NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

Manila, Philippines

Veracity Effect of COVID-19: The World

and the Philippine Nation

A Project Case Study

Presented to
The Faculty of College of Business and Accountancy
Accountancy Program
National University

_______________________________

In Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the course
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND SOCIETY

_______________________________

Presented by:

MAPALO, Jacklyn JoyceM.

MARZO, June Maylyn D.
MOSELINA, April Ann L.
PANGANIBAN, Kristine
PINEDA, Jarvy Mckenzie

Presented to:
MRS. MA. LUISA ANTONIA L. UNTIVERO

June, 2020

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Cover Page………………………………………………………………………1
I. Abstract………………………………………………………………………….3
II. Introduction……………………………………………………………………..3
III. Body……………………………………………………………………………...8
Key Issues/goals and problems…………………………………………………..8
Decision Criteria………………………………………………………………...11
Assumptions…………………………………………………………………….15
Data Analysis……………………………………………………....…………...19
Justification/Predicted Outcome or Recommendation…………………….…....19
IV. Conclusion…………………………………………………………….………..21
V. References………………………………………………………….…………..23

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Data of predicted employment loss in the travel and tourism industry due
to coronavirus………………………………………………………………………....9

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I. ABSTRACT

The outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID 19) has created a global
health crisis that has a deep impact on the way we perceive our world and our everyday
lives. The Pandemic was interfering many operations in the world which brought
challenges to all affected countries which includes the Philippines. According to the
report of the World Health Organization as of May 2020, the current outbreak of
COVID-19, has affected over 5.8 million people and killed more than 360,000 people in
more than 200 countries throughout the world. In the Philippines more than 15000+
tested positive while there are almost 1000 deaths. As of today, there are vaccines
spreading and recommended by some but WHO takes reasonable steps to verify the
accuracy of the information presented. Besides, WHO does not make any and hereby
disclaims all representations and warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness and
safety of the vaccines. COVID 19 has rapidly spread around the world, posing enormous
health, economic, environmental and social challenges to the entire human population.
The coronavirus outbreak is severely disrupting the global economy. Almost all the
nations are struggling to slow down the transmission of the disease by testing & treating
patients, quarantining suspected persons through contact tracing, restricting large
gatherings, maintaining complete or partial lock down. This study shows Veracity Effect
of COVID-19 on society and global environment, and the possible ways in which the
disease can be controlled has also been discussed therein.

II. INTRODUCTION
The coronavirus has greatly affected every aspect of our lives. Since the virus
spreads quickly all over the globe, safety consequently became the primary concern of
everyone. As a result, the Philippines as well as those countries affected by the virus went
into full coronavirus lockdown. Consequently, people as of now are suffering from
difficulties of working from home and to look after their family as they fulfil their

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professional responsibilities. Even amid uncertainty, those frontliners who are providing
help for their fellow countrymen are bravely doing their duties amidst this pandemic.
Presently, countries affected around the world are still working to overcome the
disadvantageous impact of COVID-19 in economy, education, and society.

The World Health Organization defined COVID-19 as an infectious disease

caused by the newly discovered coronavirus. The outbreak of this virus began in Wuhan,
China, in December 2019 but was still unknown to many until the news was disseminated
around the globe. The virus spreads primarily through droplets of saliva or discharge
from the nose when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Hence, WHO suggested that
it’s very important to practice respiratory etiquette. According to Aljazeera news, in the
beginning of 2020, the world watched as China placed entire regions in quarantine to
fight the spread of the novel coronavirus. At the time, few could imagine that many
countries would follow suit. But on March 11, 2020 COVID-19 had already spread to
more than 110 countries, and the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus
outbreak a pandemic. Since then, countries around the world have also introduced
sweeping measures to slow the spread of the virus. In the Philippines, last January 30, the
Department of Health informed the Filipinos that the first case of this virus has entered
through the 38-year-old female Chinese national whom tested positive. Moreover, it was
on March 7 where the first local transmission of COVID-19 was confirmed.

With the news written by Cohut (2020) on Medical News Today, there are 213
countries and territories that have confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the biggest numbers
are found in countries like United States, Italy, Spain, and France. These countries with
the most productive economy were put into extremely difficult situations. However, they
are not the only one affected, Philippines and other poor countries suffered a lot from this
virus causing fear and failures on economy and education. The current coronavirus
situation is profoundly impacting all types of businesses. With temporary cessation of
some businesses and activities slowing down for many, the consequences of the
pandemic are even worse for the global economy than the ones following the Great
Financial Crisis in 2007-2008. The first country to suffer from the impact of Covid-19 is

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China, the second largest economy worldwide. The drastic lockdown, which required a
number of significant manufacturing companies and retail businesses to close or reduce
their activities, has dreadfully slowed down the Chinese economy. The outbreak of
pandemic Covid-19 all over the world has disturbed the political, social, economic,
religious and financial structures of the whole world. World’s topmost economies such as
the US, China, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and many others are at the verge of
collapse. Besides, Stock Markets around the world have been pounded and oil prices
have fallen off a cliff. In just a week 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment
and a week later another 6.6 million people started searching for jobs. Also, many experts
on economic and financial matters have warned about the worsening condition of global
economic and financial structure. Such as Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of
International Monitory Fund (IMF), explained that “a recession at least as bad as during
the Global Financial Crisis or worse”. Moreover, Covid-19 is harming the global
economy because the world has been experiencing the most difficult economic situation
since World War-II. When it comes to the human cost of the Coronavirus pandemic it is
immeasurable therefore all countries need to work together with cooperation and
coordination to protect the human beings as well as limit the economic damages. For
instance, the lockdown has restricted various businesses such as travelling to contain the
virus consequently this business is coming to an abrupt halt globally. The spread of the
epidemic is picking up speed and causing more economic damages. It is stated by the
U.S. official from federal reserves that American unemployment would be 30% and its
economy would shrink by half. As for as the jobs of common people are concerned, there
is also a real threat of losing their jobs because with business shutting down that shows
that companies will be unable to pay to workers resultantly they have to lay off them.
While when it comes to the stock market, it is severely damaged by Covid-19 such as the
stock market of the United States is down about thirty percent. By looking over the
existing condition of several businesses, most of the investors are removing its money
from multiple businesses in this regard $83 billion has already removed from emerging
markets since the outbreak of Covid-19. So, the impact of Covid-19 is severe on the
economic structure of the world because people are not spending money resultantly

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businesses are not getting revenue therefore most of the businesses are shutting up shops.
Philippine economy may lose between P276.3 billion and P2.5 trillion, depending on how
the coronavirus pandemic develops in the next few months according to government
think-tanks. Metro Manila, which accounts for 37.5% of GDP, is a major concern during
the pandemic, while the entire Luzon region accounts for about 73% of the country’s
GDP. Sectors from retail, real estate, to manufacturing are experiencing serious
challenges due to the enhanced community quarantine. The Philippine Stock Exchange
Index has dropped by 32% year-to-date. Over 2 million employees were displaced during
the first five weeks of the Luzon-wide ECQ wherein about 70% of this were affected by
temporary business closures and 30% employees were subject to alternative work
arrangements such as reduced working days and hours; forced leave; and work-from-
home. Metro Manila accounted for the most number of displaced workers. The
Government’s infrastructure program is facing further delays due to the quarantines
(COVID-19) outbreak, as well as the repurposing of funds to contain the pandemic.
While slower construction industry growth is seen this year as most activity is
concentrated in areas affected by the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ). With
strict ECQ measures imposed on Luzon, a large proportion of projects would have
experienced stop work orders, leading to an unfavourable outlook for the Philippine
buildings sector for 2020. Post-ECQ, construction activity will still face challenges such
as supply chain especially if sourced from foreign markets and logistics and shortages
due to the business activities disruption.

Most governments around the world have temporarily closed educational

institutions in an attempt to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. These
nationwide closures are impacting almost 70% of the world’s student population. Several
other countries have implemented localized closures impacting millions of additional
learners according to UNESCO. O’neill (2020) stated that “COVID-19’s disruptive
impacts are rippling through the economy, society and, inevitably, politics. The vast sums
of largely borrowed cash that governments are spending on health care and to backstop
the economy will need to be repaid. The 2008 financial crisis, though far less severe than

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today’s, provides a useful analogue to estimate COVID-19’s impact on universities and

colleges into the future. In Canada and globally, the 2008 crisis contributed to a flattening
or decline in public spending on colleges and universities. The data show a repeating
pattern: the education sector as a whole, and postsecondary education in particular, is a
ready target of government austerity measures every time there is an economic downturn.
Thus, with the notable exception of Quebec, governments and institutions resorted to
tuition fee hikes (although with caps) to compensate for cuts in public dollars, leading to
significant increases in student debt loads. Canadian colleges and universities, spurred on
by the federal and provincial governments, also entered the global market for
international students. In 2018, over 500,000 international students were contributing
over $6 billion in tuition fee revenues. Another measure of adaptation to cutbacks was to
increase average class sizes, seeking an economy of scale by moving students into larger
and larger auditoriums for undergraduate courses. As any instructor in higher education
can attest, huge class sizes have had real consequences for the quality of undergraduate
education despite our best efforts. Colleges and universities have compensated for
funding restrictions by increasing the percentage of their contract teaching staff — a
more easily compressible workforce than full-time tenured staff. But these teachers are
often less accessible to students and less invested in the life of campus outside of class. In
those large undergraduate classrooms, there is a better than average chance that the
instructor at the lectern is a member of contract staff”.

The education system has been heavily affected by the public health crisis brought
about by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Vasquez (2020) stated
that “people still need to work. Students need to learn and teachers need to teach”.
Similarly, Atty. Alberto Muyot, Chief Executive Officer of Save the Children Philippines
said Schools should limit the impact of disruption to education through open, distance
and online learning with which some higher education schools like UST, NU, La Salle to
name a few have conducted. However, various groups are calling for an early termination
of the current semester, with students to be given passing marks automatically but the
Commission on Higher Education said the decision should be made at the university

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level. With classes suspended since March 12, the learning process – especially in
colleges and universities that adjusted to the new academic calendar – has been disrupted.
The suspension of classes was part of the measures to prevent COVID-19 contagion. It
was done even before the government imposed community quarantine in Metro Manila
on March 15 and expanded it to cover the whole of Luzon on March 17. Instead of being
lifted on April 13, the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) has been extended until
April 30. Recently, the Ateneo de Manila University received widespread praise after it
decided to end its current semester early and give all students passing marks. Ateneo vice
president for the Loyola Schools Maria Luz Vilches, in a memorandum dated April 7,
said they decided to end the semester on May 8 “in the interest of everyone’s well-being
in our community.” Giving pass marks to all students, she said, is the most humane way
of dealing with student grades under the circumstances, “where it is difficult to and unfair
to make a judgment of failure, considering that students have not been given the benefit
of a full semester to improve their performance.” Ateneo’s decision on mass promotion
prompted students in other higher education institutions to call for similar policies. At the
University of the Philippines (UP), student councils have also supported calls for mass
promotion and leniency for graduating students in fulfilling their requirements for
graduation, such as thesis, practicums and final product. The Far Eastern University
(FEU) central student organization has also recommended an early termination of the
semester and giving pass marks to all students.

III. BODY
Key Issues/goals and problems

The major problems and challenges that the world trying to survive while this
Pandemic give a lots of difficulties and dangerous in our lives. Specifically, in the
Philippines as one of the poorest country experienced lack of support, such as food and
money. Here are the said major problems based on the survey released by the
International Trade Union Congress, which surveyed its members in 86 countries around
the world to monitor government and employer responses to the pandemic;

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 Sharan Burrow, General Secretary of the ITUC, shares her thoughts on the exceptional
challenges facing the world's workers.

 A lack of access to healthcare and paid sick leave are among the concerns.

 Job losses are set to exceed predictions of 25 million worldwide.

Most of the workers are now working from their home in order to avoid exposing
and going outside to go with their offices or businesses. The technology we have now
really does play up the opportunities, but it also highlights the costs and potential risks of
people being atomized from their place of work.

The issues wherein it’s another concerns of the workers are how they can have
access or to have a rapid test before continuing work. Assurance of payment when there
is sick leave.

One of the priorities who need help is our workers on the frontlines such as health
workers, transport workers, workers in supermarkets and related services, and care
facilities. But beyond that, where the factories and retail outlets and services are shutting
down, people often have far too little sick pay, if any at all. Wage and job guarantees are
lacking. The International Labor Organization (ILO) says we could lose up to 25 million
jobs worldwide – and depending on the timeframe, it could be worse than that.

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Figure 1: Data of predicted employment loss in the travel and tourism industry due
to coronavirus

The problems affect the lives of the people, like the operations of the businesses,
going to their works or offices, continuing to study in schools and universities.
Businesses is one of the most important key to have an income or profit, so the tendency
if businesses are currently shutdown and are not allowed to operate, there employees and
staff will eventually affected because they will not also allowed to work and doesn’t have
to expect salary from their bosses or leaders. And if that so, the unemployed rate will
increase because a lot of people want to stay home and the main reason is they don’t have
job after all.

The possible effects of these problems will eventually result to poverty. In the
Philippines, majority of the people can’t afford to buy their foods and needs. In the areas
of informal settlers are one of the most affected of the lockdown. It is not enough to just
expect help from the Local Government Units (LGU). Parents or guardians will think
how they will have money to save for their children’s education. Schools are also
affected most especially the students wherein they can’t no longer go to schools and
universities to continue studying. It has a lot of difficulties and problems that this Covid-
19 brought to our normal lives before.

The reasons of why these problems occurred, because the veracity effect of
Covid-19 is not just an easy problem that it can wipe out simply. Covid-19 was come
from the city of China which started at Wuhan. According to reports and news, the virus
was spread that lead to high cases and the non-stop operations and transactions between
the countries. In the first month of 2020, covid-19 is just an alarming ill for everyone but
because of the lack of control in the Ninoy Aquino International Airport, the problems
are also starting.

On 30 January 2020, the Philippine Department of Health reported the first case
of COVID-19 in the country with a 38-year-old female Chinese national. On 7 March, the
first local transmission of COVID-19 was confirmed. WHO is working closely with the

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Department of Health in responding to the COVID-19 outbreak. The root of all these
problems is because of lack of prevention and control.

Facing this Pandemic is a big challenge on how we can adapt the new normal
such as the social distancing, limited movement, and less interaction with relatives and
friends. The environment will also change, the travel opportunities to go in the other
country will be temporarily not allowed, and of how can people and economy survive.

Decision Criteria

This section deals with different ways in which the problem can be resolved. To
prepare for the eventuality of additional cases being reported in the country, including
local and community transmission, the following actions have been taken:

Country readiness and response operations

Country-level coordination DOH activated the Incident Management Team as

well as its Emergency Operating Centre. Key decisions are taken by the Inter Agency
Task Force (IATF) and the Inter Agency Technical Working Group (IATWG) for the
Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases, consisting of key government agencies
like the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), Department of Tourism (DOT),
Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), etc. The IATF is meeting on
an as-needed basis to take decisions informed by daily risk assessments on travel
restrictions and support to Filipinos overseas impacted by travel restrictions. The IATWG
also meets on a regular basis to coordinate among key public and private entities in the
implementation and updating of existing guidelines. All guidelines are available online at
https://www.doh.gov.ph/2019-nCov/interim-guidelines On 27-28 February 2020, DOH
led a national contingency planning exercise for COVID-19 jointly with NDRRMC,
where 60 key staff from relevant government agencies, UN, Red Cross, and non-
governmental organizations discussed their roles and responsibilities, available resources
and gaps for a potential COVID-19 outbreak in the country. The plan is based on the
2012 Philippine Preparedness and Response Plan for Pandemic and Avian Influenza

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which is currently being updated and aligns with the draft National Action Plan for
Health Security. The draft plan will be complemented with development partners’
contributions in a separate planning workshop on 10 March, after which it will be tested
in a table top exercise on 18 March next.

Risk communication and community engagement

DOH and WHO regularly update and disseminate messages on COVID-19 to

build and maintain public trust and confidence by providing correct and timely
information. All partners are encouraged to proactively support in the further
dissemination of accurate information as broad and widely as possible, ensuring to
correct all circulating ‘fake news’. The Philippine Red Cross (PRC) conducted training
for its community volunteers on prevention, preparedness and response, including
through its involvement in ongoing polio vaccination activities. PRC also set up Welfare
Desks at all Manila International Airport Terminals targeting passengers boarding flights
to Hong Kong, where facemasks are distributed to overseas Filipino workers. All
communication materials are available at: https://www.doh.gov.ph/2019-
nCov/infographics and https://www.doh.gov.ph/COVID-19/Gabay-sa-Publiko.

Surveillance

DOH has established surveillance systems in place to actively look for cases of
COVID-19. Epidemiological Surveillance Units (ESU) at municipal, city, provincial and
regional level continuously conduct Event-based (or rumour-based) investigations,
searching for clusters of diseases of unknown origin and/or pneumonia-like illness.
Weekly surveillance in influenza-like illness (ILI) as well as severe acute respiratory
illness (SARI) conducted throughout the country, allows DOH to look for unexpected
trends in diseases with similar symptoms as COVID-19 (fever, cough, breathing
difficulty). All SARI cases are furthermore laboratory tested for COVID-19 at RITM.
DOH’ Epidemiology Bureau (EB) and its ESUs are working in close collaboration with
LGUs to trace possible contacts of confirmed cases, using passenger manifests of public
transport means including flights, ferries and buses, often led by the DOH’ Bureau of

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Quarantine (BOQ). WHO has been supporting EB with the review of guidelines, contact
tracing, and collection of key information from overseas Filipinos in other countries
through the official International Health Regulation (IHR) channels. WHO is also
facilitating the use of Go. Data, an outbreak investigation tool for field data collection
during public health emergencies.

Points of entry

BOQ has put temperature screening in place at all airports and ports in the
Philippines and is coordinating the tracing of passengers on transport means known to
have been used by confirmed cases. BOQ is trained and equipped to detect and handle ill
passengers in accordance with DOH and WHO guidelines.

Rapid response teams

DOH’ Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases (EREID) unit has rapid
response teams (RRT) in place at all 17 regional DOH’ Centres for Health Development
(CHD). EREID RRTs have been trained in case investigation, EREID hospital
assessments, joint risk assessment tools for zoonotic diseases (in close collaboration with
Department of Agriculture Regional Field Offices), and proper use of Personal Protection
Equipment (PPE). RRT have been mobilised to support with contact tracing and
community engagement in close collaboration with LGUs.

National laboratory system

Thanks to support from the Japanese government and WHO with rapid
mobilisation of critical laboratory supplies, RITM currently has the testing capacity to
test for 300 samples per day for COVID-19. Tests conducted at RITM were verified for
quality assurance at the reference public health laboratory for infectious diseases in
Victoria, Australia. To expand testing capacity for COVID-19 in the country, RITM
trained laboratory technicians of the five identified sub national laboratories (Baguio
General Hospital and Medical Centre, San Lazaro Hospital in Manila, Lung Centre of the
Philippines in Quezon City, Southern Philippines Medical Centre in Davao and Vicente

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Sotto Memorial Medical Centre in Cebu) and the National Institute of Health Central
Laboratory of the University of the Philippines (UP-NIH) on 4-6 March 2020. Further
on-the-job training will be conducted once all laboratories have received the necessary
testing reagents and consumables. WHO is providing technical support for rapid
activation of sub national laboratories for COVID-19 testing. RITM is currently in the
process of signing memoranda of agreement (MOA) with 4 other public and private
laboratories to further expand testing for COVID-19.

Infection prevention and control

Twenty hospitals have been pre-identified and prepared for EREID cases
throughout the Philippines: one per region and 3 in Metro Manila. All EREID hospitals
conduct annual self-assessments identifying their state of readiness in terms of training,
equipment and supplies. Staff receive frequent training on biosafety and security as well
as infection prevention and control (IPC). COVID-19-specific DOH guidelines for IPC
have been shared with all public and private hospitals. WHO is supporting DOH with the
procurement and mobilisation of PPE for all EREID hospitals, including RITM. WHO
also mobilized an IPC expert through the Global Outbreak and Response Network
(GOARN), who is providing technical advice to DOH on IPC-related matters, including
the organization of a Training of Trainers for the 20 hospitals on 25-27 March next,
aimed at reaching all front-line health workers of both public and private health care
facilities with refresher training on IPC. PRC developed Standard Operating Procedures
(SOP) for its 129 ambulances, and PPE kits have been made available for priority
ambulance crews. PRC prepositioned over 7,500 PPE sets in its regional warehouses.
PRC has medical tents available to be mobilised as isolation units in case of a surge of
patients for major hospitals in Metro Manila.

Logistics, procurement, and supply management

WHO has been supporting DOH with the procurement and mobilisation of PPE
and essential laboratory supplies.

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Resource mobilization

- USAID committed 700,000 USD for support to DOH’s outbreak response.

- UNICEF Philippines mobilized 50,000 USD from its emergency fund

- WHO mobilized over 250,000 USD for laboratory supplies and PPEs, the
mobilization of experts, training of trainers and planning workshops.

Assumptions

This assumption is more likely based on true or at least plausible. Warwick

McKibbin, non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, director of the Centre
for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis in the ANU Crawford School of Public Policy, and
director of policy engagement in the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Aging
Research (CEPAR), maintains a large economic model of the world economy, known as
G-Cubed, that he is using to estimate the economic effects of the COVID-19 virus under
seven scenarios. His analysis, “Global Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19:
Seven Scenarios,” Here is a Q&A with him about his research.

Q: How does COVID-19 differ from past episodes, such as SARS in 2003 and
the Avian flu in 1997? How do the economic risks differ?

SARS was also a coronavirus but had a much higher case mortality rate (10%)
compared with COVID-19 (between 2%-4%) and a much lower-case mortality rate than
the Avian flu (60%); on the other hand, COVID-19 may be more contagious than SARS
and more similar in contagion to Avian flu.  There is still a great deal of uncertainty about
COVID-19 which is what makes it very concerning.

Another similarity is that these outbreaks all began in China. China, of course, is a
much bigger part of and much more integrated in the world economy than it was 15 years
ago, so economic disruption there has much larger spill over effect than it used to.

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Q: You have seven scenarios for the COVID-19 virus. In the first three, the
virus is contained to China; in the most extreme, a mild pandemic recurs each year
for the foreseeable future. Let’s focus on your fourth scenario. Describe that.

In scenario four, we assume that COVID-19 eventually affects all countries, but
this pandemic is a one-time event and its severity is low. For China, we assume a 10%
attack rate (10% of all people fall ill) and a 2% case fatality rate (2% of those who are ill
subsequently die).  We then use an Index of Vulnerability for each country, basically
calibrating how much it is like or different from China, to estimate the effects of the virus
in other countries. These assumptions are fed into the model to determine the severity of
the outbreak in each country.

Q: In this scenario, you assume that 10% of the Chinese population get the
virus, and 2% of those Chinese die. What are the comparable numbers for the U.S.?

The total mortality rate from the virus is the product of the attack rate and the
case-fatality rate. In the fourth scenario, 0.2% of the population in China dies as a result
of the virus; the assumed mortality rate for the US is .07%.

Q: What are the global economic costs of that scenario? What are the costs to
the U.S. economy?

The loss of real GDP, relative to what would have been the model prediction in
2020 without the virus, is approximately $US2.3 trillion for the world, which is 2% lower
than the baseline. Of that, the US economy loses $US420 billion in 2020, or about 2%
less than the pre-virus baseline. Of course, if the virus spreads more widely or turns out to
be more severe, the costs would be larger.

Q: The direct costs of a pandemic are, of course, deaths and sickness that
prevent people from working. Your model adds indirect effects. What are they, and
how do you estimate their effects on the economy?

In the modelling exercise, we reduce the labor supply by the number of people
who die, the hours lost due to sickness, and the hours lost due to people caring for family

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members who are sick. We also make assumptions about the rising cost of doing business
in each sector, including disruption of production networks in each country; shifts in
consumption as a result of changes in household preferences; and the expected rise in
equity risk premia on companies in each sector in each country (based on exposure to the
disease).

Q: When you make your projections, what do you assume that fiscal and
monetary policymakers will do in reaction to the virus? How potent do you think
fiscal and monetary policy are in ameliorating the economic damage of COVID-19?

We model the policy response of central banks in each economy. Some central
banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, adjust nominal interest rates in order to target an
inflation outcome, while attempting to minimize the loss of output across the economy.
For other countries, like China, central banks also target the exchange rates. Fiscal
authorities are assumed to change government spending by an amount related to the
health and other intervention costs associated with the virus outbreak, and budget deficits
increase automatically in response to the economic downturn.

Both monetary and fiscal policies help, but because a significant part of the shock
is a disruption to supply, demand management policies, such as fiscal and monetary
policies, go only part of the way to stabilizing the economy. In countries that follow a
monetary policy rule which does not only focus on output, the response of monetary
policy can make the outcome worse. This would be the case for China, for example; by
continuing to try to prevent an exchange rate depreciation relative to the US dollar, the
Chinese central bank would need to tighten monetary policy or change the exchange rate
target.

We construct a series of indexes that attempt to quantify how one would adjust
the Chinese numbers (or US numbers where that is relevant to calculating changes in
financial variables such as risk). For example, the Index of Vulnerability is constructed
by aggregating an Index of Geography and an Index of Health Policy. The Index of
Geography is the average of two indexes. The first is the urban population density of

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countries divided by the share of urban in total population. This is expressed relative to
China. The second sub index is an index of openness to tourism relative to China. The
Index of Health Policy also consists of two components: the Global Health Security
Index and Health Expenditure per Capita relative to China. The Global Health Security
Index assigns scores to countries according to six criteria, which includes the ability to
prevent, detect, and respond to epidemics.

Q: In part, your projections are based on what we learned from the SARS
episode in 2003 and on what we’ve seen in China so far. You then build projections
based on how countries resemble or differ from China. How do you do that? What’s
the rationale for this approach?

Ideally, from a modelling perspective, we would have enough pandemics and

long enough data samples to estimate, using statistical techniques, how important each
index has been in explaining past disease outbreaks. Fortunately, we haven’t had enough
pandemics, so we have to use what is really an informed guess on what we think is
important. This is all that we can do given the reality of the data that is available. The
alternative of not attempting any quantification at all is less information for
policymakers.

Q: What lessons do you want policymakers to draw from your scenarios?

The cost of a pandemic can be very large. The response should be large enough to
reduce the effects of the pandemic once it emerges. Low-cost actions such as promoting
good hygiene practices are a good place to start, but other actions such as quarantine and
other interventions as advocated by epidemiologists, although disruptive, are probably
cost effective.

It is far better to invest substantial amounts to reduce the likelihood of a pandemic

emerging. This requires investment not only in developed countries’ public health
systems, but, more importantly, in the public health systems of poor countries. Even with
a low and uncertain probability of a serious pandemic with very large costs, the scenarios

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in the paper imply much larger expenditure than is currently planned by national
governments.

It may well be that, despite the scientifically based warnings of epidemiologists, a

future pandemic does not emerge. Even in that case, the money invested in improving
public health systems would not have been wasted; it would improve the quality of life
for all citizens.

These are the possible effects of Covid-19 on the world economy.

Data analysis

In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a

pandemic, caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study was an immediate assess
available data to learn what are the veracity effect of Covid-19 in the world and in the
Philippine nation.

Survey responses were de-identified and anonymized for all analyses. Duplicate entries
were eliminated before analysis; only the final entry was kept for further analyses.
Incomplete surveys were not included in the final analysis. We did not use the time spent
to complete the survey as a criterion to exclude answers (questionnaires submitted with
an atypical timestamp). We did not rely on statistical methods for assessing
representativeness of the final sample using descriptive analysis.

Data were collected from a journal, news and from the community. The data is based on
how they viewed the effect of this pandemic in different phases:

 Economic
 Academic
 Employment
 Country Readiness and response operation
 Supply Management and
 Infection prevention and control

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Justification/Predicted Outcome or Recommendation

The data given shows that this pandemic has a veracity effect globally especially
in our country is presents here that

Economic acquired major lose at least 2.4 percent of the value their gross
domestic product (GDP) over 2020, leading economists to already reduce their 2020
forecasts of global economic growth down from around 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent. To put
this number in perspective, global GDP was estimated at around 86.6 trillion U.S. dollars
in 2019 – meaning that just a 0.4 percent drop in economic growth amounts to almost 3.5
trillion U.S. dollars in lost economic output.

Academic impact will drastically return the students fall this year with less than
50 percent of typical learning gains, and in some grades, nearly a full year behind what
we would expect in this subject under normal conditions. For reading, the outlook is a bit
more optimistic. However, forecasts suggest some students will return in fall with about
70 percent of the learning gains relative to a typical year.

Employment will be decreased into half base od the latest data of International
Labour Organization it says that the continued sharp decline in working hours globally
due to the COVID-19 outbreak means

1.6 billion workers in the informal economy – that is nearly half of the global workforce
– stand in immediate danger of having their livelihoods destroyed. The drop in working
hours in the current (second) quarter of 2020 is expected to be significantly worse than
previously estimated.

DCompared to pre-crisis levels (Q4 2019), a 10.5 per cent deterioration is now expected,
equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week). The
previous estimate was for a 6.7 per cent drop, equivalent to 195 million full-time
workers. This is due to the prolongation and extension of lockdown measures.

Country Readiness and Response operation based on the level of strategy, the
government around the world is engaging in mobilization of community to limit

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exposure, using this controlling and planning strategy it helps to reduce the spread of
infection. So that, It is therefore essential that international, national, and local authorities
engage through participatory two-way communication efforts proactively, regularly,
transparently and unambiguously with all affected and at-risk populations.

Supply Management said to be one of the important strategy in this crisis, As

said by a professor that as the world grapples with the human and economic crisis
unravelling before us, supply chains are finding themselves squarely within the public
eye and experiencing unique challenges of their own, experts were focusing on ‘supply
shocks’. These were disruptions to the availability of goods sourced both finished goods
for sale and products used in factories in developed markets. Companies scrambled to
sort out what production was feasible, and what demand could be met. Therefore, Supply
chains are showcasing singular resourcefulness and adaptability, though the challenges
are far from over. But the outcome may be fundamental changes and a whole host of
managers and regulators who find it second-nature to rethink global models and supply
dependencies.

Infection prevention and control finds that to support Member States, the team
should collaborates with others to produce and adapt key strategies, guidelines, tools and
other resources, with the vision of protecting the lives of patients and health workers
across the world through excellence in IPC because the effective infection prevention
and control wil reduce health care-associated infections by at least 30%.

IV. CONCLUSION

COVID-19 is a disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus. It is a mild to

severe respiratory illness which can be transmitted briefly by contact with infectious
material. Crowded conditions, lack of access of medical supplies such as PPE’s, mask
and testing kits and lack of discipline of people in one country are the factors why this
virus will spread further. Due to this pandemic the alarming rate of infected people are
worsen the situation of the economy of their country especially the Philippines.
Philippines is a country that still developing because of this crisis people are not allowed

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to go outside to avoid contact with other people. Some business are suddenly shutdown,
Some OFW’s have also no work, the percent of tourism of it was dropped and students
aren’t sure if this school year will continue. Medical experts and professionals are also
the one who are suffering and sacrificing their lives to handle this disease. It may result
that the medical professionals also can be infected of this disease and it will be harder to
handle this situation. If the cases in the Philippines can’t control to rise and they are lack
of hospitals to accommodate infected persons it may worsen the situation. Also their
economy, their countrymen still not allowed to go outside to perform their duties in work
and because of that it will lead to poverty. However, there’s no vaccine for the virus but
the countries also the Philippines still conducting to find a right cure and treatment for the
virus. Despite of the situation every people should follow the rules from their government
like social distancing, wearing a facemask and not to go outside if there’s no important
agenda to help their country and also the workers that are risking their lives to lessen the
infected people.

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V. References:

https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_1

https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2020/containing-the-long-term-

impact-of-covid-19-on-higher-education/

https://www.onenews.ph/automatic-passing-mark-online-classes-and-graduation-

rites-schools-face-covid-19-challenges-2

https://www.savethechildren.org.ph/our-work/our-stories/story/covid-19/

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/04/22/impact-of-covid-19-on-global-economy-

structure/

https://www.flandersinvestmentandtrade.com/export/nieuws/coronavirus-

situation-philippines

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