Scribd
Upload
27 views1 page

The 2014 Oscars Do Not Add Up

The mathematician Ben Zauzmer created a system to predict the winners of the 86th Academy Awards based on rigid mathematical criteria from previous Oscar data. His model gives Gravity a 48% chance of winning Best Picture over favorites like 12 Years a Slave (15% chance) and American Hustle (17% chance). While the system is scientifically valid, probabilities only confirm expectations and lower probability outcomes sometimes end up winning in reality. Zauzmer himself warns not to rely too heavily on the numbers.

Uploaded by

Antonello Auciello
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
27 views1 page

The 2014 Oscars Do Not Add Up

The mathematician Ben Zauzmer created a system to predict the winners of the 86th Academy Awards based on rigid mathematical criteria from previous Oscar data. His model gives Gravity a 48% chance of winning Best Picture over favorites like 12 Years a Slave (15% chance) and American Hustle (17% chance). While the system is scientifically valid, probabilities only confirm expectations and lower probability outcomes sometimes end up winning in reality. Zauzmer himself warns not to rely too heavily on the numbers.

Uploaded by

Antonello Auciello
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 1

The 2014 Oscars do not add up

Math is not an opinion, as is known. Yet it is difficult not to doubt the predictions for the 86th
Academy Awards drafted by Ben Zauzmer, a mathematician at Harvard University. For the American
scholar, who we can thank for a system of probability created ad hoc for the statuettes, this coming
March 2nd the Oscar for (the) Best Picture will be awarded to Gravity, the sci-fi directed by Alfonso
Cuaron, who will moreover/also win the award for Best Director. No dice/Nothing doing for the
favored 12 Years a Slave and its most accredited competitor American Hustle, no offense to the U.S.
critics and bookmakers, who have bet heavily on these last two titles.

The Zauzmer system, developed two years ago, uses no other type of assessment than (that of) rigid
mathematical criteria. The nice/amazing thing is that it has a fairly high degree of accuracy: in 2012,
it got 75 percent of its predictions right, in 2013 81 percent.

But what is the methodology defined/developed by Zauzmer based on? “I only use the math,” he
says, “excluding personal preferences or feelings. I take the data from previous years, and I compare
them, using awards, nominations and critical scores in order to determine the relative weight of each
factor on each of the categories.”

While the system can be considered scientifically valid that does not mean it has a crystal ball. Quite
the contrary. Suffice it to say that the Zauzmer method assigns Gravity a modest 48% chance of
winning (American Hustle 17%, 12 Years a Slave 15%). Higher probabilities are accredited to Cuaron
for Best Director (69%), McConaughey for Best Actor (71%) and Cate Blanchett for Best Actress
(71%), but this time the calculation of probabilities only confirms the high expectations that there
already are for these names.

On the other hand, as Zauzmer himself says, “using numbers to predict the Oscars is fun, but be
careful: the events that have a lower probability of occurrence are often the ones that occur in
reality.”

You might also like