Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election
VOCABULARY INTRODUCTION: For each of the following words research and provide a working definition. These words will
be used throughout the lesson.
Vocabulary Word Definition
a ballot completed and typically mailed in advance of an
Absentee Ballot election by a voter who is unable to be present at the polls.
statistical data relating to the population and particular groups
Demographics within it.
a body of people representing the states of the US, who formally
Electoral College cast votes for the election of the president and vice president.
necessary for (someone) as a duty or responsibility.
Incumbent
Someone who votes based of their own will, rather than
Independent Voters following a specific political party.
an amount (usually small) that is allowed for in case of
Margin of Error miscalculation or change of circumstances.
relating to the government or the public affairs of a country.
Political Polling
an outlying district of a city, especially a residential one.
Suburb
a US state where the two major political parties have similar
Swing State levels of support among voters, viewed as important in
determining the overall result of a presidential election.
the tossing of a coin to make a decision between two
Toss-Up alternatives.
Voter turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot
Voter Turnout in an election.
INTRODUCTION: View the following video clip and answer each of the questions listed below.
Video Clip: Predicting Swing States in the 2020 Election
It’s the ratings of states and what they’re electoral college votes
What is meant by race ratings? are leaning towards, typically finds out whether the state is
competitive or not.
How do the various race ratings compare to each other? Trump’s votes in both elections weren’t very high to begin with,
and they aren’t high this election either.
According to Kyle Kondik, what factors go into rating swing The popular vote, debates won/loss in those states, etc.
states during a presidential election?
What are the challenges with rating and predicting elections? Variable change.
APPLICATION: Complete the chart using the information in the video(s) and polling data from 270toWin. Make a prediction on
who you think will win and explain why.
State 2016 Results 2020 Polling Data Factors and Issues Who do you
Impacting the Outcome in think will win?
2020
Trump 49% Biden 49% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Arizona Hillary 45% Trump 46% Crisis
Trump 49% Biden 49% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Hillary 47% Trump 46% Crisis
Florida
Trump 47% Biden 50% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Hillary 47% Trump 44% Crisis
Michigan
Trump 45% Biden 49% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Hillary 48% Trump 44% Crisis
Nevada
Trump 47% Biden 53% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Hillary 47% Trump 42% Crisis
New Hampshire
Trump 50% Biden 48% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Hillary 46% Trump 47% Crisis
North Carolina
52% Biden 47% Corona Virus, Economic Trump
Ohio Hillary 43% Trump 48% Crisis
Trump 49% Biden 50% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Hillary 47% Trump 45% Crisis
Pennsylvania
Trump 48% Biden 52% Corona Virus, Economic Biden
Hillary 47% Trump 43% Crisis
Wisconsin
SIMULATION: Using the interactive map from 270toWin, use your predictions from the chart above to record your results.
Indicate the predicted winner on the map by clicking until it is either red or blue. Track how each state impacts the total tally at the
top. Record and analyze your results below.
RESULTS President Donald Trump Former Vice President Joe Biden
Predicted Electoral College Votes 253-415 votes
123-285 votes
Use specific examples from the videos and polling to explain why you believe that this candidate will win.
I predict Joe Biden will win based on charts and pollings in each state. So far Joe Biden is in the lead for electoral college votes and
if things stay how they are now, Joe Biden will win based on statistics.
Conclusion: Answer the following questions based on the videos and the electoral college map simulation.
What swing states would former Vice President Biden need to win the electoral college? How likely do you think
this is to occur?
Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, and Maine. I think it’s likely for Joe Biden to win in most of these swing states because
according to polling he’s already up in the percentiles against Donald Trump.
What states would President Trump need to win the electoral college? How likely do you think this is to occur?
He would need to win Florida, Pennsylvania, and basically every other swing state. I think this is unlikely to happen considering
each of those states are already preferring to vote for Biden, and the election is coming up very soon so there isn’t too much he
could do to win those swing states.
