FE 445 – Investment Analysis and Portfolio
Management
Fall 2020
Farzad Saidi
Boston University | Questrom School of Business
Lecture 2: Asset/security classes
and investment companies
Real vs. financial assets
     • Real assets
          • Used to produce goods and services: land, buildings, equipment, and
            knowledge
     • Financial assets
          • Claims on real assets or claims on asset income
     • Ultimate owners of all real assets:
          • Households, non-profits, government, financial institutions
     • Net wealth of an economy: aggregate all balance sheets ⇒ only real
       assets remain
     • All financial assets are offset by financial liabilities
                                                                                  1
Balance sheet U.S. households 2014
      Assets                                              Liabilities and Net Worth
                                    $ billion   % total                               $ billion   % total
      Real assets
      Real estate                    22,820     23.88%    Mortgages                     9,551     10.00%
      Consumer durables               5,041      5.28%    Consumer credit               3,104      3.25%
      Other                             468      0.49%    Bank and other loans            493      0.52%
      Total real assets              28,330     29.65%    Security credit                 352      0.37%
                                                          Other                           286      0.30%
      Financial assets                                    Total liabilities            13,786     14.43%
      Deposits                        9,783     10.24%
      Life insurance reserves         1,257      1.32%
      Pension reserves               19,766     20.69%
      Corporate equity               13,502     14.13%
      Equity in noncorp. Business     8,869      9.28%
      Mutual fund shares              7,059      7.39%
      Debt securities                 5,263      5.51%
      Other                           1,720      1.80%
      Total financial assets         67,219     70.35%    Net worth                    81,763     85.57%
      Total                          95,549     100.00%                                95,549     100.00%
                                                           Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds
                                                                                                            2
Roles of financial markets
     • Informational role and capital allocation
          • Do prices reflect value? (more later)
          • Can markets put money to best use?
     • Consumption timing
          • People tend to smooth consumption over time
          • Save for unexpected expenses: unemployment, medical treatment
          • Most common savings motive: life cycle
               • Borrow when young
               • Invest in working age (mid-life)
               • Draw down savings when old and retired
     • Allocation of risk
          • Investors can choose a desired risk level and risk type
     • Separation of ownership and management
          • Think about large firms
                                                                            3
Classes of financial securities
     • Debt (fixed-income securities): pay a specified cash flow
       (coupons, principal) over a specific period
         • Money market instruments
              • Cash-like instruments: very low risk
         • Bonds (capital market): safe unless firm goes bankrupt
              • Less risky
     • Equity: pay an unspecified cash flow (dividends)
         • Common stock: ownership stake, residual cash flow after paying
           back debt
              • More risky
     • Derivatives:
         • Contract whose value is derived from some other assets
                                                                            4
Money market instruments
    • A subsector of the debt market
    • Very low risk and normally very liquid
        • Easy to convert back into cash (e.g., deposits)
        • Easy to sell on the market (marketable)
    • Very short-term (maturity less than 1 year)
    • Types:
        • Treasury bills (T-bills): proxy for risk-free security
        • Certificates of deposit (CD): a bank time deposit
        • Repos and reverses: interest rate charged for short-term
          borrowing/lending with collateral
        • LIBOR: average interest rate the banks charge one another for short
          term uncollateralized borrowing/lending
        • Federal funds rate: rate for borrowing/lending balances kept at the
          Federal Reserve
        • Commercial paper (CP)
                                                                                5
Repo markets
    • We often talk about buying and shorting securities
         • In fixed income markets, this is accomplished via the repo market
    • A repurchase agreement (repo) is an agreement to sell some
      securities to another party and buy them back at a fixed date and
      for a fixed amount
         • The price at which the security is bought back is greater than the
           selling price and the difference implies an interest called repo rate
    • A reverse repo is the opposite transaction, i.e., the purchase of the
      security for cash with the agreement to sell it back to the original
      owner at a predetermined price, determined, once again, by the repo
      rate
    • Put simply, a repo transaction is a collateralized loan
                                                                                   6
A repo transaction
     • At time t, a trader wants to take a long position until time T
     • Pt is the (invoice) price of the bond
     • Haircut (HC ): difference between Pt and amount trader can borrow
               time t
                           buy bond at Pt                deliver bond
             MARKET                         TRADER                        REPO DEALER
                               pay Pt                   get Pt −haircut
         time T = t + n days
                          sell bond at PT                 get the bond
             MARKET                         TRADER                      REPO DEALER
                               get PT                                           n
                                             pay (Pt −haircut) × (1+repo rate× 360 )
                                                                                        7
Commercial paper
    • Issued by large, creditworthy corporations
    • Short maturity: less than 1 or 2 months
    • Quite liquid
    • Default risk low: unsecured loan
        • Unlikely to default within a few months
    • Asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP, more later)
        •   Recent innovation: issued by financial firms
        •   Backed by a loan or security
        •   Invest in other assets, subprime mortgages, used as collateral
        •   Mid-2007: collapsed when subprime collateral values fell
                                                                             8
Commercial-paper breakdown
                                                           V.V. Acharya et al. / J. Finan. Intermediation 30 (2017) 1–34                               3
                        Fig. 1. Adapted from Acharya et al. (2013). The red line is the level of the S&P 500 at close; the blue line is the total amount
                        of ABCP outstanding in billions USD; the green line indicates August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas suspended withdrawals from
                        3 subprime mortgage backed funds; the purple line indicates December 12, 2007, when the Federal Reserve announced the
                        TAF to alleviate pressure in short-term funding markets. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the
                        reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
    • The red line is the level of the S&P 500 at close
               freeze and relative to non-USD loans, foreign banks with ABCP exposure charged higher spreads on
    • The bluesyndicated
                  line loans is the        total
                                   denominated           amount
                                                 in US dollars             offollowing
                                                               in the period     ABCP   the ABCPoutstanding
                                                                                                 freeze of August 2007
               through mid-December 2007. This finding is particularly striking because this period is one of relative
                                                                                                                         in $bn
               calm for large corporations in the United States, whose syndicated loans we study, as evinced by
    • The greenthe    line indicates August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas
                    remarkably
               Fig. 1).
                                 stable behavior  of the S&P500  index between   August  9 and mid-December    2007 (See
      suspended       withdrawals                   from in3USDsubprime                    mortgage-backed
                   Formally, we design a difference-in-differences test to study the terms (spread, maturity and
               amount)    of syndicated loans denominated              and in euros or pounds   (we will refer to these     funds
               loans as “euro” loans for simplicity). We exploit several types of differences-in-differences, the first
    • The purple        line indicates December 12, 2007, when the Federal
               difference being between USD- and euro- loans, the second between foreign banks and US banks,
               and the third difference being between after and before August of 2007 (in order to exploit within-
               firm variation). Our difference-in-differences approach helps control for variation in characteristics
      Reserve across
               announcedbanks, differences the
                                           in banksTerm           Auction
                                                      between before                Facility
                                                                      and after the shock,            (TAF)
                                                                                            and between  USD and non-
               USD-denominated syndicated loans for a given bank (allowing us to hold constant the bank solvency
                                                                                                                      to alleviate
               shock, if any). At the same time, the approach allows us to exploit the variation among banks due to
      pressure funding
                in short-term                    funding
                         shocks (ABCP-exposed versus     not exposedmarkets
                                                                     banks) and due to differential access to funding in
                        the USD markets (foreign versus US banks).
                           Our difference-in-differences test reveals that the contractual feature of bank credit that is affected
                        is mainly the spread (rather than maturity or amount).7 Besides documenting an important dollar                                     9
                        funding risk for foreign banks engaged in maturity transformation in the United States, our results
                        suggest that the transmission channel of the ABCP freeze when studied just for US banks may under-
Other key interest rates
   Federal funds rate:
     • Banks with excess Fed funds lend to those with a shortage
     • Lending rate in this market is called Federal funds rate
   LIBOR (London interbank offer rate):
     • Rate at which large banks in London can borrow from one another,
       i.e., interbank loans
     • Is available in 5 currencies: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF at
       seven different maturities
     • World’s most widely used reference rate in the money market
                                                                          10
Which interest rate?
     • To price financial contracts, we need a risk-free rate
     • For financial institutions, the LIBOR or swap yield curve provides
       the appropriate rate
     • Treasury rates are too low – banks cannot finance themselves at this
       rate
     • The overnight indexed swap (OIS) is a swap where a fixed rate is
       exchanged for the geometric average of overnight rates during the
       period, where the overnight rates are the rates at which banks
       borrow/lend excess reserves (Fed funds rate in the US)
     • The OIS allows overnight borrowing/lending to be swapped for a
       fixed rate
          • The LIBOR-OIS spread is an indicator for stresses in the financial
            sector
                                                                                 11
TED Spread = 3m LIBOR - 3m T-Bill
                                  TED	Spread
                    3.5
                    3.0
                    2.5
                    2.0
          Percent
                    1.5
                    1.0
                    0.5
                    0.0
                                    1990              1995             2000              2005        2010   2015
              Shaded	areas	indicate	U.S.	recessions      Source:	Federal	Reserve	Bank	of	St.	Louis          myf.red/g/mbKw
                                                                                                                             12
Investment companies
    • Investment companies: financial intermediaries that collect funds
      from individual investors and invest those funds in a potentially wide
      range of securities or other assets
    • Functions:
        •   Diversification
        •   Professional management
        •   Lower research costs (shared with others)
        •   Portfolio managed according to certain objectives
        •   Professionals to find undervalued securities
    • Reduced transaction costs (e.g., commissions)
        • Due to size of fund
    • Administration & record keeping
                                                                               13
Net Asset Value
    • Investors buy shares in investment companies.
    • Net Asset Value (NAV): the value of each share
                           Market value of asets − Liabilities
                   NAV =
                                 Shares outstanding
    • For NAV values see: http://finance.yahoo.com/funds
                                                                 14
Example: NAV calculation
    • Consider a mutual fund that manages a portfolio of securities worth
      $120m
    • Suppose the fund owes $4m to its investment advisors and owes
      another $1m for rent, wages due, and miscellaneous expenses
    • The fund has 5 million shares
    • What is its net asset value?
                                                                            15
Example: NAV calculation
    • Consider a mutual fund that manages a portfolio of securities worth
      $120m
    • Suppose the fund owes $4m to its investment advisors and owes
      another $1m for rent, wages due, and miscellaneous expenses
    • The fund has 5 million shares
    • What is its net asset value?
                           $120m − $5m
                  NAV =                = $23 per share
                             5m shares
                                                                            15
Managed investment companies
  Management company manages the portfolio for an annual fee that
  typically ranges from 0.2% to 1.5% of assets
    • Open-end funds: a pool of funds collected from many investors for
      the purpose of investing in securities such as stocks, bonds, money
      market instruments, and similar assets
        • Shares are bought from and redeemed by the fund (unlimited no. of
          shares)
        • Prices are equal to NAV
        • Traded through investment companies
        • $10.1tn in 2010, $15tn in early 2014
    • Closed-end funds:
        •   Shares are bought and sold among investors
        •   Prices can differ from NAV
        •   Traded on organized exchanges
        •   $242bn in 2010
                                                                              16
Example: closed-end funds
        Fund                        NAV    Mrkt price    Prem/Disc %
        Adams Diversified Equity   15.45       13.48          -12.75
        Boulder Growth & Income    12.77       10.62          -16.84
        Central Securities Corp    31.99       26.13          -18.32
        Cohen & Steers CE Oppty    12.26       11.38            -7.18
                              Retrieved from WSJ (online) on November 23, 2018
    • Prem/Disc is defined as the percentage difference between the price
      and NAV
    • Why do all the funds trade at a discount?
                                                                                 17
More investment companies
    • Hedge funds: are managed much more aggressively than their
      mutual fund counterparts.
        • Lightly regulated by SEC: they are able to take speculative positions
          in derivative securities such as options, and have the ability to short
          sell stocks
        • $2tn in 2008, $3tn in 2015
    • Exchange-traded funds: a marketable security that tracks an
      index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund.
        • $1.71tn in 2011
        • More later
                                                                                    18
U.S. mutual funds by investment classification, 2014
                                  Assets ($bn)   Percent of total assets   Number of funds
     Equity funds
     Capital appreciation focus         1,725                   11.50%               1,329
     World/international                2,034                   13.50%               1,345
     Total return                       4,004                   26.70%               1,866
     Total equity funds                 7,764                   51.70%              4,540
     Bond funds
     Investment grade                   1,451                    9.70%                594
     High yield                           412                    2.70%                225
     World                                339                    2.30%                270
     Government                           239                    1.60%                214
     Multisector                          327                    2.20%                143
     Single-state municipal               145                    1.00%                331
     National municipal                   353                    2.40%                229
     Total bond funds                   3,265                   21.70%              2,006
     Hybrid (bond/stock) funds          1,270                    8.50%                606
     Money market funds
     Taxable                            2,448                   16.30%                382
     Tax-exempt                           271                    1.80%                173
     Total money market funds           2,718                  18.10%                 555
     TOTAL                             15,018                 100.00%               7,707
                                                                                             19
Costs of investing in mutual funds
   Fee structure (fixed when buying)
     • Front-end load
          • A commission when you buy the shares (might go to brokers)
     • Back-end load (known as “contingent deferred sales charge”)
          • A redemption fee when you sell the shares soon
     • Operating expenses (typically 0.2 − 2%)
          • Commissions, administration, management fees
          • Paid to investment managers
          • Deducted from the assets of the fund periodically
     • 12 b-1 Charges SEC allows funds to use fund assets to pay for
       distribution costs (not always: max. 1%)
          • Marketing and distribution costs
          • Most importantly: commissions to brokers
          • Assessed annually
                                                                         20
Different classes of fund shares: example
                                                    Class A   Class B   Class I
    Front-end load                                  5.75%a        0%       0%
    Back-end load                                       0%        1%      0%b
    12b-1 feesc                                      0.25%        1%       0%
    Expense Ratio                                     1.1%      1.1%     1.1%
    a: depending on size of fund
    b: depending on years until holdings are sold
    c: including service fee of 0.25%
     • Expense ratio = Annual expenses / Average NAV
     • Best alternative may depend on:
         • Amount invested
         • Expected holding period
     • E.g.: www.americanfunds.com/funds/prospectuses.htm
                                                                                  21
Fees and mutual fund returns
     • The rate of return in a mutual fund is measured as the increase or
       decrease in NAV plus income distributions such as dividends or
       distributed capital gains at the beginning of the investment period
     • If we denote the NAV at the start and end of the investment period
       as NAV0 and NAV1 , then
                             NAV1 − NAV0 + income and capital gain
          rate of return =
                                            NAV0
   Example: A fund has an initial NAV of $20 at the start of the month,
   makes income distributions of $0.15 and capital gains of $0.05, and ends
   the month with a NAV of $20.10. What is the monthly return?
                                                                              22
Fees and mutual fund returns
     • The rate of return in a mutual fund is measured as the increase or
       decrease in NAV plus income distributions such as dividends or
       distributed capital gains at the beginning of the investment period
     • If we denote the NAV at the start and end of the investment period
       as NAV0 and NAV1 , then
                             NAV1 − NAV0 + income and capital gain
          rate of return =
                                            NAV0
   Example: A fund has an initial NAV of $20 at the start of the month,
   makes income distributions of $0.15 and capital gains of $0.05, and ends
   the month with a NAV of $20.10. What is the monthly return?
                               $20.1 − $20 + $0.15 + $0.05
            rate of return =                               = 1.5%
                                           $20
                                                                              22
But we ignored commissions!
    • Consider a fund with $100m in assets at the start of the year and
      with 10m shares outstanding
    • The fund invests in a portfolio of stocks that increased in value by
      10%
    • The expense ratio, including 12b-1 fees, is 1%
    • What is the rate of return now?
                                                                             23
But we ignored commissions!
    • Consider a fund with $100m in assets at the start of the year and
      with 10m shares outstanding
    • The fund invests in a portfolio of stocks that increased in value by
      10%
    • The expense ratio, including 12b-1 fees, is 1%
    • What is the rate of return now?
   ⇒ The initial NAV is $100m/10m shares = $10 per share; in the
     absence of expenses, the NAV grows to $11 per share
   ⇒ The expense ratio is 1%, which lowers the NAV to $10.90, so the
     rate of return is only 9%
                                                                             23
Share classes: example
   You have $1,000 to invest, and consider buying shares from equity funds
     • Class A shares:
          • Front-end load 6%
     • Class B shares:
          • 12b-1 fee 0.5% annually
          • Back-end load of 5% which falls by 1% after each full year the
            investor holds the portfolio (until the fifth year)
     • Portfolio return net of operating expenses: 10% per year
     If you plan to sell after 4 full years, which shares should you choose?
                                                                               24
Share classes: example
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
                                                                               25
Share classes: example
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
     • After 4 years, portfolio value = $940 × 1.104 = $1, 376.25
                                                                               25
Share classes: example
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
     • After 4 years, portfolio value = $940 × 1.104 = $1, 376.25
     • Class B shares allow you to invest the full $1,000, but your
       investment performance net of 12b-1 fees will be only 9.5%, and you
       will pay a (5% − 4% =) 1% back-end load fee if you sell after 4 years
                                                                               25
Share classes: example
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
     • After 4 years, portfolio value = $940 × 1.104 = $1, 376.25
     • Class B shares allow you to invest the full $1,000, but your
       investment performance net of 12b-1 fees will be only 9.5%, and you
       will pay a (5% − 4% =) 1% back-end load fee if you sell after 4 years
     • Therefore, the portfolio value after 4 years will be
       $1, 000 × 1.0954 = $1, 437.66
     • And after paying the back-end load fee:
       $1, 437.66 × 0.99 = $1, 423.28 > $1, 376.25
                                                                               25
Share classes: example
   If you plan to sell after 15 full years, which shares should you choose?
                                                                              26
Share classes: example
   If you plan to sell after 15 full years, which shares should you choose?
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
                                                                               26
Share classes: example
   If you plan to sell after 15 full years, which shares should you choose?
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
     • After 15 years, portfolio value = $940 × 1.1015 = $3, 926.61
                                                                               26
Share classes: example
   If you plan to sell after 15 full years, which shares should you choose?
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
     • After 15 years, portfolio value = $940 × 1.1015 = $3, 926.61
     • Class B shares allow you to invest the full $1,000, but your
       investment performance net of 12b-1 fees will be only 9.5%
     • However, there is no back-end load in this case since the horizon is
       greater than 5 years
                                                                               26
Share classes: example
   If you plan to sell after 15 full years, which shares should you choose?
     • The initial investment in Class A shares is $940 net of the front-end
       load
     • After 15 years, portfolio value = $940 × 1.1015 = $3, 926.61
     • Class B shares allow you to invest the full $1,000, but your
       investment performance net of 12b-1 fees will be only 9.5%
     • However, there is no back-end load in this case since the horizon is
       greater than 5 years
     • Therefore, your portfolio value after 15 years will be
       $1, 000 × 1.09515 = $3, 901.32 < $3, 926.61
     • Class A shares are now the better option!
                                                                               26
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
   Potential advantages:
     • Trade continuously throughout the day
     • Can be sold short or purchased on margin
     • No redemptions, but large investors can exchange ETF shares for
       shares in the underlying portfolio
                     ⇒ links NAV to underlying asset value
     • Lower costs (expenses)
   Potential disadvantages:
     • Small deviations from NAV possible
     • Must pay a brokerage commission to buy an ETF
                                                                         27
Assets in ETFs
                 28
Summary
  This class:
    • Investment companies are helpful especially for small investors to
      create portfolios, but charge high fees
  Next class:
    • Performance of securities
    • Compounding
    • Nominal vs. real returns
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