Planned Refinery Outages in the United

States: Fourth-Quarter 2018

October 2018

Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Department of Energy

www.eia.gov Washington, DC 20585
This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and
analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are
independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views
in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy
or other federal agencies.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 i

Table of Contents
1. Preface ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
2. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2
3. Methodology: Refinery Modeling and Base Cases ................................................................................... 3
4. Recent Market Conditions ........................................................................................................................ 4
5. East Coast (PADD 1) Regional Outage Review .......................................................................................... 7
6. Midwest (PADD 2) Regional Outage Review........................................................................................... 11
7. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Regional Outage Review ........................................................................................ 15
8. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) Regional Outage Review .............................................................................. 19
9. West Coast (PADD 5) Regional Outage Review ...................................................................................... 23

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 ii

Tables
Table 1. East Coast (PADD 1) planned refinery capacity outages ................................................................. 8
Table 2. Midwest (PADD 2) planned refinery capacity outages ................................................................. 12
Table 3. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) planned refinery capacity outages ............................................................... 16
Table 4. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) planned refinery capacity outages ..................................................... 19
Table 5. West Coast (PADD 5) planned refinery capacity outages ............................................................. 23

Figures
Figure 1. U.S. refinery production base-case results vs. 2017 actual ........................................................... 4
Figure 2. East Coast (PADD 1) planned refinery capacity outages................................................................ 9
Figure 3. East Coast (PADD 1) production losses as a result of planned outages....................................... 10
Figure 4. East Coast (PADD 1) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present .......................................... 10
Figure 5. Midwest (PADD 2) planned refinery capacity outages ................................................................ 13
Figure 6. Midwest (PADD 2) production losses as a result of planned outages ......................................... 14
Figure 7. Midwest (PADD 2) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present ............................................. 14
Figure 8. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) planned refinery capacity outages.............................................................. 17
Figure 9. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) production losses as a result of planned outages....................................... 18
Figure 10. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present ........................................ 18
Figure 11. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) planned refinery capacity outages .................................................. 21
Figure 12. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) production losses as a result of planned outages ........................... 22
Figure 13. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present .............................. 22
Figure 14. West Coast (PADD 5) planned refinery capacity outages .......................................................... 25
Figure 15. West Coast (PADD 5) production losses as a result of planned outages ................................... 26
Figure 16. West Coast (PADD 5) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present....................................... 26

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 iii
 October 2018

1. Preface
In this report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) examines U.S. refinery outages planned
for October through December 2018 and the implications for available refinery production capacity;
petroleum product markets; and the supply of gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. This analysis is intended
to benefit market participants who may otherwise be unable to access this information.

Refinery outages result from both the planned shutdown of refinery units for maintenance and
upgrades as well as from the unplanned shutdowns from a variety of causes such as mechanical failure,
bad weather, power failures, fire, and flooding. Operators typically schedule planned maintenance when
refined petroleum product consumption is relatively low—in the fall and winter when the demand for
transportation fuels in the United States is lower.

This report analyzes the potential implications of planned shutdowns of various refinery units as
reported by Industrial Info Resources (IIR) using individual refinery models from PRISM software
developed by Baker & O’Brien, Inc. The IIR data used in this analysis are as of September 10, 2018. The
specific refinery units EIA analyzed are atmospheric crude distillation units (ACDU), fluidized catalytic
cracking units (FCCU), catalytic reforming units (CRU), hydrocracking units (HU), and coking units (CU).
Definitions of these units are available in the EIA glossary. A more detailed discussion of the
methodology is available in Section 3.

This report focuses on how planned refinery outages may affect the adequacy of regional gasoline,
diesel fuel, and jet fuel by region, using Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). 1

National supply and demand balances are insufficient to understand these dynamics across the United
States because they have very limited implications for the regional adequacy of petroleum product
supply. This limitation is the result of pipeline infrastructure, geography, and marine shipping
regulations that constrain the amount of product that can flow between different regions. In most
regions of the country, most petroleum products are supplied primarily by in-region refinery production.

Unplanned outages are, by definition, unexpected and widely variable. As a result, historical averages do
not provide good estimates of future unplanned outages. This report does not attempt to estimate
future unplanned outages.

1 A comprehensive explanation of PADDs is available on EIA.gov.

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 October 2018

2. Executive Summary
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) latest analysis of planned refinery outages for the
fourth quarter of 2018 finds that planned outages in the United States are not likely to cause a shortfall
in the supply of petroleum products—including gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel—relative to
expected demand, either nationally or within any U.S. region. EIA has reached this conclusion despite
the current high level of U.S. gasoline demand, which so far in 2018 has been close to the record high
seen in 2017.

EIA’s national and regional conclusions are the result of simulating regional monthly supply based on
assumptions about refinery operations. The report considers planned shutdowns of refinery units as
reported by Industrial Info Resources (IIR) and provides EIA's analysis of the implications of outages
affecting ACDU, FCCU, CRU, HU, and CU.

Regional supply and demand balances are more valuable than U.S. national balances because pipeline
infrastructure, geography, and marine shipping regulations constrain the amount of product that can
flow between regions in the United States. Barring unusually high unplanned outages, planned outages
that extend beyond schedule, or higher-than-expected demand, the supply of gasoline, jet fuel, and
distillate fuel will be adequate in all regions through December.

Planned refinery maintenance in the East Coast will be moderate in the fourth quarter of 2018, except
for outages as a result of maintenance on hydrocracking capacities in October, which will exceed 50% of
regional capacity. In October, planned maintenance for crude distillation capacity will reach a peak
average of 243,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 19% of regional capacity. Production losses associated with
planned maintenance could be offset by movements from other regions, by imports, and by drawing
down inventories.

Planned outages in the Midwest in the fourth quarter of 2018 will be moderate, except for crude
distillation and coking capacities in October and reforming capacity in October and November, which are
close to or exceed the previous 10-year maximum. Nevertheless, EIA expects supply of petroleum
products to be adequate to meet domestic demand in the Midwest during the fourth quarter.
Production losses from planned outages in October and November will average 235,000 b/d and
107,000 b/d in gasoline, 49,000 b/d and 24,000 b/d in jet fuel, and 164,000 b/d and 48,000 b/d in
distillate fuel, respectively.

Planned outages in the Gulf Coast in the fourth quarter will be light, and regional inventories appear to
be sufficient to offset lost production from those planned outages. More than half of the refining
capacity in the United States is located in the Gulf Coast region, 2 and as a result, the region produces far
more petroleum products than it consumes. The Gulf Coast’s surplus production supplies other U.S.
regions, mainly the East Coast and the Midwest, as well as international markets. EIA’s calculations
indicate that planned refinery outages in the Gulf Coast will result in light production losses in
petroleum products. Planned outages will result in production losses of 96,000 b/d in gasoline and

2The regions used in this report are the Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). A comprehensive explanation
of PADDs is available on EIA.gov.

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 October 2018

99,000 b/d in distillate fuel in October. For the fourth quarter, total estimated production loss as a
result of the planned outages accounts for 4.3% of existing gasoline inventory, 2.2% of jet fuel inventory,
and 8.4% of distillate inventory as of the week ending August 31, 2018. Regional inventories will likely be
sufficient to account for lost in-region production.

Planned refinery maintenance for the Rocky Mountain will be light in the fourth quarter. Because oil
consumption in the Rocky Mountain region is low compared with other parts of the country and
inventories of petroleum products are close to the 10-year average, the planned maintenance should
not affect product availability.

Planned outages in the West Coast in the fourth quarter will be moderate, no higher than 10% of
regional capacity, except for coking capacity in October, with outages of 11% of regional capacity. The
production losses from planned maintenance in October will average 86,000 b/d in gasoline, 24,000 b/d
in jet fuel, and 52,000 b/d in distillate fuel, respectively.

Although unanticipated events could result in some limitations, EIA’s review found no region in which
planned refinery outages are likely to lead to inadequate gasoline, distillate, or jet fuel supplies from
October through December. From October to December, total estimated production loss as a result of
the planned outages accounts for 9.9% of existing gasoline inventory, 13.4% of jet fuel inventory, and
10.5% of existing distillate inventory. Regional inventories will likely be sufficient to make up for lost in-
region production.

3. Methodology: Refinery Modeling and Base Cases

This report uses the methodology adopted in EIA’s February 2017 report that examines potential
production implications of refinery unit outages. EIA subscribes to PRISM software, developed by Baker
& O’Brien Inc., and uses this tool to simulate the shutdown of various refinery units and the subsequent
potential impact on regional petroleum supply.

PRISM includes detailed computer models of 118 of the 135 operating U.S. refineries that EIA reports
on. Each refinery model contains individual refinery unit simulations that can be manipulated to change
unit operations, including a complete shutdown of the unit. The remaining refinery units can be
modeled through operational changes, by use of inventoried or purchased feedstocks, and by changes in
refinery crude oil slates. EIA then simulates the resulting petroleum product output with units down for
planned maintenance. To assess production losses resulting from planned maintenance, however, these
results must be compared with a more normal mode of refinery operations, which requires EIA to also
simulate refinery base cases.

EIA developed a base case for each refinery in the PRISM database to represent high-utilization
operations using nonconfidential data with certain assumptions:

• Identify projected crude oil imports based on EIA’s historical Company Level Import data, which
identify source country, API gravity level, and sulfur level. Crude oils from these projected
sources are matched to crude oils in the PRISM database.
• Buy intermediate feedstocks as necessary to fill conversion units

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 October 2018

• Assign 90% utilization to key units, including crude distillation units, fluidized catalytic crackers,
hydrocrackers, cokers, and reformers
• Limit production of unfinished products

For verification, EIA combined the results of these base-case simulations by unit at the regional (PADD)
level and compared them with actual production levels that EIA reported in 2017, a year of very high
refinery utilization. The results from applying this model for gasoline and middle distillate (including jet
fuel, diesel, and heating oil) production are close to the 2017 actual data, and they appear to provide a
reasonable approximation of refinery production capability.

Figure 1. U.S. refinery production base-case results vs. 2017 actual

million barrels per day million barrels per day
gasoline jet fuel and distillate fuel
5 5
1.5% - percent difference
Model Model
4 (model versus actual) 4 (5.3%) - percent difference
Actual Actual (model versus actual)
3 3
1.2%
2 2
9.7% (4.7%)
1.5%
1 15.5% 1
(5.5%) 3.6%
(7.1%)
0 0
East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast Rocky West Coast East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast Rocky West Coast
(PADD 1) (PADD 2) (PADD 3) Mountains (PADD 5) (PADD 1) (PADD 2) (PADD 3) Mountains (PADD 5)
(PADD 4) (PADD 4)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

4. Recent Market Conditions

As of September 11, 2018, the price of North Sea Brent crude oil was $78.22 per barrel (b). In the
September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecast that Brent would average $73/b for all of
2018 and $74/b in 2019. Those prices are $19/b and $20/b higher than the 2017 average. The higher but
relatively stable prices for 2018 and 2019 reflect the tight crude oil market in 2018 followed by relatively
stable inventories.

EIA forecasts that global liquid fuels inventories will decrease by 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018
followed by an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2019. The inventory changes are largely driven by strong
global consumption and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) liquid fuels
production decreases that are offset by increases in U.S. production. The September 2018 STEO
forecasts total OPEC crude oil production to average 32.4 million b/d in 2018 and 32.2 million b/d in
2019. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 10.7 million b/d for all of 2018 and 11.5 million b/d
in 2019, which would both surpass the previous record of 9.64 million b/d set in 1970 and offset
declines in OPEC production.

Global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels is forecast in EIA’s September STEO to grow by
1.6 million b/d in 2018, reaching an average of 100.1 million b/d for the year. STEO forecasts that
consumption growth will average 1.5 million b/d in 2019, driven by the countries outside of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). EIA expected non-OECD consumption
growth to account for 1.2 million b/d and 1.1 million b/d of the global growth in 2018 and 2019,

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 October 2018

respectively. EIA expects India and China will be the largest contributors to non-OECD petroleum
consumption growth in 2018 and 2019.

With continued access to price-advantaged crude oil and natural gas, sophisticated upgrading
equipment, and a strategic location compared with demand centers in Latin America, U.S. refineries
have been running at or near record-high levels in 2018. Through June 2018, gross refinery inputs
averaged 17.1 million b/d, on pace to be the fifth consecutive year of record annual averages since EIA
began collecting data in 1985. Refinery production of gasoline and distillate has increased to supply
growing demand in global markets, contributing to a widening U.S. petroleum product trade surplus.

Refinery wholesale gasoline margins (the difference between the wholesale price of gasoline and the
price of Brent crude oil) averaged 40 cents per gallon (gal) in August. This level was lower than the 48
cents/gal average in August 2017, but it was only 4 cents/gal less than the previous five-year average for
August. Refinery wholesale gasoline margins averaged 40 cents/gal in 2017, which was relatively
unchanged from the 2016 level, but was 7 cents/gal higher than the previous five-year average. In the
September STEO, EIA forecast refinery wholesale gasoline margins to average 30 cents/gal in 2018 and
32 cents/gal in 2019.

Record-high U.S. refinery runs in 2018 contributed to high U.S. gasoline inventories, although high
distillate demand has driven inventories down and jet fuel is near the five-year average. Total gasoline
inventories (finished motor gasoline and motor gasoline blending components) remained higher than
the previous five-year average through the first half of 2018 and were 11 million barrels higher than the
previous five-year average of 229 million barrels. Distillate inventories were lower than the previous five
year average for five out of six months in the first half of 2018. In June, distillate inventories were 120
million barrels, which is nearly 17 million barrels lower than the previous five-year average. Jet fuel
stocks were higher than the previous five-year average for four months in the first half of 2018, and June
inventories ended slightly higher than the five-year average at nearly 41 million barrels.

Rising crude oil prices have led to increases in gasoline and distillate prices in recent months. In the
September STEO, EIA expected the retail price of regular gasoline to average $2.78/gal during the fourth
quarter of 2018, 23 cents/gal higher than at the same time last year. The gasoline price was forecast to
average $2.86/gal in 2018 and $2.93/gal in 2019. The diesel fuel retail price was expected to average
$3.24/gal in the fourth quarter of 2018, which was 39 cents/gal higher than at the same time last year.
The diesel price was forecast to average $3.17/gal in 2018 and $3.18/gal in 2019, driven higher primarily
by higher crude oil prices and growing global diesel demand. EIA expects rising diesel consumption to
contribute to elevated diesel refinery margins.

U.S. motor gasoline consumption was forecast to remain nearly flat from 2017 to 2018 at an average of
slightly more than 9.3 million b/d in EIA’s September STEO, a decrease of less than 10,000 b/d compared
with 2017 gasoline consumption. In 2019, U.S. motor gasoline consumption was forecast to increase by
20,000 b/d (0.2%). If EIA’s September STEO projected growth is realized, 2019 would be the highest level
of annual average U.S. gasoline consumption on record, slightly surpassing the previous record set in
2017.

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 October 2018

In the September STEO, U.S. distillate consumption was forecast to average more than 4.1 million b/d
during 2018, an increase of 205,000 b/d from 2017 levels. U.S. distillate fuel consumption growth was
forecast to continue in 2019 with expected annual average growth of 30,000 b/d (0.7%), resulting in
average consumption of nearly 4.2 million b/d. U.S. economic activity and industrial output are
projected to grow strongly in both 2018 and 2019, contributing to higher distillate use.

U.S. participation in the global petroleum products markets has increased steadily in the past several
years. Total U.S. product exports averaged 5.5 million b/d through the first six months of 2018, 332,000
b/d higher than during the same period in 2017. Exports generally act as a stabilizer in U.S. product
markets, similar to inventories, because this supply can be diverted to domestic markets. Because
petroleum products are traded globally, supplying overseas markets with product from economically-
efficient U.S. refineries also helps balance global product supply and demand, reducing potentially large
price increases, which in turn helps U.S. regions that rely on imports. Through the first six months of
2018, the U.S. East Coast imported an average of 0.9 million b/d of total gasoline and distillate.

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 October 2018

5. East Coast (PADD 1) Regional Outage Review

Planned refinery maintenance in the East Coast (PADD 1) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is significantly
lower than the previous 10-year maximum. The East Coast region includes all states in New England, the
Central Atlantic, and the Lower Atlantic.

The East Coast is structurally short of refinery capacity—regional consumption is greater than regional
production—so the region relies on transfers of petroleum products from other regions, primarily from
the Gulf Coast, and on imports from the actively traded Atlantic Basin market. As a result, refinery
outages in other parts of the country, and in the countries from which gasoline and distillate are
imported, can affect East Coast supply. Planned maintenance at refineries on the Gulf Coast should not
adversely affect supply of gasoline and distillate to the East Coast because some of the substantial
volumes of gasoline and distillate typically exported from the Gulf Coast can be diverted to domestic
markets if product balances tighten.

The East Coast has eight operable refineries with 1.3 million barrels per stream day 3 (b/sd) of
atmospheric crude distillation capacity, 0.5 million b/sd of fluidized catalytic cracking capacity, 0.3
million b/sd of catalytic reforming capacity, 45,000 b/sd of hydrocracking capacity, and 82,000 b/sd of
coking capacity.

Maintenance for crude distillation capacity in October is planned to average 243,000 b/d, or 19% of
regional capacity. Maintenance for fluidized catalytic cracking capacity in October is planned to average
50,000 b/d, or 10% of regional capacity. Maintenance for reforming capacity in October and November
is planned to average 49,000 b/d and 54,000 b/d, or 18% and 20% of regional capacity, respectively.
Maintenance for hydrocracking capacity in October and November is planned to average 24,000 b/d and
9,000 b/d, or 53% and 19% of regional capacity, respectively. Maintenance for coking capacity in
October is planned to average 20,000 b/d, or 25% of regional capacity (Table 1, Figure 2).

3Stream-day capacity is the maximum number of barrels of input that a distillation facility can process within a 24-hour period
when running at full capacity under optimal crude oil and product slate conditions with no allowance for downtime. Barrels per
calendar day is a measure of the amount of input that a distillation unit can process in a 24-hour period under usual operating
conditions. Barrels per calendar day takes into account both planned and unplanned maintenance. Stream-day capacity is
typically about 6% higher than calendar-day capacity.

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 October 2018

Table 1. East Coast (PADD 1) planned refinery capacity outages

Atmospheric crude
distillation
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 243 0 62 19% 0%
November 74 101 104 6% 7%
December 0 174 90 0% 13%

Fluidized catalytic cracking

as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 50 0 36 10% 0%
November 18 0 28 4% 0%
December 0 0 16 0% 0%

Reforming
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 49 0 16 18% 0%
November 54 0 18 20% 0%
December 1 0 22 0% 0%

Hydrocracking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 24 0 7 53% 0%
November 9 0 3 19% 0%
December 0 0 4 0% 0%

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 8

 October 2018

Coking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 20 0 10 25% 0%
November 0 0 11 0% 0%
December 0 0 11 0% 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

Figure 2. East Coast (PADD 1) planned refinery capacity outages

thousand barrels per day

Crude distillation Fluidized catalytic cracking

500 300
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
400 2017 2018
250
2017 2018
300 200
150
200
100
100 50
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Reforming Hydrocracking
150 50
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
125 40
2017 2018 2017 2018
100
30
75
20
50
25 10
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Coking
100
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
80 2017 2018
60
40
20
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 9

 October 2018

In October and November, EIA projects average losses as a result of planned outages to be 89,000 b/d
and 60,000 b/d in gasoline, 46,000 b/d and 15,000 b/d in jet fuel, and 27,000 b/d and 8,000 b/d in
distillate fuel, respectively (Figure 3).

Figure 3. East Coast (PADD 1) production losses as a result of planned outages

thousand barrels per day
180

160
distillate
140
jet fuel
120
gasoline
100

80

60

40

20

0
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

EIA’s total estimated production losses in gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel as a result of planned
outages account for 7.0%, 17.2%, and 2.5%, respectively, of existing regional inventories as of August 31
(Figure 4). These levels suggest that regional inventories will likely be sufficient to account for lost in-
region production.

Figure 4. East Coast (PADD 1) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present

10-yr range 10-yr avg 2017 2018
gasoline jet fuel distillate fuel
million barrels million barrels million barrels
80 15 80
72 13 70
64 11 60
50
56 9
40
48 7 30
40 5 20
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 31, 2018

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 October 2018

6. Midwest (PADD 2) Regional Outage Review

Planned outages in the Midwest region (PADD 2) in the fourth quarter of 2018 are moderate, except for
crude distillation, reforming, and coking capacities in October. Nevertheless, supply of petroleum
products is likely to be adequate to meet domestic demand in the Midwest during the fourth quarter.
The Midwest region includes North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa,
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Midwest refineries produce most of the gasoline and distillate fuel consumed in the region, particularly
during the winter months when gasoline demand is seasonally lower. The Midwest also receives
supplies from other regions, primarily from the Gulf Coast. Planned Gulf Coast refinery maintenance
should not affect the supply of gasoline and distillate available to the Midwest.

The Midwest has 27 operable refineries with combined atmospheric crude distillation capacity of 4.3
million b/sd, fluidized catalytic cracking capacity of 1.4 million b/sd, catalytic reforming capacity of 0.9
million b/sd, hydrocracking capacity of 0.4 million b/sd, and coking capacity of 0.6 million b/sd.

Inventories can act as sources of supplemental supply during outages. Supplemental supply into the
Midwest from the Gulf Coast should also be available if needed. However, the time required for
resupply to reach the Midwest from the Gulf Coast varies considerably across the region because of the
geographic size of the Midwest. Resupply can reach Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri from the Gulf Coast
within 7–10 days, but it may take close to 30 days to reach the northernmost states at the end of the
supply line. As a result, significant unplanned outages in the northernmost states are more likely to lead
to supply disruptions.

Refiners have moderate refinery maintenance planned in the Midwest in the fourth quarter, except for
crude distillation and coking capacities in October and reforming capacity in October and November,
which is close to or exceeds the previous 10-year maximum. Maintenance for crude distillation capacity
in October is planned to average 768,000 b/d, or 18% of regional capacity. Maintenance for reforming
capacity in October is planned to average 129,000 b/d, or 14% of regional capacity. Maintenance for
coking capacity in October is planned to average 134,000 b/d, or 23% of regional capacity (Table 2,
Figure 5).

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 October 2018

Table 2. Midwest (PADD 2) planned refinery capacity outages

Atmospheric crude
distillation
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 768 519 303 18% 12%
November 301 123 162 7% 3%
December 0 0 60 0% 0%

Fluidized catalytic cracking

as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 93 199 149 7% 15%
November 16 50 64 1% 4%
December 0 0 4 0% 0%

Reforming
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 129 105 66 14% 12%
November 80 61 27 9% 7%
December 0 1 1 0% 0%

Hydrocracking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 11 10 42 3% 3%
November 0 1 15 0% 0%
December 0 0 0 0% 0%

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 12

 October 2018

Coking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 134 63 48 23% 11%
November 21 15 12 4% 3%
December 0 0 7 0% 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

Figure 5. Midwest (PADD 2) planned refinery capacity outages

thousand barrels per day
Crude distillation Fluidized catalytic cracking
1,000 300
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
800 250
2017 2018 2017 2018
200
600
150
400
100
200 50
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Reforming Hydrocracking
180 140
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
150 120
2017 2018 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
100
120 2017 2018
80
90
60
60 40
30 20
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Coking
180
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
150
2017 2018
120
90
60
30
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 13

 October 2018

EIA projects average losses as a result of planned outages in October and November to total 235,000 b/d
and 107,000 b/d in gasoline, 49,000 b/d and 24,000 b/d in jet fuel, and 164,000 b/d and 48,000 b/d in
distillate fuel, respectively (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Midwest (PADD 2) production losses as a result of planned outages

thousand barrels per day
500
distillate
450
jet fuel
400
gasoline
350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

EIA’s total estimated production losses in gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel as a result of planned
outages account for 19.8%, 28.7%, and 18.9%, respectively, of existing regional inventories as of August
31 (Figure 7). The regional inventories will likely be sufficient to account for lost in-region production.

Figure 7. Midwest (PADD 2) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present

10-yr range 10-yr avg 2017 2018
gasoline jet fuel distillate fuel
million barrels million barrels million barrels
65 10 40
60 9 36
55 8 32
50 7 28
45 6 24
40 5 20
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 31, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 14

 October 2018

7. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) Regional Outage Review

Planned outages in the Gulf Coast region (PADD 3) in the fourth quarter of 2018 will be light, and
regional inventories appear to be sufficient to offset lost production from those planned outages. The
Gulf Coast region includes Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and New Mexico.

The Gulf Coast region is the largest refining center in the United States and home to slightly more than
half of the country’s capacity. The Gulf Coast has 56 operable refineries with combined crude distillation
capacity totaling 10.4 million b/sd, fluidized catalytic cracking capacity of 3.1 million b/sd, catalytic
reforming capacity of 1.9 million b/sd, hydrocracking capacity of 1.4 million b/sd, and coking capacity of
1.6 million b/sd.

EIA groups data on refinery capacity in the Gulf Coast into five refining districts: New Mexico, Texas
Inland, Texas Gulf Coast, Louisiana Gulf Coast (which includes coastal portions of Mississippi and
Alabama), and North Louisiana-Arkansas (which includes northern Mississippi and Alabama). Regional
capacity is concentrated primarily in the Texas Gulf Coast and Louisiana Gulf Coast districts. These two
districts have 21 and 16 refineries, with 51% and 38% of regional crude distillation capacity, respectively.

The Gulf Coast region, which has far more refining capacity than is needed to meet the in-region product
demand, supplies substantial volumes of petroleum products to other U.S. regions, most notably the
East Coast and the Midwest, as well as to international markets.

Refiners have reported light planned maintenance in the Gulf Coast region in the fourth quarter with no
greater than 5% of regional capacities, which is significantly lower than the 10-year average levels,
except for coking capacities, in October (Table 3, Figure 8).

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 15

 October 2018

Table 3. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) planned refinery capacity outages

Atmospheric crude
distillation
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 232 508 529 2% 5%
November 32 281 200 0% 3%
December 3 25 62 0% 0%

Fluidized catalytic cracking

as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 137 133 233 4% 4%
November 26 149 146 1% 5%
December 0 12 42 0% 0%

Reforming
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 8 86 130 0% 5%
November 0 45 58 0% 2%
December 0 1 20 0% 0%

Hydrocracking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 50 53 97 4% 4%
November 17 4 45 1% 0%
December 0 0 7 0% 0%

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 16

 October 2018

Coking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 77 5 59 5% 0%
November 13 8 26 1% 0%
December 0 0 5 0% 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

Figure 8. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) planned refinery capacity outages

thousand barrels per day
Crude distillation Fluidized catalytic cracking
1,200 750
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
1,000 2017 2018 600
2017 2018
800 450
600
300
400
200 150
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Reforming Hydrocracking
350 300
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg 250
280 2017 2018 2017 2018
200
210
150
140
100
70 50
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Coking
350
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
280 2017 2018
210
140
70
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of August 14, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 17

 October 2018

EIA forecasts that planned refinery outages in the Gulf Coast will result in light production losses in
petroleum products. EIA’s expected average losses as a result of planned outages in October are 96,000
b/d in gasoline and 99,000 b/d in distillate fuel (Figure 9).

Figure 9. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) production losses as a result of planned outages

thousand barrels per day
250
distillate
jet fuel
200
gasoline

150

100

50

0
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

EIA’s total estimated production losses in gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel as a result of planned
outages account for 4.3%, 2.2%, and 8.4%, respectively, of existing regional inventories as of August 31
(Figure 10). The regional inventories will likely be sufficient to account for lost in-region production.

Figure 10. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present

10-yr range 10-yr avg 2017 2018

gasoline jet fuel distillate fuel
million barrels million barrels million barrels
90 20 55
18 50
80
45
16
70 40
14
35
60 12 30
50 10 25
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 31, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 18

 October 2018

8. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) Regional Outage Review

Planned refinery maintenance for the Rocky Mountain region (PADD 4) is going to be light in the fourth
quarter of 2018. The Rocky Mountain region includes Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.

Although refineries in the Rocky Mountain region supply most of the in-region gasoline and distillate
demand, the region does receive small volumes of products from refineries in the Midwest and the Gulf
Coast, which are possible sources of supplemental supply during a shortage. The Rocky Mountain region
has 15 operating refineries—the smallest refining capacity of any PADD region in the United States—
with combined atmospheric crude distillation capacity of 0.7 million b/sd, fluidized catalytic cracking
capacity of 0.2 million b/sd, catalytic reforming capacity of 0.1 million b/sd, hydrocracking capacity of
60,000 b/sd, and total coking capacity of 91,000 b/sd.

Because consumption in the Rocky Mountain region is low and inventories of petroleum products are
close to the 10-year average, the planned maintenance should not affect product availability.

Table 4. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) planned refinery capacity outages

Atmospheric crude
distillation
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 80 0 29 11% 0%
November 0 0 7 0% 0%
December 0 0 3 0% 0%

Fluidized catalytic cracking

as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 12 0 10 5% 0%
November 0 0 2 0% 0%
December 0 0 0 0% 0%

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 19

 October 2018

Reforming
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 0 0 6 0% 0%
November 0 0 3 0% 0%
December 0 0 0 0% 0%

Hydrocracking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 0 14 3 0% 23%
November 0 3 1 0% 4%
December 0 0 0 0% 0%

Coking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 5 0 3 6% 0%
November 0 0 0 0% 0%
December 0 0 0 0% 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 20

 October 2018

Figure 11. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) planned refinery capacity outages

thousand barrels per day

Crude distillation Fluidized catalytic cracking

120 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg 50
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
100 2017 2018 40 2017 2018
80
30
60
40 20
20 10
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Reforming Hydrocracking
35 20 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
30 2017 2018
2017 2018
15
25
20 10
15
10 5
5
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Coking
20 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
2017 2018
15

10

0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

EIA projects that planned refinery outages in the Rocky Mountain region will result in light production
losses in petroleum products. EIA expects average losses in October to total 18,000 b/d in gasoline and
13,000 b/d in distillate fuel (Figure 12).

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 21

 October 2018

Figure 12. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) production losses as a result of planned outages
thousand barrels per day
40
distillate
35
jet fuel
30
gasoline
25

20

15

10

0
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

EIA estimates that production losses from planned outages in the Rocky Mountain region will account
for 8.6% of regional gasoline inventories, 15.9% of jet fuel inventories, and 12.5% of distillate inventories
as of August 31 (Figure 13). The regional inventories will likely be sufficient to account for lost in-region
production.

Figure 13. Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present

10-yr range 10-yr avg 2017 2018
gasoline jet fuel distillate fuel
million barrels million barrels million barrels
9 1.0 5.0
0.9 4.5
8 0.8 4.0
7 0.7
3.5
0.6
0.5 3.0
6
0.4 2.5
5 0.3 2.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 31, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 22

 October 2018

9. West Coast (PADD 5) Regional Outage Review

Planned outages in the West Coast region (PADD 5) of refining capacity in the fourth quarter of 2018 will
be light. The West Coast includes California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Alaska, and Hawaii.

The West Coast has 29 operating refineries with combined crude distillation capacity of 3.0 million b/sd,
fluidized catalytic cracking capacity of 0.9 million b/sd, reforming capacity of 0.6 million b/sd,
hydrocracking capacity of 0.6 million b/sd, and coking capacity of 0.6 million b/sd.

California has 16 operating refineries (with 67% of West Coast crude distillation capacity) mostly
clustered in two refining centers. About 43% of California refinery capacity is in the San Francisco area,
and the remaining 57% is in the southern part of the state, primarily near Los Angeles. Washington has
22% of West Coast crude capacity, and all five of its refineries are near Puget Sound. Alaska has five
refineries, accounting for 6% of PADD 5 crude distillation capacity, and Hawaii has two operating
refineries, accounting for 5% of regional capacity.

Refiners are planning refinery maintenance close to the 10-year average in the West Coast region in the
fourth quarter, except for the coking capacity in October and November. Planned maintenance for
coking capacity is expected to average 65,000 b/d, or 11% of regional capacity, in October (Table 5,
Figure 14).

Table 5. West Coast (PADD 5) planned refinery capacity outages

Atmospheric crude
distillation
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 147 276 141 5% 9%
November 72 115 101 2% 4%
December 0 3 27 0% 0%

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 23

 October 2018

Fluidized catalytic cracking

as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 64 0 24 7% 0%
November 32 0 36 4% 0%
December 0 0 37 0% 0%

Reforming
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 9 30 31 2% 5%
November 4 27 28 1% 5%
December 0 15 8 0% 3%

Hydrocracking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 26 12 16 5% 2%
November 13 10 17 2% 2%
December 0 0 2 0% 0%

Coking
as a percentage of
thousand barrels per day capacity

Month 2008-17
2018 2017 average 2018 2017
planned planned planned planned planned
outages outages outages outages outages
October 65 80 42 11% 13%
November 39 27 22 7% 5%
December 0 3 5 0% 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of September 10, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 24

 October 2018

Figure 14. West Coast (PADD 5) planned refinery capacity outages

thousand barrels per day
Crude distillation Fluidized catalytic cracking
600 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
300
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
500 2017 2018
250 2017 2018
400 200
300 150
200 100
100 50
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Reforming Hydrocracking
150 180
2008-17 range 2008-17 avg 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg
120 150
2017 2018 2017 2018
120
90
90
60
60
30 30
0 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Coking

120 2008-17 range 2008-17 avg

100 2017 2018
80
60
40
20
0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, using IIR data as of August 14, 2018

EIA expects production losses in October and November as a result of planned refinery outages to peak
in January and February. EIA’s expected average losses in October and November are 86,000 b/d and
45,000 b/d in gasoline, 24,000 b/d and 13,000 b/d in jet fuel, and 52,000 b/d and 30,000 b/d in distillate
fuel (Figure 15) respectively.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 25

 October 2018

Figure 15. West Coast (PADD 5) production losses as a result of planned outages
thousand barrels per day
200
Distillate
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
150

100

50

0
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

As of August 31, West Coast petroleum products inventories were close to the previous 10-year average.
EIA’s total estimated forecast reduction of petroleum products resulting from planned outages accounts
for 14.2% of August 31 gasoline inventory, 12.6% of jet fuel inventory, and 20.0% of distillate fuel
inventory (Figure 16). The regional gasoline and distillate fuel inventories will likely be sufficient to
account for lost in-region production.

Figure 16. West Coast (PADD 5) petroleum product inventories, 2017–present

10-yr range 10-yr avg 2017 2018
gasoline jet fuel distillate fuel
million barrels million barrels million barrels
38 12 17
11
34 15
10
30 9 13
8
26 11
7
22 6 9
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 31, 2018

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Refinery Outages: Fourth Quarter 2018 26