Review

article: dr
mawra
anayat
Submitted to: dr
umer

natasha tirmizi MS 2
Since the beginning of the Cold War era, South Asia has been a conflict prone region with
modest movement towards support. The region includes larger states such as India, Pakistan and
Afghan, along with smaller states such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Instead of regionalism, security bond between India and Pakistan has defined the nature of the
region. Having fought three wars in the past in l948, l965 and l97l, India Pakistan bond has
somewhat stabilized due to both countries’ nuclear explosions in May 1998. Ever since the 9/11
attacks on the Pentagon in Washington and Twin Towers in New York, the US has been
involved in the war on terror in Afghan

The literature on South Asia can be divided into three categories. The first category comprises
history and sociopolitical dimension of South Asia. The second category stresses the security
dimension of South Asia. Its emphasis is on India-Pakistan security issues and on the conflict in
Afghan. The third category emphasizes peace, democracy, regionalism, human security and
gender issues in South Asia.

This paper stresses the new great game in South Asia and its implications for the regional
security theatre as well as for Pakistan’s security. Within this context, this paper is divided in the
following three sections: 1) The New Great Game in South Asia post 9/11; 2) The Regional
Theatre; and 3) Implications for Pakistan’s security

It argues that the major power rivalry in Central Asia has been extended to South Asia with Indo-
US tactical enterprise, US-Pakistan informal alliance in the war on terror, Pakistan China tactical
support and Sino-Russian strong support under the banner of Shanghai Support Organization
(SCO). This new great game and the US strong support for Indo-Afghan tactical enterprise at the
expense of Pakistan’s security would all have dire implications for matters of war and peace in
South Asia.

China, balance of power would continue in South Asia leading to regional strength. Many bonds
of South Asian states with the major powers, however, remain ambivalent. India has a strong
economic bond with China but tactical enterprise with the US to contain China. Pakistan has
tactical enterprise with China, while maintaining amicable relations with the US from post 9/11
to present. Pakistan’s relations with the US post 9/11, however, have remained uncertain due to
the Indo-US tactical enterprise, the US carrot and stick policy towards Pakistan in the war on
terror ‘US drone strikes inside Pakistani territory raising questions of violation of Pakistan’s
territory along with Haqqani’s interpretation that the US is unwilling to ‘accept the Pakistani
military’s vision of Pakistani preeminence in South Asia or equality with India

The US, nevertheless has its occurrence and military bases in place within Asia-Pacific region in
order to combat any threat to its. Most vitally, in South Asia, the US has a bond with three major
states in South Asia: India, Pakistan and Afghan. Moreover, the US has a strong occurrence in
the Indian Ocean: South Asia, Middle East, Southeast Asia and Australia. China has initiated
moves to have strong economic relations with all the above mentioned regions including
Australia. In South Asia, China has a strong tactical enterprise with Pakistan which would
certainly maintain balance of power in South Asia leading to regional strength

In the post 9/11 era, there has been a strong contest between the US and Chinese security
interests in South Asia. Regional organizations operating in Central Asia and South Asia have
also shown the intense competition between the major powers in Central Asia with SCO
representing Russian and Chinese interests in Central Asia and Economic Support Organization
(ECO) advocating the US and western interests in the region. South Asian Association for
Regional Support (SAARC) has included powerful observers such as the US, European Union
and China. The major powers have been strongly competing in Central Asia and viewing South
Asia as an vital geotactic prize to be won over.

This segment argues that the nature of security bonds between three very vital actors in South
Asia, Pakistan, India and Afghan, have defined the regional security theatre post 9/11 and would
do so more strongly in post 2014 scenario. Within this context, this section explores Pakistan-
India, Pakistan-Afghan, IndiaAfghan along with Pakistan-Afghan-India triangular relations post
9/11 including a conjecture on matters of peace and conflict in South Asia from post 9/11 to post
2014.

India-Pakistan relations have been complicated due to their geo-historical and tactical relations,
both of which are interconnected with each other. Historically, the genesis of the Kashmir
question rested in India’s defiance of both the geographical and demographic principals of
partition regarding around 562 princely states in the sub-continent. Kashmir, being
geographically contiguous to Pakistan as well as demographically being a Muslim majority area
was to form a part of Pakistan.

Pakistan-India composite dialogue which emerged in 1999 with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in
power in Pakistan and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, has had a checkered history.
From 2004-2013, the peace process has continued albeit with pauses due to certain events such
as November 2008 Mumbai blasts. So far, the composite dialogue has been unable to resolve the
Kashmir clash, which has been central for building fruitful support between India and Pakistan.

Another forum which offered prospects for peace in South Asia was SAARC. The Association
emerged in December 1985 with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives and Sri
Lanka as its members representing the phenomenon of regionalism in South Asia. SAARC could
not rise beyond the restrictions which the security bonds of its members imposed upon it.
Pakistani decision makers have feared that India and Afghan would gang up against Pakistan
whether the matter relates to economic, technical or water related issues. Within this very
context, the areas in support among SAARC members have largely remained socio-economic
and technical in nature. Unlike the ‘European Union’ (EU), fruitful economic support in the
shape of free trade, free movement of people, goods and services, the formation of common
market, a common customs union and a common currency could not be achieved.
In addition to Pakistan-India relations, Pakistan’s bond with Afghan is another area which has
cast a shadow over South Asian rapprochement. Historically, Pakistan and Afghan have shared a
love-hate bond without Afghan ever physically threatening Pakistan’s territorial integrity. India-
Afghan relations became more than amicable with the beginning of the US War on Terror in
South Asia post 9/11. With the terrorist attacks on the twin towers in New York and the
Pentagon on September 11, 2001, a new era began in Afghan-India relations.

To forge closer ties, Afghan’s President Hamid Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh have signed Agreement on Tactical Enterprise (ASP) on 4 October 2011 at New Delhi.
Most vitally, according to the agreement, India would provide training to National Security
Forces of Afghan along with providing all requisite light and heavy equipment to Afghan
including weapons.

The triangular bond between Pakistan, Afghan and India has been of a highly complex nature.
Ever since 9/11, the US occurrence in Afghan, the US deeper ties with the Northern alliance to
curtail the Taliban, the US-India tactical enterprise forged in 2005 along with the Indo Afghan
tactical enterprise further complicated Pakistan-Afghan-India triangular bond.

It was basically the US-India tactical enterprise coupled with the US influence with the Karzai
regime in Afghan, which enabled India to forge a tactical enterprise with Afghan further
complicating Pakistan-Afghan and Pakistan-India relations.

This section argues that the new great game in South Asia along with the developments in the
regional theatre would have vital consequences for Pakistan’s security especially after the US
partial exit from Afghan in 2014. There are three different yet equally viable scenarios which
explain the implications of conflict and support in South Asia for Pakistan’s security post 2014.

First, the developments in South Asia would benefit equally both India and Pakistan resulting in
the strength of Afghan post 2014. Both US-Indian tactical enterprise and Pakistan-China tactical
enterprise would bring about balance of power in South Asia resulting in India-Pakistan support
in bilateral trade as well as in transit trade to and from Afghan through Pakistan which would
benefit all the actors involved.

Second Is it likely that there may evolve security dilemma between Pakistan-India-Afghan
presenting Pakistan with a two front threat situation where the latter encounters India on both its
western and eastern borders. With Indo-US tactical enterprise, Indo-Afghan tactical
collaboration, Indian consulates in Afghan, India’s air base on Afghan Tajik border which
stations India’s MiG 29s, along with nine new US bases in Afghan, some of which would be
located close to Pak-Afghan border, Pakistan’s security at the tactical level would surely be
affected adversely. In addition to these factors, if the US decides to create Indian hegemony in
Afghan, then Pakistan and India could indulge in a proxy war in Afghan which would destabilize
the entire South Asian region. Given these situation, the corridor to Central Asian resources
would be lost to the South Asian states for decades to come.
Third According to this scenario, there would be both conflict and support in South Asia post
2014. It is likely for rival states to compete and cooperate simultaneously if statesmen are viewed
as playing on multiple chessboards at the same time. The ‘multiple chessboards view’ would
emphasize that like China and India, India and Pakistan would cooperate on the economic
chessboard but would clash on political and tactical chessboards post 2014. In the post 2014
environment, Pakistan, India and Afghan would have ample chances to collaborate on economic
issues such as trade, while they would clash over tactical and political issues such as Kashmir.