Actionable Agile Metric s
for Predictability
Daniel S. Vacanti
ActionableAgileTM
daniel@actionableagile.com
@danvacanti
“When will it be done?”
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
“When will it be done?”
Date (number of days)
Elapsed Time
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“When will it be done?”
Date (number of days)
Story Points / Velocity
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Stop me if you’ve heard this
one before…
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
“Relative Complexity is the best
predictor of how long it takes
an item to complete”
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
I’m going to suggest
something radical…
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As an example:
How long does it take you to get to
work in the morning?
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“It depends…”
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Here’s
a spot!!
3 4 4 2
Ready Analysis Development Testing Done
Active Done Active Done
Here’s
a spot!!
Try an experiment for
me…
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Elapsed Time
Calendar Days
Try the same thing for
your process
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Start Timer Stop Timer
Backlog Analysis Develop Test Deployed
This chart is called a
(Cycle Time) Scatterplot
If you track nothing else*,
track the date that an item starts and
the date that an item completes
(for all work items)
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
That will give you a
measure of the flow
metric of
Cycle Time
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Cycle Time
is the amount of
elapsed time
it takes for a given work
item to complete
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
“When will it be done?”
(for a single item)
is best answered by
Cycle Time
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
“Huh?”
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
How does generating a
chart like this help us
answer
“When will it be done”?
How do we make
sense of this
randomness?
Your process is random.
Therefore, you can’t think
deterministically.
You need to think
probabilistically.
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
What does it mean to
think probabilistically?
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Let’s try another experiment…
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Thinking probabilistically means
acknowledging that there is
more than one
possible
future outcome
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
How many people can we “expect” to
be standing after 3 flips?
12.5%
Does that mean 12.5% was the only
possible outcome?
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Start Timer Stop Timer
Backlog Analysis Develop Test Deployed
2
Backlog Design Develop Test Deployed
Will Item #3
2
end up as…
Or Exactly
Exactly
this dot?
Exactly this dot?
this dot?
Backlog Design Develop Test Deployed
There is more than one possible outcome
for Item #3 while it is sitting in the backlog
What are the possible
outcomes?
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
How do we make
sense of this
“randomness”?
38
50th Percentile = 6 days or less
39
85th Percentile = 15 days or less
40
95th Percentile = 22 days or less
41
Scatterplot Percentiles (making a forecast)
95th Percentile = 22 days or less
85th Percentile = 15 days or less
50th Percentile = 6 days or less
42
The answer to “When will it
be done?” is a percentile and
its associated range.
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
85th Percentile = 33 days or less
85th Percentile = 13 days or less
All of these dots are “done”.
The most important chart you’ve
never heard of
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
To sum up…
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Customers care about
elapsed time
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
If you track nothing else, track
the date that an item starts
and the date that an item
completes
(for all work items)
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Calculate Cycle Time
from start and end
date data
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Use a
Cycle Time Scatterplot
to get a sense of
possible outcomes
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Use percentile lines on a
Scatterplot to help answer
“When Will It Be Done?”
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
Use a WIP Aging chart to
be proactive in managing
Cycle Time for greater
predictability
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
For next time…
What does a century 19 th
Yorkshire cotton industrialist
have to do with the
Manhattan Project?
@danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com
“Actionable Agile
Metrics for
Predictability”
https://leanpub.com/actionableagilemetrics
Coming Soon….
“When Will It Be
Done?”
https://leanpub.com/whenwillitbedone
QUESTIONS?
Daniel S. Vacanti
http://www.actionableagile.com
daniel@actionableagile.com
@danvacanti
Thank-you!
All charts created by:
