Valuation Basics for Bankers
Valuation Basics for Bankers
CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEW
of Investment Banking Technical Training
In this chapter we will introduce the reader to some key, high-level concepts required to
understand valuation and how it’s done on Wall Street. We will cover three key topics:
But how are the valuation techniques actually constructed? When should which
technique be used? What are the basic building blocks required for them? We will find
more detailed answers to some of these questions in the next chapter. However first
we’re going to take a step back and explain some of the building blocks of these
valuation techniques so that they make sense when we later discuss them in technical
depth.
In this chapter, therefore, you will find a detailed overview of the core building blocks of
the valuation techniques used by investment bankers.
Enterprise Value must therefore account for all of the differences between Market Value
(remember, this figure is the Market Value of a company’s Equity or ownership) and the
Value of Operations (or Operating Value) of a Company.
Let’s start with a basic identity equation:
Enterprise Value =
Operating Value of a Company =
Net Value of all the Claims on the Company’s Assets (Excluding Excess
Cash)
This equation is simple enough. Assuming that the company is profitable, and that it’s
more valuable in operation than in liquidation (in other words, the company is worth
more money if it continues in business rather than stopping business and selling off the
assets to the highest bidders), the value of the company is equal to the value of its
productive operations. This value must also equal the value of all of the net claims
against the company’s assets, because these assets are being used to produce money for
these claimants, or stakeholders (assuming, of course, that these claims have been
valued correctly). The “Excluding Excess Cash” piece will be explained in a moment.
The net value of all the claims on a company’s assets can be broken down as follows:
Debt: Money that has been lent to the company by another person or institution.
Debt holders have a higher priority than equity holders on the claims of the
company’s assets and value, so they get paid first. In order to get to EV, we must add
Debt to the Market Value of the company’s Equity.
Cash: Money that is owned by the company—in other words, it’s sitting on the
company’s balance sheet. This money, assuming it is not required by the operations
of the business, could be used to pay off existing claimants, or stakeholders. (For
example, the cash could be used to pay off Debt; it could also be used to repurchase
outstanding shares in the company’s Equity.) Thus the higher the Cash balance a
company has, the less its operations must be worth. This concept is counterintuitive:
shouldn’t owning more cash be a good thing? Yes, in a sense it is—but assume for a
moment that a company’s Market Value (of Equity) is fixed at a certain dollar
amount. That value can be ascribed to only two sources: (1) the residual claim value
on a company’s operations after all other stakeholders have been paid off, and (2) the
value of the money on the company’s balance sheet. The higher (2) is, the lower (1) is,
and vice versa. Therefore, to get to EV, we must subtract Cash from the Market
Value of the company’s Equity. (This is one way of looking at it. In practice, Cash is
often subtracted from Debt to get an important statistic called Net Debt. Net Debt is
the value of the Debt once balance sheet Cash has, hypothetically, been used to pay
some of it off. Diagrams below will explain the different ways of conceptualizing this.)
Minority Interest: This is a tricky one. Corporations often have a Liability
account called Minority Interest (MI). This is a special accounting designation for a
specific scenario: when a Corporation owns most, but not all, of a subsidiary
company. If that is the case, the subsidiary company is consolidated entirely into the
Corporation’s financial statements, so that it would appear, at first glance, that the
Corporation does indeed own 100% of that subsidiary. In fact it does not, so this
Liability account is created to represent the value of the shares owned in the
subsidiary by other individuals or companies. (Similarly, there will be a
corresponding Minority Interest expense on the Income Statement for the
Corporation, representing the portion of value from the subsidiary’s operating results
that actually belongs to the other shareholders in the subsidiary.) Since this MI
represents the value of the partial ownership (by others) in this subsidiary, it should
be treated like Debt – that is, in order to get to EV, we must add Minority Interest to
the Market Value of the company’s Equity. (We should keep in mind, then, that this
EV statistic will include the entire value of the company’s subsidiary, even though
the Corporation itself does not own 100% of it.)
Preferred Equity: Despite the name, Preferred Equity primarily operates as
Debt, not Equity. It is junior to all other forms of Debt, but it is also senior to the
Equity (often called Common Equity or just “common.”) Often, Preferred Equity
can be converted to shares of Common Equity, hence the name. It may be convertible
to Common Equity but, until that time, it receives interest and is in line ahead of the
Common Equity in the capital structure, so it is “preferred” to the common shares. It
receives preferential treatment. Because Preferred Equity is actually primarily Debt
unless and until it is converted to Equity, we must add Preferred Equity to the
Market Value of the company’s (Common) Equity.
There is another way of looking at EV: core assets vs. non-core assets. Core assets are
used to generate profit for the business; non-core assets are things owned by the
business but not central to its money-generating operations.
In this sense, Cash on the Balance Sheet usually (at least for the most part) is non-core.
Unless it’s cash that the business needs to operate (such as dollar bills in the registers at
a retail operations), it is not being used to generate profit in the business operations.
That’s why it is stripped out in EV calculations. (Other non-core assets may be as well,
especially if they can be sold off for cash without harming the operations of the business.
For example, Real Estate and Commodities can often be sold without impacting the
Company’s cash-generating operations.)
Therefore Cash is (generally) a non-core asset. Other similar assets, such as Marketable
Securities, are simply ways of attempting to earn profit on that Cash, but are not core to
the company’s operations. These Cash-like assets can also be sold off, and should be
stripped out of the Net Debt Calculation.
Notice in this list that “Cash and Cash Equivalents” is a subtraction from the calculation
—Cash and Cash-like assets are thus a sort of “anti-Debt.” Debt can also come in several
different flavors, but on the Balance Sheet it’s almost always broken down into Short-
Term Debt and Long-Term Debt. This is because Short-Term Debt is coming due soon
(within less than a year), and thus must be paid off or refinanced in the near future. This
may be of interest if the company is having financial trouble—the due date on the near-
term Debt may trigger difficulties for the Company in terms of repayment. This type of
difficulty, which can end up being a crisis under the right circumstances, is called
a liquidity problem (or crisis).
Notice that in the first two examples, Enterprise Value is used. This is because Sales and
EBITDA generate profit/value that is available to all stakeholders. No compensation has
yet been taken out for non-Equity stakeholders. By contrast, Price/Earnings reflects the
Net Income for a company, which is computed after compensation for other
stakeholders has been removed (Interest Expense and Minority Interest). Therefore,
this profit/value is only available to Equity stakeholders.
In summary:
1. Forecast out a company’s Free Cash Flows for the next 5-10 years.
2. Calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).
3. Calculate the firm’s Terminal Value, or the future value of the firm assuming a
stable long-term growth rate.
4. Discount 5-year Free Cash Flows plus Terminal Value back to Year 0 (today) to
derive the Enterprise Value of the company.
Free Cash Flows are discounted back to Year 0 (today) to solve for Enterprise Value, as
displayed in this graphic:
PRECEDENT TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
1. Make transaction assumptions based on the purchase price, Debt interest rate,
etc.
2. Build the Sources & Uses table, where “Sources” lists how the transaction will
be financed and “Uses” lists the capital uses—i.e., where the “Sources” money will be
spent.
3. Adjust the Balance Sheet for the new Debt and Equity, and other transaction-
related adjustments.
4. Project out the three financial statements (usually 5 years) and determine how
much Debt is paid down each year.
5. Calculate exit value scenarios based on EBITDA multiples.
VALUATION TECHNIQUES
OVERVIEW
of Investment Banking Technical Training
Investment banks perform two basic, critical functions for the global marketplace. First,
investment banks act as intermediaries between those entities that demand capital (e.g.
corporations) and those that supply it (e.g. investors). This is mainly facilitated through
debt and equity offerings by companies. Second, investment banks advise corporations
on mergers & acquisitions (M&A), restructurings, and other major corporate actions.
The majority of investment banks perform these two functions, although there are
boutique investment banks that specialize in only one of the two areas (usually advisory
services for corporate actions like M&A).
In providing these services, an investment bank must determine the value of a company.
How does an investment bank determine what a company is worth? In this guide you
will find a detailed overview of the valuation techniques used by investment bankers to
facilitate these services that they provide.
How do bankers determine how much a company is worth—in other words, what
valuation techniques are typically used?
What are the advantages and disadvantages of each valuation technique,
and when should which technique be used?
These valuation techniques are easily the most commonly used, other than in valuations
for specific, niche industries such as oil & gas or metal mining (and even in those
industries, the aforementioned valuation techniques frequently come into play).
Different parts of the investment bank will use these core techniques for different needs
in different circumstances. Frequently, however, more than one technique will be used
in a given situation to provide different valuation estimates, with the concept being to
triangulate a company’s value by looking at it from multiple angels.
For example, M&A bankers are typically most interested in Transaction and
Comparables valuation for acquisition and divestiture. Equity Capital Markets (ECM)
bankers underwrite company shares in the public equity markets in advance of an initial
public offering (IPO) or secondary offering, and thus rely heavily on Comparables
valuation. Financial sponsors and leveraged finance groups will almost always value a
company based upon leveraged buyout (LBO) transaction assumptions, but will also
look at others. Also, in many cases, all of these groups will employ some degree of DCF
valuation analysis. These different divisions of an investment bank may come up with
similar valuation ranges using some subset of the techniques given, but will approach
this process often with entirely different goals in mind.
Thus all of these techniques are used routinely by investment banks, and for a banking
analyst, at least some degree of familiarity with all of these techniques must be achieved
in order for that analyst to be considered proficient at his or her job.
The analysis is best used when a minority (small, or non-controlling) stake in a company
is being acquired or a new issuance of equity is being considered (this also does not
cause a change in control). In these cases there is no control premium, i.e., there is no
value accrued by a change in control, wherein a new entity ends up owning all (or at
least the majority) of the voting interests in the business, which allows the owner to
control the company cleanly. With no change of control occurring, Comparable
Company analysis is usually the most relied-upon technique.
A DCF valuation attempts to get at the value of a company in the most direct manner
possible: a company’s worth is equal to the current value of the cash it will generate in
the future, and DCF is a framework for attempting to calculate exactly that. In this
respect, DCF is the most theoretically correct of all of the valuation methods because it
is the most precise.
However, this level of preciseness can be tricky. What DCFs gain in precision (giving an
exact estimate based on theory and computation), they often lose in accuracy (giving a
true indicator of the exact value of the company). DCFs are exceedingly difficult to get
right in practice, because they involve predicting future cash flows (and the value of
them, as determined by the discount rate), and all such predictions require
assumptions. The farther into the future we predict, the more difficult these projections
become. Any number of assumptions made in a DCF valuation can swing the value of
the company—sometimes quite significantly. Therefore, DCF valuations are typically
most useful and reliable in a company with highly stable and predictable cash flows,
such as an established Utility company.
Because DCFs are so difficult to “get perfect,” they are typically used to supplement
Comparable Companies Analysis and Precedent Transaction Analysis (discussed next).
The Precedent Transaction valuation technique is also generally fairly easy to perform.
It does require that the specifics of a prior acquisition/divestiture deal are known (price
per share, number of shares acquired or spun off, amount of debt assumed, etc.), but
this is usually the case if the target (acquired company) had publicly traded instruments
prior to the transaction. In some industries, however, relatively few truly comparable
M&A transactions have occurred (or the acquisitions were too small to have publicized
deal details), so the Precedent Transaction analysis maybe be difficult to conduct.
If the buyer acquires a majority stake in a company (or similarly, when a controlling
stake in a business is divested), a Precedent Transaction analysis is almost always the
theoretically correct Comparable Company analysis to perform. Why do we use
Precedent Transactions analysis in this scenario? Because when a majority stake is
purchased, the buyer assumes control of the acquired entity. By having control over the
business, the buyer has more flexibility and more options about how to create value for
the business, with less interference from other stakeholders. Therefore, when control is
transferred, a control premium is typically paid.
Precedent Transactions are designed to attempt to ascertain the difference between the
value of the comparable companies acquired in the past before the transaction
vs. after the transaction. (In other words, the analyst determines the difference between
the market value of the company before the transaction is announced vs. the amount
paid for the company in a control-transferring purchase.) This difference represents the
premium paid to acquire the controlling interest in the business. Thus when a change of
control is occurring, Precedent Transaction analysis should typically be one of the
valuation methods used.
We will detail the calculation process for Precedent Transaction analysis later in this
guide.
Another possible way to value a company is via LBO analysis. LBOs are typically used by
“financial sponsors” (private equity firms) who are looking to acquire companies
inexpensively in the hopes that they can be sold at a profit in several years. In order to
maximize returns from these investments, LBO firms generally try to use as much
borrowed capital (debt financing) as possible to fund the acquisition of the company,
thereby minimizing the amount of equity capital that the sponsor itself must invest
(equity financing). Assuming that the investment makes a profit, this debt leverage
maximizes the return achieved for the sponsors’ investors.
There are three possible approaches to take in running an LBO analysis for a target
company:
1. Assume a minimum required return for the financial sponsor plus an appropriate
debt/equity ratio, and from this impute a company value.
2. Assume a minimum required return for the financial sponsor plus an appropriate
company value, and from this impute the required debt/equity ratio.
3. Assume an appropriate debt/equity ratio and company value, and from this compute the
investment’s expected return.
Usually the first analysis is performed by investment bankers. If the value of the
company is unknown (as is usually the case), then the goal of the LBO exercise is to
determine that value by assuming an expected return for a private equity investor
(typically 20-30%) and a feasible capital structure, and from that, determining how
much the company could be sold for (and thereby still allow the financial sponsor to
achieve that required return). If the expected sale price/value of the company is known
(for example, if a bid on the company has been proposed), then the primary goal of
performing an LBO analysis is to determine the best possible returns scenario given that
value. (Bankers will often use LBO analysis to determine whether a higher valuation
from private equity investors is possible, again using the first analysis.)
LBO analysis can be quite complex to perform, especially as the model gets more and
more detailed. For example, different assumptions about the capital structure can be
made, with increasing layers of refinement, to the point where each individual
component of the capital structure is being modeled over time with a host of tranche-
specific assumptions and features. That said, a simple, standard LBO model with
generic, high-level assumptions can be put together fairly easily.
Check out our Private Equity Training Course for much more detail on conducting LBO
analysis.
Pro: Theoretically the most sound method if one is very confident in the projections and
assumptions, because DCF values the individual cash streams (the actual source of the
company’s value) directly.
Pro: DCF method is not heavily influenced by temporary market conditions or non-
economic factors.
Con: Valuation obtained is very sensitive to modeling assumptions—particularly growth
rate, profit margin, and discount rate assumptions—and as a result, different DCF analyses can
lead to wildly different valuations.
Con: DCF requires the forecasting of future performance, which is very subjective, and
most of the value of the company is usually derived from the “terminal value,” which is the set of
cash flows that occurs after the detailed projection period (and is therefore usually projected in a
very simple way).
There are three common, related terms used to describe the “value” of a company:
Market Value is almost always larger then Book Value for three primary reasons:
Market Value includes future growth expectations while Book Value does not.
Market Value includes brand value and company intangible assets.
Market Value includes value accrued by the company historically through wise
managerial decision making, while Book Value generally does not.
In other words, Book Value is a value arrived at for a company by simply following the
rules of standard accounting based on a company’s past transactions and operations,
while Market Value takes into account all information about a company’s operations,
including future expectations.
Market Value is calculated based on the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the
company’s current stock price.
Enterprise Value represents the total value of the firm and is found by adding the Net
Debt of a company to Market Value, where Net Debt is simply the company’s Debt
outstanding minus excess Cash on the company’s balance sheet.
Cash is subtracted out of Enterprise Value because excess Cash is considered a non-
operating asset. For example, that Cash often could be used to pay down part of the
company’s debt immediately, which reduces the Enterprise Value of the Company.
(Note that the definition of “excess cash” is somewhat loose, as it refers to cash that is
not needed to conduct the operations of the business; a simplifying assumption in most
cases is to count all Cash as excess Cash.)
Enterprise Value should be used for ratios and other calculations that measure the total
return to all capital holders (such as Revenue, Earnings Before Taxes (EBT); Earnings
Before Interest and Tax (EBIT); Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and
Amortization (EBITDA); Net Operating Profit After Tax; Operating Cash Flow; etc.),
whereas Equity Value should be used for ratios that measure the total return
to shareholders (such as Earnings/Net Income).
Here are a couple of simple examples of how to calculate Enterprise Value based on
information available for a company:
Enterprise Value = Market Value of Equity (1,000 × $10 = $10,000) + Debt ($5,000) –
Cash ($1,000) = $14,000.