India’s Resource Nexus
Overview of the research landscape
Karthik Ganesan
Senior Research Associate
Council on Energy, Environment and Water
New Delhi, India
4th Asian Think Tank Summit
Seoul, Korea
June 10, 2016
© Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2013
CEEW: addressing global challenges through an integrated approach
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Status Quo
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Key themes
• Irrigation - energy nexus
• Electricity - water nexus
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Little irrigation potential remains
Ultimate Irrigation Potential vs. Potential Created vs. Potential Utilised
SOURCE: CEEW (2011) | 4
Investment in irrigation yielded few gains in net irrigated area
Trends of public expenditure in major and medium irrigation
and net irrigated area under different sources in India
60 42
50 36
(billion US$, in 2000 prices)
30
Net irrigated area
40
(million ha)
Expenditure
24
30
18
20
12
10
6
0 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Expenditure Tanks Canals Groundwater
SOURCE: CEEW (2011); Shah (2009) | 5
Groundwater stress and overdraft in many states
All figures in BCM (200
SOURCE: CEEW (2011) | 6
Key themes
• Irrigation - energy nexus
• Electricity - water nexus
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Irrigation water nexus
Research focus has not been in terms of technology, but in terms of
management of groundwater resources.
SOURCE: IWMI (2003) |
The issue of subsidy: distorting markets, wasting
energy and water!
SOURCE: IWMI (2003) |
Vicious cycle of energy-groundwater management
Power Utilities On farm
• Financial losses due to low • Water overuse to hedge
agricultural flat tariff against poor voltage and
• Poor voltage and frequency infrequent power supply
power supply
• Huge T&D losses due to
power theft & unauthorised
pump sets
SOURCE: CEEW (2011) | 10
Increase in shallow and deep tube-wells
Number of MI Structures (in million)
9.62
9.10
10 9.20
9 8.36
8
7
6
5
4
3
0.64 0.64
2 1.45
0.61 0.60
0.53
1
0
Dugewells Shallow Tubewells Deep Tubewells Surface Lift Surface Flow
3rd Minor Irrigation Census 4th Minor Irrigation Census
SOURCE: Sugam and Choudhuri
(In preparation) | 11
Future of irrigation water demand
•Significant increase in irrigation requirement, even after assuming irrigation water delivery
efficiency increase.
•Important implications for groundwater withdrawals and energy use for pumping water.
SOURCE: Chaturvedi et al. (2013) | 12
Key themes
• Irrigation - energy nexus
• Electricity - water nexus
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Significant growth in electricity consumption across sectors, however
still a long way to go!
SOURCE: Ghosh (2012); Central Statistics Office, GOI (2012); Central Electricity Authority | 14
Coal and gas account for two-thirds of installed electricity capacity,
deliver more than 82% of electricity
Electricity Installed Capacity, March 2013
1%
2%
9%
19%
8%
Renewable
2%
1%
58%
0%
Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro Wind Small Hydropower Biomass Solar
SOURCE: http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/daily/dgr/2013/march/14/dgr17.pdf | 15
Water demand for the energy sector will rise in India
Global water use Water for energy
100% Biofuels
Fossil fuels
Other
80%
Nuclear
60%
40% Power
Coal
20%
Energy
2010 2010
In India, the power sector will account for 98% of additional
withdrawals and 95% of additional consumption of water between
2010 and 2035
SOURCE: IEA (2012) | 16
Location of thermal and hydropower plants
•Water required for thermal power plants (one example): 2500 m3/hr for 330 MW plant
(FICCI-HSBC, 2013)
|
Power plants and water availability stress
SOURCE: CEEW and NRDC (2012) | 18
India’s electricity generation mix: Future evolution has huge
water implications
Electricity mix- BAU Electricity mix- Climate Policy sc
80 Solar 80 Solar
Wind Wind
70 70
Hydro Hydro
Electricity production in EJ
Electricity production in EJ
60 60
Biomass w/CCS Biomass w/CCS
50 Biomass 50 Biomass
40 Nuclear 40 Nuclear
30 Oil 30 Oil
Gas w/CCS Gas w/CCS
20 20
Gas Gas
10 10
Coal w/CCS Coal w/CCS
0 Coal 0 Coal
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
•Electricity consumption expected to increase by over 8 times between 2005 and 2050 and
further by two times till century end.
•Further increase in electricity consumption by 40% in 2095 under climate policy.
•Shift toward more water intensive technologies.
SOURCE: Shukla and Chaturvedi (2012) |
Summary of these relations
Impacts Energy Food Water Climate
Factors
Energy Oil 42% of >16mn electrified Highest growth
agricultural energy groundwater in energy
use: price shocks pumpsets demand
affect food prices
Energy also Natural gas
needed for reduces impact
pumping urban but affected by
water pricing,
infrastructure &
international
agreements
Renewables have
role in mitigation
Food Potential feedstock Cropping
for biofuels; patterns affect
biofuel subsidies in water use
U.S. affects global efficiency
corn prices
Losses in food
storage increase
pressure for more
water-intensive
production
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Summary
Impacts Energy Food Water Climate
Factors
Water 88% water in >82% water use in Ecological flows
industry used for agriculture necessary
thermal power
plants Groundwater
>60% of irrigation
Water demand for
CSP projects in Traded
arid areas commodities
contain virtual
Hydropower water
depends on water
levels in reservoirs
Climate Constrains energy Extreme weather Affects
mix options events & precipitation
agricultural
productivity Affecting glacier
melt
Longer dry
seasons
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Integrating energy water climate nexus research
• Integrated Energy Water Plans at the local level.
• Macro level research for getting a bigger trends in energy
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Understanding tradeoffs and co-benefits
SOURCE: CEEW | 23
Conclusion
•We do have some basic understanding of the irrigation energy nexus
•However, our understanding of electricity water nexus issues in very
preliminary stages
•Bioenergy water demands will put additional pressure, need to develop
knowledge on that front
•The implications of climate mitigation policies will further complicate
these nexuses
•We haven’t even discussed climate impacts here! – Impacts on
hydropower production, efficiency of power plants, impact of extreme
events on energy infrastructure
•Putting into practice a research agenda focusing on the nexus is
crucial- both at the local level for planning and at the macro level for
strategic information.
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