Sea Level Rise, Inundation Risks, and
How to Live With Them
Skip Stiles
Executive Director, Wetlands Watch
Hampton Waterways Committee
January 25, 2011
www.wetlandswatch.org
Virginia Climate Change Commission:
Climate Change Impacts
• At Least 2.3 feet of sea level rise (up to 5.2 feet) in
next 100 years
• 3.1 o C increase in average temperature
• Increase in Rainfall Intensity (~11%)
www.wetlandswatch.org
Sea Level Rise – Virginia’s Biggest
Challenge
Recent Historical Sea Level Rise
Rise +
Hot
Fall -
Cold
www.wetlandswatch.org EPA 2009
Recent Historical Sea Level Rise
Glaciers 2 miles thick over New York =
Sea Level 360 feet lower
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ~ 20,000 Years Ago
- 360 Feet
www.wetlandswatch.org
John Earle /Virginian-Pilot
Recent Historical Sea Level Rise
Last “Big Melt” of glaciers = oceans 4-6 m
above present sea level with +3 o C
temperatures
Previous Coastline?
~150,000 Years Ago
(+5 m)
Impact Crater
~ 35 million
years ago
Recent Historical Sea Level Rise
RECENT MID-ATLANTIC SEA LEVEL RISE
Norfolk/Virginia Beach
5,000 YEARS AGO
7,000 YEARS AGO
Depth Below
Current Sea 10,000 YEARS AGO
Level (in
Meters) 14,000 YEARS AGO
www.wetlandswatch.org Source: UNC Research Laboratories of Archeology
Land Sinking
One foot
Land Rising
www.wetlandswatch.org The Cost of Holding Back the Sea, Titus, et al
Virginia has the highest NOAA current and predicted sea level
increases on East Coast
Outside of New
Orleans, Hampton
Roads is largest
population area at
highest risk from Sea
Level Rise in the US
Wetlands Watch - 2007
www.wetlandswatch.org EPA 2008
Sewells Point Historical Sea Level Record
The mean sea level trend is 4.42 millimeters/year
(1.45 feet/century)
www.wetlandswatch.org Monthly Mean Sea Level 1927 – 1999 (units in tenth of meter/yr)
What Makes up our Relative Sea Level Rise?
Relative Sea Level Rise in
Land Falling tidewater/coastal Virginia
An additional ~2 mm/yr due to regional
~ .6 feet subsidence from
• isostatic rebound
• groundwater removal
• meteorite impact
Sea Rising
~1 – 1.7 feet GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE
2.8 – 5.3 mm/yr from thermal expansion and
melting of land glaciers (Rhamstorf)
100 year Sea Level Rise Projections (2008) www.wetlandswatch.org
Storm Surges Make Sea Level Rise
“Real”
DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day nor’easter 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving nor’easter 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin nor’easters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin nor’easters (#2) 3.12 feet
Source – NOAA Tides and Currents www.wetlandswatch.org
Mean Higher High Water = lower limit of development
Limit of Development
MHHW
MHW
MSL
MLW
DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day nor’easter 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving nor’easter 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin nor’easters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin nor’easters (#2) 3.12 feet
Source – NOAA Tides and Currents www.wetlandswatch.org
DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day nor’easter 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet - 1.5 feet in
1906
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving nor’easter 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin nor’easters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin nor’easters (#2) 3.12 feet
Source – NOAA Tides and Currents www.wetlandswatch.org
DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW +2.3 feet
in 2106
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day nor’easter 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving nor’easter 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin nor’easters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin nor’easters (#2) 3.12 feet
Built 1902
Built 1904
Parad
ise Cr
e ek ca
1850
1933‘06
Oct Hurricane
nor’easter
- storm
in 2106
of record
Oct ’06 nor’easter in 1906
Veterans’ Day 2009 Noreaster
~ 5 feet
www.wetlandswatch.org
DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet
September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet
+ 2.3 ft.
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day nor’easter 4.99 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 4.36 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving nor’easter 3.96 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet
January 28. 1998 Twin nor’easters (#1) 3.26 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin nor’easters (#2) 3.12 feet
Examples of Climate Change
Challenges
www.wetlandswatch.org
What Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for Storm
Surge?
4+ feet of surge = category 1 hurricane
What Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for Storm
Surge?
2.3 feet of Relative Sea Level Rise
4+ feet of surge = category 1 hurricane
What Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for Storm
Surge?
Category 2 hurricane surge (6-8 feet)
2110 Category 1 Surge Flooding
Category 1 hurricane in 2010
East Ocean View
Norfolk Redevelopment
Terminals
St. Patrick’s
ODU
N S Piers
Light Rail
Norfolk
General
Hospital
www.wetlandswatch.org
Kristen Lentz – Norfolk Director of Utilities
Shoreline Tax Base/Housing Values at Risk
LEGEND
Purple
Blue
VALUE
Green
Yellow
Red
Kristen Lentz – Norfolk Director of Utilities
Upper Tide Line
(+1.6ft)
Chesapeake Bay
Preservation Act
Covers the
Zones we need
to worry about
with sea level
rise
ChesShoreline
Tidal Bay Act
Buffer
in 2100
Light-rail crews to rebuild Fort Norfolk intersection
The Virginian Pilot
May 26, 2010
"Flooding occurs in Hampton Roads," Holden said.
"The area is formerly known as Tidewater for a reason."
He said that once light-rail service begins a year from
now, there could be times when high water shutters the
system.
He said building an elevated light-rail line was cost-
prohibitive.
NASA/
USAF
NN
Shipyard
The information is preliminary
and has not been verified.
It is provided only for the
purpose of this presentation.
Ft. Monroe
Redevelopment
www.wetlandswatch.org
Hampton’s Bayside and location of
proposed development
Rd.
Beach
Chesapeake Bay
www.wetlandswatch.org
Shoreline Recession in Grandview/Hampton
www.wetlandswatch.org
Private Insurance Companies “Blue Lining” Tidewater,VA
Allstate stopped writing new policies in 19
coastal communities:
Accomack, Gloucester, Isle of Wight, King and Queen,
Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Northumberland, Northampton,
Southampton, Surrey, Sussex, York counties and Chesapeake,
Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Virginia Beach
Nationwide withdrawing from any new coastal
coverage
State Farm will not write new policies within
one mile of shoreline
Farmer’s no longer doing business within two
miles of ocean coast or one mile of tidal Bay
USAA – withdrawing new coverage
www.wetlandswatch.org
FEMA Post Hazard Mitigation – Hurricane Isabel
$4.5 million program in Norfolk
www.wetlandswatch.org
House fine. Roads, storm water systems, etc.????
Raise one block
1 8”
~$1.23 million
www.wetlandswatch.org
Front-Line City in Virginia Tackles Rise in Sea
www.wetlandswatch.org
INFILL LOT IN NORFOLK- PERMITS APPROVED 2009 – in small tidal
event on 2-7-10 – shows bad judgement
ONLY ACCESS TO INFILL LOT IN NORFOLK- during minor tidal event on
2-7-10
ACCESS TO NORFOLK APARTMENTS – APPROVED/BUILT 2009 – during
minor tidal event 2-07-10 – road must be elevated = $$??
Impact of Sea level Rise on Beaches
Impact of Sea Level Rise on Virginia Beach
300 FEET
Impact of Sea Level Rise on Virginia Beach
2 foot sea level rise = loss of
200+ feet of beach
2100 Shoreline
(max)
Virginia Beach – Summer 2007
Virginia Beach – Summer 2107
Climate Change Impacts Can be Seen Now in
Virginia
New Point Comfort Lighthouse
Mathews, VA
From 1885 to now – shoreline has
moved ½ mile
www.wetlandswatch.org
Coastline on the Move – who’s responsible for safety and
access to this house in 5-10 years?
ROAD
www.wetlandswatch.org
Sea-level rise on VA’s Eastern Shore
Tangier
Island
NWF Study on
global sea level rise = +27.2 inches Ches Bay
Lower Peninsula
Now
National Wildlife Federation –Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the
Chesapeake Bay Region
Lower Peninsula
+.39
meters
National Wildlife Federation –Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the
Chesapeake Bay Region
Lower Peninsula
+.69
meters
National Wildlife Federation –Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the
Chesapeake Bay Region
Lower Peninsula
+ 1 meter
National Wildlife Federation –Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the
Chesapeake Bay Region
Superfund/Hazardous Waste sites near sea
level in Hampton Roads need re-evaluation
Awareness and Urgency is
Growing
Awareness is Growing
We will see the ocean creep up into backyards
and witness increased flooding during
rainstorms and at high tide. Only those with no
concern for the future can afford to ignore this
development.
State of the Region – Hampton Roads 2009
www.wetlandswatch.org
Federal Response Has Started
www.wetlandswatch.org
Planning Tools
www.wetlandswatch.org
HRPDC 3-year coastal
zone study on climate
change
(one of three in state – 2009-
2011)
www.wetlandswatch.org
2010 Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy
(CEDS)
“Vision Hampton Roads”
IV. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
Threats
• Flat/Slow Port Growth Forecast
• Decrease in DoD Spending
• Continued Deterioration of Infrastructure, Traffic
• Competition from Other States for Military Forces Based in the Region
• Rising Sea Levels and other Potential Impacts of Climate Change
• Lack of Ultra Broadband Infrastructure (High-Speed Internet
Telecommunications)
• Lack of Regional Water Strategy www.wetlandswatch.org
Federally-Mandated Planning Opportunities
US DOT FEMA
www.wetlandswatch.org
ClimateChange
Climate change poses a serious and growing threat to Virginia’s roads, railways,
ports, utility systems, and other critical infrastructure. Higher temperatures,
rising sea levels, increased potential of flooding, more buckled pavements due to
heat, and lower employee productivity due to increased illness are some of the
potential implications of climate change. Elevated atmospheric temperatures
will lead to rising sea levels that will cause storm surges, coastal flooding, and
erosion more severe than occurs today. Temperature rise and the threat of more
frequent and intense heat waves can also seriously impair critical infrastructure
such as roads and bridges as they will be more prone to failure due to extreme
heat expansion and contraction. (p18)
www.wetlandswatch.org
Hazard Mitigation Plans
are Starting to Deal with
Sea Level Rise
Floodplain Management Plans
are Starting to Include Climate
Change and Sea Level Rise
Virginian Pilot August 26th, 2010
www.wetlandswatch.org
Comprehensive Land Use Planning
• Done in every locality every five years
• Takes a long-range view of locality’s development
• Public involvement guaranteed
• Can lead to changes in zoning, etc.
Comprehensive Plans Underway or Scheduled Soon
Virginia Beach – 2010
Chesapeake – 2010-11
Norfolk – 2011
Hampton – 2010-11
www.wetlandswatch.org
Comp Plans Have Started to
Look at Climate Change
“1-g Collaborate with local,
regional, and state agencies
in planning for climate
change.
Planning for climate change
can help county decision
makers address the problem
of sea level rise, and assess
potential economic
opportunities in responding
to changing business and
industrial markets. Such
efforts should be done in
conjunction with other
government entities,
including Northampton
County, A-NPDC, and the
Virginia state government.”
www.wetlandswatch.org
Recent Comprehensive Plans Getting Better
Next Steps?
www.wetlandswatch.org
Mapping – Modeling - Impact Assessments
Economic Analysis – “What is the Cost of Doing
Nothing?”
Begin to Develop Shoreline Solutions
Develop a Local Government “Toolkit” and start
using it
www.wetlandswatch.org
High Resolution Digital
Maps are on the way…
15 cm vertical (9”
accuracy)
www.wetlandswatch.org
Total Economic Impact of
Selected Areas within the Anthropogenic Ecological
Middle Peninsula Short term Long term
$126,230,366.20 $185,765,366.80 $4,239,764.75 – $63,685,680.69
Total Short term Costs of Selected Total Long term Costs of
Areas in the Middle Peninsula Selected Areas in the Middle
Peninsula
$157,470,131.60 – $187,005,132.10 –
$211,916,046.90 $249,451,074.50
MPPDC – Lewie Lawrence
Living Shorelines and Sea Level Rise
Breakwater Elevation
Migr
at ion
Sea Level Rise
Burke Environmental Associates
Local Government Adaptation Toolkit
Nearly Finished!
+ =
www.wetlandswatch.org
Summary…..
Sea Level Rise is being experienced today in Virginia – in
tidewater we see it as higher storm surges
Localities must plan for sea level rise using land use, emergency
management, economic, and natural resources planning tools –
some Virginia localities have started
Virginia localities are starting work on sea level rise adaptation.
Citizens need to get involved in long range plans in their
communities
www.wetlandswatch.org
Climate Change Work Pays off in the Present
STORM SUR
GE
PROTECTIO
N
Source of Sea Level Rise is of Little Importance to
Hampton Roads
www.wetlandswatch.org
www.wetlandswatch.org
LET’S TALK !
