THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 1
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO
LAW ENFORCEMENT
THREAT ANALYSIS REPORT
BILLY CHAMBERS
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNIVERSITY
Author Note
This paper was prepared for HLS 401, Intelligence Process, taught by Kelli-
Frakes, Ph.D.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 2
The Sinaloa Cartel Threat to Law Enforcement
Threat Analysis Report
A complete and detailed analysis was completed on the Sinaloa Cartel. The
Sinaloa Cartel was determined to be a primary threat to the United States of
America and to the state of Kentucky. The cartel is primarily known for their drug
trafficking and deadly violence that comes along with it. Intelligence has placed
the Sinaloa Cartel in the State of Kentucky. The cartel’s presence has been
confirmed in Louisville and Lexington and is suspected throughout the state.
The Sinaloa Cartel is an international organization based out of Mexico and is
unlike other drug trafficking organizations. This cartel uses a business like
foundation with an estimated annual income in the billions. The cartel is known to
bribe government, law enforcement, and any other personnel that may be required
in order for them to accomplish their mission. When bribing is unsuccessful the
cartel is known to kidnapping and murdering the families of those personnel.
Intelligence has shown that the cartel has already infiltrated one local law
enforcement agency in the state. While that particular sheriff’s deputy was
arrested, we cannot rule out that they haven’t already penetrated other law
enforcement agencies in the state. This cartel poses an immediate danger to not
only law enforcement officials, but to also the citizens of this state.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 3
INTRODUCTION
The Threat Analysis Report was completed on the Sinaloa Cartel. This particular
cartel was selected for the analysis reported due to their increasing presence not
only in the United States of America, but also in the State of Kentucky. The
increase presence of the cartel throughout this country has noted an increase in
violent crimes. The City of Chicago, which is only 396 miles away via Interstate
65, has reported a remarkable increase of violence in the previous year that is
linked to this cartel.
The Sinaloa Cartel has been reported and verified to be in the State of Kentucky
by multiple intelligence sources. A few of the major cities in the state include
Louisville and Lexington. These two cities are known to host the cartel, but these
cities are not expected to be the only two locations where they have a presence.
This cartel possesses an immediate threat to the State of Kentucky, due to their
horrific violent crimes.
What Potential threat does the Sinaloa Cartel pose to law enforcement agencies?
The cartel poses an immediate threat to not only law enforcement official but to
their families also. The cartel has already infiltrated one local law enforcement
agency in the state, and more are expected. More detailed information about this
threat will be provided in the target preference section of this report.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 4
THREAT PROFILE
This threat profile was completed on the Sinaloa Cartel. The Sinaloa Cartel
origins were formed in the State of Sinaloa. The Sinaloa is located between the
Pacific Ocean and the Sierra Madre mountains in northwest Mexico. The United
States border is only a two-day drive from Sinaloa. The State of Sinaloa is
approximately 22,438 square miles with a population of 2,608,442 in 2005. The
state capital is Culiacan, which had a population of 793,730. Culiacan is home to
the most infamous narcotraffickers who reside in luxury homes in the hills of the
capital city.
For decades, many have referred to Sinaloa as Mexico’s breadbasket. Sinaloa is
known for its fertile fields, which have produced huge crops or soybeans and
sesame seeds. Unfortunately, those same fields lay home to vast amounts of
marijuana and heroin. Nearly all the trafficking organizations in Mexico have
origins in Sinaloa.
In the 1960s and 1970, a small group of farming families in the rural parts of
Sinaloa moved from contraband trades to drugs. The main drug the families were
involved with at the time was marijuana. Out of the families, Pedro Aviles was one
of the first to traffic bulk loads of marijuana. Pedro Aviles was a doctor from
Sinaloa in the 1960s and considered as the first generation of drug traffickers. He
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 5
pioneered the use of aircrafts to smuggle drugs into the United States. Aviles was
killed in a shootout with federal police in 1978.
Prior to his death, Pedro Aviles brought his friends son into the drug trafficking
business. His friend’s son was none other than Joaquin El Chapo Loera also known
as El Chapo. Columbia’s drug traffickers were finding it more difficult than ever
to bring cocaine into the United States through South Florida. In the late 1970s, the
families branched into moving cocaine for Columbian and Central American
traffickers. This established the patterns we see today in regards to the movement
of bulk shipments of cocaine via aircraft and boats to Central America and Mexico.
The bulk shipments then move via land routes from Mexico into the United States.
The Sinaloa Cartel operates in a manner that resembles Columbia cartels. The
cartel is primarily consisting of family members but maintains its association with
other cartels when they need to advance their expansion goals. The Sinaloa Cartel
is considered a Drug Trafficking Organization. Some opinions have called the
cartels a terrorist organization or a type of narcoterrorism due to the intensity of the
violence. The Mexican authorities declare that these groups are not terrorists and
that if they were, America citizens would be charged with supporting the group
since they are technically funding the cartels by buying narcotics supplied by them.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 6
The Sinaloa Cartel’s central bond is blood seeing how many of its members are
related by blood or marriage. The family tends to act more like a federation than an
organization of family members. The cartel is not a hierarchical structure. In 2008,
the core of the cartel, the BLO, departed paths. This did not slow down the Sinaloa
Cartel seeing how since the split they have created new alliances with former
enemies. The cartel’s operations in foreign countries and even Mexico are often
outsourced. The organization has successfully penetrated government and security
forces wherever they may operate. Due to the cartels philosophy they often opt for
the bribe over bullet and alliances over fighting which has proven successful for
them. The cartel does have a history of violence and is not above organizing its
forces to overrun areas it wants to control by force. The cartel continues to face
challenges from remnants of several other drug trafficking organizations. The
greatest threat may come from inside the organization now that El Chapo is once
again in custody.
The most recent and notable leader of the Sinaloa Cartel was Joaquin El Chapo
Loera also known as El Chapo. El Chapo’s career in drug trafficking began back
in the 1960s. From 1989 to 2008, the Sinaloa Cartel top leaders consisted of
Hector Palma Salazar, Jesus “The King” Zambada, El Chapo, El Mayo, and El
Azul. Hector Palma Salazar is currently scheduled to be released on July 16,2016.
In 2008, El Chapo became the most visible head of the organization. In February
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 7
2014 , El Chapo was captured leaving the hands of the organization in the hands of
El Azul and El Mayo. El Azul was a former police detective. He reportedly died in
June 2014 but there are rumors that he is still alive and well. This led to El Mayo
as the leader of the cartel. Some analysts believe that El Mayo might be easing into
the shadows or even retiring. After El Chapo’s arrest in 2014, some considered El
Mayo to have claimed his partners mantle as the world’s biggest drug trafficker. In
July 2015 it was unclear if El Chapo rejoined his partner atop the Sinaloa Cartel
after his dramatic escape from prison. It is uncertain how El Chapo’s return to the
cartel would affect the leadership since El Mayo was a major figure and even equal
to El Chapo. El Mayo has spent over 40 years in the drug trafficking business
without ever seeing the inside of a jail cell. El Chapo was recaptured in January
2016.
The Sinaloa Cartel primary funding is through its drug trafficking. The cartel
greatly increased their profits when they set up their own distribution networks in
the United States. The Sinaloa Cartel could buy a kilo of cocaine in Columbia or
Peru for around $2,000. The cocaine would then accrue value as it made its way to
the market. In Mexico, a kilo could be worth more than $10,000. Once in the
United States that kilo could sell for $30,000. Then break it down into grams for
distribution and that same kilo would sell for around $100,000. That is more profit
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 8
then they could make off gold in weight. In 2012 HSBC admitted in court that it
allowed drug cartels to launder at least $881 million dollars.
The Sinaloa Cartel support has come from other cartels and government officials.
The cartel has a well-known reputation of bribing officials in order to continue
their drug trafficking organization. Due to the cartel using more professional
business operations instead of violence, they were able to continue their drug
trafficking without any interference from Mexico’s security forces. The Sinaloa
Cartel flew below the radar as other drug trafficking organization were targeted by
the government for their high profile violence. The cartel continues to refine its
diplomatic approach to help penetrate the local population and elected officials
within the Mexican government.
The Sinaloa Cartel operates in approximately fifty countries worldwide and is
continually seeking to multiply its global reach. The United States continue to be a
major market for the cartel. The cartel established smuggling routes from Mexico
to United States specifically Phoenix. Once in the US the cartel took over the areas
if operations where their allies were previously. This strategy gave the cartel a
strong hold on in the United States. It has been reported that the Sinaloa Cartel
supplies approximately 80% of the drugs in Chicago. The cartel has formed
strategic alliances with other aligned cartels and established powerful government
ties with hopes of securing and expanding the drug trade. The cartel also
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 9
established relations with drug traffickers in Guatemala, Honduras, Andean,
Europe and Africa. The Sinaloa Cartel has a logistical network that is so
sophisticated that it can outperform Amazon or U.P.S. El Chapo also had an entire
fleet of jets at his disposable.
The Sinaloa Cartel is known to use radios for communication. In 2011, the
Mexican Army located and seized at least 167 antennas, 155 repeaters, 166 power
courses, 71 pieces of computer equipment and 1,446 radios. The cartel had access
to more and better communication equipment than some municipalities in the
United States.
The Sinaloa Cartel established numerous training sites for its operatives
throughout the State of Sinaloa in Mexico. Seasoned members and new recruits
were trained to use rifles, machineguns, mortars, and grenade launchers. The cartel
was able to gain access to these weapons and more by buildings its relationships
with top government officials. The relationships provided them with secure
trafficking operations and routes along with safe distribution.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 10
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
One of the Sinaloa Cartel’s top goals was expansion, which has been very
successful. The cartel favored a philosophy of business and the use of bribes over
violent brutality. Multiple reported argue that the business ethics of the Sinaloa
Cartel has made them one of the least violent cartels. That does not make them
weak and they are considered one the most powerful cartels. It has been reported
that the cartel has built an image of business professionalism vowing not to harm
the Mexican population. With that said the cartel still has a violent past and should
be considered dangerous. The Sinaloa Cartel’s philosophy has aided their evasion
from Mexico’s security forces leading to expansions in key territories.
Under the leadership of El Chapo, the Sinaloa Cartel was able to build an
extensive drug trafficking enterprise. This cartel remains one of the most dominant
drug trafficking organizations. The cartel is an adaptive and resilient drug
trafficking network. Through their formed strategic alliances with other cartels and
power government ties continues to expand aboard allowing access to key drug
markets. As mentioned earlier their achievements can be credited back to their
operational philosophy.
Recent reports have shown that the cartel is no longer outsourcing it’s retailing to
local dealers, and is taking an even more active role in selling its products.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 11
TARGET PREFERENCES
The Sinaloa Cartel will use its resources at any means necessary to reach its goals
and objectives. In order to reach their goals, several targets have been identified
through an analysis method. Detailed information on the analysis method used is
located in Appendix A.
One of the targets of the Sinaloa Cartel is Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTO).
A rival DTO can hinder the cartels goal of expansion by increasing competition. A
recent report revealed that the DTO, Los Zetas, and the Sinaloa Cartel have
departed ways from their partnership. The Los Zetas is known for the horrific
violence they impose on others. The Los Zetas has a strong footprint in the
Louisville region, which is where their operations are for the State of Kentucky.
Now that the two organizations are rivals, an increase of violence is expected to
occur in the region. Blood shed is expected between the two, which if occurred in
public areas, will place the innocent by-standers in harm’s way.
Some street level drug dealers have become the targets for the cartel. As
mentioned earlier, The City of Chicago has reported that the Sinaloa Cartel has
placed its own personnel on the street level to oversee local operations. This has
resulted in an increase crime between local gangs/dealers and the cartel.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 12
Local, State, and Federal law enforcement officials are a primary threat for the
Sinaloa Cartel. Any encounters between law enforcement and the cartel may result
in a violent altercation. The cartel members are known to keep in their possession
military style weapons including but not limited to assault rifles and grenades. The
threat to law enforcement officials continues beyond on-duty. The cartel may seek
other means to secure law enforcement officials such as bribing. The cartel has
many means to bribe law enforcement officials. One is by money, which the cartel
has an unlimited source of. This was the case in Bullitt County, KY, where a
sheriff’s deputy was working with the cartel. If the cartel is unsuccessful with
bribing with money, they resort to other dire means. The cartel has a history of
kidnapping. The threat if the cartel kidnapping a law enforcement or government
official’s family member, in order to get what they want, is very high. It is
important to note that once the kidnapped victim is located, they were found
deceased.
Personnel with expertise skills that are required by the cartel, in order to complete
a mission, have a risk of being kidnapped. The cartel has a history of kidnapping
personnel in order to use them and their skills for a specific mission that will
benefit the cartel. Once the mission is completed that required the victims’ unique
skills, they have been located and were deceased.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 13
MOST LIKELY TARGETS
The Sinaloa Cartel will use its resources at any means necessary to reach its goals
and objectives. In order to reach their goals, several targets have been identified
through an analysis method. Detailed information on the analytic method used is
located in Appendix B.
While all of the above targets are highly probable, the primary threat currently in
the State of Kentucky is the DTO, Los Zetas. The Los Zetas and the Sinaloa Cartel
are still experiencing a falling out which has resulted in a war over territory. Both
organizations have resources that expand international.
One of the reasons this target was designated as a “high priority” in the state is
due to the violence that both organizations have shown. The extent of deadly
violence that is expected to become of this war will result is casualties.
Unfortunately, we believe some of those casualties will include innocent civilians.
These organizations show no mercy to the innocent when it comes to their
mission. The weapons that both of these organizations have access to cause an
imminent danger to both law enforcement and citizens. It is suggested that all law
enforcement officials be notified of this on-going war between the Los Zetas and
Sinaloa Cartel in order to protect the safety of the public. There is currently no
timeline available as to when or if this war will be resolved.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 14
INDICATORS
The Sinaloa Cartel has access to, what seems like, unlimited financial capabilities
which results in with endless possibilities that this cartel is capable of. Recently,
specifically in Chicago, it has been witnessed by law enforcement that the Sinaloa
Cartel are sending their own personnel from Mexico to United States to oversee the
street-level operations. This is due to the cartel taking a more active role on the
street-level drug disruptions and to remove the middle-man. Law enforcement
agencies believe this has been put in place by the cartel in order to control the street-
level dealers from taking any profits that belong to the cartel. It is also important to
point out that the Sinaloa Cartel and Los Zetas are no longer in a partnership. This
has a high possibility for Kentucky area law enforcement agencies to witness an
increase of violent crimes between the two organizations. While civilians are not the
intended target, I think it is important to note that civilian causalities will occur due
to the war between these two organizations.
The Sinaloa Cartel usually pays other organizations to commit their violence for
them. It is important to remember that this is not always the case and the Sinaloa
Cartel has a wide variety of military weapons at their disposable. Some of the
weapons that have previously been found in the cartel’s presence include AK-47s,
M-60s, German MG43s, grenades, and Soviet-made RPG7s. Further details on the
indicators is located in Appendix C.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 15
CONCLUSION
The Sinaloa Cartel is a gangrenous and deadly organization. The battle against them
will not be easy due to their unlimited finances. The cartel is known for not only
their violence but more so their business like operations. They have the ability to
bribe law enforcement and government officials. If the intended recruit refuses the
money, violence is used. It is not a question if the Sinaloa Cartel is in Kentucky.
They are here and are making their presence known. The latest intel we have
received is reporting that the cartel is replacing the street level “middle man” with
their own personnel. This is currently the situation in Chicago, which has caused a
drastic increase in violence.
The State of Kentucky is in a time where we must explore all options in order to
suppress the violence and illegal activities that the Sinaloa Cartel brings to our state.
I suggest that we communicate with all levels of law enforcement in order to obtain
the necessary resources that are required to prosecute this organization.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 16
REFERENCES
SINALOA- The History Channel (http://www.history.com/topics/mexico/sinaloa).
The Place Mexico’s Drug Kingpins Call Home by Jake Bergman
(http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/business/place.html).
Biografia de Pedro Aviles Perez Capo Mexicano
(http://www.taringa.net/post/apuntes-y-monografias/9874302/Biografia-de-Pedro-
Aviles-Perez-Capo-Mexicano.html).
Sinaloa Cartel – TRAC (http://www.trackingterrorism.org/group/sinaloa-cartel).
The Mexican Cartels: Not just Criminals but Terrorists - Global Security Studies,
Winter 2012, Volume 3, Issue 1
(http://globalsecuritystudies.com/ODonnell%20Mexican%20Cartels.pdf).
Sinaloa Cartel Leader ‘El Azul’ Dead? ‘El Mayo’ Now In Control? – InSight
Crime (http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/sinaloa-cartel-leader-el-azul-
dead-leaving-el-mayo-in-control).
The Sinaloa Cartel: Drug Trafficking & Extensive Global Influence – HubPages
(http://hubpages.com/politics/The-Sinaloa-Cartel-Drug-Trafficking-Extensive-
Global-Influence).
Cocaine Incorporated By Patrick Radden Keefe – The New York Times
(http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/magazine/how-a-mexican-drug-cartel-
makes-its-billions.html?_r=0).
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 17
How to Halt the Terrorist Money Train By Robert Mazur – The New York Times
(http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/opinion/how-bankers-help-drug-traffickers-
and-terrorists.html).
CONFIRMED: The DEA Struck A Deal With Mexico's Most Notorious Drug
Cartel By Michael B Kelley – Business Insider
(http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-government-and-the-sinaloa-cartel-2014-
1).
Major trafficking suspect arrested By Ken Ellingwood – Los Angeles Times
(http://articles.latimes.com/2008/oct/23/world/fg-mexarrest23).
3 Mexican cartel kingpins to be released in the next 5 years By Mariah Medina –
My San Antonio (http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Cartel-
kingpins-to-be-released-in-the-next-5-years-6373584.php).
El Mayo – InSight Crime (http://www.insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-
news/ismael-zambada-garcia-el-mayo).
Juan Jose Esparragoza Moreno, alias "El Azul" – Insight Crime
(http://www.insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-news/juan-jose-
esparragoza-moreno-el-azul).
El Chapo – InSight Crime (http://www.insightcrime.org/mexico-organized-crime-
news/el-chapo).
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 18
Mexico's cartels communicate with high-end radios By Michael Weissenstein – SF
Gate (http://www.sfgate.com/world/article/Mexico-s-cartels-communicate-with-
high-end-radios-2426244.php).
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 19
APPENDIX A
A Brainstorming Analysis was completed on the Sinaloa Cartel in order to provide
a threat profile. Brainstorming Analysis produces a wider range of ideas than what
a group might generate. The Brainstorming Analysis was conducted in two phases.
First, a divergent thinking phase was used to create a wide range of ideas on the
topic. Then for the second phase a convergent thinking phase for a deeper
investigation of the ideas generated in phase one.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 20
APPENDIX B
A matrix analysis approach was used once the most probable targets were
identified. The particular matrix used for this report was the Analysis of Competing
Hypotheses (ACH).
ACH is an eight-step procedure grounded in basic insights from cognitive
psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. It is a surprisingly
effective, proven process that helps analysts avoid common analytic pitfalls.
Because of its thoroughness, it is particularly appropriate for controversial issues
when analysts want to leave an audit trail to show what they considered and how
they arrived at their judgment.
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 21
APPENDIX C
Intelligence Collection Plan Period Covered: From__2016_ to_On-going___
Priority Intelligence Indicators Location of Agencies/Platforms
Requirements (PIR) (specifics of PIR Collection Effort to be Employed for
and Information or IR to focus (attached Collection Effort Remarks
Requirements (IR) Collection additional sheets
Effort) with details)
Los Zetas Los Zetas and Intelligence Local/ State/ The termination
members Sinaloa Cartel gathering of Federal law between the
have known Los enforcement Sinaloa Cartel
terminated Zetas locations. agencies. The law and Los Zetas
their (It is believed enforcement will bring
partnership. that Sinaloa officers directly deadly
Cartel members involved will be violence.
will commit members of Gathering
violent crimes narcotic units. All intelligence on
against the Los information the Los Zeta
Zetas gathered shall be members will
locations.) lead us to the
THE SINALOA CARTEL’S THREAT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT 22
passed along to location of
those members. Sinaloa Cartel.
