RESEARCH ARTICLE

ON COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT

Submitted by
Roban Thakur
Sansksar Sureka
Sarthak Jalan
Aman Goyal

Submitted to
Prof. Sowmyashree Gupta
Assistant Professor
Hansraj College
 ABSTRACT

Coronaviruses are a group of enveloped viruses with non-segmented, single-

stranded, and positive-sense RNA genomes. Apart from infecting a variety of
economically important vertebrates (such as pigs and chickens), six
coronaviruses have been known to infect human hosts and cause respiratory
diseases. Among them, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-
CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are
zoonotic and highly pathogenic coronaviruses that have resulted in regional
and global outbreaks Coronaviruses possess a distinctive morphology, the
name being derived from the outer fringe, or ―corona‖ of embedded
envelope protein. Members of the family Coronaviridae cause a broad
spectrum of animal and human diseases. Uniquely, replication of the RNA
genome proceeds through the generation of a nested set of viral mRNA
molecules. The spread of the virus encouraged social distancing which led to
the shutdown of financial markets corporate offices, businesses and events.
Second, the exponential rate at which the virus was spreading, and the
heightened uncertainty about how bad the situation could get, led to flight to
safety in consumption and investment among consumers, investors and
international trade partners. We focus on the period from the start of 2020
through March when the coronavirus began spreading into other countries and
markets.

KEYWORDS: Corona, respiratory, viruses, Hcov, host, RNA.

 INTRODUCTION

A novel coronavirus, designated as 2019-nCoV, emerged in Wuhan, China, at

the end of 2019. As of January 24, 2020, at least 830 cases had been diagnosed
in nine countries: China, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam,
Taiwan, Nepal, and the United States. Twenty-six fatalities occurred, mainly in
patients who had serious underlying illness. Although many details of the
emergence of this virus — such as its origin and its ability to spread among
humans — remain unknown, an increasing number of cases appear to have
resulted from human-to-human transmission. Given the severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) outbreak in 2002 and the Middle
East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in 2012, 2019-
nCoV is the third coronavirus to emerge in the human population in the past
two decades — an emergence that has put global public health institutions on
high alert.

China responded quickly by informing the World Health Organization (WHO) of

the outbreak and sharing sequence information with the international
community after discovery of the causative agent. The WHO responded rapidly
by coordinating diagnostics development; issuing guidance on patient
monitoring, specimen collection, and treatment; and providing up-to-date
information on the outbreak. Several countries in the region as well as the
United States are screening travellers from Wuhan for fever, aiming to detect
2019-nCoV cases before the virus spreads further. Updates from China,
Thailand, Korea, and Japan indicate that the disease associated with 2019-
nCoV appears to be relatively mild as compared with SARS and MERS.

Coronaviruses make up a large family of viruses that can infect birds and
mammals, including humans, according to world health organisation (WHO).
These viruses have been responsible for several outbreaks around the world,
including the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemic of 2002-
2003 and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in South
Korea in 2015. Most recently, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, also known as
COVID-19) triggered an outbreak in China in December 2019, sparking
international concern. While some coronaviruses have caused devastating
epidemics, others cause mild to moderate respiratory infections, like the
common cold.
• Transmission

Limited research is available on how HCoV spreads from one person to the
next. HoweverHowever, researchers believe that the viruses transmit via fluids
in the respiratory system, such as mucus.

Coronaviruses can spread in the following ways:

Coughing and sneezing without covering the mouth can disperse droplets into
the air. Touching or shaking hands with a person who has the virus can pass
the virus between individuals. Making contact with a surface or object that has
the virus and then touching the nose, eyes, or mouth. Some animal
coronaviruses, such as feline coronavirus (FCoV), may spread through contact
with feces. However, it is unclear whether this also applies to human
coronaviruses. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) suggest that several
groups of people have the highest risk of developing complications due to
COVID-19.

These groups include:

1. Young children
2. People aged 65 years or older
3. Women who are pregnant

Coronaviruses will infect most people at some time during their lifetime.
Coronaviruses can mutate effectively, which makes them so contagious.
To prevent transmission, people should stay at home and rest while symptoms
are active. They should also avoid close contact with other people. Covering
the mouth and nose with a tissue or handkerchief while coughing or sneezing
can also help prevent transmission. It is important to dispose of any tissues
after use and maintain hygiene around the home.

In 2019, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) started
monitoring the outbreak of a new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which causes the
respiratory illness now known as COVID-19. Authorities first identified the virus
in Wuhan, China. More than 74,000 people have contracted the virus in China.
Health authorities have identified many other people with COVID-19 around
the world, including many in the United States. On January 31, 2020, the virus
passed from one person to another in the U.S. The World Health Organization
(WHO) have declared a public health emergency relating to COVID-19.
 Since then, this strain has been diagnosed in several U.S. residents. The CDC
have advised that it is likely to spread to more people. COVID-19 has started
causing disruption in at least 25 other countries.
The first people with COVID-19 had links to an animal and seafood market. This
fact suggested that animals initially transmitted the virus to humans. However,
people with a more recent diagnosis had no connections with or exposure to
the market, confirming that humans can pass the virus to each other.

212 Countries and Territories around the world have reported a total
of 3319955 confirmed cases of the coronavirus COVID-19 that originated from
Wuhan, China, and a death toll of 234279 deaths.

Following is the list of the top 10 countries in terms of the number of cases
going from higher to lower:

COUNTRY CASES DEATHS

United States 10,95,304 63,871
Spain 2,39,639 24,543
Italy 2,05,463 27,967
United Kingdom 1,71,253 26,771
France 1,67,178 24,376
Germany 1,63,009 6,623
Turkey 1,20,204 3,174
Russia 1,14,431 1,169
Iran 94,640 6,028
Brazil 87,187 6,006

• FUTURE IMPACT ON THE WORLD ECONOMY

There are a number of possible futures, all dependent on how governments
and society respond to coronavirus and its economic aftermath. Hopefully we
will use this crisis to rebuild, produce something better and more humane. But
we may slide into something worse.

I think we can understand our situation – and what might lie in our future – by
looking at other crises. Lockdown is placing pressure on the global
economy. We face a serious recession. This pressure has led some world
leaders to call for an easing of lockdown measures.

The economics of collapse are fairly straight forward. Businesses exist to make
a profit. If they can’t produce, they can’t sell things. This means they won’t
 make profits, which means they are less able to employ you. Businesses can
and do (over short time periods) hold on to workers that they don’t need
immediately: they want to be able to meet demand when the economy picks
back up again. But, if things start to look really bad, then they won’t. So, more
people lose their jobs or fear losing their jobs. So they buy less and the whole
cycle starts again, and we spiral into an economic depression.

So we can think about what might happen if we try to respond to the

coronavirus with the following four extreme combinations:

1. State capitalism: centralised response, prioritising exchange value

2. Barbarism: decentralised response, prioritising exchange value
3. State socialism: centralised response, prioritising the protection of life
4. Mutual aid: decentralised response, prioritising the protection of life.

• Economic Impacts on the Globe

The coronavirus outbreak, which was first detected in China, has infected
people in 185 countries. Its spread has left businesses around the world
counting the costs. Initially, the perception was that the COVID-19 pandemic
would be localized in China only. It later spread across the world through the
movement of people. The economic pain became severe as people were asked
to stay at home, and the severity was felt in various sectors of the economy
with travel bans affecting the aviation industry, sporting event cancellations
affecting the sports industry, the prohibition of mass gatherings affecting the
events and entertainment industries.

There are parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and the events of 2007-2008:
as in 2020, many people in the earlier recession assumed the impacts would
largely be localized (in that case based on an assumption that the subprime
mortgage crisis would be a relatively minor problem affecting only the US, but
ultimately affecting the global financial system) (Elliot, 2020). The sudden
economic disruption caused by COVID-19 is not only destructive but also has
spillover implications because it created demand and supply shocks in almost
every area of human endeavour.

Global shares take a hit

Big shifts in stock markets, where shares in companies are bought and sold,
can affect the value of pensions or individual savings accounts (ISAs). The FTSE,
Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nikkei have all seen huge falls since the
outbreak began on 31 December. Investors fear the spread of the coronavirus
will destroy economic growth and that government action may not be enough
to stop the decline. In response, central banks in many countries, including the
United Kingdom, slashed interest rates. That should, in theory, make
borrowing cheaper and encourage spending to boost the economy. Global
markets did also recover some ground in late March after the US Senate
passed a $2 trillion (£1.7tn) coronavirus aid bill to help workers and businesses.
But some analysts have warned that they could be volatile until the pandemic
is contained.

More people seeking work

In the United States, the number of people filing for unemployment hit a
record high, signalling an end to a decade of expansion for one of the world's
largest economies. Close to one million people in the United Kingdom also
applied for benefits in just two weeks at the end of March. The surge in
universal credit applications followed government measures to limit the spread
of the virus, including closing pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops.

Oil prices crash

Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept
people inside. The crude oil price had already been affected by a row between
Opec, the group of oil producers, and Russia. Coronavirus has driven the price
down further. Brent crude is the benchmark used by Europe and the rest of the
world. Its price dipped below $20, to the lowest level seen in 18 years. In the
United States, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) turned
negative for the first time in history.

Turn to Technology
Governments around the world have urged employees to work from home
where possible. Shares in technology companies such as Zoom have shot up as
more people rely on video conference calls and email to hold meetings or get
tasks done. The demand for online shopping and entertainment has also
soared as people stay indoors. Amazon's share price has hit new highs, while
streaming platform Netflix was at one point a more valuable company than oil
giant ExxonMobil.
• General policy response
The policy measures introduced by policy makers around the world to cope
with the coronavirus- induced global recession can be divided into four
categories: (i) monetary measures, (ii) fiscal measures, (iii) public health
measures, and (iv) human control measures.
• Monetary policy measures
Expansionary monetary measures were adopted by many central banks to
stimulate the economy through interest rate adjustments, as shown in table 5
and 6.
 CONCLUSION

We analysed the coronavirus outbreak and the spillover to the global

economy which triggered the global recession in 2020. Policy makers in
many countries were under pressure to respond to the coronavirus
outbreak. As a result, many governments made fast policy decisions that
had far- reaching positive and negative effects on their respective economy
– many countries plunged into a recession. Social distancing policies and
lockdown restrictions were imposed in many countries, and there have been
arguments that such social policies can trigger a recession. Our findings in
section 5 showed that a 30-day social distancing policy or lockdown
restriction hurts the economy through a reduction in the level of general
economic activities and through its negative effect on stock prices.

Lawmakers in many countries supported an extended social distancing

policy, damning the consequences of social distancing on the economy.
The recession that followed, which many countries experienced, was a
reflection of the difficult choice that policy makers had to make in choosing
whether to save the economy before saving the people or to save the
people before saving the economy; many countries chose the latter. There
were criticisms that the policies were too fast, premature or insufficient, and
that the policies contradicted one another in some areas, for instance, the
accommodative monetary policy encouraged economic agents to engage in
economic activities while the lockdowns and social-distancing (stay-at-
home) policy prevented economic activities from taking place.

On the bright side, the coronavirus-induced public health crisis created an

opportunity for many governments to make lasting reforms in the public
health sector. Countries like the UK and Spain repaired their public health
care system, and fixed other shortcomings in public infrastructure such as
the transition to online education, transportation systems and the disease
detection systems in public hospitals. Some governments also used the crisis
as an opportunity to fix the economic system and the financial system with
the planned federal stimulus package.

Our study has some limitations. The main limitation of this research paper is
the short period of analysis due to limited dataset. A longer study
period may capture the socioeconomic consequences of government
policies during the coronavirus crisis. Also, as future events unfold, there
could be spillovers to other sectors that we did not analyse in this study.
Future studies on spillovers could be extended to two directions. First,
future studies can examine the impact on government policy on the
informal economy. Second, it would be important to explore how banks and
financial institutions react to economic policy developments during the
coronavirus crisis.