZMT),
Bremen, Germany and the UFPa, Belém, Brazil, under the Governmental Agreement on Cooperation
in the Field of Scientific Research and Technological Development between Germany and Brazil
financed by the German Ministry of Education, Science, Research and Technology (BMBF).
(MADAM – Mangrove Dynamics and Management, Project number: 03F0154A) and the CNPq.

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