Prevalence of Attention-De Ficit/ Hyperactivity Disorder: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Prevalence of Attention-De Ficit/ Hyperactivity Disorder: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Centre for Research in Evidence-Based Practice (CREBP), Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University, Queensland, Australia
Dr Thomas, Ms Sanders, Dr Doust, and Dr Glasziou conceptualized and designed the study; Dr Thomas led the review process, drafted the initial manuscript, and with
Ms Sanders reviewed all articles and extracted data; and Dr Beller and Dr Thomas analyzed and interpreted the data. All authors made substantial contributions
to revising the manuscript and approved the final manuscript as submitted.
www.pediatrics.org/cgi/doi/10.1542/peds.2014-3482
DOI: 10.1542/peds.2014-3482
Accepted for publication Jan 28, 2015
Address correspondence to Rae Thomas, BEd, PhD, Centre for Research in Evidence-Based Practice (CREBP), Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University,
2 University Dr, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia 4229. E-mail: rthomas@bond.edu.au
PEDIATRICS (ISSN Numbers: Print, 0031-4005; Online, 1098-4275).
Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics
FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE: The authors have indicated they have no financial relationships relevant to this article to disclose.
FUNDING: No external funding.
POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The authors have indicated they have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose.
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prevalence estimate was extracted.
Finally, if a study reported several
prevalence estimates for ADHD based
on full or partial criteria, data were
extracted by using the most
comprehensive criteria available
(eg, we extracted full criteria instead
of partial, severe instead of moderate
ADHD, and clinical instead of
subthreshold).
Prevalence studies often used .1
informant (eg, parent, teacher, child)
to identify children or adolescents
with ADHD symptoms. The most
conservative estimate was again
used: the “and rule” (positive if
endorsed by $2 informants [usually
the parent or the teacher]). We also
coded whether the study used an
“or rule” (positive if endorsed by
either informant). The informant
was coded as “clinician” if the final
stage of screening required
a diagnostic interpretation of
a clinical interview.
Risk of bias was assessed by using
a modified tool developed by Hoy
et al19 for assessing this variable in
prevalence studies. One risk of bias
FIGURE 1 item from Hoy et al19 required
Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses flow diagram. studies use an acceptable case
definition. As we used studies that
reported DSM criteria, we considered
sampling frame, demographic study. The most conservative this item irrelevant to our review and
variables of sample, informant, diagnosis was used in those studies it was not included. We also limited
measures used to make diagnosis reporting .1 estimate. Several response options to a forced choice
(ie, symptom only checklists, reports studies reported lower prevalence of of “low risk” or “high risk.” Risk of
of diagnosis by others, interviews that ADHD when children were the bias criteria included items regarding
were not necessarily conducted by informant compared with parent,13,16 the representativeness of sample,
clinicians), and whether the diagnosis parent compared with teacher,11,13 sampling frame, random selection,
met the full DSM criteria for each and clinicians were reported to nonresponse bias, informant, and
edition (ie, age of onset and duration estimate the lowest prevalence measurement reliability and validity.
for DSM-III; age of onset, duration, compared with any other The more criteria were met, the lower
and symptoms manifest in at least 1 informant.9,13 Therefore, if a study the risk of bias. If the text was
setting for DSM-III-R; age of onset, reported prevalence estimates from unclear, a high risk of bias was then
different informants, we chose child
duration, symptoms manifest in $2 recorded. A study was considered to
over parent or teacher, a parent over have a high overall risk of bias if #3
settings, and clinically significant
teacher, and a clinician over any other criteria were met, moderate risk of
impairment for DSM-IV). The number
informant. If the study was bias if 4 or 5 criteria were met, and
of children/adolescents identified as
longitudinal with multiple prevalence low risk of bias if studies met 6 to
having ADHD was extracted, and
estimates over time in the same 8 criteria.
prevalence was calculated by dividing
sample, the first prevalence estimate
this number by the total sample size. was chosen. If a study reported Statistical Analyses
Only 1 prevalence estimate for each different prevalence estimates for Data were analyzed by using Stata
DSM edition was extracted for each different ages, the combined version 11.1 (Stata Corp, College
FIGURE 2
Characteristics of included studies.
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FIGURE 3
Number and percentage of included studies addressing risk of bias (RoB) questions (N = 178).
(P = .008), 2% higher when symptom 96.9% and 99.3%). Despite the approval dates of significant ADHD
only checklists were used rather than different prevalence estimates, the medications, and the year direct-
clinical interviews (P = .02), and 4% pooled prevalence was not statistically to-consumer advertising commenced
higher when children were diagnosed significantly different between in the United States. When a new
in the Middle East compared with editions of the DSM (DSM-III to DSM edition was published, it was
North America (P = .002) (Table 1). DSM-III-R, P = .9; DSM-III-R to DSM-IV, followed by an increased publication
No other variables were statistically P = .6; DSM-III to DSM-IV, P = .8). of studies with prevalence estimates
significant. After entering all of ADHD with a publication lag
statistically significant variables into Impact of Study Variables on time. Most studies with a prevalence
Prevalence Estimates for Different
a multivariable meta-regression, only estimate of ADHD .10% occurred
DSMs
DSM edition and region remained using the diagnostic criteria of DSM-IV.
significant. After adjusting for In univariable meta-regressions for
measurement and region, prevalence studies conducted with DSM-III
criteria, there was a significant Sensitivity Analysis and Potential
estimates for ADHD were, on average,
increase in prevalence estimates Bias
2% lower when using DSM-III-R
compared with DSM-IV criteria when the informants were parents Sensitivity analyses were conducted
(P = .03) and 2% lower in studies compared with clinicians (parents’ with the 32 studies (contributing
conducted in Europe compared with estimates were, on average, 33 prevalence estimates) that were
North America after adjusting for DSM 8% higher, P = .03). However, no other at the lowest risk of bias. The
edition and measurement (P = .04). study variables were significant. In prevalence estimate of ADHD in these
studies establishing the prevalence of studies was slightly higher at 7.8%
Changes in Prevalence Using ADHD by using DSM-III-R criteria, no (95% CI: 6.6 to 9) but not statistically
Different DSMs study variables helped explain different from the overall pooled
There was a wide range of prevalence heterogeneity. When using DSM-IV prevalence (P = .95). Prevalence
estimates for each DSM. DSM-III criteria, only the region in which the estimates of low risk of bias studies
prevalence ranged from 1% to 12% study was conducted was significant; ranged between 1% and 20%.
and had a pooled prevalence of 5.6% the Middle East had, on average, Heterogeneity remained significant
(95% CI: 3.7 to 7.5). DSM-III-R 3% higher prevalence estimates of (I2 = 99.5%), and there were no
estimates ranged from 0.3% to 11% ADHD than North America (P = .02). statistically significant differences
with a pooled prevalence of 4.7% between prevalence estimates
(95% CI: 3.3 to 6.0). DSM-IV had the Changes in Prevalence Over Time according to the various DSM editions.
widest prevalence range (between Figure 4 plots the prevalence Prevalence estimates were compared
0.2% and 34%) with a pooled estimates of ADHD between 1977 and with study sample size (Supplemental
prevalence of 7.7% (95% CI: 7.1 to 2013 according to year of study Fig 8), similar to a funnel plot, to
8.4). There was significant publication. Also shown are the year detect publication or methodologic
heterogeneity across all studies in of DSM publication, the year of bias. Almost all of the studies with
each DSM edition (I2 ranged between US Food and Drug Administration smaller samples (between 100 and
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benchmark. Over time and editions
of the DSM, the high-quality estimates
of prevalence are relatively
consistent. If diagnoses from national
or state population surveys exceed
our estimate, then prima facie
overdiagnosis of ADHD may be
occurring for some children. If fewer,
then underdiagnosis may be
occurring.
Prevalence estimates matter because
they have an anchoring effect.
If a condition is considered rare,
a clinician does not often consider it
as a primary diagnosis. Conversely,
if deemed common, the condition is
often considered one of the most
likely diagnoses. ADHD is a well-
known, “common” childhood
diagnosis, and publications of high
estimates receive widespread media
coverage. We have established
a benchmark prevalence estimate for
ADHD by systematically extracting
the most robust and conservative
estimates from 36 years of published
FIGURE 4 research.
Prevalence of ADHD over time. aUS Food and Drug Administration approval year. bConducted in the
United States.
There was a wide variation in
prevalence estimates between
studies, and few factors in our meta-
rather than partial criteria).14 This There are no agreed standards regression explain this variation. It is
study is also the first to rate risk of regarding accuracy or reliability of possible that how the diagnostic
bias of prevalence studies for ADHD. different informants, and studies vary criteria were applied may explain
The major limitation of our review is in their informant source. Using the some of the variation. For example,
the sampling frames of the primary most conservative estimates based on although 2 studies may consider the
studies. Few studies used a whole informant and full criteria rather than extent to which ADHD symptoms
population approach with random partial criteria may have affected clinically affect an individual, the
selection. Most were from single prevalence. Finally, only 55 studies subjective interpretation of “clinically
towns or regions, thereby limiting reported clinician involvement in the significant” can vary. This
generalizability. The majority did not diagnosis of ADHD, and studies using qualification was added to DSM-IV
discuss the potential of nonresponse these informants decreased over criteria and has been criticized for its
bias. We also did not contact time; the impact of this outcome is subjectivity.25,26 It has been changed
authors to find unpublished studies; unclear. in the Fifth Edition of the Diagnostic
given the range of prevalence and Statistical Manual of Mental
There is significant community22 and
estimates over the 3 DSM editions, Disorders to symptoms must
professional23 concern that ADHD is
however, we do not consider this “interfere with, or reduce the quality
overdiagnosed. Some researchers24
omission likely to have affected our of” functioning.6 How this change
have argued that to determine if
outcomes. affects the prevalence of ADHD is
overdiagnosis of ADHD has occurred,
unknown.
To ensure that the study data were as a comparison of actual diagnoses
homogeneous as possible, we with the prevalence estimate of
extracted prevalence estimates from a large-scale, well-conducted, national CONCLUSIONS
each by using the study’s most representative study would be Given the range of prevalence
conservative diagnosis. This method suitable. We contend that our estimates in published studies and
may also be a limitation of our review. estimates provide a suitable that these estimates matter to
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Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: A Systematic Review
and Meta-analysis
Rae Thomas, Sharon Sanders, Jenny Doust, Elaine Beller and Paul Glasziou
Pediatrics 2015;135;e994
DOI: 10.1542/peds.2014-3482 originally published online March 2, 2015;
Updated Information & including high resolution figures, can be found at:
Services http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/135/4/e994
Supplementary Material Supplementary material can be found at:
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014-3482.DCSupplemental
References This article cites 24 articles, 1 of which you can access for free at:
http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/135/4/e994.full#ref-list-
1
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Pediatrics is the official journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics. A monthly publication, it
has been published continuously since . Pediatrics is owned, published, and trademarked by the
American Academy of Pediatrics, 141 Northwest Point Boulevard, Elk Grove Village, Illinois,
60007. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics. All rights reserved. Print
ISSN: .