Aging and Urbanization: Principles For Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
Aging and Urbanization: Principles For Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
FINANCIAL Institute
Aging and
Urbanization
Principles for Creating Sustainable,
Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
January 2016
To Thrive In The 21st Century,
Cities Must Embrace An Influx Of
(Mostly Older) Residents
T
wo inexorable and intersecting demographic trends are already defining the 21st century: rapid urbanization
and an aging population. The world’s cities must meet the challenges posed by these changes to compete on a
global scale.
Widely accepted statistics bring these challenges into clear focus. By 2030, more than 1 billion people — one in every
eight — will be aged 65 or older.1 And just two decades later, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population will live in urban
areas, up from just over half today1a, with nearly 1 billion older people living in cities in the developing world alone.
These demographic realities mandate that urban centers adapt an intergenerational view of growth and development.
In European cities such as Madrid, Lisbon and Warsaw, elderly residents represent a greater proportion of inhabitants
than the national average. Meanwhile, Italy and Germany are home to the majority of the world’s cities with old-age
dependency rates — defined as the ratio of those over age 64 to the working population — of 35% or more.2 Clearly,
for the European Union to meet its goal of “smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth” by 2020, cities — as well as
national economies — need to adapt in ways that allow countries to tap the economic potential of older residents
while also cultivating younger generations.
This need extends far beyond Europe. It will take significant action
by governments around the world to enable cities and economies
The 21st-century social
to thrive in an era that will soon see more old than young for the contract for urban life
first time in human history. Toward this end, the World Health
Organization (WHO) has identified 24 principles that promote must be rooted in an
active participation, health and security and independence for
people of all ages. These guidelines have been used by the WHO to
age-friendly philosophy.
develop, implement and evaluate local action plans that create age-friendly urban environments.
Despite the challenging nature of these looming trends, changing demographics also present opportunities, with
broad public support for government investment in age-friendly resources. This is especially important given
that financial and economic issues of a graying population have so far dominated the conversation about this
demographic trend.
2 1
ational Institute on Aging (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services), Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective (2007); 1a United Nations Department of Economic and Social
N
Affairs, 2014 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects (2014); 2 Eurostat, Statistics on European Cities (data from March 2015)
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
- O
pportunities for continuing work, education, and recreation for
2. Housing to enable aging in place that pro-
all ages. motes independence, choice and freedom;
• uilding age-friendly cities that can accommodate
B
the next generation will require the public and private 3. Access to community health programs
sector to come together. MHFI calls for three immediate with innovative technology and excellent
actions to move the conversation toward action: medical interventions; and
- Develop an economic case for aging in place.
A recent public opinion survey commissioned by the McGraw Hill Financial Global Institute underscored the attention
that the world’s city dwellers are paying to the importance of a multi-generational approach, and gauged their opinions
of the importance of these principles (see page 4 for detailed findings). Their interest in matters related to aging was
overwhelming: more than nine out of ten respondents believed that governments should invest more resources to
ensure the health, security and well-being of their aging populations.
Unfortunately, with the exception of China, a majority of respondents said they do not trust government leaders to solve
these challenges, with access to health care and infrastructure investment the most widely recognized areas of need.
3
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Aging 2010: An Irreversible Truth (2010); 4 American Society on Aging, Can Japan Serve as a Model for U.S. Health and Long-Term Care Systems? 3
(2013) 5 PassBlue (CUNY Graduate Center), The World’s 10 Oldest Nations by Population and the Implications (2015)
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
which can also enable further age-friendly development. Just as city leaders of the past fostered innovation aligned to the
trends of those times — such as industrialization and manufacturing, technological revolutions and baby booms — they
must now plan for the sea change accompanying increased urbanization and longevity.
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has examined the economic effects of increased longevity for more than a
decade, writing in a 2010 report that “[n]o other force is likely to change the future of national economic health,
public finances, and policymaking as the irreversible rate at which the world’s population is aging.”6 Yet the dominant
sources of global investment and development continue to fall short as a needed mechanism of change that would
allow cities to turn demographic burdens into opportunities.
4 6
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Aging 2010: An Irreversible Truth (2010)
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
To be sure, an aging population creates some tension between the desire to contain government budgets and
the need to sustain public spending on pensions and health care7 — as well as the need to increase spending on
infrastructure. Evidence of the benefits of increased spending can be seen in the potential economic returns of
targeted infrastructure investment. In fact, according to economic research by Standard & Poor’s, this “multiplier
effect” can run as high as 2.5 times8 over a three year period. In other words, for each additional dollar allocated for
public-sector investment in a given year, about $2.50 would be added to real GDP in the next three years. The effect
is generally greater in developing economies such as China, India and Brazil, where immediate effects can be seen
than for more developed countries, where a main benefit is the boost to employment. Not that this longer-term effect
should be underestimated, especially since it is a key mechanism for tackling the pension challenge that resonates
throughout Europe.
Percentage of people who agree or At the same time, the challenges of infrastructure
investment are at the forefront throughout Latin
strongly agree that governments do not America where average infrastructure expenditures
allocate sufficient resources to public hover around 3% of GDP, below the global average
pension and health care programs of 3.8%. This low level of investment is especially
unfortunate, given that Standard & Poor’s projects
91% 85% 83% 80% 76% 70% the potential payoffs as relatively large throughout
the region, ranging from a multiple of 1.3 in Mexico
to 2.5 in Brazil.11
[Source: Edelman Berland survey on Aging and Urbanization,
In many ways, developing economies are well-
commissioned by McGraw Hill Financial Global Institute]
positioned to be at the vanguard of the movement to build and adapt infrastructure systems for a demographically
diverse populace. In these nations, crumbling legacy systems and structures are not the burden they sometimes are in
more developed areas, allowing these countries to capitalize on technological advancements and start from square one.
Beyond providing foundational needs, such as roads and transport systems, these countries can focus on tailoring
their infrastructure to shifting populations, such as power grids designed to handle the peak demands of high
concentrations of people, robust sanitation systems that account for whole life needs and public-transit networks
that rely on sustainable sources while allowing easy access to economic opportunities and health care for older
populations. These countries can orient their infrastructure to meet mobility issues, vision challenges and other
concerns that disproportionately affect the elderly.
Most marquee infrastructure projects involve improvements to, or the construction of, transportation networks —
a priority that 80 to 99 percent of survey respondents support. But as the rate of urbanization accelerates, other
projects hold the promise of positive investment returns. For example, water and waste management facilities,
power grids, telecommunication networks and social infrastructure will need to reflect the changing demographics of
cities. Meeting this challenge will require a combination of public and private investment to fill a funding gap between
7
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Aging 2013: Rising To The Challenge (2013); 8 Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Infrastructure: Timing Is Everything (2015); 9 Standard & 5
Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Aging 2013: Rising To The Challenge (2013); 10 Ibid.; 11 Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Infrastructure: Timing Is Everything (2015)
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
All told, the confluence of rapid urbanization and increased longevity represents an opportunity for policy makers,
corporations and investors to take the lead in creating the cities that will prosper most in the coming decades.
A variety of governments and global institutions have begun responding to the call to create age-friendly cities. In
2015 the World Economic Forum established its “Age-Friendly Business Principles” to help demonstrate how this
demographic shift can drive economic growth at the national, regional and global levels — as well as to highlight
companies that have positioned themselves for this opportunity.
Meanwhile, Europe — perhaps unsurprisingly — is the region that has most readily prepared to develop such age-
friendly cities. In fact, the European Commission has identified healthy aging as one of three platforms to achieve as
part of its Europe 2020 economic growth strategy.14
6 12
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Infrastructure: How to Fill a $500 Billion Hole (2014); 13 World Health Organization, Ageing and Life Course;
European Commission, Europe 2020: A strategy for smart, sustainable growth (2015)
14
Promoting The Principles
T
hese initiatives suggest that managing such shifting demographics requires solutions that break deep-seated
paradigms and are technologically disruptive and innovative. Working closely with the Global Coalition on Aging and
drawing heavily from the existing guidelines set forward by the WHO and the World Economic Forum, the McGraw
Hill Financial Global Institute has developed a set of focused principles to help cities and governments decide how best to
allocate limited resources. As this conversation continues on a global scale, these principles aim to define this disruption and
innovation and map a path toward developing the successful, self-sustaining, self-perpetuating cities of the 21st century.
Principle 1:
Infrastructure and Transportation
Providing the services, tools and programs that keep older citizens mobile, connected and included in the activities that drive societal
growth will enable them to engage in commerce and, thus, contribute to economic expansion. From workplaces to public spaces, and
transit systems to ride services, the structures that connect people — and the technologies that facilitate them — will be essential for
cities to foster future growth.
When social participation decreases with age, the likelihood of health problems increases — often in conjunction with one’s loss of the
ability to drive safely. Creating ways to keep older people — especially those who live alone — connected with their environments can help
prevent loneliness and social isolation. This, in turn, can lead to improved physical and emotional health. As populations age, infrastructure
and transportation systems that can handle varying levels of mobility will bolster growth and help reduce health care costs and other costs
associated with dependence.
15
Transportation For America, Fixing the Mobility Crisis Threatening the Baby Boom Generation (2011) 7
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
Principle 2:
Housing that Enables Aging In Place
Creating housing that enables and promotes older adults to remain at home will help delay — and, in many cases, altogether
avoid — institutional care for the oldest individuals, which can incur devastating costs for individuals, families and entire
societies. As the number of people 80 and older grows faster than any other demographic, the aggregate costs of long-term
institutional care could hold back economic growth. In Japan, the dependency ratio (the ratio of children and elderly to working-
age adults) will be virtually 1-to-1 by 2050, and other countries are mirroring this trend.16 Meanwhile, the annual cost for
nursing home care in the U.S. has risen to $77,380-$87,600 per person.17
Though aging in place will not entirely remove the costs of care, it can reduce them substantially, especially as new technologies
and other innovations make it more efficient. The opportunities to make the “smart home” safe and hospitable for older adults are
seemingly limitless. Already, transformative technologies such as “telehealth,” which delivers health-related services and information
and enables remote patient monitoring via telecommunications networks, have made it to market. Additionally, new demand for in-
home caregivers will be created, with the potential to at least partially offset the loss of jobs in institutional settings.
In cities with a pronounced proportion of aging residents, the ability of landlords to adjust rents for existing tenants tends
to be highly regulated. This leads to elderly residents staying in their apartments longer because rents are low (sometimes
considerably below market rates), as compared to moving elsewhere. This encourages intergenerational cities — but only if the
housing market is flexible enough to induce younger generations to live alongside older residents.
Principle 3:
Community Health Programs
Highlighting information and services that promote health, prevention and wellness to older citizens as well as those across the
age spectrum will raise awareness of the chronic conditions that increase with age and promote behaviors earlier in life that
improve health outcomes and lower the costs of care. Greater access to information that promotes healthier living, similar to
measures that curbed tobacco consumption and encouraged the use of seat belts, can encourage healthier behaviors. Investing
in health throughout the life cycle and applying these examples to prevent non-communicable diseases and maintaining
functional ability (as reflected in the WHO’s October 2015 World Report on Ageing and Health18] will lead to more active lives and
reduced costs as residents age. In 2013, Standard & Poor’s highlighted health care spending as a high-impact cost that policy
makers had neglected to address, and recommended that “the focus should now [shift] toward improving the design of health
care systems and containing health care spending.”19
Community health services offer solutions while simultaneously creating opportunities on these issues. Viewing health spending as
an investment in future growth and economic security is contrary to conventional thinking, but it is essential in this era of longevity.
8 16
United Nations, 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects, Medium Variant (2015); 17 Genworth Financial, 2014 Cost of Care Survey (2014); 18
World Health Organization, 2015 World Report
on Ageing and Health (2015); 19 Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Global Aging 2013: Rising To The Challenge (2013)
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
Community Health In Action: Such investment must start early — for instance,
with programs geared toward the first 1,000 days of
In 2012, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron launched life — to help truly achieve wellness and prevention.
the Dementia Friends initiative, which aims to improve While access to information and tools that educate
citizens about prevention, nutrition and active aging
the lives of those living with dementia in part by encourage healthy lifestyles and behaviors, it can
changing the way people think, talk, and act about it. also help remove the stigma of aging and associated
age-related conditions and challenges such as
In Singapore, the city-state launched a Falls Alzheimer’s disease.
Prevention Programme in 2012 including health
The McGraw Hill Financial Global Institute survey found
screening for the elderly who are highest risk of falls, that community health is the area where people think
government is focusing the most attention, with more
access to a public education programme and a free
than 58 percent of people in the six countries surveyed
pair of non-slip shoes. reporting that government is taking the necessary steps
to ensure access to community health care facilities.
Principle 4:
Continuing Work, Education, Arts and Recreation
Opportunities for engagement in society through work, education, arts and recreation lead to social inclusion, individual well-be-
ing, and ongoing economic contributions throughout one’s life. At a time when 20th-century conventions shape our thinking
— giving rise to fears that the workforce is dwindling, public pensions are waning, and generations are competing for jobs — we
must adopt new social norms in light of longevity.
In fact, older people can be drivers of growth — in the workplace, through education and training in new fields, via volunteer
work, and by contributing their wisdom and experience to the community. As the WHO outlines in its principles for age-friend-
ly cities, “The whole community benefits from the participation of older persons in volunteer or paid work and civic activities.
Finally, the local economy benefits from the patronage of older adult consumers.”20
Programs that improve access to work, education, arts and recreation for all citizens encourage entrepreneurship and the
search for second (or third) careers, leading to longer lives in which residents are active, engaged contributors to society.
Such programs also promote mental health and minimize social isolation. A Mayo Clinic study showed that Americans over age
85 who said they engaged in things like painting, quilting or book clubs during middle age were less likely to develop memory
impairments that may precede dementia.21 In this light, cities need the infrastructure to foster a 21st-century view of personal
and professional development and social interaction, which must extend well beyond traditional retirement age.
20
World Health Organization, Global Age-Friendly Cities: A Guide (2007); 21 Roberts, Dr. Rosebud, et. al, The Mayo Clinic, Risk and protective factors for cognitive impairment in persons aged 85 years 9
and older (2015)
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
world expected to live in cities by 2050, nations with traditions of close family bonding — including families living close
by or under the same roofs — must learn to accommodate such conditions in an urban setting.
At stake is not just the health and productiveness of older adults, but sustainable economic growth for all. The
21st-century social contract for urban life must be rooted in an age-friendly philosophy. This will prepare younger
generations — and their children, and so on — for a profound shift that will reshape and redefine societal institutions.
As we live longer, capturing the benefits where aging meets urbanization will require public policy changes aligned to
the institutional reforms required for economic growth and social inclusion across all aspects of life.
Age-friendly action is already taking beds for the elderly and encourages all Sausalito, California, USA - Call A Ride
place around the world. Many cities have grassroots medical institutions to provide Sausalito Seniors (CARSS) of Sausalito,
operated as part of the WHO’s framework health services and monitor conditions of California provides free rides for people
and within its network. Others have people aged 65 and older. aged 60 or older. CARSS is a volunteer
launched their own initiatives, often in drive program providing up to two free
Hong Kong – The Hong
partnership with business, academia and one-way, door-to-door rides per day for
Kong Housing Society set
non-profits. The following examples are older adults and persons with disabilities
up the Elderly Resource
models that can be adopted. in driver-owned passenger cars. In
Center to promote the
2015 the program expanded to include
concept of aging in place within the
ASIA-PACIFIC transportation to city wide events.
community. The website offers education,
training and assessments, as well as Hamilton, Ontario,
Seoul, South Korea advice on age-friendly housing design. Canada – The City of
– To make the Hamilton, in partnership
subway system more with the Hamilton
EUROPE
accessible to seniors, Council on Aging, Ontario Sport and
the city introduced several age-friendly Newcastle, England – Newcastle’s Older Recreation Communities Fund, McMaster
adaptations, including elevators at each People’s Delivery Plan develops service University and senior volunteers,
station, platforms with automatic gates, models, good practices, and a pipeline assessed walking trails across Hamilton
LCD screens displaying real-time train of schemes to ensure older people are to create “Let’s Take a Walk: An Age-
arrival times and comprehensive voice safely housed and can remain in their friendly Guide to 18 of Hamilton’s
announcements on trains. homes as long as they wish. The plan Outdoor Recreational Trails.” The guide
Canberra, Australia – Canberra’s Life’s includes technological care elements. assessed features including design,
Reflections Photographic Competition amenities, maintenance and esthetics in
Basque Country, Spain – Four towns
aims to celebrate the contributions of an effort to promote the health benefits
have launched the “Age-friendly Business
older people within the community. It of walking and outdoor activities.
Initiative,” an educational campaign to
encourages people of all ages and walks help businesses attract older customers
of life to use photography to promote affected by loss of mobility, vision and SOUTH AMERICA
“positive, diverse and thought-provoking hearing impairments and dementia. They
images” of older people. La Plata, Argentina –
have also partnered with the Alzheimer’s
La Plata was one of
Wellawaya, Sri Lanka Association to help businesses
the original 15 pilot
- HelpAge Sri Lanka understand the impact of dementia.
age-friendly cities in
launched a mobile eye
the WHO network. Since then, the city
camp for older persons in NORTH AMERICA has developed initiatives such as the
Wellawaya. The camp provided eye exams,
arrangement of sidewalks, public toilets
free reading and prescription glasses New York, New York, USA
and improved driver training in public
where needed, guidance on proper eye - The New York Academy
and private transport. As early as 2002,
care and recommendations to their eye of Medicine partnered
La Plata formed La Red Mayor (“The
hospital in Colombo for those who required with the Mayor’s Office
Senior Network”], a local network of clubs,
cataract surgeries. and the city council to launch “Age-
journalists and scientific organizations
China – China’s 12th “Five Year friendly NYC College Link,” America’s first
dedicated to making the city more livable
Development Plan on Ageing” includes searchable online database connecting
for older people.
developing a nationwide system of older older adults with mostly free educational
persons’ homes with 3.42 million more opportunities at local universities.
10
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
2. rovide opportunities for innovation. Unfortunately, the word “old” is now used to describe large numbers of
P
experienced, educated professionals with unparalleled perspective on how to improve the world. In the United
States, 23% of new entrepreneurs in 2011-2012 were 55-64 years old.22 IBM and Intel have each created
programs that allow younger employees to leverage senior expertise through technology, but innovation both for
and from older demographic groups remains insufficient. Some simple ways to promote innovation that attracts
seniors include loan programs dedicated to providing start-up funds for entrepreneurs over the age of 55;
corporate educational forums that provide examples of how to tap into senior expertise; and awards programs
to highlight corporate practices that foster cross-generational knowledge-sharing, a tactic with particular
impact in manufacturing and industrial professions.
22
Fairley, Robert W., Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, 1996-2013 Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity (2014) 11
Aging and Urbanization:
Principles for Creating Sustainable, Growth-Oriented and Age-Friendly Cities
3.
Create incentives for intergenerational policies and investment. Public-private partnerships draw private
investment, but government support (through tax breaks, fund-matching programs, and other specific
initiatives) often serves as the trigger. To reorient investment toward cross-generational priorities, governments
need to take the first step. This can include bringing together partners with an interest in serving an older
cohort of consumers, creating specific tax structures that reward demographically diverse initiatives, building
educational systems that account for lifelong learning, or focusing health care efforts on community-based
wellness. With community engagement that links the interests of both younger and older consumers in place,
cities and partners then will have the option to reinforce successful initiatives with targeted support.
Paper is authored by the Global Coalition on Aging and the McGraw Hill Financial Global Institute
12 23
Nielsen, Introducing Boomers: Marketing’s Most Valuable Generation (2012)