Ch09 Tool Kit
Ch09 Tool Kit
413
414
415 MicroDrive's beta:
416 bi = 1.43
417
418
419 An Illustration of the CAPM Approach: MicroDrive’s Cost of Equity, r s
420
421 Assuming the risk-free rate (i.e., the current yield on a long-term Treasury bond) equals
422 5%, the market risk premium is 6%, and the MicroDrive's beta is 1.43, what is
MicroDrive's cost of stock?
423
424
425 Risk-free rate 5.0%
426 Market risk premium 6.0%
427 Beta 1.43
428
429 rs = rRF + (RPM) (bi)
430 rs = 5.0% + 6.0% 1.43
A B C D E F G H
431 rs = 5.0% + 8.6%
432 rs = 13.58%
433
434
435 9-7 Dividend-Yield-Plus-Growth-Rate, or Discounted Cash
436 Flow (DCF), Approach
437
438 The simplest DCF model assumes that growth is expected to remain constant, and rs = D1/P0 + g.
439
440
441 Estimating Inputs for the DCF Approach
442
443 The next expected dividend is easy to estimate, and the stock price can be determined
444 readily. However, it is not easy to determine the marginal investor's expected future
445 growth rate. Three approaches are commonly used: (1) historical growth rates, (2)
retention growth model, and (3) analysts' forecasts.
446
447
448 1. Historical Growth Rates
449
450 Historical growth estimates are usually not good estimates of expected future growth
451 except for a few very stable and mature companies.
452
453
454 2. Retention Growth Model
455
456 Another method for finding the growth is utilizing the sustainable growth rate, found by
multiplying the expected future return on equity (ROE) times the expected future
457 retention ratio (i.e., the percentage of net income that is not paid out as dividends). This
458 is:
459
460 g = (Retention rate) (ROE) = (1 – Payout rate) (ROE)
461
462 Suppose a firm's expected ROE is 14.5% and it pays out 63% of its earnings. What is the
463 firm's sustainable growth rate?
464
465 Payout rate = 63%
466 ROE = 14.50%
467
468 g = (1 – Payout rate) x (ROE)
469 g= 37% x 14.50%
470 g= 5.4%
471
A B C D E F G H
472 3. Analysts' Forecasts
473
474 A third method for estimating the growth rate is to use analysts' forecasts. Value Line provides
475 estimated dividends. IBES, Zack's, and many brokerage firms provide estimates of growth rates, which
476 can be used as proxies for dividend growth. These often have a forecast for the next five years and
477 then a long-term forecast for the period after five years, which requires the use of a nonconstant multi-
stage growth model, as described in the Web Extension.
478
479
480
481 An Illustration of the DCF Approach
482
483 Suppose a firm's stock trades at $32 and its next dividend is expected to be $1.82. If the
484 expected growth rate is 5.5%, what is the firm's cost of equity?
485
486 P0 = $32.00
487 D1 = $1.82
488 g= 5.4%
489
490 rs = D1 ÷ P0 + g
491 r s
= $1.82 ÷ $32.00 + 5.4%
492 rs = 11.1%
493
494
495 9-8 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
496
497 The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is calculated using the firm's target capital structure
498 together with its after-tax cost of long-term debt, after-tax cost of short-term debt, cost of preferred
499 stock, and cost of common equity.
500
501 WACC = Weighted average cost of capital
502 = wd rd(1 – T) + wstd(1 – T)rstd + wps rps + ws rs
503
504 A firm's target capital structure consists of the following capital structure. Using the relevant costs
505 calculated previously, what is the firm's weighted average cost of capital?
506
507 T= 40%
508 wd = 28% rd = 9.0%
509 w std
= 2% r std
= 10.0%
510 wps = 3% rps = 8.2%
511 ws = 67% rs = 13.6%
512
513 Sources of Capital
Short-
Long-term Preferred Common
514 Debt
term
Stock Stock
Debt
515
516 Pre-tax cost of capital source, r i: 9.00% 10.00% 8.16% 13.58%
517 After-tax cost of debt, (1-T)(ri): 5.40% 6.00%
518
519 Cost of capital component for WACC: 5.40% 6.00% 8.16% 13.58%
520 Target capital structure weight, w i: 28.00% 2.00% 3.00% 67.00% 100%
521
A B C D E F G H
522 Weighted component cost: 1.51% 0.12% 0.24% 9.10% 10.98%
523
524
525 WACC = 10.98%
526
527
528 9-9 Adjusting the Cost of Equity for Flotation Costs
529
530 A company's stock sells for $32 and its next dividend is expected to be $1.82, with
531 constant growth of 5.5%. What is the cost of equity using the DCF model?
532
533 P0 = $32.00
534 D1 = $1.82
535 g= 5.4%
536
537 rs = D1 ÷ P0 + g
538 rs = $1.82 ÷ $32.00 + 5.4%
539 rs = 11.1%
540
541 If the firm in the preceding question incurred a flotation cost of 12.5% for issuing new
542 stock, how much higher is its cost of equity from having to issue new common stock?
543
544 Flotation percentage cost (F) = 12.5%
545 Stock price = $32.00
546
547 Net proceeds after flotation costs = (Stock Price) (1 – F)
548 Net proceeds after flotation costs = $32.00 88%
549 Net proceeds after flotation costs = $28.00
550
551 Net proceeds after flotation costs = $28.00
552 D1 = $1.82
553 g= 5.4%
554
Net
555 rs = D1 ÷
Proceeds
+ g
514
515
516
517
518
519
520 = Sum
521
I J K L M N O P Q R
522 = Sum
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
S
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278 rM − Actual
return of 10-
year bond
S
rM − Actual
279 return of 10-
280 year bond
281
282
283 0.85
284 1.06
285 1.38
286 0.41
287 0.95
288 1.14
289 1.02
290 1.06
291 1.29
292 0.61
293 0.83
294 0.72
295 1.31
296 1.12
297 1.21
298 1.25
299 1.07
300 1.12
301 0.95
302 1.01
303 1.09
304 0.90
305 1.11
306 1.11
307 1.11
308 0.92
309 0.95
310 0.92
311 1.24
312 0.69
313 0.96
314 1.39
315 1.19
316 1.10
317 0.94
318 1.07
319 1.33
320 0.71
321 0.83
322 1.18
323 1.02
324 0.82
325 1.00
326 1.09
327
328
329
330
331
332
A B C D E F G
1 12/8/2012
2
3
4 Web Extension 9A: The Required Return Assuming Nonconstant Dividends and Stock Repurchases
5
6 As we explained in the chapter, two assumptions underlie the constant dividend growth model: (1)
7 firms do not repurchase any stock, and (2) growth in dividends will be constant. We now explain
how to estimate the required return when those assumptions are violated.
8
9
10 Estimating the Long-Term Growth Rate
11
12 The long-term constant growth rate should be approximately equal to the long-term growth rate in
13 sales revenue, which depends on prices and units sold. Prices will be determined by inflation in the
long-term, and units sold will depend on sustainable population growth.
14
15
16 The forward estimated inflation rate is the difference between yields on a regular 10-year Treasury
17 bond and an inflation protected 10-year Treasury bond, called a TIPS.
18
19 Yield on 10-year Treasury bond: 2.19%
20 Yield on 10-year TIPS: -0.08%
21 Forward estimate of inflation: 2.27%
22
23 Ibbotson provides the average inflation rate since 1926. The Fed also provides inflation data.
24
25 Historical inflation rate: 3.00%
26
27 Range in expected long-term inflation:
28
29 Forward estimate of inflation to Historical inflation rate
30 2.27% to 3.00%
31
32 We estimate expected inflation as the average of the inflation premium from the TIPS and the
33 historical average:
34
35 Our estimate of expected inflation: 2.64%
36
37
38 Estimates of long-term population growth range from:
39
40 Low estimate of population growth High estimate of population growth
41 1.00% 2.50%
42
43 Average of estimated population growth: 1.75%
44
45
46 Estimates of long-term sales growth rate (inflation plus population growth rate):
47
48 Low range High range
49 3.27% 5.50%
50
51 Average of range as an estimate of long-term sales growth, g: 4.39%
52
A B C D E F G
53
54 The Impact of Stock Repurchases on the Estimated Price
55
56 When there are repurchases, the growth rate in dividends per share changes.
57
58 - (r - g) r 1 g
59 g DPS
60 (r - g) 1 g
61
62 The constant growth model is:
63
64
65 D 0 1 g DPS
P̂0
66 r - g DPS
67
68
69 This can be rearranged to give this formula:
70
71
1 D 1 g
72 P̂0 0
73 r - g
74
75 The two formulas are equivalent, as shown in the following example.
76
77 g= 5.0%
78 α= 80.0%
79 rs = 12.0%
80 D0 = $2.00
81
82
- (r - g) r 1 g
83 g DPS = 6.329%
84 (r - g) 1 g
85
86
87
88
89
90 D 0 1 g DPS
91 P̂0
rs - g DPS
= $37.50
92
93
94 Alternatively:
95
96
97 1 D 1 g
98 P̂0 0 = $37.50
99 rs - g
100
101
102 Estimating the Required Return
103
104 In the textbook, we assumed constant growth and no repurchases. We now consider cases with
105 repurchases and a period of nonconstant growth, beginning with the case of repurchases but
constant growth.
In the textbook, we assumed constant growth and no repurchases. We now consider cases with
A and a periodBof nonconstant growth,
repurchases C Dwith the case
beginning E of repurchases
F butG
constant growth.
106
107
108 Repurchases and Constant Growth
109
110 If there are repurchase but still constant growth, then we can invert the constant growth formula to
111 solve for r.
112
113
114 D 0 1 g
r g
115 P0
116
117
118
119 Repurchases and a Period of Nonconstant Growth
120
121 It is often the case that a period of nonconstant growth is expected before growth becomes constant.
122 The valuation model for this situation is:
123
124
125
D t (1 g)
126 D1 r g
127 D2 Dt
P ̂_0
= 1 r 1 r 1 r t
128 1 2
1 r t
129
130
131
132
133 Estimating the Required Market Return when there are Repurchases and a Period of Nonconstant Growth
134
135
136 In recent years, companies in the S&P 500 aggregately have distributed as much cash to
137 shareholders in the form of stock repurchases as in the form of dividends. This implies that about
50% of distributions are in the form of dividends.
138
139
140 Percent of total distribution in the form of cash dividends = α = 50.0%
141
142
The next step is to estimate the total S&P dividend payouts for the next 2 years. S&P provides
143 historical data for earnings per share, and dividends per share. They also provide data for
144 estimated earnings per share for the next 2 years. We can use the historical data to estimate a
145 relationship between EPS and DPS, and then use that model and the estiamted EPS to estimate DPS.
146
147
148 We obtained data from the Standard and Poor's Web site:
149 http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/us
150
Under Categories, we selected S&P500. We then selected Download Index Data and Index Earnings.
151 This downloaded an Excel file with quarterly data for the S&P 500. We summed up the quarterly
152 data to get annual data. We also summed up the quarterly forecasted EPS to get the next 2 years
153 annual forecast of EPS. The data is shown below.
154
155
156
157
158
A B C D E F G
159
160
161 Annualized Data
162 Annual
Date Year Month S&P Price Annual EPS DPS Data for Regression Model
163 12/31/88 1988 12 277.72 $23.75 $9.75 Annual DPS
164 12/31/89 1989 12 353.40 $22.87 $11.06 $11.06
165 12/31/90 1990 12 330.22 $21.34 $12.09 $12.09
166 12/31/91 1991 12 417.09 $15.97 $12.20 $12.20
167 12/31/92 1992 12 435.71 $19.09 $12.39 $12.39
168 12/31/93 1993 12 466.45 $21.89 $12.58 $12.58
169 12/31/94 1994 12 459.27 $30.60 $13.17 $13.17
170 12/31/95 1995 12 615.93 $33.96 $13.79 $13.79
171 12/31/96 1996 12 740.74 $38.73 $14.90 $14.90
172 12/31/97 1997 12 970.43 $39.72 $15.50 $15.50
173 12/31/98 1998 12 1229.23 $37.71 $16.20 $16.20
174 12/31/99 1999 12 1469.25 $48.17 $16.69 $16.69
175 12/31/00 2000 12 1320.28 $50.00 $16.27 $16.27
176 12/31/01 2001 12 1148.08 $24.69 $15.74 $15.74
177 12/31/02 2002 12 879.82 $27.59 $16.07 $16.07
178 12/31/03 2003 12 1111.92 $48.74 $17.39 $17.39
179 12/31/04 2004 12 1211.92 $58.55 $19.44 $19.44
180 12/31/05 2005 12 1248.29 $69.83 $22.22 $22.22
181 12/31/06 2006 12 1418.30 $81.51 $24.88 $24.88
182 12/31/07 2007 12 1468.36 $66.18 $27.73 $27.73
183 12/31/08 2008 12 903.25 $14.88 $28.39 $28.39
184 12/31/09 2009 12 1115.10 $50.97 $22.41 $22.41
185 12/31/10 2010 12 1257.64 $77.35 $22.73 $22.73
186 12/30/11 2011 12 1257.60 $86.95 $26.43 $26.43
187 Forecast 2012 $97.83
188 2013 $111.42
189
190
191
192 We estimated the following model:
193
194 Dt = a + b Dt-1 + c EPSt + d (Change in EPS)
195
196 As shown by the regression results below, this model does a good job of predicting the dividend.
197
198 SUMMARY OUTPUT
199
200 Regression Statistics
201 Multiple R 0.986716949883
202 R Square 0.973610339186
203 Adjusted R Square 0.969443550637
204 Standard Error 0.938269321597
205 Observations 23
206
207 ANOVA
208 df SS MS F Significance F
209 Regression 3 617.1063324011 205.7021108 233.65965 4E-15
210 Residual 19 16.72663707716 0.88034932
211 Total 22 633.8329694783
A B C D E F G
212
213 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
214 Intercept 1.53893053677 0.678705357671 2.267450108 0.0352196 0.11838 2.9594771762
215 X Variable 1 0.696432840265 0.050795415378 13.71054523 2.6458E-11 0.59012 0.8027488665
216 X Variable 2 0.10809871281 0.014127370433 7.651722118 3.2254E-07 0.07853 0.137667639
217 X Variable 3 -0.094505735058 0.014811868418 -6.38040606 4.0416E-06 -0.1255 -0.0635041382
218
219 We then used the regression coefficients to estimate the predicted dividends.
220
Estimat
Estimated ed
221 coefficient coeffici
Predicted Estimated for lagged ent for
Year dividend, D intercept, a dividend, b Lagged D EPS, c Forecast EPS
222 2012 $29.49 1.539 0.696 $26.43 0.108 $97.83
223 2013 $32.84 1.539 0.696 $29.49 0.108 $111.42
224
225
226
227
228
229 Create a time line showing the predicted dividends for each year until growth in payouts becomes
230 constant. To do this, obtain estimates of the next 2 year's projected dividends for the market and the
231 long-term growth rate in CASH FLOWS after year 2.
232
233 Find the horizon value on the time line assuming constant growth and an initial assumption for the
234 required return on the market. Find the present value of the annual payouts and the present value
235 of the horizon value; this is the estimate of the value of the market index. If the difference between
the actual current value of the market index and the estimated value is not zero, adjust the input for
236 the required market return until the difference is zero.
237
238
239 Figure 9A-1:
240 Estimating the Forward-Looking Market Risk Premium
241
242 INPUTS:
243 Projected Year 1 dividend for S&P 500 = $29.49
244 Projected Year 2 dividend for S&P 500 = $32.84
245 Projected portion of distributions as dividends, α = 50.0%
246 Projected long-term constant growth rate in cash flow, g L = 4.39%
247 Actual price level of S&P 500 = $1,257.60
248
249 Key Input/Output: Estimate of rM
250 Key Input and Output: Estimate of r M = 9.17% Use Goal Seek to set
the blue cell to zero
by changing the
251 Price level of S&P 500: Actual - Estimated = $0.00 orange cell.
252
253 Time Line:
254 Year 0 1 2
255 Estimated dividend = $29.49 $32.84
256 Estimated P at Year 2 = [(D2/ α) (1+gL) ] / (rM − gL) = $1,433.70
257 Estimate price level of S&P 500 = (PV of dividends and P 2) = $1,257.60
258
H I J K L M N O
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
stimate of population 40
growth
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
H I J K L M N O
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133Growth
a Period of Nonconstant
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
H I J K L M N O
159
160
161
162
Data for Regression Model Date Year Month op esp
163 Lagged DPS Annual EPS Change in EPS 12/31/89 1989 12 $5.84
164 $9.75 $22.87 -$0.88 12/31/90 1990 12 $5.01
165 $11.06 $21.34 -$1.53 12/31/91 1991 12 $4.63
166 $12.09 $15.97 -$5.37 12/31/92 1992 12 $5.61
167 $12.20 $19.09 $3.12 12/31/93 1993 12 $7.16
168 $12.39 $21.89 $2.80 12/31/94 1994 12 $8.80
169 $12.58 $30.60 $8.71 12/31/95 1995 12 $9.78
170 $13.17 $33.96 $3.36 12/31/96 1996 12 $11.01
171 $13.79 $38.73 $4.77 12/31/97 1997 12 $11.29
172 $14.90 $39.72 $0.99 12/31/98 1998 12 $11.47
173 $15.50 $37.71 -$2.01 12/31/99 1999 12 $13.77
174 $16.20 $48.17 $10.46 12/31/00 2000 12 $13.11
175 $16.69 $50.00 $1.83 12/31/01 2001 12 $9.94
176 $16.27 $24.69 -$25.31 12/31/02 2002 12 $11.94
177 $15.74 $27.59 $2.90 12/31/03 2003 12 $14.88
178 $16.07 $48.74 $21.15 12/31/04 2004 12 $17.95
179 $17.39 $58.55 $9.81 12/31/05 2005 12 $20.19
180 $19.44 $69.83 $11.28 12/31/06 2006 12 $21.99
181 $22.22 $81.51 $11.68 12/31/07 2007 12 $15.22
182 $24.88 $66.18 -$15.33 12/31/08 2008 12 -$0.09
183 $27.73 $14.88 -$51.30 12/31/09 2009 12 $17.16
184 $28.39 $50.97 $36.09 12/31/10 2010 12 $21.93
185 $22.41 $77.35 $26.38 12/30/11 2011 12 $23.73
186 $22.73 $86.95 $9.60
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
H I J K L M N O
212
213 Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
214 0.1183838973093 2.9594771762
215 0.5901168140256 0.8027488665
216 0.0785297866685 0.137667639
217 -0.125507331947 -0.063504138
218
219
220
221 Estimated
coefficient for Forecast
change in EPS, d change in EPS
222 -0.095 $10.88
223 -0.095 $13.59
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
P Q R S T
159
160
161
salespers bookvalu
162 eps div hare e Index
163 $4.80 $2.86 353.40
164 $4.40 $3.12 330.22
165 $2.55 $3.04 417.09
166 $3.60 $3.03 435.71
167 $5.08 $3.09 466.45
168 $8.35 $3.34 459.27
169 $7.13 $3.55 615.93
170 $9.86 $3.79 740.74
171 $8.94 $3.95 970.43
172 $8.56 $4.00 1,229.23
173 $12.77 $4.05 $290.68 1,469.25
174 $9.07 $3.98 $191.03 $325.80 1,320.28
175 $5.45 $3.98 $189.10 $338.37 1,148.08
176 $3.00 $4.26 $165.94 $321.72 879.82
177 $13.16 $5.06 $178.85 $367.17 1,111.92
178 $13.94 $5.33 $210.14 $414.75 1,211.92
179 $17.30 $6.08 $232.52 $453.06 1,248.29
180 $20.24 $6.87 $248.20 $504.39 1,418.30
181 $7.82 $7.62 $268.16 $529.59 1,468.36
182 -$23.25 $7.15 $230.21 $451.37 903.25
183 $15.18 $5.66 $236.02 $513.58 1,115.10
184 $20.67 $6.03 $252.73 $579.14 1,257.64
185 $20.64 $7.28 $272.64 $613.14 1,257.60
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
SECTION 9-3
SOLUTIONS TO SELF-TEST
A company has outstanding long-term bonds with a face value of $1,000, a 10% coupon
rate, 25 years remaining until maturity, and a current market value of $1,214.82. If it pays
interest semiannually, what is the nominal annual pre-tax cost of debt? If the
company’s tax rate is 40%, what is the after-tax cost of debt?
N= 50
PV = ($1,214.82)
PMT = $50
FV = $1,000
I/YR = rd = 4.000%
Annualized rd = 8.000%
A-T rd = 4.800%
SECTION 9-4
SOLUTIONS TO SELF-TEST
A company’s preferred stock currently trades at $50 per share and it pays a $3
annual dividend. Flotation costs are equal to 3% of the gross proceeds. If the
company issues preferred stock, what is the cost of that stock?
rps 6.19%
SECTION 9-6
SOLUTIONS TO SELF-TEST
A company’s beta is 1.4, the yield on a 10-year T-bond is 5%, and the market risk
premium is 5.5%. What is rs?
Beta 1.40
10-year T-bond yield 4.0%
Market risk premium 4.5%
rs 10.30%
SECTION 9-7
SOLUTIONS TO SELF-TEST
A company’s estimated growth rate in dividends is 6%. Its current stock price is $40, and its
expected annual dividend is $2. Using the DCF approach, what is rs?
Growth 6.0%
Stock price $40.00
Expected dividend $2.00
rs 11.00%
SECTION 9-8
SOLUTIONS TO SELF-TEST
A firm has the following data: Target capital structure of 25% debt, 10% preferred stock,
and 65% common equity; Tax rate = 40%; rd = 7%; rps = 7.5%; and rs = 11.5%. Assume the
firm will not isssue new stock. What is this firm’s WACC?
wd 25%
wps 10%
ws 65%
Tax rate 40%
rd 7.0%
rps 7.5%
rs 11.5%
WACC 9.28%
SECTION 9-9
SOLUTIONS TO SELF-TEST
A firm has common stock with D1 = $3.00; P0 = $30; g = 5%; and F = 4%. If the firm must issue new stock,
what is its cost of external equity, re?
D1 $3.00
P0 $30.00
g 5.0%
F 4.0%
re 15.42%
ssue new stock,
SECTION 9-10
SOLUTIONS TO SELF-TEST
A company’s bond yield is 7%. If the appropriate over-own-bond-yield risk premium is 3.5%,
what is rs, based upon the bond--yield-plus-judgmental-risk-premium approach?
rs 10.50%