The 20% Back/Lay System

Written by John Duncan and brought to you by:

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 The 20% Back/Lay System

T hank you for buying the 20% system, this short book is designed to
show you a fast and yet effective way to make simple profits from horse
racing regardless of your personal expertise and knowledge of horse
race gambling. It is a relatively low-risk gambling method that just about
anyone with an internet connection can use once they have a betting
exchange account. If you do not have a betting exchange account, then look
at paragraph 5 below.

What risk there is with this system will come from being over-eager and trying
to make too much money from one trade. Right now, that might not mean
much to you but, don’t worry, it’ll be as clear as the nose on your face soon.

I make no apologies here for flying straight into the system itself as I find
pages of pointless preamble annoying when I’ve paid good money for a
gambling system, if you are the same, I hope you find my “jump right in and
tell you all about it” approach refreshing. After all, you wouldn’t buy a novel
and expect to read 20 pages on how you should read the novel or on why the
writer wrote what he did.

Time and time again though, you will see endless, boring padding, filling
pages for the sake of filling pages. Padding that deals with related subjects
such as how to set up a betting exchange account and how to set up a bookie
account have their place but do they belong here?

If you need input on such things then click the following link now (or copy it
into your browser) and download my free betting exchange guide from:
www.profitmagnets.com you are most welcome to avail yourself of this guide
at absolutely no cost and it will give you a solid grounding on what you need
to get started. If you are reading this on screen and you do need a betting
exchange account, Click here.

Otherwise hold on tight because here we go, straight into the system.

The basic principle behind this is that every horse race has horses running in
it that will drop in price during the running of the race. This is now something
that we can all rely upon and bet upon thanks to the betting exchanges having
what we call “in-running” markets. Thus, a market for a race opens in the
morning (well actually, often the day before or even sooner for the really big
races) and in the run up to the race the price of a horse to back or to lay will
change and move up and down based on market interest. Now, in addition,
this process continues in a newly reformed market once the race has gone off
and the horses are out there running the race. That’s the bit that most
concerns us here.

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 he system is called the “20% Back/Lay System” because it reflects what

T my personal profit target was when I started to develop this. The target
is based upon acquiring a 20% profit from backing (before the off) and
then laying (in running) the same horse. There should be a profit achieved (if
it has been done correctly) either because it wins or because it places but
(and this is important) there should be no loss if it doesn’t win or place and,
depending on how you have structured your bets, perhaps a profit if it fails to
win or place.

Two important and quick points here:

1) The 20% figure is totally arbitrary. You could make your figure 10%,
5% or 30% in fact. Indeed, I would suggest that until you are 100%
competent and you can do this without really thinking, you keep the
figure very low, perhaps 5% or 10% would be ideal in the early days.
This following a period of simply paper trading (watching without
gambling and making notes).

2) If you are unfamiliar with the concept of laying a horse, again, I would
draw your attention to the free guide discussed earlier. This will
adequately cover laying horses. For a brief explanation though, to “lay”
is to bet that it will not win, or bet that it will not place and so on. In a
nutshell, you bet against the outcome.

Once you know that a profit can be achieved by backing a horse at one set of
odds and then laying the same horse at another (and lower) set of odds, then
all you need to know is how to identify the horses that have a very good
chance of dropping in price. It does you no good to pick any horse at random,
pin sticking in paper so to speak, because it is quite possible that the price will
immediately drift out thus causing an automatic loss.

Basic and obvious you might say but identifying horses that will drop in price
is easier said than done. Obviously, were it an easy thing to do, everyone
would be doing it and gambling would cease to be gambling – well, as far as
horse racing is concerned anyway.

Why, you might well ask, would anyone want to back a horse that has a good
chance of winning (which is why the price would be dropping) and then lay out
so as to reduce the profit? That’ a very good question and the answer is very
simple, many horses drop in price as they challenge in a race but still fail to
win the race. Interestingly, a horse doesn’t even need to challenge to see its
price drop/shorten in running. Just appearing to be well and comfortable in the
race can be enough to shorten the price if the horse if well fancied to begin
with.

This system describes the what, and the how based upon my experience of
trying to crack this particular nut.

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There are many theories as to how to identify horses that will drop in price
(price steaming as it is sometimes referred to). Many of these theories are
rubbish and many of them are, at best, only partially accurate.

I am not even going to be so bold as to say that the method I use and discuss
here for identifying potential steamers is any better than partially accurate but
it is consistent and that is the key. If you are correct a lot of the time, then, that
is all you need to make some money.

There is little that you will encounter in a horse racing system these days that
could be called new. The system I will divulge here for use as a method of
identifying horses likely to shorten in price during a race relies on trainer and
jockey statistics. I certainly do not claim that the idea of using trainer and
jockey statistics to identify betting opportunities is new. This is by no means a
new thing – but the way in which I use certain trainer/jockey statistics; the
approach I have developed here is, I believe, rather new and, more
specifically, far less risky than other systems born from the same or similar
statistical sources.

So how do we do it? You need access to www.sportinglife.co.uk and,

specifically, the stats page http://horses.sportinglife.com/Stats/. They should
be direct links that you simply click on to arrive at the relevant web pages
providing you are reading this on your computer screen. If they do not link for
any reason, then type them out exactly in your internet browser. Take a few
minutes to become familiar with these web pages before we move on.

In addition to these pages, all you need is a betting exchange account with
some funds in. A seriously nice advantage in using this type of system is that
it is all actionable with one betting exchange account so no bets being
declined or restricted by bookmakers. I recommend Betfair.com if you do not
have a betting exchange account already for 2 reasons. If you Click here to
open a Betfair.com account you will be able to join and obtain a free bet or
cash-back deal. Also, Betfair.com are, by far, the biggest, therefore arguably
the safest of the exchanges to use and everybody has heard of them.

This system works by backing a horse to win or place on a betting exchange

and then laying the same horse in running to achieve a profit if it wins (or
places) and, perhaps, a profit even if it doesn’t. The bet can be constructed
and left once you are comfortable thus allowing you to move on and quickly
research other races that are up-coming. The system allows you to use any
UK race (flat or jump).

Now there are two aspects of that previous paragraph that need a more
detailed explanation.

Firstly, I said back to win or place. If you back the horse to win then you are
restricted to how the horse performs in relation to the markets’ perception of
its’ likelihood to win the race only. The price, in running, will drop only if the
horse looks like it might actually win. If you back the horse to place then the
horse only needs to look like placing for the price to start to drop.

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Remember, however, what I said earlier about the horse not necessarily
having to be challenging for its’ price to drop. If it was reasonably well fancied
to start with, it may only need to look comfortable or ok for the price to move
downwards.

If you are keeping your “profit target” relatively low then it is easier to make
your money in the win market because the prices can move more dramatically
but it’s marginally safer to apply this method to the place market in exchange
for smaller monetary profits as the place prices are much smaller and
therefore the movement of prices tends to be less dramatic.

Secondly, I said “a profit if it wins (or places) and, perhaps, a profit even if it
doesn’t” and I should explain this in more detail. Let us assume that I am
looking for a 20% profit at the outset. If I back the horse for £100 at odds of 3
and then lay the horse for £100 at odds of 2.8, I will win £20 if it wins and I will
win nothing and lose nothing if it doesn’t win. If, on the other hand, I back it for
£100 at odds of 3 and then lay it for £120 at odds of 2.5, I will now win £20 if it
wins and £20 if it doesn’t win (those of you already familiar with betting
exchanges will know that there is a small commission deduction to come off of
these figures, but it is being ignored for simplicity here).

The difference is that to achieve the 20% profit whatever the outcome I need
to hang on for lower lay odds and make my lay stake higher than my back
stake. Always remember that the greater the drop required in price, in
running, the greater the risk of losing becomes. Hence, lower profit target
always equals lower risk and at first the lower the percentage you go for the
safer you will feel.

The maths on this need not be complicated. Decide upon an affordable stake
and back at the odds available before the race starts (we’ll call the odds 3)
then simply add 20% to your stake and add this on (thus £120 in the example
above). We then need to lay £120 at odds that will produce a £20 profit
whatever the outcome. The easiest way to arrive at the correct numbers for
this £20 profit on any result is to use the betting exchange to work it out for
you. Once you are familiar with their interface you will soon see that they all
have little calculus systems you can switch on to do the maths for you. Using
Betfair.com, for example, you can switch on their “what if” system before
committing to a bet and this will show you on screen what the result is before
you make your lay wager (or submit the bet).

To make this easier to follow for you, I will quickly show you how the
Betfair.com “what if” function works.

The first image shows that I have made a bet and because of the “what if”
system being switched on, you can see my financial position on each horse.

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In this next image we see how to switch on the “what if” function.

Now watch as I ask the question, “what if, I now lay for £10 at odds of 6”

And the answer can be seen down the left hand side of the betting screen.

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If you go back to the first image at the top of this page, you’ll see I also have
“display P&L net of commission” switched on to show me exact profit on
winning.
So let’s do the sums again with a £50 starting stake:

Back the horse at odds of 3 for £50 = (odds of 3 minus 1 for the stake =2)
thus £50 x 2 = £100. Add 20% to your stake to arrive at the lay stake
(£50x20%=£10, add this to £50 = £60). Lay £60 at odds of 2.5. £60 x (2.5-1)
1.5 = £90 so if the horse wins you make £100 (the back return) - £90 (the lay
cost) = £10. If the horse does not win you make £60 (the lay stake & return) -
£50 (the back stake) = £10.

When you win a lay bet you win your stake and the cost of the lay stake is the
stake multiplied by the odds -1. There is a commission payment taken out of
your winnings by the betting exchange and I have ignored this for simplicity. I
don’t want to bog you down with figures here so have a play yourself with the
figures until you’ve cracked it. Again, the free guide will help with this if you
wish to download it. Also, Betfair.com certainly have a demo you can use to
familiarise yourself with how to make these bets and I suggest you have a
good look at it if you need to.

How does the system work specifically? There are 10 important elements:

1. Go to http://horses.sportinglife.com/Stats/ and track down the

trainer/jockey combinations producing a 20% or better win ratio from
their runs over at least 2 out of 3 specific periods. a) The season so far,
b) the last 14-day period and c) the last 7-days. It is vital that these
combos are also showing a 40% or better ratio for places. This image
shows you the relevant sporting life web page (examples here from
14th December 2008) from where this information can be gained:

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This was the current season then, 14-day and 7-day stats table for jump
racing (or at least the top part of those tables) working from left to right:

Look at Dennis O’Regan and J Howard Johnson; they appear near the top on
every table. Thornton and King appear to have fallen off over the last 7 days,
Brennan and Twiston-Davies were really hot a few weeks ago but don’t even
make the upper levels of 14 days right now and so on. Look for those with
high place percentages and better than 20% win percentages. Again, look at
O’Regan and J Howard Johnson – above 20% on wins and above 40% on
places and you start to get the picture.

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2. Having identified a good strong combo in a race, back them to win or
back them to place on the exchange. As to which (back or place)
decide by referring to a) the price (I suggest a 1.8 or better place price
should be a place bet) and b) your attitude to risk (Backing the win will
potentially generate bigger rewards overall because the price
movements are bigger but the horse doesn’t have to win if you back it
to place, it may only need to come 3rd or even 4th).

3. Once the race is under way, lay them in running on the exchange at
20% less than you backed them for or lay them at 10% less, 5% less
and so on depending upon your risk attitude and experience. If you
wish to profit regardless of outcome then back and lay accordingly.

4. Only back horses showing 12 or less to back in the win market and 4 or
less to back in the place market. If you have a red hot combo like
O’Regan and J Howard Johnson then feel free to go higher on odds if
there isn’t another obvious combo in the race you can go with. The
reason for this is one of risk management again. The bigger the price,
the less fancied the horse in the market and the less money there will
be moving around on these horses. You might want to add an
additional safety rule here and only go with horses that are in the top 3,
4 or 5 in the market.

5. Use this method on UK racing only as reliable Irish stats are harder to
find.

6. Only back one horse in any race. If there is more than one, back the
shorter priced horse over the longer priced one provided that the
strength of the combo merits this choice over the other choice. If the
bigger priced horse has clearly stronger combo stats then back that
one.

7. Should you want more selections and want to take slightly more risk,
then you can, if you wish, drop the combo percentage on Sporting Life
Stats to lower levels (say 30% place results) and so on but never back
at more than 12 (win) or 4 (place).

8. Never use this system on combos who have run in less than 10 races
over a season as there simply isn’t enough reliable data. If they are not
mentioned in the season stats at all only back them if they are showing
5 or more runs as a combo over the 14-day or 7-day stats.

9. Should you want to go for larger profits, then hold out for a lower lay
price in running but remember, the lower the lay price requested, the
higher the risk of losing altogether. The method here is that the lay
covers you in case the combo do not perform so don’t be greedy. Also,
if you get the feeling that they are not going well then lay out at around
the same price you backed at if you can. Even, if necessary, lay out at
a higher price than you backed and take a small loss rather than a total
loss. Don’t make these decisions too quickly in 1 mile or more races as

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 horses can suddenly pick up in a race. Also be aware that you can lay
in stages, you don’t have to cover your liability altogether in 1 bet, you
could do it gradually as the price drops.

10. Decide whether to go for profit regardless of result or profit only when
the horse wins or places. In short, if you back for £100 at odds of 2 to
place and lay at £100 at odds of 1.8 you will win (assuming your lay bet
was taken in running) £20 if the horse places and £0 if it doesn’t. If,
however, you were to back for £100 and lay for £101 you would win
£19 if it placed and £1 if it didn’t. I always prefer a little return whatever
the result and a bonus win when the horse does win or place. For ease
at the beginning, it might be wise to simply try to get profit on a winning
outcome and no losses if it doesn’t win so that you are not too
engrossed in the maths.

That is the system. I could go on just for the look of it but then I would just
be padding this out for the sake of it rather than giving you any useful
information. I have, however, included some illustrations at the end (if you
wish to look at them) showing you some examples based upon what to do
on Betfair.com that you might find useful. These are snapshots from a
typical day using this system. I should stress however, that I often go for
larger profits than 20% per bet but these pictures will serve to demonstrate
the operation on the betting exchange. Covered here is the selection
process I go through and the resulting bets I embark upon.

Whilst I personally find this very low-risk to use in the win market (and
therefore predominantly use the win market) do also try it out in the place
market. Try it out in both to see what you prefer. You will be surprised at
how well these combos perform and how rapidly the price can fall in
running sometimes. We are all different and you should start out with small
stakes and small percentage targets. An absolutely essential piece of
advice is this; don’t expect to win every day. You will get days where you
can lose a little but don’t worry; it is the system over the long run that
works for you.

Finally, to ease yourself into this system can I suggest that you go for
quick profits at first by using smaller back/lay price drops? If you were to
go for 10% drops or even 5% drops at first this would help to build
confidence before you start holding out for 20% or even more. Let your
wallet be the judge. It is far better to win £1 on many races than £5 on few.
Of course, this only after you have paper traded for a while!

Winners at gambling are people who understand that they can never
gamble with money that they cannot afford to lose but they are also people
who understand that to win is to know how to simply gain an edge. A small
winning edge over time can amount to a serious profit if you are prepared
to race the whole race and not look for quick fixes.

Remember you can always lay in stages and then reduce your exposure
bit by bit.

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The following pages contain some helpful illustrations of the system in
action. Please bear in mind that these images were taken a little while ago.

The trainer is revealed by simply resting the mouse pointer over the name
of the horse (mousing over). Search the trainer/jockey stats by having the
web page http://horses.sportinglife.com/Stats/ open and ready on your pc.
I tend to search the lists by the jockey name and then look to see if he is
running for a trainer that he/she combines well with in the stats.

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The publisher and Authors of this book disclaims any liability, loss or risk
incurred as a consequence of the use or misuse, either directly or indirectly, of
any information or advice presented in this book.

This book was sold on the understanding that no guarantee of earnings or

promise of future profitability was given either verbally or in writing. The book
simply outlines a strategy that, when followed to the letter, is likely to produce,
although cannot be guaranteed to produce, profits based upon the research
carried out in the preparation of this work. It is an information product first and
foremost.

Although every effort has gone into providing the best system possible, the
reader needs to understand that several factors can influence the outcome of
any horse racing wagers. Such factors would include the use of a good and
reliable staking plan and a sufficient bank to make the required wagers with.
The author and the publisher of this work will not be held responsible for any
losses incurred by any person using this system or any part of the information
provided herein.

Any form of betting, even on a betting exchange, is speculative and you

should never bet with money that you couldn’t afford to lose.

This system was developed in the UK for use with UK Racing. Non-UK
residents need to familiarise themselves with the applicable rules covering
gambling and wagers and horse racing generally in their country and the
author makes no claim that this system would work as well outside of the UK
as it would within.

The right of Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd and John Duncan to be identified
as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, transcribed, stored

in a retrieval system or translated into any language without written
permission of the copyright owner. Contravention of this copyright notice on
any part of this publication will be met by immediate legal action for which the
copyright owner is totally and adequately insured.

Don’t ever let gambling become a problem. If you feel you have a problem
with gambling then please seek help. The following website was set up to help
people understand the facts behind gambling.

http://www.gambleaware.co.uk

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