TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 43, 383-384 (1993)
Book Review
Alan L. Porter, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas W. Mason, Frederick A. Rossini, and Jerry
Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology, John Wiley & Sons, New York,
1991, 448 pages.
This book is intended to be a “basic textbook on technology forecasting for business
and engineering students” (Preface, p. v). It claims to be a “methods” book, presenting
“how-to” information on forecasting methods. One of the features of the book is that
it includes a computer disk with a “toolkit” of techniques for forecasting and managing
technology. The program is intended to make the methods presented in the book easier
to use. How well does the book fulfill these intentions? First, let’s look at how the book
is structured.
Part I, consisting of Chapters 1 through 5, is an introduction to planning and forecast-
ing. Chapter 3 places technology planning in the context of more general planning. Chap-
ter 4 relates technological forecasting to technology planning. Chapter 5 discusses how
forecasting projects can be organized and managed. This includes the use of Gantt and
PERT charts, which can be prepared using the computer toolkit.
Part II, consisting of Chapters6 through 14, presents methods for forecasting. Chapter
7 covers not only morphological models, but methods of stimulating creativity. The
computer toolkit contains a “creativity stimulation” program that attempts to trigger new
concepts by presenting random words. Chapter 8 describes the technique of monitoring
for precursors of innovation. Chapter 9 introduces extrapolation methods, both S curves
and trends. Chapter 10 presents the technical details of extrapolation. The use of the
toolkit for performing extrapolations is described. Chapter 11 describes expert opinion
methods, including nominal groups, committees and seminars, surveys, and Delphi.
Chapter 12 presents cross impact and system dynamics. The toolkit includes both KSIM
and a limited cross impact capability. Chapter 13 presents scenarios. Chapter 14 presents
economic forecasting.
Part III, consisting of Chapters 15 through 19, presents material on managing technol-
ogy. This includes impact assessment, benefit/cost and risk analysis, and the analytic
hierarchy process (AHP). The toolkit includes a program for conducting AHP analyses.
Each chapter includes examples illustrating the topics presented in the text and prob-
lems for the student to work.
There are three appendices. Appendix A describes the use of the computer toolkit.
Appendix B includes several statistical tables. Appendix C presents a short discussion
of sensitivity analysis in modeling.
AS this summary suggests, the book has considerable breadth of coverage. As might
be expected, this is accompanied by lesser depth. A great many different techniques and
topics are introduced, but not presented in very much detail. In some cases the presentation
does little more than illustrate the method. In short, despite the authors’ stated intent
of producing a “methods” book, it is more accurately described as a “survey” book. In
that role, however, it performs well. In view of this, for whom is the book suited?
0 1993 Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 0040-1625/93/$6.00
384 BOOK REVIEW
The book could readily be used for a senior- or graduate-level introductory course
in engineering management or technology management. However, the instructor would
need to supplement the text with examples and detailed presentations. Indeed, it might
be difficult to cover the entire book in one semester, if it is to be supplemented adequately,
Practicing engineers and managers would find the book to be a useful survey, but
would frequently have to turn to other sources (often listed in the bibliography) for
detailed information. It covers just about every topic engineering managers might need
to know regarding technology forecasting and planning. Indeed, it will probably inform
such managers of many things they didn’t even know existed. Once they learn of their
existence and value, however, they will have to seek elsewhere for detailed information.
Students, instructors, and practicing engineers should find the book to be a useful
survey of the field of technology forecasting and management.
The book is clearly written and easy to read. Physically it is nicely printed and contains
very few misprints. The computer program is easy to use. Although an extensive on-line
help system is available, it is hardly ever required. Users who know what they want to
accomplish with the program can simply use the drop-down menus.
JOSEPH P. MARTIN0
Associate Editor
Received 9 March 1992
