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Module X: Demand Analysis - I Lecture: Modal Split Model: Example

This document discusses modal split models, which aim to determine the number of trips taken using different transportation modes (e.g. private transport, bus, train) given travel demand between locations. Modal split models use choice models to calculate the probability that a particular mode will be chosen based on factors like travel time, cost, and wait time for each mode. An example problem calculates the perceived utility for each available mode between two zones based on these factors, and uses a logit model to determine the predicted number of trips by each mode.

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90 views2 pages

Module X: Demand Analysis - I Lecture: Modal Split Model: Example

This document discusses modal split models, which aim to determine the number of trips taken using different transportation modes (e.g. private transport, bus, train) given travel demand between locations. Modal split models use choice models to calculate the probability that a particular mode will be chosen based on factors like travel time, cost, and wait time for each mode. An example problem calculates the perceived utility for each available mode between two zones based on these factors, and uses a logit model to determine the predicted number of trips by each mode.

Uploaded by

Jigar Raval
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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  Module X : Demand Analysis - I

Lecture : Modal Split Model

   
 
  Modal split models aim to determine the number of trips on different modes given the travel demand between
  different pairs of nodes (zones). These models try to mathematically describe the mode choice phase of the
sequential demand analysis procedure. Generally, choice models are used for modal split analysis. That is, it is
  assumed that the probability of choosing a particular mode is the probability that the perceived utility from that
  mode is greater than the perceived utility from each of the other available modes. Since, choice models were
  discussed while presenting destination choice models in the section on trip distribution they are not repeated
  here. This lecture only discusses the factors which are generally assumed to affect the perceived utility of
  modes. An example problem is also solved.
 
  The factors which affect the choice of a mode (and hence the perceived utility from a mode) are:
 
   Socio-economic factors like income, automobile ownership, age, and so on.
   Service-related factors like in-vehicle travel time, access to public transport (or transit systems),
frequency of transit system operation, out-of-pocket cost, and the like.
 
Example

For a particular zone pair, three modes of travel between the zones exist -- private transport like automobiles
(PT), bus (B), and urban rapid transit system like local trains (RT). It is given that all trip-makers have access to
private transport and that the perceived utility of a mode m, i.e. ,   is given by

where,

is the in-vehicle travel time in minutes for mode m


is the out-of-pocket cost in rupees for mode m

 is the waiting time in minutes for mode m , and

 is a dummy variable which is 1 when the mode is private transport, 0 otherwise.

Assuming that the variable values are as shown in Table 3 and that 1000 trips are made from the origin zone to
the destination zone determine the number of trips made by the different modes. Use Logit model.

Table 3: Variable values used in Example 4 on modal split models.


Mode Variable values

(mins.) (Rs.) (mins)


PT 65 60 0 1
B 75 5 5 0
RT 25 8 20 0

Solution

First, calculate the perceived utility for each mode:

Next, we use Logit model to determine the probability  , that a particular mode m, will be chosen.

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