FMP Ii
FMP Ii
Interest Rates
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© EduPristine For FMP-II (2016)
Agenda
This reading also covers the following readings from Valuation and Risk Models
Spot, forward and Par Rates
Returns, Spreads and Yields
Interest rate is the amount of money a borrower promises to pay to the lender over and above the
principal amount
• Treasury Rates: This is the rate an investor receives when he invests in Treasury bills and Treasury bonds.
Treasury bills are short term while Treasury bonds are longer term (> 1 year)
• Corporate bond rates: These are rates on long term bonds issued by a corporate
• LIBOR: This is the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) and the rate at which banks make a large wholesale
deposit or loan with/to another bank
1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 month LIBORs
Opportunity cost for AA rated banks
Not entirely risk free
• Repo rates and Reverse Repo: Repo rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from the central bank.
Reverse Repo rate is the rate at which the central bank borrows money from banks
• A Repurchase agreement (also known as a repo or Sale and Repurchase Agreement) allows a borrower to use
a financial security as collateral for a cash loan at a fixed rate of interest
• A repo is equivalent to a cash transaction combined with a forward contract
There are many ways to calculate interest rates – annual, semi annual, quarterly, continuously
compounding and so on
Each rate can be expressed in the form of another rate. For example an interest rate of 10%
compounded semi-annually would fetch (1 + 10% / 2) * (1 + 10% / 2) = 1.1025 (remember
6months rate is 10% / 2) on $1 after one year. This is equivalent of 10.25% annual rate
Amount compounded annually would be given by:
• A = P (1+ r)t
A terminal amount
P principal amount
r annual rate of interest
t number of years for which the principal is invested
If amount compounded n times a year then:
• A = P ( 1+ r/n )nt
When n ∞ then we call it continuous compounding:
• A = Pert (this formula is derived using limits and continuity)
If the interest rate is 10% per annum compounded continuously, then what is the effective annual
interest rate?
If the interest rate is 10% per annum compounded semi-annually then what is the equivalent
continuously compounded interest rate.
A = 1(1+10%/2)2 = 1e(rx1)
=> 1.1025 = er
=> r = 0.09758 = 9.758%
• Rm = m[e^(Rc/m) – 1]
A bond is a debt security usually issued by a company or the government to raise funds
Example: A company ABC issues bonds of worth $100. An investor ‘X’ buys the bond by paying
$100 to the company ABC. ABC promises to repay the money back to X after 5 years and also pay
5% of the $100 principle every year, semi-annually
In the above example:
• Face Value: $100
• Coupon rate: 5%
• Time to maturity: 5 years
C+P
C C C C
Bonds are either zero coupon bonds (having no interest payments) or coupon bonds
(with periodic interest payments)
The price of a bond is the present value of all the coupon payment and the final principal payment
received at the end of its life
1
T
1
B Ce Pe
rt rT
(1 YTM)
n
1
t 1 B I F
• B the bond price YTM (1 YTM) n
• C coupon payment
• r zero interest rate at time t
• P bond principal
• T time to maturity
The yield of a bond is the discount rate (applied to all future cash flows) at which the present
value of the bond is equal to its market price
• Yield to Maturity = Investor’s Required Rate of Return
The par yield is the coupon rate at which the present value of the cash flows equal to the par
value (principal value) of the bond
If we are looking at a semi-annual 5 year coupon bond with a par value of $100 then the coupon
payment would be solved using the following equation:
5
100 (C / 2)e rt 100e 5 r
t 1
Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yield 12%
Coupon payments 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Principal payment 100
PV factor 0.892857 0.797193878 0.711780248 0.635518078 0.567427 0.506631 0.452349 0.403883 0.36061 0.321973
Total PVs 6.25 5.580357143 4.982461735 4.448626549 3.971988 3.546418 3.166445 2.827183 2.52427 34.45114
Bond price 71.74888
Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yield 13%
Coupon payments 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Principal payment 100
PV factor 0.884956 0.783146683 0.693050162 0.613318728 0.54276 0.480319 0.425061 0.37616 0.332885 0.294588
Total PVs 6.19469 5.482026784 4.851351136 4.293231094 3.79932 3.36223 2.975425 2.633119 2.330194 31.52095
Bond price 67.44254
In the case of treasury rates there are some key facts to know:
• Treasury bills are issued at a discount from face value and are paid at their par (face amount) at maturity.
The purchase price is expressed as a price per hundred dollars
• Bills are sold at a discount. The discount rate is determined at auction
• Bills pay interest only at maturity. The interest is equal to the face value minus the purchase price
• Bills are sold in increments of $100. The minimum purchase is $100
Boot Strap Method to determine zero rates
• Consider the bond prices of Treasury bonds given below in column 4. Calculate the continuously
compounded zero rates for 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and 24months
Continuously
Bond Principal Time to Maturity Annual Coupon Bond Price Compounded 0-
rate
100 0.5 10 99.5 10.76
100 1.0 10 98.4 11.43
100 1.5 10 96.5 12.31
100 2.0 10 94.3 13.01
A forward rate agreement (FRA) is an over the counter agreement where the forward interest rate,
Ft1,t2 ,is fixed for a certain principal between times T1 and T2
The payer of the fixed interest rate is also known as the borrower or the buyer. The buyer hedges against
the risk of rising interest rates, while the seller hedges against the risk of falling interest rates
Payment to the long at settlement = Notional Principal X (Rate at settlement – FRA Rate) (days/360)
----------------------------------------------------------
1 + (Rate at settlement) (days / 360)
Duration it is the measure of how long on an average the holder of the bond has to wait before he
receives his payments on the bond
A coupon paying bond’s duration would be lower than n as the holder gets some of his payments
in the form of coupons before n years
Macaulay’s duration: is the weighted average of the times when the payments are made. And the
weights are a ratio of the coupon paid at time t to the present bond price
n
n*Mt *C
t (1 y)
(1 y) n
Macaluay Duration t 1
Where:
• t = Respective time period
• C = Periodic coupon payment
• y = Periodic yield
• n = Total no of periods
• M = Maturity value
Macaulay duration is also used to measure how sensitive a bond or a bond portfolio's price is to
changes in
interest rates
A bond’s interest rate risk is affected by:
• Yield to maturity
• Term to maturity
• Size of coupon
From Macaulay’s equation we get a key relationship:
B
DY
B
In the case of a continuously compounded yield the duration used is modified duration given as:
Macaulay Duration
D*
r
1
n
Consider a bond trading at 96.54 with duration of 4.5 years. In this case:
• ΔB = - 96.54* 4.5 Δy => ΔB = -434.43 Δy
• If there is 10 basis points increase ( + Δy) in the yield then the bond price would change by:
• ΔB = -434.43 * ( 0.001)
• ΔB = -0.43443
• Hence, B = 96.54 – 0.43443 = 96.10
Tangent
Y* Yield
The convexity of the price / YTM graph reveals two important insights:
• The price rise due to a fall in YTM is greater than the price decline due to a rise in YTM, given an identical
change in the YTM
• For a given change in YTM, bond prices will change more when interest rates are low than when they are high
To make the convexity of a semi-annual bond comparable to that of an annual bond, we can divide
the convexity by 4
In general, to convert convexity to an annual figure, divide by m2, where m is the number of
payments per year
We can approximate the change in a bond’s price for a given change in yield by using duration and
convexity:
VB D Mod i VB 0.5 C VB i
2
If yields rise by 1% per period, then by what price will the bond fall by? Assume C = 16.65.
VB 359
. 0.01 964.54 0.5 16.75 964.54 0.01
2
34.63 0.81 3382
.
Note:
The 1st term “-D x ∆y x P” , can either be a positive or a negative amount, indicating an increase or
decrease in price respectively. Depending on the sign of ∆y.
The 2nd term “0.5 x C x (∆y)2 x P”, will always be a positive amount.
16
14
12
Yield Spread
10
Percent
0
1 mth 3 mths 6 mths 1 yr 2yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 30 yrs
Discuss the yield curve below and the economic impacts it conveys:
Yield
Maturity
What is the 1.5 year par yield of a $100 bond when the zero rates (Continuous Compounded) on
6months, 12 months and 18 months are 4%, 4.5% and 5%?
Sol: Let it be C
100 = C*e-0.5*.04 + C*e-1*.045 + (100 + C)*e-1.5*.05
100 = C*(0.9801987 + 0.955997 + 0.927743) + 92.7743
C = 7.225651/2.863939
C = 2.523
Coupon = 2.523*2 = 5.05%
Day count defines the way in which interest is accrued over time. Day count conventions normally
used in US are:
• Actual / actual treasury bonds
• 30 / 360 corporate bonds
• Actual/360 money market instruments
The interest earned between two dates
The prices for treasury bonds are quoted in dollars and 1/32nd of a dollar
• $82–27 is equivalent to $82.84375
Cash price / dirty price is the price at which the investor buys a bond from the market
• Cash price = Quoted price + accrued interest
Accrued interest is the interest which the nearest coupon that is due generates
Conversion price
When a bond is delivered the party with the short position, the amount transacted is:
• Quoted futures price + accrued interest
• Where, Quoted futures price = settlement price * conversion factor
The conversion factor is equal to the quoted price the bond would pay per dollar or principal on
the first day of the delivery month on the assumption that the interest rate for all maturities
equals 6% per annum (with semi annual compounding)
The last coupon payment of $10 was paid on a treasury bond on June 19, 2009. The next coupon
is due on December 19, 2009 and we are currently on September 1, 2009. If the quoted price is
$82–27 then the cash price would be?
At any given time during the delivery month there are many bonds that can be delivered in the
CBOT futures contract
The party with the short position can chose to deliver the cheapest bond when it comes to
delivery, hence he would chose the cheapest to deliver bond
Net pay out for delivery (he has to buy a bond and deliver it):
• Quoted bond price – (settlement price * conversion factor)
• Consider an example in the table below where the short position holder has 3 options for delivery.
His cheapest to deliver bond is Bond 2
Cheapest to Deliver Bond (All figures in $)
Settlement Future Price: 94.23
Bond Quoted Bond Price Conversion Factor
1 99.6 1.033
2 135.67 1.432
3 122.45 1.257
DV01: The price value of basis point (PVBP) or dollar value of basis point (DV01) change is the
absolute change in the bond price from one basis point change in yield.
• DV01 = price at YTM0 – price at YTM1
YTM0 = the initial YTM
YTM1 = the YTM 1 basis point above or below YTM0 (YTM1 = YTM0 ± 0.0001)
Considering a situation where an asset that is interest rate dependant is hedged using an interest
rate futures contract
In such cases the number of contracts to hedge is given by the equation below:
PDP
N*
FC DF
When hedges are constructed using interest rates it is important to note that interest rate and
futures prices move in opposite directions . So if one is expecting to lose money when the interest
rate falls, one should long futures contracts so that they can hedge their losses by gains in futures
prices
An investor has invested $10m in government bonds and is expecting the interest rates to rise in
the next 6 months so he decides to hedge himself by interest rate futures. It is currently June and
he decides to use the December T-bond futures contract for the hedge. If the current futures price
is 97.2345 and the duration of the portfolio of government bonds at the end of 6 months is 7.1
years. The duration of the cheapest to deliver T-bond in December is given as 9.121 years. What
position should the investor take in the futures contract? How many futures contract should long /
short for the hedge if each contract is for the delivery of $100,000 face value?
10,000,000 7.1
80
(97.2345100,000 / 100) 9.121
Negative Convexity
Callable bonds exhibit negative convexity when yields fall below certain level.
At lower yield, there is incentive for the issuer to call the bond.
Price curve of the bond bends away from the normal curve thereby exhibiting negative convexity.
In barbell strategy, investor uses the bonds of short and long maturities and does not invest in the
bonds of intermediate maturity.
In bullet strategy, investor uses the bonds concentrated in intermediate maturity range.
In volatile rate environment, barbell strategy is preferred over bullet strategy.
Single factor approach assumes that all the future rate changes are driven by single factor.
The same change in interest rate is assumed for the entire yield curve.
In practice, change in short term interest rate might be different from the change in long term
interest rate.
Same hedging instrument cannot be used for hedging the change in short term interest rate and
long term interest rate.
Key Rates are the rates selected at key point on the yield curve. These are usually 2, 5, 10 and 30
year rates.
Key rate exposures hedge risk by using rates from a small number of available liquid bonds.
Partial ‘01 is used to measure the risk of the bond or swap portfolio in terms of liquid money
markets and swap instruments.
Forward ’01 is used to measure the risk of the bond or swap portfolio in terms of shifts in the
forward rates.
Key Rate Shift technique is a approach to nonparallel shift in the yield curve.
This technique allows to determine changes in all the rates due to the changes in key rates.
Choice has to be made as to which key rates shifts and how the key rate movement relate to prior
or subsequent maturity key rates.
Key Rate ‘01 measures the dollar change in the value of the bond for every basis point shift in the
key rate
• Key Rate ‘01 = (-1/10,000) * (Change in Bond Value/0.01%)
Key rate duration provides the approximate percentage change in the value of the bond
• Key Rate Duration = (-1/BV) * (Change in Bond Value/Change in Key rate)
Introduction to Options
• What are Options
• Intrinsic Value of Options
• Returns to Option buyers and sellers
• Put Call Parity
• Bounds and Option Values
• Determinants of Option Values
• Some special cases
• Summary
Options are contracts that give its buyer the right to buy or sell a particular asset
• In future
• At a pre-decided price (i.e. exercise or strike price)
• Without any obligations
The seller of the option collects a payment (Premium) from the buyer for providing the option
Types of options:
• Call or Put Options
Call Option: Gives option holder the right to buy the asset at an agreed price
Put Options: Gives option holder the right to sell the asset at an agreed price
• European or American Options
European options: Are those that can only be exercised on expiration
American options: May be exercised on any trading day on or before expiration
C.
A. European options cannot be exercised early
B. Small dividends will not make much of a difference in the price fall in the stock
C. A deep in the money put option should always be exercised early because it is likely that the stock might
recover from the fall
D. Though this might be profitable if the stock prices significantly fall after the ex-dividend date but the third
option is likely to provide more profit
Assuming the stock price and all other variables remain the same what will be the impact of an
increase in the risk-free interest rate on the price of an American put option?
A. No impact
B. Negative
C. Positive
D. Cannot be determined
B. (Negative)
Intrinsic value: is the maximum of zero and the value of the option if the option were exercised
immediately
• At the money:
When the price of the underlying is the same as the strike price of the option, the option is termed at the money
and exercising it carries a nil pay-off
• In the money:
When the price of the underlying is greater than the strike price carried by a call option, the call option is termed in
the money, as exercising it results in a positive pay off
When the price of the underlying is less than the strike price carried by a put option, the put option is termed in
the money, as exercising it results in a positive pay off
• Out of the money:
When the price of the underlying is less than the strike price carried by a call option, the call option is termed out
of the money, as exercising it will result in a nil pay off
When the price of the underlying is greater than the strike price carried by a put option, the put option is termed
out of the money, as exercising it will result in a nil pay off
Call-Pay off
3 0 2 5 4
4 0 1 5
5 0 0 5
2
6 1 0 5
7 2 0 5
8 3 0 5 0
0 4 8 12
9 4 0 5
Stock Price
10 5 0 5
Put-Pay off
2 0 3 5
3 0 2 5 4
4 0 1 5
5 0 0 5 2
6 1 0 5
7 2 0 5
0
8 3 0 5 0 4 8 12
9 4 0 5 Stock Price
10 5 0 5
Long call payoff = Max (ST – X,O) Long put payoff = Max (X – ST,O)
0 0
X ST X ST
X X
0 ST 0 ST
0 5 0 5
1 4 1 5
2 3 2 5
3 2 3 5
4 1 4 5
12
10
Total payoff
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Share price
According to Put Call parity for European options, purchasing a put option on ABC stock will be
equivalent to
A. Buying a call, buying ABC stock and buying a Zero Coupon bond
B. Buying a call, selling ABC stock and buying a Zero Coupon bond
C. Selling a call, selling ABC stock and buying a Zero Coupon bond
D. Buying a call, selling ABC stock and selling a Zero Coupon bond
B: p + S0 = c + Ke-rT
Put Call parity provides an equivalence relationship between the Put and Call options of a
common underlying and carrying the same strike price.
It can be expressed as:
• Value of call + Present value of strike price = value of put + share price
If value of put is not available, it can be derived as:
• Value of put = Value of call + present value of strike price - share price
Put-call parity relationship, assumes that the options are not exercised before expiration day, i.e. it
follows European options.
This holds true for American options only if they are not exercised early.
In case of dividend-paying stocks, either the amount of dividend paid should be known in advance
or it is assumed that the strike price factors the future dividend payment.
The mathematical representation of Put Call Parity is:
X d
Pr emium(C ) PV of strike price PV of dividends
1 rt 1 rt
= Initial stock price (S) + Put premium (P)
Put Call Parity is valid only for European options, for American Options this relationship turns into an inequality
Consider a 1-year European call option with a strike price of $27.50 that is currently valued at
$4.10 on a $25 stock. The 1-year risk-free rate is 6%.What is the value of the corresponding put
option?
A. 4.1
B. 5
C. 6
D. 25
p + S0 = c + D + Xe-rt
4
Call payoff
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Share price
4
Call payoff
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Share price
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© EduPristine For FMP-II (2016)