COTTON
Cotton prices (Cotlook A index) averaged $1.38/kg In the 2009/10 (Aug-Jul) season, global cotton
during 2009, 12 percent lower than in 2008, mostly production totaled 22.2 million tons, down 6 percent
because of weak demand. Price increases during 2008 from 2008/09. Early estimates for 2010/11, based on
were less pronounced for cotton than for other planting intentions, point to a sharp rise in production.
agricultural commodities, because of yield and output Consumption during 2009/10 totaled 23.8 million tons,
increases associated with the increased use of biotech reducing the stock-to-use ratio to 45 percent from last
cotton varieties. season's 53 percent but well above the historical
The world average cotton yield increased from 566 average of 40 percent.
kg/hectare in 1998/99, when these varieties were Given the expected sharp increase in global
introduced, to 792 kg/ha in 2007/08. By 2009/10, production, the Cotlook A Index is expected to
biotech varieties accounted for 53 percent of the global average $1.37/kg during 2010, similar to the 2009
area allocated to cotton. Australia, South Africa, and average but much lower than the $1.57/kg average
the US have fully adopted the technology. The other of 2008. Moderate price increases are expected in the
two key beneficiaries have been China and India, which medium term, as demand picks up from its recent
have 70 and 75 percent, respectively, of their cotton weakness. However, if further expansion of biotech
area planted to biotech varieties and together account varieties takes place in key cotton producers such as
for 70 percent of the global biotech cotton area. Brazil, Pakistan, and Turkey, prices are likely to come
under further downward pressure.
Monthly Prices ($/kg) Annual Prices ($/kg)
1.75 2.75
Constant 2000*
1.50 2.25 Current (Cotlook"A")
forecast
1.25 1.75
1.00 1.25
0.75 0.75
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
*Deflated by global manufacture exports unit value index (in US$).
Source: World Bank Source: World Bank.
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
PRODUCTION (000 metric tons) EXPORTS (000 metric tons)
China 8,078 8,025 6,750 7,748 US 2,973 2,555 2,286 2,319
India 5,355 4,930 5,185 5,260 Uzbekistan 887 550 788 822
US 4,182 2,838 2,721 2,994 Australia 270 230 336 363
Pakistan 1,845 1,920 2,113 2,265 Brazil 486 480 349 351
Brazil 1,603 1,402 1,170 1,270 Burkina Faso 194 156 184 204
Uzbekistan 1,206 1,060 950 1,007 Turkmenistan 185 120 177 197
Turkey 675 450 380 447 Greece 234 161 175 183
Australia 126 315 375 396 Pakistan 62 62 130 130
Turkmenistan 280 297 252 266 Zimbabwe 91 81 86 94
Syria 250 220 200 211 World 8,358 6,176 7,025 6,823
Greece 285 240 200 200 IMPORTS (000 metric tons)
Burkina Faso 150 182 188 207 China 2,511 1,500 1,756 1,751
Argentina 152 130 176 187 Bangladesh 600 551 767 806
Egypt 212 118 104 115 Turkey 700 470 713 615
World 26,280 23,698 22,165 24,005 Pakistan 786 450 546 514
STOCKS (000 metric tons) Indonesia 495 435 449 455
China 3,328 3,226 3,067 3,101 Thailand 420 410 377 366
India 1,541 2,223 1,788 1,744 Vietnam 240 239 317 335
US 2,155 1,654 1,074 1,030 Mexico 333 266 303 243
Pakistan 601 689 718 740 Korea, Rep. 212 190 206 191
Brazil 1,224 949 604 593 Russian Fed. 233 200 196 175
Uzbekistan 384 655 498 433 Taiwan, China 215 185 174 165
World 12,202 12,583 10,677 10,520 World 8,289 6,176 7,025 6,823
Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee
Development Prospects Group, The World Bank Prepared December 30, 2009
